US - Economy in Recovery or just smoke and mirrors?

reply to post by SLAYER69


Rainbows, that might be the answer. I hear there is a pot of gold at the end of them. We all know gold is through the roof.

edit to add: I appreciate where where your coming from. America is great. Even if we fall, we can get back up!

[edit on 23-10-2009 by liveandletlive]

reply to post by SLAYER69

Hmmm, well there is a mixed holiday sales forecast. It suggests that retail may be flat lined or -1% end of year '09. Compare it to the -5.9% last year and it would seem that spending is actually going up (or it may just account for the dramatic drop in '08). I suppose flat lined is better than still falling...

reply to post by LadySkadi


Yes but what you have to understand is people are still shopping because of UNEMPLOYMENT! Trust me Americans are shopaholics. Even if they were dirt poor they'd still find a way to spend money. American consumerism is in no way reflective of the greater health of our economy. People really haven't been affected YET like they have been in the 30's. The government is doling out checks and money to everyone. Yeah there are tent cities, yeah people are losing jobs, yeah people are losing their homes. But prices haven't gone up all that much, especially when it comes to gas. Just wait, 2010 is going to be horrible. I see the US economy getting much worse. There might be a blip of sunshine this Xmas but after that it's all business as usual.

I heard a local radio show host touting the wonderful benefits of a falling dollar today. How it will create all this business in the US. I.e. tourism will go up, small businesses will be able to export more. Yadda yadda yadda. This guy seemed to forget that the US economy is based on consumption, 70% of it to be exact. The past 7 years of exponential growth had F'all to do with the rise and fall of the dollar and had everything to do with the rise and fall of the housing market and people using their homes as ATM's. That is what was responsible for all the conspicuous consumption. A rising and falling dollar will in no way bring back millions of jobs and all of a sudden put money back into the hands of consumers. JOBS is THE NUMBER ONE aspect of a strong economy. A capitalistic one at that. Sure we could go the route of Europe and live with a high unemployment rate...........but it wouldn't be pretty. Things are going to get worse, much worse.........or they morons on DC will throw us knee deep into another long, drawn out more deadly war.

reply to post by SLAYER69


I truly believe it's all BS.

Whether that is deliberate or simply down to the stupidity of people who should know better is debatable. I think it's a mixture.

A few days ago I saw Alistair Darling saying that things were improving, then today they released news that things are actually worse than they were predicting.

He followed this up by admitting that a lot of it is based on "confidence". Thereby, IMO, admitting that they are being deceitful in the hope of "convincing" the right people to pump money back in.

The you have the hacks reading data with blinkers on. They see spikes and translate it as "improvement" while forgetting that the government has pumped money in to inflate the system. What they are seeing is simply the absorption of that money, it's not an independent growth or genuine improvement. These people are paid a lot of money to assess such information, and they are failing at the first hurdle.

You also have to consider the huge chasm between "wall street" and "main street". A lot of these analysts follow the markets as though it's a religion. They believe that the market is implicitly connected to and reflective of the wider economy, and they are wrong.
The markets are driven by giant uber-corporations, far detached from the working economy we all deal with.
We (the people on the ground, in the street) haven't even finished feeling the damage of the initial collapse yet, we're probably about half way through, and yet they believe a rise in market confidence between the major players is indicative of the general economy!

It's all rubbish.

When you see them talking about the economy in "market" terms, switch off, they're not talking to you or I, they're talking to the major business players, trying to convince them to invest. None of the elected are following the real economy, they're responding to, supporting, and talking to the market players.

My question to every American and all of you is can you imagine how much worse our economy would be if the military industrial complex wasn't churning out bombs, bullets, and boots for the war effort? I mean we just heard on the news about the super fast Navy attack battleship or frigate or whatever. And we need to spend billions of dollars on that now WHY? The US is so far gone in so many aspects it's ridiculous. And people were laughing at me a few years back when I was reading Jerome Corsi's book on the NWO and the Amero/NAU. Looks like that is what is going to happen.

reply to post by detachedindividual


Yes very well said. Agree completely.

Originally posted by liveandletlive
The problem:

First-time homebuyers and investors are snapping up those homes and taking advantage of low mortgage rates. These buyers can also take advantage of a tax credit of 10 percent of the sales price, up to $8,000, if the sale is completed by the end of November.

The tax credit is so important to some buyers that they are adding a clause to their contracts, allowing them to back out if the sale doesn't close by Nov. 30. However, economists note that bargain-priced foreclosures and low mortgage rates are making a big contribution to the sales boom.

Like cash for clunkers, when the free money dries up, so do the buyers!

True. I sold Real estate for about 6 years back east in Baltimore.

There is the hidden bonus with new or used home sales. The buyer rarely stop there within 2 to 6 months they are back out there buying new furniture, appliances, accessories Etc.

Especially in the case of people buying existing homes. They start to fix up their new used homes. New carpeting, electrical, paint, drywall and plumbing work etc. kitchen and bath remodeling + other maintainance they want to get done.

We haven't seen the benefits of this yet.



[edit on 23-10-2009 by SLAYER69]

reply to post by SLAYER69


You don't understand.......ALL THE MONEY these new home owners are going to spend on these fancy televisions, carpet, etc. IS DEBT! That's the entire problem. Have you ever heard of the term "reinflating the bubble"? You think these people are going to go out and pay cash for all this stuff. No it's all going to be financed just like their house.

reply to post by Zosynspiracy


I understand people are frustrated.
However not everybody buys things on credit.

U.S. retail sales surge as economy gains strength

The Commerce Department said retail sales climbed 2.7 percent after declining 0.2 percent in July. It was the biggest monthly advance since January 2006 and well above expectations on Wall Street for a 2 percent gain.

"Retail sales show the recovery is here. This wasn't just autos, it wasn't just gasoline. This was the U.S. consumer getting out of their foxhole," said T.J. Marta, market strategist at Marta on the Markets in Scotch Plains, New Jersey. "This is indisputably a good number."

[edit on 23-10-2009 by SLAYER69]

Originally posted by Zosynspiracy
You don't understand.......ALL THE MONEY these new home owners are going to spend on these fancy televisions, carpet, etc. IS DEBT! That's the entire problem. Have you ever heard of the term "reinflating the bubble"? You think these people are going to go out and pay cash for all this stuff. No it's all going to be financed just like their house.

Lets look at that debt...

There are signs that Americans are getting their personal debt in order. We just have to look. By paying down their debt now they'll be able to purchase later.

Credit Card Debt Evaporating in U.S.; Down 13 percent in August

Credit card debt is quickly eroding in the U.S., a good sign for the American consumer's personal financial health.

U.S. consumer credit falls again, sending the global economy a message

Also, while paying down consumer debt -- particularly excessive debt -- is a good thing, the very fact of Americans getting their budgets in order will present another hurdle for the U.S. economic recovery.

That's because in addition to cutting debt, the U.S. economy needs at least selected consumers to spend in order to stimulate the economy. But simultaneously saving more while buying at a robust rate is a dilemma. There's scant economic theory to suggest a nation can successfully pull that trick off. If PIMCO Global Strategic Advisor Richard Clarida's analysis is correct, the "new normal" is a U.S. GDP growth rate in the recovery stage of about 2 percent -- far below the 5 percent to 7 percent rate the U.S. typically registers early in a recovery.

Economic Analysis: Without question, Americans remain in belt-tightening mode, something you'd expect during a recession, but this cycle's pronounced slump, with its large job losses and accompanying financial crisis, has taken economizing to levels not seen in decades. While Americans are bringing their debt down to more serviceable levels, they're also concerned about the U.S. economy's health -- a view that, historically, means delayed consumer purchases.

[edit on 23-10-2009 by SLAYER69]

reply to post by SLAYER69


You can post as many mainstream news articles as you want. It won't change anything, least of all my opinion friend. The US economy is in terrible shape........we didn't catch a cold that will go away in a week...........we've been diagnosed with stage IV cancer.

new to ats, but how can there be a recovery when every month the loss of jobs keeps growing? how can there be a recovery when the dollar bill keeps losing its worth throughout the world. yes sure the housing data looks good, but what happens when there is no longer a 8k tax rebate this january??? just saying. if things start getting better i am so for it, but hard to paint this picture when there are no jobs and you have cap and trade, health care plan around the corner, does Mcdonalds pay that well???

Originally posted by Zosynspiracy
reply to post by SLAYER69

 

You can post as many mainstream news articles as you want. It won't change anything, least of all my opinion friend.

Cool...

I'm not trying to change anybody's opinion. Just posting whats available.

Cheers.

reply to post by allprowolf


You may not be from the US but let me clue you into a little fact........American society for the most part is about IMAGE..........how you dress, what kind of car you drive, what college you went to, where you live, what kind of profession you are in, who your friends are, how expensive your cell phone is...........all this butterflies in the stomach talk of recovery is just that..........propping up an IMAGE. There's no substance behind it.

Originally posted by allprowolf
new to ats, but how can there be a recovery when every month the loss of jobs keeps growing? how can there be a recovery when the dollar bill keeps losing its worth throughout the world. yes sure the housing data looks good

U.S. Heads For Third Straight Jobless Recovery

The idea of a jobless recovery seemed strange to economists at first.

After most every modern recession, once the economy began expanding and gross domestic product rose again, employers began adding jobs a few months later.

Then came the recession of 1990-91. As that downturn ended, says economist Erica Groshen, statistics from the labor market didn't make sense. The economy was growing, but the jobs weren't coming back. "The real question was, 'Well, is some of the data wrong in some way?' " remembers Groshen, who works at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Sure enough, the data back then were correct. Unemployment continued to rise for another year after the economy stopped shrinking. The same pattern appeared after the recession of 2001.

Groshen asked the library to research the phenomenon. That led to an unsettling find: The first documented use of "jobless recovery" appears in The New York Times in the mid-1930s, in the Great Depression.

Definitely smoke and mirrors.

Look around. Do you see people's lives getting better? I DON'T. I see people struggling everywhere.

It's a farce.

Originally posted by David9176
Definitely smoke and mirrors.

Look around. Do you see people's lives getting better? I DON'T. I see people struggling everywhere.

It's a farce.

Hey Dave I hear your frustration.

I agree it has been bad. But sooner or later it has to hit bottom and start back up. Are we seeing the beginning of it now is all I'm asking. I'm not trying to blow sunshine up anybody's skirt here.

It's all horse crap and gunsmoke.

Lies Lies Lies.


Wait until the inflation really hits.
Then they will be crowing about the increasing value of American products.

Wait, what do we produce now?

Harleys and toilet paper, right?

Here is, among many others, one of the most convincing arguments.

Historically the market will gain an "x" percentage every 10 years.

Everytime in history when we have had 10 years (as this occurance now from 1999-2009) that we do not - the next ten years will make up for those losses and also gain you "x" percentage for that 10 years.

I believe it is 20% compounded every 10 years. But it could be something else, I am forgetting right now and do not want to misquote.

Either way as I have been continually saying, and you can check my sig. that this market right now is due for another hisotrical long tenure bull market.

Another way to think of it is, think about all the new tech. that comes out all the time. It comes out exponentially faster than we really can comprehend. 100 somes years years ago till now we went from candles to wireless internet on your iphone.

Think about the next 100 if we stay on this same pace. It is human nature to be bullish and want to outdue the next guy with your unique ideas. Thats why USA is currently still number one, we have the best thinking/artistic people in the world residing here.

Let china make all the bull# plastic dolls and cars they want. Its companies like Intel, Microsoft, and Google that drive the future, not Toyota. Our debt HISTORICALLY drives us FURTHER than any other country. EVERYONE buys OUR DEBT because IT IS BACKED BY THE FULL FAITH AND CREDIT OF THE US GOVERNEMNT.

Thats just one way to put all of this, but there are many others as well.

[edit on 23-10-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Here is, among many others, one of the most convincing arguments.

Historically the market will gain an "x" percentage every 10 years.

Everytime in history when we have had 10 years (as this occurance now from 1999-2009) that we do not - the next ten years will make up for those losses and also gain you "x" percentage for that 10 years.

I believe it is 20% compounded every 10 years. But it could be something else, I am forgetting right now and do not want to misquote.

Go back through the last 80 or 90 years and take note of all previous recessions. Every 8 to 12 years there is a contraction. Followed by growth beyond the previous height during the last expansion followed again by a contraction. [Rescission]

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