Evidence NASA may be looking for Nibiru

Originally posted by Phage

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

 

it is unacceptable to state as a fact that "It will be able to detect asteroids as small as 100 meters. Some of them. It will be able to detect most of the asteroids which are larger than 3 km." You don't know this and they certainly did not say this.

That is exactly what they said.

And they said it again in the paper (I linked in my earlier post) submitted during the Planetary Defense Conference of 2007 written by an Astrophysicist, a NASA scientist, and Astronomers.

As I said above, they hope to detect 150 meter objects at 0.7 AU distance -- depending on the object's albedo (reflectivity).

Here is that link again:
www.aero.org...


[edit on 9/1/2009 by Soylent Green Is People]

Originally posted by Soylent Green Is People
reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

 

- It was originally designed to look at far-off, medium-distance, and near objects in the infrared spectrum. Some of the far-off objects are infrared galaxies. Some of the medium-distance objects are other stars, dust clouds, and brown dwarfs. Some of the potential near objects are possible brown dwarfs in our solar system's neighborhood (and perhaps brown dwarfs closer than 4 LY) and solar system objects.

- It was also originally designed to look at Asteroid Belt Objects 3 km and larger.

Correct.

- NASA decided to add a Near Earth Object (NEO) component to the original mission. They think can detect 400 NEOs per year, possibly as small as 150 meters in diameter for objects 0.7 AU in distance from Earth. Of course the farther way the object is, the bigger it needs to be if it is to be detected.
Source:
www.aero.org...

The full quote is: Known NEOs that cross the 90 degree elongation circle during the WISE mission will be measured at 12 microns, and the SNR will be good enough to determine radiometric diameters and albedos for objects down to 150 meter diameter at 0.7 AU distance. For new discoveries the WISE survey will provide a sample of asteroids thatis not biased toward high albedo objects.

Known NEOs - the ones we already know about. That's not the mandate. The mandate is to discover and track new NEOs with sizes as small as ~100 meters.

Note: The stated nominal mission of seeing 3 km objects in the asteroid belt is not the same as saying what WISE's capabilities are for detecting NEO (i.e. closer than the Asteroid belt).

You are correct. But look at your linked report on page 5 figure 8. Your report states that WISE cannot detect NEOs measuring 0.15 km. It is at ZERO percent!

...By the way, perhaps WISE could detect objects in the Asteroid Belt smaller than 3 km in diameter, but detection is not simply up to the hardware itself -- it also takes teams of people going through data on Earth (which costs money). Perhaps the nominal mission only called for a budget that would allow those people to find relatively large Asteroid Belt objects (such as 3 km).

Nope. According to your report, WISE doesn't have the capability to discover new NEOs the size that NASA has been mandated to discover and track.





[edit on 1/9/2009 by Iamonlyhuman]

reply to post by Ophiuchus 13


Not sure, but it looks like it's a comet.

The dark area at the front/center could be the nucleus, and the glowing area to the sides and rear could be the coma...or gas and vapour 'tail'.

Curious though, that it appears that another, similar sized object had already passed through the area of the first object.

Look at the area to the left of the bright object/comet, it appears there was a twin object, preceding the bright one. There is what appears to be the trail or coma of another possible comet (or whatever), curving up from the bottom of the frame, follows a sharp left hand curve, and exits the image, middle left. The bright object looks to be leaving a very similar trail.

The sharpness of the curve makes me think they are quite small objects, rather than planets or so on, as they are not orbiting the sun.

But who knows...i'm no expert, so i don't. Perhaps they are orbiting us.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

 

Something along the lines of: Detect most asteroids larger than 0.15 km. But they didn't, did they... why not?

Because they cannot detect most asteroids larger than .15km. But they can identify hundreds of them.

Publicity, exactly. PR. What sounds better?
1) We can find a small percent of the hundreds of thousand of small asteroids.
2) We can find most of the large asteroids that would destroy the Earth if they hit it.

t is unacceptable to state as a fact that "It will be able to detect asteroids as small as 100 meters. Some of them. It will be able to detect most of the asteroids which are larger than 3 km." You don't know this and they certainly did not say this.

That is exactly what they said.


[edit on 9/1/2009 by Phage]

That's not what they said, but if you think that's what they said, then they were wrong. See my post above this one answering Soilent Green.

[edit on 1/9/2009 by Iamonlyhuman]

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

The statement about objects of 150meters at .7AU is really not about detection or tracking. It is about determining the size and albedo of the objects.

Chart 5b (page 4) shows that new NEOs of .1km are detectable at a distance of .2AU (18.5 million miles, a large volume of space).

Blowup of Figure 3a for the NEO region, showing that 140 meter diameter objects can be discovered up to 0.3 AU from the Earth.

The chart you reference actually shows that with a 2 year mission, WISE could discover about 5% of 1.4km (as required by the updated mandate) NEOs. In 5 years 10% of them could be found.



[edit on 9/1/2009 by Phage]

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

 

The statement about objects of 150meters at .7AU is really not about detection or tracking. It is about determining the size and albedo of the objects.

Chart 5b (page 4) shows that new NEOs of .1km are detectable at a distance of .2AU (18.5 million miles, a large volume of space).

Blowup of Figure 3a for the NEO region, showing that 140 meter diameter objects can be discovered up to 0.3 AU from the Earth.

Ok, so that says then that they are capable of measuring already found asteroids to 150 meters.

The chart you reference actually shows that with a 2 year mission, WISE could discover about 5% of 1.4km NEOs. In 5 years 10% of them could be found.

Yes it does, but it also says

The dashed lines (2 and 5 years) show mission durations that will not be possible with WISE, but they are included to show the capabilities of WISE-like surveys.

That is because:

WISE will launch with cryogen sufficient for a mission lasting up to one year.

Is it capable of holding more? I don't know but if they were really out to discover any (more than ZERO percent) new NEOs then, if it is capable, why aren't they doing it? If it's not capable, then it's obvious.



[edit on 1/9/2009 by Iamonlyhuman]

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

It says it can measure objects of 150meters at .7AU. It can measure small objects at lesser distances.

Why would they launch with less cyrogen than full capacity? That makes no sense.

It will discover new, small NEOs. That's what chart 5b shows. It will only find a very small percentage of the total though, because there are very many of them. It will find a large percentage of new, large NEOs. Because they are easier to find and because there are less of them (resulting in a higher percentage).

[edit on 9/1/2009 by Phage]

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

 

Why would they launch with less cyrogen than full capacity? That makes no sense.

It will discover new NEOs. That's what chart 5b shows.


[edit on 9/1/2009 by Phage]

Ok, then the capacity of WISE is such that it will not be capable of discovering any (as in zero percent) new asteroids (figure 8).

Figure 5b says it's a blowup of 3a but I think that it was a typo because there's not a 3a and it looks to be a blowup of 5a which actually makes more sense.

Figure 5a says

Minimum detectable diameter for asteroids as function of distance for new orbits in red, showing the single frame detection limit, and for known orbits in black, where 8 frames can be stacked.

They are talking about the known asteroids here.

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

The red curve is for new NEOs. The black curve is for known NEOs. Smaller objects can be found at greater distances if they are known but unknown objects can be detected.


[edit on 9/1/2009 by Phage]

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

It still seems to me that according to Fig. 8, the NEO WISE program could still discover about 5% of 250 meter NEOs, 10% of 500 meter NEOs and about 25% of 1000 meter NEOs. The narrative portion of the study specifically mentioned 20% of all 700 meter objects.

Are you saying that they should not use WISE because they will not be able to discover the smallest NEO threats? What is the problem with discovering larger NEO threats that could otherwise go undiscovered because they are "dark" C-types?

I think 10% of 500 meter NEOs and 20 % of 700 meter NEOs is a good start -- especially considering that some of these low-albedo objects may not be discoverable otherwise. It seems to me that the NEO program could use all the help it can get.

Furthermore, by reading between the lines, it seems NASA also views this as a test-bed for future WISE-style instruments that could survey the sky over a longer duration, searching for more NEOs. It seems logical to me that this aspect also adds to the valid reasons for using WISE for NEO detection and discovery.

...and I'm still not exactly sure what this has to do with Nibiru.



[edit on 9/1/2009 by Soylent Green Is People]

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman


I certainly would say they are interested in finding Nemesis, Sol's Companion (a brown/red dwarf star) and one of its satellites ... Nibiru or Planet X or the Destroyer as it is often biblically referred to.


[edit on 9/1/2009 by Evisscerator]

What puzzles me, is the Vatican, and why they mussled their way into Mount Graham in Arizona and build an space telescope there...

And Malachi Martin said they did it because the HigherUp's in the Vatican needed to know what is approaching us..

And the last few years, the Vatican, or atleast Vatican officials have been saing 'it is okey to belive in ET's' and they think 'ET life is possible'..

Originally posted by Soylent Green Is People
reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

 

It still seems to me that according to Fig. 8, the NEO WISE program could still discover about 5% of 250 meter NEOs, 10% of 500 meter NEOs and about 25% of 1000 meter NEOs. The narrative portion of the study specifically mentioned 20% of all 700 meter objects.

Are you saying that they should not use WISE because they will not be able to discover the smallest NEO threats? What is the problem with discovering larger NEO threats that could otherwise go undiscovered because they are "dark" C-types?

I think 10% of 500 meter NEOs and 20 % of 700 meter NEOs is a good start -- especially considering that some of these low-albedo objects may not be discoverable otherwise. It seems to me that the NEO program could use all the help it can get.

Furthermore, by reading between the lines, it seems NASA also views this as a test-bed for future WISE-style instruments that could survey the sky over a longer duration, searching for more NEOs. It seems logical to me that this aspect also adds to the valid reasons for using WISE for NEO detection and discovery.

...and I'm still not exactly sure what this has to do with Nibiru.

I can see a little perspective is needed. I put together this list from various sources easily searched:

Perspective:
85% of the 1,000 meter NEOs have been identified – extinction event, global effect
? of the 300 meter NEOs have been identified – large sub-global effect
15% of the 140 meter NEOs have been identified – regional (state or seaboard) event Roughly equivalent to 150 million tons of TNT, or more than 10,000 times that of the atom bomb dropped on Hiroshima
5% of the 50 meter NEOs have been identified – citywide damage

The 300 meter NEOs are between 15% and 85% identified, probably somewhere around 65%. The reason for the smaller percentages of “smaller” asteroids that are identified is because there are so many more. Scientists estimate that there are 100,000 140 meter NEOs out there and only 1,100 1,000 meter NEOs. I could not find data on the probability of impact for these categories of NEOs but I think it’s very logical to assume that the probability of impact of 140 meter NEOs is significantly higher than 300 meter and 1,000 meter NEOs due only to the much larger numbers of them.

You talk about the 140 meter NEOs as “the smallest NEO threat”, they are not! They are the BIGGEST threat! NASA and the politicians have decided that the 140 meter scenerio above is not acceptable (and I agree with them, don’t you?) and that’s why they have set the minimum mandate to discover and track 90% (just 90%, btw) of these. While I agree that we should identify as many larger 500 – 700 meter NEOs as we can (and we are doing quite well at that already), the numbers just don’t support the argument that transferring this amount of money from the already vastly under-funded NEO program to WISE, which cannot identify the BIGGEST risk NEOs, just for the sake of science and surveying the sky. I DO have faith in our leaders intelligence, what I DO NOT have faith in is their traightforwardness.

Since they felt it necessary to discover and track NEOs that have the potential to wipe the eastern seaboard off the face of the map (and I agree with them), why would they then take money from that program and put it towards another program unless that other program showed a risk that was even more significant. The only thing in the mission of WISE that that could be is “uncovering the coldest stars, called brown dwarfs, perhaps even one closer to us than our closest known neighbor”. Did you know that they had cut back tremendously on WISE in 2006 and were even considering canceling the project? What did they learn that made them not only reconsider but actually push the schedule up for it?

NASA Cutbacks Cause Uncertainty Among Space Researchers – June 16, 2006

For the Explorer spacecraft known as WISE (Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer), the road has been long and the end is not in sight. "Five years out from the original proposal for the project, we are still at least 4 years away from launch--if we are lucky," says Edward Wright, a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of California, Los Angeles, and WISE principal investigator. Wright and his team expected to get the green light earlier this year to enter the final stages of study; instead, they got a letter from NASA saying their 2006 funding was being cut from $70 million to $30 million, and that before the year is over, a decision will be made whether to scrap the mission entirely.

As far as Nibiru is concerned, I really don’t care if this threat is called Nibiru or whatever, seriously. It’s just that it certainly does appear that they know there’s a brown dwarf out there and that it’s risk to the planet Earth is greater than that of the NEOs out there.

Remember this?

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8427fc3834a5.jpg[/atsimg]

www.space.com...∩=The+scar+from+the+probably+impact+appeared+Jul y+19+in+Jupiter%27s+southern+hemisphere%2C+and+has+grown+to+a+size+greater+than+the+extent+of+the+Pacific+Ocean.+This+infrared+image+taken+with+Keck+I I+on+July+20+shows+the+new+feature+observed+on+Jupiter+and+its+relative+size+compared+to+Earth.+Credit%3A+Paul+Kalas+(UCB)%2C+Michael+Fitzgerald+(LLNL %2FUCB)%2C+Franck+Marchis+(SETI+Institute%2FUCB)%2C+James+Graham+(UCB)

The scar from the probably impact appeared July 19 in Jupiter's southern hemisphere, and has grown to a size greater than the extent of the Pacific Ocean. This infrared image taken with Keck II on July 20 shows the new feature observed on Jupiter and its relative size compared to Earth. Credit: Paul Kalas (UCB), Michael Fitzgerald (LLNL/UCB), Franck Marchis (SETI Institute/UCB), James Graham (UCB)

NASA didn’t even know it was out there.

Unlike what you see in movies, NASA estimates that after discovery of an asteroid on an impact course with Earth, it would take 10 years to do characterization (of the asteroid or comet) and mitigation strategy planning before they could actually implement the mitigation strategy. Don’t you think it’s very important, then, to discover these NEOs as soon as possible so you can track them and know if they are a concern?? Obviously, it's not as important as something else.

just a dash of perspective.
this/these programs and the recent movement to classify space rocks has a message tied to it. i think we should listen.

I also think that because NASA is losing a lot of funding for other "deemed" low priority projects, WISE could be used as a sneaky multi tool.

Their search for other worlds which could possibly harbor life, has been suffering due to "cutbacks". I'll look for the article I read on that a few months ago...but WISE could also be used to "look" into harder to spot planets, under the guise as a "world saving, killer asteroid finder". And what government wouldn't want to fund something that would keep them in control. hahaha.

Sneaky Nasa?



[edit on 2-9-2009 by Demoncreeper]

Originally posted by spikey
reply to post by Ophiuchus 13

 

Not sure, but it looks like it's a comet.

The dark area at the front/center could be the nucleus, and the glowing area to the sides and rear could be the coma...or gas and vapour 'tail'.

Curious though, that it appears that another, similar sized object had already passed through the area of the first object.

Look at the area to the left of the bright object/comet, it appears there was a twin object, preceding the bright one. There is what appears to be the trail or coma of another possible comet (or whatever), curving up from the bottom of the frame, follows a sharp left hand curve, and exits the image, middle left. The bright object looks to be leaving a very similar trail.

The sharpness of the curve makes me think they are quite small objects, rather than planets or so on, as they are not orbiting the sun.

But who knows...i'm no expert, so i don't. Perhaps they are orbiting us.

thanx FRIEND

If there was a brown dwarf in the solar system, wouldn't its mass affect the orbits of the planets? A brown dwarf, by definition is slightly larger than the planet Jupiter with a mass that is greater than 70 to 80 jupiters and would have an effect on other planetary bodies around it, as per the laws of gravity. For example of such, take the asteroid belt, its orbit is affected by the force of gravity from the sun that pulls on it, and the gravity of Jupiter that pulls it in the other way. Anything with that much mass would disrupt the gratational pull of both Jupiter and the Sun, moving it into another orbit, and depending on where the object was, it would start to nudge objects into a new orbits.

Just my thought.

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

The mandate concerns NEOs, it does not concern distant asteroids like the one that hit Jupiter.

near-Earth object: Asteroids or comets that pass within 1.3 astronomical units of the Sun.

www.amnh.org...
The object that hit Jupiter was not a Near Earth Object (far from it, Jupiter is 4AU from us, and 5AU from the sun). It is irrelevant to this discussion.

As far as the "transfer" of funds from NEO detection to WISE goes, it did not happen. WISE was in development before the NEO survey was mandated.

NASA made the decision to "continue" work on WISE in 2003.

NASA has decided to continue studying the Widefield Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), a four-channel, super-cooled infrared telescope designed to survey the entire sky with 1,000 times more sensitivity than previous infrared missions. A decision on proceeding to flight development with WISE will be made in 2004. Dr. Edward Wright of the University of California, Los Angeles, is the Principal Investigator for WISE.

www.nasa.gov...

WISE was selected for prelimary design review in August of 2004.

In November of 2004, the University of Utah was given a contract to build the telescope.

Under a $40 million NASA contract, Utah State University is to build an orbiting infrared telescope able to examine strange luminous galaxies, find new stars and perhaps help protect Earth from asteroids.

source

On September 1, 2005 the premilinary design reviews for WISE were completed.

Public Law 109-155 became effective on December 30, 2005. It says:

(1) SURVEY PROGRAM.—The Administrator shall plan,develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physicalcharacteristics of near-Earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such Deadline. near-Earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-Earth object catalogue (based on statistically predicted populations of near-Earth objects) within 15 years after the date of enactment of this Act.

Development of WISE was well under way, with its current mission, before the NEO survey became law.

Wright (UCLA) changed his tune a bit in October of 2006 when final approval for the mission was granted.

"This mission has incredible power for discovery," Wright said. "I expect that what we find will be amazing. There is still so much we don't know.

newsroom.ucla.edu...
That same article puts the scheduled launch date in "late 2009". The launch was not "moved up".

There is also something wrong with the numbers in the article you quote ($70/$30m). From October 14, 2006:

NASA on Friday approved the construction of a $300 million, Earth-orbiting telescope that will scan the skies for failed stars called brown dwarfs, along with other celestial eccentrics.

www.rockymountainnews.com...

The goal of the mandate is to complete the survey by 2020. But you ignore the fact that WISE will aid in the survey. It will find hundreds of small NEOs (down to 100 meters) and most of the large NEOs. Ground based observations have found many, WISE will find many more, future missions will find still more.

WISE was designed and built to perform an infrared survey of deep space as well as the solar system. That was and is its purpose. That purpose has not changed and no funds were suddenly "transferred" to the program to enable it to look for a mythical planet. NASA does not "know there's a brown dwarf out there and that it's a risk". The mission is to look for these and other objects which have not been observable with prior instruments. While there may be a brown dwarf within 4 light years of us, there in virtually no chance that there is one close enough to be of any danger. Other infrared studies (including a ground based sky survey) have provided much new knowledge. Now there will be a spaced based survey (with the most powerful infrared telescope ever built) which will provide even more new knowledge, and will find NEOs as a bonus.

[edit on 9/2/2009 by Phage]

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Iamonlyhuman

 

The mandate concerns NEOs, it does not concern distant asteroids like the one that hit Jupiter.

near-Earth object: Asteroids or comets that pass within 1.3 astronomical units of the Sun.

www.amnh.org...
The object that hit Jupiter was not a Near Earth Object (far from it, Jupiter is 4AU from us, and 5AU from the sun). It is irrelevant to this discussion.

Yes, I know the object that hit Jupiter was not a NEO. It was for illustrative purposes only – to help bring perspective back into the discussion. In fact, no one knows whether it was an asteroid, comet, or other object because no one saw it.

WISE was in development before the NEO survey was mandated.

Correct.

As far as the "transfer" of funds from NEO detection to WISE goes, it did not happen.

Yes it did.

Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report

NASA has funded an enhancement to the baseline WISE mission, called NEOWISE, to facilitate solar system science. NEOWISE is expected to discover hundreds of new NEOs with sizes as small as ~100 meters. The advantage of an infrared-selected sample is that it is inherently less biased against discovery of low-albedo objects than are optical surveys. However, NEOWISE is not a stand-alone NEO survey and requires coordination with other surveys to make full use of its data.

NASA made the decision to "continue" work on WISE in 2003.

NASA has decided to continue studying the Widefield Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), a four-channel, super-cooled infrared telescope designed to survey the entire sky with 1,000 times more sensitivity than previous infrared missions. A decision on proceeding to flight development with WISE will be made in 2004. Dr. Edward Wright of the University of California, Los Angeles, is the Principal Investigator for WISE.

www.nasa.gov...

WISE was selected for prelimary design review in August of 2004.

In November of 2004, the University of Utah was given a contract to build the telescope.

Under a $40 million NASA contract, Utah State University is to build an orbiting infrared telescope able to examine strange luminous galaxies, find new stars and perhaps help protect Earth from asteroids.

source

On September 1, 2005 the premilinary design reviews for WISE were completed.

Public Law 109-155 became effective on December 30, 2005. It says:

(1) SURVEY PROGRAM.—The Administrator shall plan,develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physicalcharacteristics of near-Earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such Deadline. near-Earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-Earth object catalogue (based on statistically predicted populations of near-Earth objects) within 15 years after the date of enactment of this Act.

Development of WISE was well under way, with its current mission, before the NEO survey became law.

Good recap so far, what does it have to do with our discussion?

Wright (UCLA) changed his tune a bit in October of 2006 when final approval for the mission was granted.

"This mission has incredible power for discovery," Wright said. "I expect that what we find will be amazing. There is still so much we don't know.

newsroom.ucla.edu...
That same article puts the scheduled launch date in "late 2009". The launch was not "moved up".

There is also something wrong with the numbers in the article you quote ($70/$30m). From October 14, 2006:

NASA on Friday approved the construction of a $300 million, Earth-orbiting telescope that will scan the skies for failed stars called brown dwarfs, along with other celestial eccentrics.

www.rockymountainnews.com...

The $70/$30M numbers were for the final study. The $300M was for construction. In a federal capital line item project, there are various phases within a project that get funded separately (and these were only 2 of the phases, expensive isn’t it?). That’s why there are so many announcements along the way, because they are major milestones within the overall project. There are very strict laws regarding how and when funding can be moved around, not only within a capital line item project but also from other sources (such as NEO program) because line items are specifically funded by Congress through law (as you have pointed out above). WISE is definitely a capital line item, I’m not so sure about NEO because it’s an operational program. I have been searching appropriations bills in order to find WISE because through our discussions here it really does seem to me that NASA has broken the law in transferring the funds from NEO to WISE, unless of course, they formally went through the line item change control process and Congress approved it. Capital line item change control usually takes about 2 years (I’ve seen it happen in 6 months but that was truly an emergency), this one happened very, very quickly. But I digress.

The goal of the mandate is to complete the survey by 2020. But you ignore the fact that WISE will aid in the survey. It will find hundreds of small NEOs (down to 100 meters) and most of the large NEOs. Ground based observations have found many, WISE will find many more, future missions will find still more.

If you are again referring to the graph 5b then I refer you to the graph 8 in the same document. Taken together those two graphs say that in a 2 or 5 year mission, WISE will detect NEOs down to 100 meters but WISE IS NOT CAPABLE of a 2 or 5 year mission because of the cryogen issue.

WISE was designed and built to perform an infrared survey of deep space as well as the solar system. That was and is its purpose. That purpose has not changed and no funds were suddenly "transferred" to the program to enable it to look for a mythical planet.

Funds WERE transferred to the program, as I again showed you above. The program’s mission is to:

uncover the coldest stars, called brown dwarfs, perhaps even one closer to us than our closest known neighbor, Proxima Centauri, which is 4 light-years away. More distant finds will include nurseries of stars, swirling planet-building disks and the universe's most luminous galaxies billions of light-years away.

Do you doubt that they are looking for brown dwarfs, perhaps even closer to us than our closest know neighbor? If we don't use the "N" word (and no, I'm not talking about the racial slur), will that make you happy?

NASA does not "know there's a brown dwarf out there and that it's a risk". The mission is to look for these and other objects which have not been observable with prior instruments. While there may be a brown dwarf within 4 light years of us, there in virtually no chance that there is one close enough to be of any danger.

Well if that’s the case then the entire NASA executive staff should be fired, because, if there isn’t any danger then they have taken funds from a program that is designed to mitigate a very real threat to the planet Earth and given it to a program that has no risk basis.

Other infrared studies (including a ground based sky survey) have provided much new knowledge. Now there will be a spaced based survey (with the most powerful infrared telescope ever built) which will provide even more new knowledge, and will find NEOs as a bonus.

Uh, ok… everything's groovy then.

ok, SUPPOSE there is a brown dwarf closer than Alpha Centauri.

A brown dwarf is a quite large thing... larger than Jupiter! And emitting quite more infrared radiation.

It would be VERY EASY to spot a brown dwarf close enough to reach the Solar System in less than 500 years!!

I guess the problem here is that people dont have a good idea of the DISTANCES involved.

If the Brown Dwarf was close enough to reach Earth by 2012, it must be CLOSER than the orbit of Neptune! You would be able to see it with your naked eye.

If the brown dwarf is far enough that we cant detect it with observatories around the world (not only NASA, because NASA doesnt have any monopoly of observing the sky... in fact, most discoveries are NOT made by NASA, but by the millions of amateur and professional astronomers out there), then this brown dwarf will take HUNDREDS OF YEARS, in the LEAST, to reach us... that is, considering its aimed at us.


To start, what are the odds that it would be aimed at us? Consider this... the Sun is the size of a sand grain. In that scale, the next closest star, Alpha Centauri, is over 9km away from the sun... now, what are the chances that 2 sand grains 9km apart will collide with each other?

Ok, but lets consider its really aimed at us. So why would it take so much time for an yet invisible brown dwarf to reach us???

Because lets say its only 1 light year away from the sun. (4 times closer than Alpha Centauri). Thats VERY close, and its quite doubtful we wouldnt be able to see such a star.

If its 1 light year away from us, it would take 1 year for it to reach us at light speed.

BUT... obviously, it cant travel at 300 thousand kilometers per second. In fact, it cant be travelling faster than 1000 km/s, because that is faster than the Milky Way escape velocity!

Lets say it is travelling at 1000km/s and comes from out of the Milky Way (in that case, no way the Mayas would know about it haha)

Anyway, at that speed, 9 billion seconds for it to cover the 9,5 trillion kilometers of one light year. 9 billion seconds equals 289 years.

And that is considering INCREDIBLE odds!! (being at 1 ly and still be invisible, be travelling at galactic escape velocity, and be aimed at the Solar System)