US - Economy in Recovery or just smoke and mirrors?

reply to post by LadySkadi


Many of these people could find jobs created by the retirement of the baby boom generation. I know my mom and several other relatives are on the verge of retirement.

Of course these retirements will also have an impact on the social security and medicaid problems. Seems like one problem after another keeps hitting us.

As for your thought on the bubble economy,

Molecular manufacturing and nanotechnology is akin to automated assembly lines. It will put more people out of work than it will create jobs. And much of that technology is in no way right around the corner. You're talking years and years down the road. A LOT could happen in a few years as the country and the world spirals down the road of economic catastrophe.

Also, consider this: in the past, the number of "middle" class was quite large, due in part to the number of manufacturing jobs available. Think of it as a "diamond" at the top, the ultra-rich and at the bottom, those in poverty. The vast number of American's fell in the middle. Today however, it's more like an hour-glass... the middle class has all but disappeared, and the numbers at the top and the bottom have grown. However, if you have managed to get yourself to the top of the hour-glass, you are making more money now, than ever before. The point, I guess, is to ensure that you are in the top half. So, one needs to pick the right industry with the right education to get there.

Originally posted by Zosynspiracy
Molecular manufacturing and nanotechnology is akin to automated assembly lines. It will put more people out of work than it will create jobs. And much of that technology is in no way right around the corner. You're talking years and years down the road. A LOT could happen in a few years as the country and the world spirals down the road of economic catastrophe.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/281ed09ddfb9.gif[/atsimg]

When the first PCs came out in the 70s everybody thought we would have paperless offices and that they would put secretaries and receptionists, book keepers and accountants etc out of work.

That clearly hasn't happened, Nobody back in the 70s would have ever dreamed of the computers and the Internet speeds we have now which really didn't start to grow until the 90s a full 20 years later after they were introduced.


Even if the economy goes south again the Nanotech revolution is on!
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e98d8b3c3564.gif[/atsimg]

[edit on 30-1-2010 by SLAYER69]

reply to post by jam321

Many of these people could find jobs created by the retirement of the baby boom generation.

Actually the BB retirement repercussion is THE major cloud on the economic horizon. Yes, the good news is that BBer jobs will become available to the Xers an Yers but they won't be the higher paying jobs anymore like they were relatively in the past.

The biggest problem will be the burden the BBers put on other workers with SS, medicare and other costs, obligations and entitlements associated with retirement. Bill Clinton's campaign slogan re Social Security... "Mend it, don't end it". It worked for Clinton but he kept SS exactly the same pyramid scheme which was/is destined to put major burdens on the post BB generations. Major mistake!

It always has required a larger younger generation to support the retiring generation because Congress always spends all of its social security tax receipts and then some. That's why the Obama spending spree and the increased spending associated with the HC bill are so ominous. This year and next is the start of the BB retirement burden for the US.

Where are we going to find the workers to pay for the BB retirements? The bottom of the pyramid must be fill by someone. Emigration anyone?

We will make it through as the US always does, but there will be some major political policy choices coming soon!





[edit on 31/1/10 by plumranch]

I just stumbled in the door so forgive me if it has been stated.

The feburary 8th issue of Forbes magazine's front cover is "The Global Debt Bomb: How It Could Ruin Your Life."

The jist is that there are a lot of states and countries that can't repay their debt. William Baldwin states in his "Sidelines" article that we are poised to see billions of dollars in corporate bonds sink in to default.

In 2009 over $421 Billion went in to the bond market. That is obviously split between municipal, federal, corporate, and other bonds. The question how much of that $421 Billion plus might be lost if corporate bonds start defaulting? What percentage of supposedly long term safe investments will be trounced? A lot of the over 40 crowd bought in to the bond market because it was the safe bet for retirement. A lot of college accounts are invested in bonds.

If California, Venezuela, and other governments default how much will the problem be multiplied? There are people out there betting that we will see another AIG sized bomb drop with in 18 to 30 months. A lot of people are wagering it will happen in 2010.

Now for the anecdotal evidence. The company my wife works for just cut another 1/3rd of their management staff in the last five monthes. The managers were offered a chance to stay on as part time employees with the pay cut to match.

Companies are cutting jobs still. The numbers might not be as high, but it still happens every day. The recovery may not be all smoke and mirrors. It is probably a lot closer to castles made of sand. Like Hendrix said "castles made of said fade in to the sea eventually."

[edit on 30-1-2010 by MikeNice81]

reply to post by MikeNice81


Thank you for that perspective.
Star for you.
Didn't Walmart just announce they were going to or have laid off another 10000?

This is an excellent thread and I am so glad this topic is being brought to light.

While there are some signs the economy has bounced back a little, the major problems that got us here in the first place have gotten worse.

My fear is that this is all a very temporary fix to a major problem and we are simply putting off the inevitable collapse of the US and EU financial systems.

How can all of this be summed up? CONFIDENCE.

This is a great ARTICLE I just cam across and I feel that it is more than apt to address this thread because it speaks to some of the well thought out points of the OP.

About the GDP...

First, over 60% (3.7%) of the growth came from inventory rebuilding, as opposed to just 0.7% in the third quarter. If you examine the numbers, you find that inventories had dropped below sales, so a buildup was needed. Increasing inventories add to GDP, while, counterintuitively, sales from inventory decrease GDP. Businesses are just adjusting to the New Normal level of sales. I expect further inventory build-up in the next two quarters, although not at this level, and then we level off the latter half of the year.

While rebuilding inventories is a very good thing, that growth will only continue if sales grow. Otherwise inventories will find the level of the New Normal and stop growing. And if you look at consumer spending in the data, you find that it actually declined in the 4th quarter, both annually and from the previous quarter. "Domestic demand" declined from 2.3% in the third quarter to only 1.7% in the fourth quarter. Part of that is clearly the absence of "Cash for Clunkers," but even so that is not a sign of economic strength.

Also, the article mentions that the Q3 GDP reports of '09 were revised AFTER they were initially release...the were revised downward to the tune of 30%.

On "confidence"...

"Perhaps more than anything else, failure to recognize the precariousness and fickleness of confidence-especially in cases in which large short-term debts need to be rolled over continuously-is the key factor that gives rise to the this-time-is-different syndrome. Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang!-confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits."

The fact is that asset markets (stocks) saw an abnormal comeback since March of '09. Yet, how is this possible with real unemployment numbers near %20? Well, the fact that $2 trillion dollars was offered up to the coffers at tax payers expense had a LOT to do with it.

But only a small amount of that money has actually been utilized, right?

RIGHT! The markets have not moved based on fundamentals, the have risen on the sheer "confidence" that a ton of money will be dropped into the system, and CHEAP too! With interest rates at %0 , banks can leverage the tax payer dollars to go into even riskier assets - which were the various INSANE modes of investment that put us into this collapse.

Imagine if families were able to pay bills on confidence -or if you or I could put gas into our car on "confidence".

The reality is that the US economy has become a giant Ponzi scheme, where money was made out of thin air and everybody got over leveraged by getting cheap credit.

Now we have to pay for all of that, and we just don't have the money...

I leave you with this chart (from the article) that pretty much says it all...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/65451f4df2e4.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by SLAYER69


Thank you for all of the information you've put in to this thread. I know it took a lot of time. Plus it really gives us the flip side of the common ATS theme.

I have heard that Wal Mart is going to lay off a number of employees. That isn't unusual for retail at this time of year. As they finish the holiday rush, and inventory, retail will let a lot of seasonal help go. I would be more worried if they were talking about previously permanent positions or managers.

I don't know all of the details. So maybe there is reason to be worried. I know a lot of my friends and familiars in retail have said Christmas was better but not what they needed.

I'm hoping some of the previous post were correct. I hope this is a cyclical readjustment. If the bond market gets hit, it will seriously undermind the worlds markets.

The consequences are beyond my understanding. It goes way beyond my micro and macro economics courses in college.

[edit on 31-1-2010 by MikeNice81]

reply to post by MikeNice81


Wal-mart isn't just getting rid of temps though.

One store I used to work for got rid of its marketing team. They are slashing employees and not replacing them.

What is confidence in relation to the economy?

It is a a belief that for the money or the time you put in, you will be rewarded materially.

Investors pump in money to start a biz, that human needs. They require workers, and jobs are created. When it succeeds, humans have their needs met, the investors get their due, the workers get paid, and with such money, they save some and spend some. Money circulates.

What is loss of confidence in relation to the economy?

Investors do not believe they will see a return on their investments and gives up or retire with their savings. No jobs are created. No spending. A cyclical effect starts till the last rich man savings end, and mankind starved to death.

What needs to be done, in order to survive?

1. Basic principle - money MUST circulate and not hoarded up.

2. No human can live on savings alone. It will eventually be used up in a matter of time or becomes worthless when mankind is dead. Therefore, investors and entreprenuers must not be satisfied with what they have, and must use their experience and skills to perform market research on needs of humanity and meet those needs so that they can keep afloat.

Humanity will always have needs, no matter what. It will meeting the needs that money will come forth. When a human is hungry, he will seek for food.

When he is thirsty, he will seek for water. When he is standing under the pouring rain or scorching sun, he will seek for shelter. Depending on the level of his financial standing, it will account for the level he will spend on such needs.

3. Workers can help those needs by working with entreprenuers for a fair renumeration.


And that is how a recovery will occur. Trillions by govts had already been spent to kick start industries. Those are REAL money, felt by companies and workers, not smoke and mirrors. As soon as you get a job, or continue to keep your job, you will see the money in your hands. Manufacturing and services are NOT ponzi schemes, for real products are made and do change hands.

Companies that do not do well, or do not serve human needs will collapse, fail and retrench workers. It is better they close down, so as not to waste resources, but allow the next better smarter entreprenuer to take over.

(t may be easier for an investor to play stock and shares, not for dividends, but for immeidate profit, but should this be allowed morally, a cause for our recent financial crisis? More so hedge and SWF funds by virtue of their immense size? Isnt it a Ponzi scheme, as often instead of products, bits and pieces papers are shuffled around, to the detriment of functioning companies and sweating workers?]

For example, if Wal mart fails, then it is not like no one else will supply groceries or stuff to humans. Another player will come along, for there is a chance to be profitable, if he had worked his research and marketing right.

There is no need for a big shop, but if it sell niche products to a niche group, it will survive. Earning billions is possible, but how many must suffer before you can earn such money? Isnt it better to have a couple of thousands, and be respected by the community?

If one does not have that confidence, or infect others with doom when there is none, then the economy will fall and taxpayers sacrifice would have been in vain....


[edit on 2-2-2010 by SeekerofTruth101]

reply to post by Jessicamsa


Thank you for that information. It really puts things in focus if Wal ~ Mart is laying off.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Computers have put A LOT of people out of work considering they can do the work of any number of individuals. They've also created a lot of jobs too. But technology is not going to save the US economy. Redistribution of wealth will. And the only difference between socialism/communism and capitalism is that the former allow redistribution of wealth by force and the latter allows redistribution of wealth by the free market. But we don't have capitalism in America. We have state corporatism which allows redistribution of wealthy by government i.e. force. The rich keep getting richer, the middle class gets squeezed between the rich and the poor. Lopsided distribution of wealth and prosperity has always been the downfall of many empires.

Originally posted by MikeNice81
reply to post by Jessicamsa

 

Thank you for that information. It really puts things in focus if Wal ~ Mart is laying off.

Yeah, I was working there until Christmas eve. They had told me when they hired me that if I did a good job that they'd keep me on after the holidays. I worked really hard, but they fired me anyway. And to add insult to it, they knew for weeks they weren't going to keep me, but lied anyway to me a week before my last official day that if a position came available before my last official day that they would offer it to me. A cashier spot was offered to a guy days later and it was never even mentioned to me. I found out from the guy. They knew they weren't going to keep me. They just wanted me to work as hard as I could to get all they could out of me before they fired me.

Out of all the temps, they kept the men and fired the women, although there were only a few of us. Keeping the men though was top priority for them. And they have been lying about why they got rid of me to my former co-workers, even though it should be confidential in the first place, saying that I refused to work anywhere but in apparel. That was a total lie. And it took three managers to sit in on this meeting against me, so it's three people against me. They're painting me like some psychotic, lazy good for nothing that demanded to be placed in a certain area. I am so ticked about that.

My ex-bf's relative was one of my bosses too, and I have no idea what my ex started telling people after he found out I was working there, but afterwards people started treating me like a lunatic. I overheard a conversation with the managers about having a conversation with him, but couldn't make out all that was said because the stupid loudspeaker kept going off making announcements. But he was the only person that could have been telling them that I had been his girlfriend, since I hadn't been seeing anyone else for several years, and that person is in another state. I wish I'd never met him.

I don't know what I'm going to do for income now. I've applied everywhere that I could, and they all turned me down.

Just stumbled in as well,

I saw a news headline this morning feb. 2nd, 2010 about the US deficit, we are trillions in debt, and we have never been this deep in debt, YET, for some reason the tarp what'cha ma call it, did not make us all the jobs it was suppose to, and now we as the People of America need to spend more tax dollars, (which we really do not have because of the trillion dollar debts) to fix a problem that was suppose to be already fixed with the tarp money. the President's excuse for the tarp not working is he and his advisors mis calculated the the seriousness of the state of the economy.

Still with me? Where are we getting this money from?

America, is Trillions of dollars in debt, and looking at the monkey bars and graphs it seems to just keep going up.

Ahem let me not get into the trade deficit.

So with saying all of that I am not really sure how we can say we are onto recovery. Its going to take forever and a day to make enough surplus each year to start spending trillions on our deficit. Did anyone hear me?

Not sure who we owe all that money to but ahem, I am sure they want their money... At what point in the deficit, does a country admit its failure?

I guess we do not have much of a choice but have the Government some how spend allot more of our tax dollars that we really do not have to make jobs.. Because well allot of people need jobs very badly.

God bless the Father's out there that have lost their jobs and have to pay child support, OH, but that is a even sadder and a more pathetic story. Just google some of that stuff, got men going to jail because they lost their job and can't pay their child support. But America, can have trillions of dollars in Debt and no conciquence.. All together now.. Dichotomy

The Child support thing is just one example. Not to bring family law into the spotlight here in the global meltdown section, but its an example, of what the heck.

In closing I have no idea, where our GDP, grew in 2009, Unfortunatly, no one is really trying to understand the theory associated with that statement..



Keep up the good work Slayer.

[edit on 2-2-2010 by Bicent76]

There are signs that Americans are getting their personal debt in order. We just have to look. By paying down their debt now they'll be able to purchase later.

From last year-FALL/WINTER-2009
Credit Card Debt Evaporating in U.S.; Down 13 percent in August

Credit card debt is quickly eroding in the U.S., a good sign for the American consumer's personal financial health.

U.S. consumer credit falls again, sending the global economy a message

Also, while paying down consumer debt -- particularly excessive debt -- is a good thing, the very fact of Americans getting their budgets in order will present another hurdle for the U.S. economic recovery.

That's because in addition to cutting debt, the U.S. economy needs at least selected consumers to spend in order to stimulate the economy. But simultaneously saving more while buying at a robust rate is a dilemma. There's scant economic theory to suggest a nation can successfully pull that trick off. If PIMCO Global Strategic Advisor Richard Clarida's analysis is correct, the "new normal" is a U.S. GDP growth rate in the recovery stage of about 2 percent -- far below the 5 percent to 7 percent rate the U.S. typically registers early in a recovery.

Economic Analysis: Without question, Americans remain in belt-tightening mode, something you'd expect during a recession, but this cycle's pronounced slump, with its large job losses and accompanying financial crisis, has taken economizing to levels not seen in decades. While Americans are bringing their debt down to more serviceable levels, they're also concerned about the U.S. economy's health -- a view that, historically, means delayed consumer purchases.

From this Year-2010
Credit card debt still falling

US consumers are still cutting their credit use unprecedentedly. Outstanding credit card debt is about $855bn, down from $980bn in 2008. Analysts see it falling another $80bn this year.

reply to post by SLAYER69


This started actually happening in the later part of last year. And mortgage payments were going the other way. So I wonder if anyone could tie that in to previous recessions and then you could get an "edge" of information if it indeed yield anything.

Here's a read for you.

What else can this mean, tempory jobs and all. www.abovetopsecret.com...

It is truly shocking that the so called intelligent on here are so ignorant of what is going on with a defining point when the US was officially taken over by the Global Elite in the early 1930's with the formation of the Private Company that would from then on guide the total collapse of ALL world economy's. They have been ultra successful to the point that ignorant people look to economists to tell them if they are better or worse of? I'm going to make it very simple for the children on here.

Has EVERY successive government in power from the above date put its people further and further in Debt to external Private companies (all the US people on here should at least get this one)?

That is the answer to the OP question.

p.s. It doesn't take much common sense to get the point?

p.p.s. Ok back to your Star gates, UFO's, 24, Desperate housewives ...............

Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs

During periods of American economic expansion in the 1950s, ’60s and ’70s, the number of private-sector jobs increased about 3.5 percent a year, according to an analysis of Labor Department data by Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a research firm. During expansions in the 1980s and ’90s, jobs grew just 2.4 percent annually. And during the last decade, job growth fell to 0.9 percent annually.

“The pace of job growth has been getting weaker in each expansion,” Mr. Achuthan said. “There is no indication that this pattern is about to change.”

and...

Traditionally, three sectors have led the way out of recession: automobiles, home building and banking. But auto companies have been shrinking because strapped households have less buying power. Home building is limited by fears about a glut of foreclosed properties. Banking is expanding, but this seems largely a function of government support that is being withdrawn.

At the same time, the continued bite of the financial crisis has crimped the flow of money to small businesses and new ventures, which tend to be major sources of new jobs. link - pg 2

I don't want to seem unsympathetic to the out of work, but it's time that people get serious about the future. It is very possible that (while recovery is likely to happen) it may not look or feel the same as before. There are no guarantees and to presume that jobs will return in the same numbers and in the same industries that were lost is like "walking on ice" and one is likely to fall through the cracks.

The safety net (unemployment ins.) is not set to run indefinitely and will not sustain those who are using it, long term. Many are about to be cut off. Those who are living this or facing this (which means all of us) need to consider our course and make adjustments.




[edit on 21-2-2010 by LadySkadi]