Taliban ready if Afghan government fails, analyst warns

Taliban ready if Afghan government fails, analyst warns

www.reuters.com

CANBERRA (Reuters) - Afghanistan's government must fight corruption and quickly deliver services to Afghans, because Taliban militants are filling gaps and winning support to their cause, a top counter-insurgency expert said on Monday.
The Taliban were already running courts, hospitals and even an ombudsman in parallel to the government, making a real difference to local people, said David Kilcullen, a senior adviser to U.S. commander General Stanley McChrystal.

"A government that is losing to a counter-insurgency isn't being outfought, it is being out-governed. And that's what's happ

(visit the link for the full news article)

What I find most interesting about this story is that it reveals something new about the "Taliban". I am to believe that the taliban that are running hospitals and local courts are the same groups that are moving back and forth over the Pakistan border, setting up ambushes and roadside bombs?

I assume that the Afghan hospitals are nothing like the Northwestern Memorial, but it still seems expensive to operate a facility that can save lives.

Am I to believe that the US/NATO have gotten into a war with people that are basically trying to do the same thing they claim to be trying to do for the people of Afghanistan or is someone trying to flip the script with this article to make it appear as if the US/NATO is fighting genuine progress because they don't want guys in turbans to be respected by the people of Afghanistan.

I think the Taliban that are building hospitals and running courts and the Taliban that are setting up ambushes, laying roadside bombs and robbing travelers are two different groups but both called Taliban.

www.reuters.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

You can't win an occupation.

Obama is fool for thinking that sending more troops there is going to make a difference. Part of good military strategy is knowing when to retreat and consolidate your resources.

reply to post by milesp


I suppose that is true...but I think that it may be somewhat more complicated than that.

The American political allies in Afghanistan have shown a strong preference for corruption and Hamid Karzai's hat is ridiculous...the political allies of the Taliban Military have shown a preference for institutional development and fair dealing with civilians, but Taliban military cannot be allowed to exist under any circumstance and have to be destroyed or they can always surrender; their committment to attacking America has ensured that they will be fought til the sun don't shine.

For me...a guy without preconceived notions of what is real and what is false wants to know...why a good man and a good woman be allowed to live togther and start a family? and why parasites are so difficult to remove.

before america invaded afghanistan, the taliban were the government. they continue to govern where they can and where they can't govern due to foreign interference, they fight the foreign army and their vichy allies.

this is because they are a national government, it's allies and local people trying to resist occupation by a foreign power.

[edit on 31/8/09 by pieman]

reply to post by IDK88


You will eventually rid your brain of the propaganda they put in there. Getting closer and closer, it is like a scary movie.

See the only reason why Taliban was allowed to rule Afghanistan in the first place was due to their honesty. They were basically the most honest people around unlike the warlord counterparts who rule Afghanistan now. Their was absolutely no corruption at the time of Taliban and their policy were made based on Afghan interests not Foreign interest. That is the exact reason why America decided to rid them in the first place. It had nothing to do with human rights or osama, it was all bull# which people decided to believe unlike the Iraq war pretext bull#.

Like Bush said himself, "Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me". America has been fooled for too long by their leaders, actually most of the world.

Originally posted by IDK88


What I find most interesting about this story is that it reveals something new about the "Taliban". I am to believe that the taliban that are running hospitals and local courts are the same groups that are moving back and forth over the Pakistan border, setting up ambushes and roadside bombs?

I assume that the Afghan hospitals are nothing like the Northwestern Memorial, but it still seems expensive to operate a facility that can save lives.

Am I to believe that the US/NATO have gotten into a war with people that are basically trying to do the same thing they claim to be trying to do for the people of Afghanistan or is someone trying to flip the script with this article to make it appear as if the US/NATO is fighting genuine progress because they don't want guys in turbans to be respected by the people of Afghanistan.

I think the Taliban that are building hospitals and running courts and the Taliban that are setting up ambushes, laying roadside bombs and robbing travelers are two different groups but both called Taliban.

www.reuters.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

you are wrong, the taliban is the taliban is the taliban.. you forget they were rulers of afghanistan from 1996-2001.. as ive said before in other threads, in order to even have an insurgency you need the support of the people... everyone knows the "mayor of Kabul" is a corrupt douchebag.. even Gen. McChrystal is saying we are losing this fight.. i dont see us winning it either because our economic woes will not allow us to.. why do you think al-shabaab in somali and hizbul islam keep defeating every TFG gov't the west puts against them.. because the western backed TFG is inept, corrupt and crooked... just like the govt in afghanistan.. same as iraq too except thier security forces have become compitant enough to hold the ground.

Im in Afghanistan in the Kunar Pro, and I can tell you the Taliban here are no good. The only Hospitals they run here is the ones that treat their fighters after they get in a fight with us. On top of all of that you have fighters from other countries coming in to here to fight us all so just because they don’t like us. The only way for us to win here is keep doing what we are doing, and stabilize the current government of Afghanistan. We need to stay the course and fight the hard fight and if we do we will when this war.

reply to post by oozyism


It's difficult to shed the propaganda...when nearly nothing men say can ever be trusted. I know the Afghan government is corrupt, I know that the TFG of Somalia is corrupt and I know that simply replacing what is there with what has conveniently made itself available, the Taliban in the case of Afghanistan and Hizbul Islam and Al Shabaab in Somalia...would be even worse and is not the solution.

Unlike you I am searching for the third option and trying to determine its nature, but I first need you to help me figure out the Taliban's source of power. But, fortunately for us all, the third answer will make itself known in time, thus its not really necessary for me to figure it out, but I get bored and I enjoy complicated problems, so I still take a stab at it...to kill some time, while waiting for the mess over there to work itself out.

In 1996, when the Taliban emerged "victorious" in the Afghan civil war, America was still under occupation...so it makes since that the real power behind the Taliban was the occupation forces who were at the time governing in America. In November 2005 to December 2006, when the occupation forces in America were defeated and fled, it should of led to the fall of the Taliban, but they are still up apparently. But how?

The last parliamentary elections took place in September 2005 and this recent presidential election is the first since 2004. The current government in Afghanistan is therefore a leftover from when America was still under occupation. Hamid Karzai is probably an occupation puppet then as well.

But the Taliban came to power with the blessing of occupation world government and I suspect the two groups are still friends and great lovers. That is how the Taliban has been so effective in Afghanistan...Parliament and the leadership is 2/3 occupation representatives, while the American force are now free. Which means that the Taliban and the Afghanistan government are secretly allied and fighting against the United States forces, while making it appear to the world through the propaganda mechanism that the US and Afghan government are friends and fighting the Taliban.

It seems as well that the people of Afghanistan that are trying to rebuild their country have been duped by this illusion as well and are being manipulated to believe that the US/NATO is the enemy, thus they offer no support.

That's what I think...it makes perfect sense and has all the ingredients for a proper analysis. Not just your brutish suggestions that America bad, Taliban good. Nothing in the history of the world has ever been that clear and for you to try and convince me that in this specific case that it is...well, that's propaganda.






[edit on 31-8-2009 by IDK88]

reply to post by TheCoffinman


That's funny...I am not aware that things are going very well for Hizbul Islam and Al Shabaab. Perhaps you should get an update on that situation.

Originally posted by IDK88
reply to post by TheCoffinman

 

That's funny...I am not aware that things are going very well for Hizbul Islam and Al Shabaab. Perhaps you should get an update on that situation.

im writing a book, i scour the newswires everyday and record the days bloodshed.. why just today Sheikh Abdirahman Ibrahim Ma'ow, the de facto governor of Hiraan province and an influential member of the ruling Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), announced yesterday that he would no longer back the transitional federal government (TFG). why is this? because of the ethiopians pushing al-shabaab out of beledweyne.. now the ethiopians are either pulling out of beledweyne or theyre headed towards bulobarde, unconfirmed reports so i cant verify that... if you go to wikipedia they have a map on there, not very up to date now but not a whole lot has changed since... al-shabaab and hizbul islam control all of southern somalia and roughly half of central somalia and 3/4th's of Mogadishu... the same amount they controlled before the ICU defected to the TFG a year ago... no matter what TFG government they have, the western backed Somali's are ineffective.. the president's palace is under seige, the government in exile... al-shabaab and hizbul islam are just fine...

reply to post by TheCoffinman


The article was clear that he is not happy about the Ethiopian troops being in Somalia but it doesn't go as far to say that he has switched his support to the other two groups. I suppose he wants to be neutral for now. As far as the situation of the TFG and that of Hizbul Islam and Al Shabaab...I only have to say that if things are going so well for the Islamists and they have so much territory and support, why haven't they finished the job?

I also keep an eye on the goings on in and around Mogadishu...and suspect that Sharif Ahmed, a member of the ousted ICU in December 2006...isn't all he seems. It doesn't really change much, my understanding of the situation...as it is difficult to:

1. Determine the source motivations of the players.
2. Filter falsehood from truth.

The true enemy in this and other conflicts plays both sides and lies about both sides...for me it is impossible to determine who is who and ultimately I'll just watch the situation disintegrate into oblivion and the one who lasts to the end gets everything.

Men's eternal souls are at stake in this war and the men on the ground aren't quick at making decisions on how they will use the lives and resources trusted to them. I don't think you should either; no one is trying to end up as a piece of meat hanging from a hook in the town square.

reply to post by IDK88


im not defending al-shabaab or hizbul islam by any means but the only reason they dont have all of Mogadishu by now is because of the AMISOM soldiers and thier heavy equipment... also the annoying prescense of ethiopians on thier flanks possibly keep them from overstretching themselves..

reply to post by TheCoffinman


There is still fighting in Iraq, and the fighting will continue.

second line

reply to post by TheCoffinman


I have lost hope in my quest to decipher Somalia. After the situation with the French security consultants...I figure it's to dark to feel comfortable with any analysis of the place.

Just to be clear...the French agents were going to Somalia to assist the TFG, while in route they were abducted following a tip off from someone inside the TFG and handed over as hostages, one each to Hizbul Islam and Al Shabaab. WTF was that all about? Are these people frenemies or something?

The only thing I can say about these three entities which were 3 years ago allied as the ICU (the old warlords are gone and most of the original TFG is gone), is that they are waiting, just like the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, for changes to occur in a special operations or intelligence battlespace and none can do anything until that event occurs.

That is why the TFG is still there in the Palace...the military aspect of the war has stalemated and the war in general can only be resolved through "other" means.

I suspect the same to be true for the situation in Afghanistan...the Taliban can't end the war, despite their alleged divinity, and we are forced to watch what is nothing more than a low intensity hot skirmish, while waiting for "other" aspects of the battlespace to become clearer.

reply to post by oozyism


Well America is out of there...the vast majority of the American military is only concerned with packing up the equipment and making travel arrangements.

So, who does that mean is doing the fighting...It's a broken down AQI killing Iraqi's and playing the role of foreign occupier. But I guess your beliefs with regards to foreign occupiers changes when its your friends that are the occupiers.

When those Al Qaeda types are rotting away in the insane asylum going on and on about the evil Americans you'll understand.

reply to post by IDK88


indeed the military situation has stalemated in both somallia and afghanistan... i think that Operations panther's claw and khanjar were just media ploys to make it seem like obama's (cant think of the word) plan was workin or worked or whatever... obviously its done nothing in the scheme of things except stick soldiers deeper into the hornets nest...

reply to post by usmc0369


You know that's the definition of stupidity right? Keep doing the same thing over and over again with the same result? That's the entire point........THINGS ARE NOT WORKING IN OUR FAVOR in Afghanistan. It's an unwinnable war in a country that is surrounded by people that hate us and hate you. Do you want to take over the world? I mean there are millions of terrorists in every nook and cranny in the world...........who cares? America needs to focus on itself for once. After all our country is imploding anyways. There will come a time in the near future where none of the crap you or any other soldier or politician says will matter.............we won't be able to AFFORD to go to war.

Originally posted by Zosynspiracy
reply to post by usmc0369

 

You know that's the definition of stupidity right? Keep doing the same thing over and over again with the same result? That's the entire point........THINGS ARE NOT WORKING IN OUR FAVOR in Afghanistan. It's an unwinnable war in a country that is surrounded by people that hate us and hate you. Do you want to take over the world? I mean there are millions of terrorists in every nook and cranny in the world...........who cares? America needs to focus on itself for once. After all our country is imploding anyways. There will come a time in the near future where none of the crap you or any other soldier or politician says will matter.............we won't be able to AFFORD to go to war.

here, here!! GW knew what would happen if we got involved... we can thank president McKinley for forever involving us in world affairs (Spanish-American War 1898) apparently the west wasnt enough for us, manifest destiny continues...

The funniest thing about the people who are firm in their opposition to America's involvement in foreign affairs...is the FACT that the people who initiated these current events and those who stand to benefit most from it are the allies of the very people and groups we are supposed to be fighting.

America is not leaving the battlefield, not because we as American's don't learn but because our enemies need us there and always have. If we were to pack all of our things and leave...who do you think benefits...we do. Who loses...the people of Afghanistan and the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Only 3 out of over 200 sovereign states recognized the Taliban between 1996 and 2001. What else but isolation in a desolate and isolated place can the Taliban expect? Do you think it will change...when the Taliban bring absolutely nothing to the table for the Afghan people in the event they do take over...how long do you think they'll last. When the Afghan people are sitting over there hating us...who do you really think over here is gonna give a care? No one.

The Taliban and Al Qaeda were playing the big game and they are losing...they gave up Afghanistan willingly, all part of their "master" plan...they had hoped this whole thing was gonna be over back in 2005. Ask Zawahiri, he never thought it would last this long...in the summer of 2005 he had hoped for an event similar to something that went down in Vietnam...but it didn't happen.

I've read their holy books and their sacred literature...I know exacatly what it is that they need and what they are waiting for. No military solution is not just a problem for one side, but for both. America leaving would just mean the Taliban would be responsible for cleaning up a bombed out sh1thole called Kabul, with no international assistance and no money of their own and the poppy crop won't even be close to being enough.

So when you guys get through trying to convince people that you know how much money and wealth America has or that the Taliban's current strategic position is desirable or a part of their plan...lets just get back to this war.

FYI...what is it that the Taliban and Al Qaeda and/or the global terror movement NEED for their Jihad to be successful...?

They need to gain control over just a single special household and they are not even close.

That's what they've been doing for the last 20 years and are worse off now than at any time in History....Don't believe me? You should ask somebody.