Magnetosphere Watch Thread - Pictures - Latest Information -

Originally posted by MemoryShock
The personal commentary ends now.

Contribute to the discussion on topic or do not contribute at all.

Thank you.

I, for one, am frustrated.

The OP seems very UNWILLING to participate in this general discussion and discourse. Actually, as I stated a page ago:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

the OP has never replied or discussed ANYTHING with ME, despite my repeated attempts to engage her in general discussion/debate in the threads that she has created. As Cruxshadows mentioned a few posts back "This is not a blog. This is a forum."
If QuestioningAll is not interested in any discussion/debate then maybe she should be posting these ideas, thoughts, and feelings on her own personal blog, or on her Myspace page.

This is NOT personal commentary. I would actually like to discuss/debate these topics which QA post's about with her, and kick around ideas (even if they're far out..."fringe"). I am more than willing to check my ego at the door, and refrain from all sarcasm and snide comments, if she would just respond in a little intellectual debate.
Again I have been completely unsuccessful in engaging her in any type of back-and-forth discussion. It seems to me, if you do not agree with her, she completely ignore's you.

Is this the type of attitudes and interactions which ATS promotes amongst it's members?
Not according to the site owners.

If you choose to remove my post for being "off topic", then I will feel the need to send a copy of this post with my concerns onto the Site owners:
Bill "SkepticOverlord", Mark "Springer", SimonGray, and Stephen "Crakeur".

I may be new here, however I would like to make my voice heard on this issue. I am NOT the only ATS member who shares these concerns.

I agree with quite a few people in here about how things are being managed, but I do think it's interesting and am curious as to why the "bubble" on the left side of the Earth is actually a lot smaller than what I've normally seen. (Not saying it's not a normal situation, just not as normal as I've seen in recent times.)

reply to post by ekhodust

The simulation always shows that response to the state of the solar wind at that time (moderately to high density and speed with a northward orientation).

I have a hunch it may have to do with the tightening of the magnetic field. This may cause an increase in pressure of the particles in that area. Just a hunch though.




[edit on 8/5/2009 by Phage]

Just to further my point that the OP really needs to start listening to others on this forum that know a bit more then she does. This was her original Magnetosphere watch thread www.abovetopsecret.com.... The first post alone is enough to raise some flags on the fear monger radar. This isn't a personal attack, This is a suggestion. I suggest she take a step back and read what some other people have wrote and maybe even reread it. Let it all sink in then look at all of the magnetosphere pictures again. This is nothing new. It is nothing that wasn't forecast days ago. The stuff going on right now is supposed to continue through tomorrow but settle down to quiet levels after that.

On another note, I want to thank Phage for helping me in my research of all this stuff. Whenever i read something i didn't understand and google wasn't any help. Phage answered my questions even if they were stupid. He is a invaluable member of the ATS forums.

The Bz component of the solar wind switched to southward at about 02:45. In response, the magnetosphere simulation is showing magnetic field lines reconnecting with the IMF, separating and spreading. The simulation is also showing a chance of auroral activity but the closer in satellites aren't showing real time data which indicates that. Geomagnetic activity has increased a bit though. Since the simulation uses data which originates a million miles closer to the sun, there may be a time lag involved.

All is as predicted as a result of the coronal holes which appeared a few days ago. The magnetosphere and ionosphere are reacting in a normal manner.

[edit on 8/5/2009 by Phage]

Spaceweather.com just posted about some High Lat aurora. So you guys may get a good show tonight. Grab a blanket and snuggle up and watch.

reply to post by Cruxshadows


Now that is cool! The simulator may be proving to be an effective forecast model. According to it the auroral activity isn't going to last long though. An alert for Kp4 has been issued.

[edit on 8/6/2009 by Phage]

reply to post by Phage


Makes sense to me! Thanks Phage. Appreciate it. I was thinking about that myself and figured, meh. That's the most likely explanation as opposed to a "complete magnetic field collapse." Thanks again.

The Australian Government Space site has issued a warning today.

Issued an Alert Today

Last updated 06 Aug 2009 16:00 UT
SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 09/03
ISSUED AT 06/0509Z AUGUST 2009
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
OUPLED WITH A STRONG SOUTHWARD TURNING IN THE IMF BZ.
FOR 06 AUGUST 2009

The magnetosphere has had a huge amount of pressure on it today.

reply to post by questioningall

You do realize that Aug 06/0509 was about 12 hours ago don't you?

You left out this part of the notice:

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
06 Aug:Quiet to Unsettled

www.ips.gov.au...

NOAA issued the same notice.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1593
Issue Time: 2009 Aug 06 0523 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2009 Aug 06 0530 UTC
Valid To: 2009 Aug 06 1600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

A K-index of 4 is mild activity, not even the level of a minor storm. While the speed of the solar wind is high, the density is low so pressure levels are low as well.

I pointed out the southward turn of the IMF in this post (about 12 hours ago)
www.abovetopsecret.com...

[edit on 8/6/2009 by Phage]

Where was she a couple weeks ago when we had a K Index of 6? Only thing that happened then was pretty pictures like this was taken.

Also, It was forecast to go to active levels. I posted the forecast about 24 hours ago. She is just a very thick headed person.

Hey QA,

Remember two pages back that you were proving a point by quoting from the reader comment section of PopularMechanics....

Popular Mechanics.com

Take a look at the latest addition of the readers comment section of that site.....

Well, i believe, the earth in fact isn't round but flat and the magnetosphere is a not what you fine people make us believe what it is. It is the energy of the almighty and trying to explain it is just foolish.

.....

I said that i could tell everybody the world was flat and they would add it to their site but that doesn't mean you should take it as gospel....

I await you reaction with great anticipation but i have a feeling i'll get disappointed once again..

Have great day!!!!!

Peace


[edit on 8/8/2009 by operation mindcrime]

Before QA posts this later on today. The magnetosphere was forecast to "take a hit" from a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream today. There is even a slight chance that there could be a minor geomagnetic storm as well. It does not mean the world is going to end. It does not mean you need to panic. It was forecast 3 days ago and it just simply means the sun is doing what the sun has done since the beginning of time.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on day one (19 August) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 August) as the CH HSS subsides. Quiet levels are expected on day three (21 August).

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01

There will likely be an alert issued later today for a K index of 4 possibly even a 5. So just go on about your normal day. This has happened before and will happen again. Its normal.

Here is what a Minor Geomagnetic storm can do(K Index of 5)

G 1 Minor Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible. Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)**. Kp = 5

Geomagnetic Storm Levels

K Index of 4 isn't even considered a storm. So no worries.


[edit on 19-8-2009 by Cruxshadows]

Looks like we've got some sort of activity today. I do not know if it was forecast, but K index reached 5 if not 6 in the last few hours:

so in other words, the magnetopshere is in poor shape and Earth's at risk?

reply to post by platipus


Ummm, that's not even what I was inferring. The Magnetosphere is doing what it's supposed to or you would have probably been roasted alive by solar radiation.

I was only mentioning it because I don't believe that it was forecast (although it very well might have been) and there was a significant jump in the Planetary Kp Levels/Readings.

reply to post by Paroxysm

A result of coronal holes. It was forecast
spaceweather.com...

reply to post by Phage


Cool! Thanks for the link Phage. I guess we have our answer on what caused the influx today. This is pretty cool:

SOLAR ACTIVITY: In the pits of a century-level solar minimum, the sun is setting new records for quiet. But really, how quiet can a 1027-ton nuclear explosion (a star) ever be? The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded some lively action on August 25th and 26th:

[edit on 30-8-2009 by Paroxysm]

reply to post by Paroxysm

There was a K6 alert at 1641UTC (about 8 hours ago). But the K index dropped rapidly right after that.

There was a southward turn and an increase in density at that time. Things have settled down a lot. Bz is pretty much neutral, density is low. Speed is a little high (to be expected from coronal holes) but down from where it was.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...



[edit on 8/30/2009 by Phage]

I have open a new thread "3 huge Earthquakes, 3 big disruptions in magnetosphere!!!" on the link below:
www.abovetopsecret.com...