Fuzzy Math: Why Swine Flu Vaccines Don’t Add Up

If you have been having a problem or were on the fence about whether to take the Swine-flu shot this might be of great use to you.

Mike Adams
Natural News
September 1, 2009

Here’s a seventh grade word problem for you: If swine flu has infected one million people and killed 500, how many people might be expected to die if it infects 150 million people (assuming no major changes in the virus)? The correct answer, of course, is 75,000 people, and that’s within the range of the number of swine flu deaths now being publicly predicted by the White House.

But there’s another part to this word problem: How many vaccine shots and hand washings does it take to boost vitamin D levels in the average person.
The question, of course, makes no sense. Vaccine shots don’t boost vitamin D levels any more than eating pork infects you with swine flu. So why is the official advice on swine flu protection essentially limited to “wash your hands, get your vaccine shot and cough into your elbow?” (Seriously. I’m not making this up.)

The Associated Press has distilled swine flu advice to “10 things you need to know.” None of those ten things include boosting your nutrition, getting more vitamin D or taking anti-viral medicinal herbs. They do, however, include hilarious explanations like “If you develop breathing problems, pain in your chest, constant vomiting or a fever that keeps rising, go to an emergency room.”

Emergency room in a pandemic?

Whatever for? They don’t bother to mention that in a pandemic scenario that strikes you with constant vomiting, the entire emergency room is likely to be overrun with other people joining you in a hospital room vomit fest.

Nor do they mention some other important math: The very limited number of anti-viral medication courses available in the U.S. The last time I checked, that was roughly 50 million courses. If the U.S. population is roughly 300 million people, and there are 50 million courses of anti-viral meds available, how many Americans will have no access to those meds? (Ahem… 250 million people…)

Here’s an even more interesting brain buster for you: If each vaccine shot generates $25 in revenue for drug companies, and the U.S. government orders the production of 160 million vaccines, how much money is Big Pharma making off the pandemic? That answer is roughly $4 billion in net revenues.

But even that doesn’t count all the repeat business from the future victims who suffer neurological side effects from the vaccines and have to be institutionalized and subjected to high-dollar medical care for years on end. In all, a mass vaccination program could end up generating over ten billion dollars in revenues for drug companies.

These numbers just don’t add up

Now let’s look at some serious statistics: If one million people have already been infected with swine flu, and 500 have died, that’s a fatality rate of 1 out of 2000 people. Depending on which research you believe, vaccines might at most be credited with preventing 1% of flu deaths during any given flu season (and that’s being very generous to the vaccine). So here’s the question:

How many people have to be vaccinated with the new swine flu vaccine to save ONE life from a swine flu fatality?

(Notice, carefully, this question has never been asked in the mainstream media. That’s because the answer isn’t exactly what most people want to hear…)
This question is easy to answer, actually. If the vaccine were 100% effective (that is, they prevented every death that would have otherwise occurred), they could be credited with saving 1 life out of 2000, right? Because that’s the normal death rate for this particular virus (these figures are widely quoted by AP, Reuters and the White House, by the way).

But no vaccine is 100% effective. As I mentioned above, seasonal flu vaccines might — at a stretch — be credited with preventing 1% of the deaths that might otherwise have occurred. With this 1% effectiveness factor calculated back into the formula for swine flu (assuming the same 1% effectiveness factor), it turns out that you would have to vaccinate 200,000 people to save ONE life from swine flu.

That puts a whole new perspective on the vaccine push, doesn’t it? 200,000 vaccines costs taxpayers roughly $5,000,000, and it subjects 200,000 people to the potential side effects of these vaccines which have never been subjected to any long-term testing whatsoever.

It all begs the question: Is it really worth it?

Is it worth spending $5 million and exposing 200,000 people to potentially dangerous vaccine side effects in order to prevent ONE death from swine flu? And why isn’t anybody breaking down the numbers on this issue and providing a serious cost / benefit analysis as I’m doing here?

Let’s be generous to the vaccine…

Vaccine pushers might argue that the vaccine is far more than 1% effective at preventing swine flu deaths. In their wildest dreams, they might imagine a death reduction rate of, say, a wildly optimistic 10%. But even considering that, is it worth it? If the vaccine stops 10% of deaths that would have otherwise occurred, that still means you’d have to vaccinate 200,000 people to prevent the deaths of ten people.

I’m going to throw out a wild guess here and suggest that far more than 10 people will be killed by the vaccine itself, completely nullifying any net reduction in total deaths. Mathematically, you see, mass swine flu vaccinations make absolutely no sense given the very low rate of fatalities being observed right now.

Just do something!

Of course, public health policy is never based on sense. It’s based on politics. And the politics demand that “they DO something!” That’s what the public wants: Do something! It doesn’t matter if doing something is worse than doing nothing… they just want to see some action.

It’s the same story with breast cancer screenings (almost completely useless), prostate cancer screenings (now proven to be far more harmful than helpful) and of course ADHD screening tests (which are only designed to trick parents into drugging their kids). Much of western medicine, it turns out, is complete hokum. We would all be better off without the screenings and without the vaccinations altogether.

There’s a highly credible book on this subject by authors Gerald E. Markle and Frances B. McCrea. It’s called What if Medicine Disappeared? ( www.amazon.com...…)

This book argues quite persuasively (and with the citation of many convincing studies) that western medicine offers virtually no net gain in quality of life to the very people it claims to serve. Doctors, hospitals, vaccines and cancer clinics could all disappear tomorrow and most people would actually be far better off. Of course, no one disputes the value of having emergency rooms to handle acute trauma and accidents, but when it comes to preventive medicine and protecting quality of life, western medicine is a near-total failure.

When it comes to swine flu vaccines, any honest look at the math reveals that 200,000 people will have to be vaccinated with a largely untested experimental vaccine in order to prevent the death of one person (or ten people, if you really believe in vaccines). Remembering that more than one person in 200,000 will almost certainly be killed by the vaccine itself, it really makes you wonder: What’s the point of all this?

The point, of course, is to sell vaccines. It’s the one math problem that everybody understands: To make money, you have to sell a product, and there’s no better way to sell vaccines to 160 million people than to scare them into begging for injections that are statistically opposed their own self interests. But I suppose anything is possible in a country where state governments can punitively tax the poor by convincing them to play the lottery. People who play the lottery are very likely to be the same people getting vaccine shots: It’s like a lottery on your health, except that your odds of “winning” are far worse than your odds of winning something in a state lotto.

Let’s see: You have a 1 in 1 chance of being injected with foreign viral matter, and yet you only have a 1 in 200,000 chance of your life being saved by it.

Allow me to put this into perspective: You have a 40 times greater chance of being struck by lightning at some point in your life than having your life saved by the swine flu vaccine. (Source: National Weather Service statistics.)

Mathematically speaking, getting a swine flu injection and hoping it will save your life is more foolish than buying a lotto ticket with your last dollar and hoping you’ll scratch off a multi-million dollar winning ticket.

And buying a lotto ticket doesn’t risk the health of your nervous system, by the way. You can always earn back a buck, but restoring your nervous system after it’s attacked by a rogue vaccine can take years or decades. Some never recover. (Thousands died from the 1976 vaccines.)

Pop quiz: What’s the actual cost of vaccinating 160 million Americans with an unproven, experimental swine flu vaccine?

Answer: $1.6 billion plus countless victims with strange neurological disorders, comas and sudden death — all of which will be written off as “coincidence” by the vaccine pushers.

Free flu shots for the unemployed

As this article was about to go to press, I couldn’t help but notice a new announcement by CVS and Walgreens pharmacies. The powers that be are so desperate to get all Americans injected with this experimental vaccine that CVS and Walgreens are now offering free swine flu vaccine injections to anyone who doesn’t have a job!

That’s right: Just show up, prove you’re unemployed, and you get jabbed at no charge. (Who said losing your job didn’t have some benefits, huh?) Conspiracy theorists might suggest this is a clever way to clear the streets of “useless eaters.” Just lure the jobless into some experimental vaccine program, inject them and send them on their way. Next, will retailers start handing out free Soylent Green too?

So even if you have a hard time with math this puts it in plain english and gives you simple numbers to works with. And as you can see from this thread Swine-flu is actually designed for big pharm to make a ton of money off your fear of a weak virus.

If I wasn't already convinced that the vaccination was BS, that probably would have sold me on it. Great post, very useful info, and the numbers are wonderfully easy to swallow.

I really wouldn't be surprised if the last shot in the series of shots that you need for this one really did contain the RFID chip so they could more easily keep tabs on all the sheeple that got the shots and (by some miracle) survived.

How many shots is this series up to now, anyone? Last quote I heard was around the three to four mark...Starting to sound more and more like torture to me.

Maybe this revenue will help pay for this ludicrous health care system he is putting forth!

Give me swine flu or give me death! Screw the vaccine.

Last count i heard was 3 for the swine-flu and 1 for regular flue that you have to get BEFORE you get the 3 for swine-flu. So 4 at this moment.

reply to post by FritosBBQTwist


i would think he would have to make like 50+ swine-flu's to make the money he needs for "Obamadeathcare". But if they force everyone to take this shot around the world thats 6 billion times 3 at $25 a pop makes just about enough. hehe.

[edit on 1-9-2009 by Red Dawn 09]

I've been watching this pharm stock Novavax (NVAX) for several months now... they were around $1 then and was going up a little bit every day...

Today it jumped $1.72 to $7.79... still time to make some $$$$ .. More than 32 million shares changed hands by noon today, (50 million shares at close) compared with an average daily volume of about 6.4 million shares.

I actually think they had alot to do with the origin of this H1N1 virus.

They produce virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines and today:

"Novavax Inc. said Tuesday its 3-in-1 flu vaccine met its goal in a midstage clinical study, creating strong immune system responses to swine flu and two other strains of the sickness. Novavax plans to start a new midstage study in the fourth quarter involving elderly patients, and it is planning a late-stage study for 2010.

Novavax says its virus-like particle technology can make vaccines much faster than traditional methods, which could make a quick response to a pandemic flu strain. Its drugs are genetically engineered and then attach to immune cells, and the company says that process can be done in a few weeks."

Yahoo Finance Article

Fantastic article. Very clear and to the point. So who would waste their time getting several of these ? Star and flag!

Does kick you while your down come to mind? I mean how much money do they really need?!? Can they not leave us our wellbeing at the very least?? I can only laugh at most of the stuff they are rolling out. Much like the new BAILOUT for thr FDIC that is coming and going to step on the majority of people who just lost their homes.

Star, and Flag for a very important topic. I have no doubt that the vaccines will be continually billed as being in short supply, but that is a lie.

No doubt they are loaded with all sorts of "goody viruses", and the sales pitch is telling People they'll be lucky if there's enough.... Yet, it will magically continually be found, just enough each time.

So the vaccines are killers for sure, but what, or how are they gonna release first to scare People into them?

From what i have been reading and hearing they are aware they we the people are aware of the scare tactics. So i think the question is, when will they be able to pass a law to MAKE people take the shots?

reply to post by sanchoearlyjones


They have already been trying to scare people into them with all this hype about how horrible this flu will be. When every study that I have looked at thus far has stated that in the history of swine-flu it has still never gotten worse then the actual flu itself.

One of the last articles I saw was saying something about making it required to take the shots or you get fined up to $1000 a day for every day you refuse it and...AND...you get 30 days in jail for every missed day as well. (I can try to find it if people would like)

I saw one article that made it sound as if you could loose your job for not getting the vaccination.

Sounds like fear mongering at it's finest to me...

I don't care what they treaten...there is no way that anyone in my family is going get this vaccination if I can help it!

reply to post by psychekitty


And were do they think we will be able to come up with this $1000/30 days in jail? Per day even eh? And let me guess, Becouse all the jails are allready overfull and they are letting sex offenders out early they will just fine you more instead of serve out your 30 days so you pay more.

They are not fining you $1000 per day for NOT taking the vaccine.

They cannot FORCE you to take the vaccine. If they jab you against your will thats attempted murder and you can sue the state.

If you are ordered by a judge to be quarantined in your house (or other location) and you dis-obey that order (and goto work or go shopping for that day) and they find out you are fined $1000 for that day.

If you dis-obey and go to work all week for 5 days thats $5000 or jail time.

It's not $1000 a day you don't take the vaccine and auto jail time if you don't.

They can't force you to get jabbed, but they sure as hell can make your life miserable unless you basically work at home on the internet and can get your food delivered.

reply to post by psychekitty


I agree with what You say, no doubt. What they will do is make it next to impossible to operate, or live Your normal everyday life without getting it....

Reward the sheeple who take the kill vaccines by letting them move through road blocks, ride buses, go into shopping centers, etc.... So they can pass on the now highly contagious stuff they were vaccinated with.

The rest of us, the govt. will try locking down, and punishing by imo more civil means....

It's really a sick situation, and People need to stand up!

Just wanted to put this out there, I talk to a man that works in the pharmaceutical department and he was looking to get employed at a new facility in NC. I believe he said NC, but it was a swine flu vaccine facility, so Im guessing they just make swine flu vaccines. He said it was like an 800 million dolor project that was granted from the government. he said there was like a thousand empoyees and the place was freakin huuuuge. But I guess its not done but they are working towards it getting fully finished

Just wanted to share this information, however I can't say this is 100% true I cant find any facts based on this on the internet.

[edit on 2-9-2009 by tempesillest]

Wouldn't it be ironic if the swine flu was actually quite serious? More serious than most of us on ATS predict? Wouldn't it be ironic if thousands of people actually DIE from the swine flu because they DIDN'T take the vaccine? I'd laugh...but then I'd die with everyone else.

Also, the side effects of the vaccine depends on the person. Everyone has a different reaction. I'm not sure if I'm going to get it. Most likely not.

amazing article S&F

reply to post by Red Dawn 09


I have given you a Star & Flag for a great post with great stats but i just want to say that to me it seems like Swine Flu is disappearing from the public eye I'm in England and i'm not seeing anything about it on the web now.... not on daily newspaper websites anyway.... it's either left our shores or it's waiting till winter to strike!

As far as I know, washing your hands is the best way to stop germs from spreading.

coldflu.about.com...

So... why this guy is knocking that suggestion from the government is beyond me. The rest I generally agree with.

Tamifl u and Children

The researchers also found that using anti-virals preventatively had little effect - reducing transmission of flu by 8%.

This means 13 children would have to be treated to prevent one additional case of the flu.

However, anti-virals could reduce symptoms by between half a day and one day.

Vaccines and Thiomersal (you know - mercury)

Remembering 1976 and more

I almost forgot the most important:

Legal immunity for vaccine makers

The document signed by Sebelius last month grants immunity to those making a swine flu vaccine, under the provisions of a 2006 law for public health emergencies. It allows for a compensation fund, if needed.

[edit on 9/2/09 by Angry Danish]