SCI: The new flu, an analytical approach

Here's a link to the other thread with more numbers...Hmmm

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Get the guy from the other thread over here, he might contribute.

-Zyk

From the BBC RSS feed this morning, and from the journal, "Science"

"A third of the world's population could be infected with swine flu, expert projections suggest.

Researchers say swine flu has "full pandemic potential", spreading readily between people and is likely to go global in the next six to nine months.

Although one in three who come in contact will likely become infected, the Imperial College London team declined to estimate the death toll.

The study based on Mexico's experience is published in the journal Science.


This virus really does have full pandemic potential

Professor Ferguson
The number of laboratory-confirmed swine flu cases has reached 5,251 in some 30 countries around the world, with 61 having died from the disease, the World Health Organization has confirmed.

Working in collaboration with the WHO and public health agencies in Mexico, the researchers assessed the Mexico epidemic using data to the end of April and taking into account factors like international spread and viral genetic diversity.

Lead researcher Professor Neil Ferguson said it was too early to say whether the virus will cause deaths on a massive scale, or prove little more lethal than normal seasonal flu.

His "fast and dirty" analysis of Mexico's swine flu outbreak suggests that the H1N1 virus is about as dangerous as the virus behind a 1957 pandemic that killed 2 million people worldwide.

But it's not nearly as lethal as the bug that caused the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which caused an estimated 50 million deaths in 1918.

Its full impact on the UK is not likely to be known until the annual flu season in the autumn and winter, when a "really major epidemic" can be expected in the northern hemisphere, says Professor Ferguson.

FROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME


More from Today programme
Prof Ferguson, who sits on the World Health Organisation's emergency committee for the outbreak, told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: "This virus really does have full pandemic potential. It is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months and when it does so it will affect about one-third of the world's population.

"To put that into context, normal seasonal flu every year probably affects around 10% of the world's population every year, so we are heading for a flu season which is perhaps three times worse than usual - not allowing for whether this virus is more severe than normal seasonal flu viruses."

His study suggests swine flu could kill four in every 1,000 infected people.

Professor Ferguson said his findings confirmed that decisions must be taken swiftly on vaccine production.

"We really need to be prepared, particularly for the autumn. At the moment, the virus is not spreading fast in the northern hemisphere, because we are outside the normal flu season, but come the autumn it is likely to cause a really major epidemic.

"One of the key decisions which has to be made this week by the world community is how much do we switch over current vaccine production for seasonal flu to make a vaccine against this particular virus? I think those decisions need to be made quickly."

reply to post by CultureD


Star for you.

Great info!

-Zyk

reply to post by Zykloner



The Deaths are starting to lag the infected. Is the potency of the disease starting to fade?
or are they reporting all the deaths?

Here's WHO's newest? charts...

en.wilkipedia.org

upload.wikimedia.org...

[edit on 5/12/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Looks like my estimate for today of 5500 might be close.

-Zyk

reply to post by Zykloner


I think your estimates are pretty dang close Zyk. Kind of a drop-off yesterday, but they are testing fewer cases now in US and Mexico. It will be hard to ascertain how accurate the official numbers are going forward for a while.

www.doh.state.fl.us...

Here is the link to Florida's Department of Health updates. They are no longer suggesting closing schools, and only a handful of "sentinel" doctors are referring samples to the CDC or state labs.

The press frenzy is over, so we will have to see what information we can still get.

Check out this site...go through all the page...

Mexican flu projections: worldwide report updated to May 6
Published on May 12th, 2009
www.gleamviz.org...

reply to post by Hx3_1963


It is sad..

Official number now: WHO: 5251+ 409 new cases reported by CDC but not yet on WHO = 5660

Guess my number on 5500 was pretty close

Still get a little kick of the fact that i have more or less been right all the way.

-Zyk

[edit on 12-5-2009 by Zykloner]

Alabama's number finally moved today on the CDC website. We have 31 probable cases (which, by the way, has not been updated in over five days) and 7 confirmed.

After reading the Arkansas thread and what others have said about states only testing those in hospitals, I'm thinking your numbers are extremely conservative. I'm not knocking the job you've done at all. I just think they are holding back the true numbers for fear of panic.

www.adph.org...

I don't post often, but I'm watching this thread daily. Keep up the great work!

Alabama's number finally moved today on the CDC website. We have 31 probable cases (which, by the way, has not been updated in over five days) and 7 confirmed.

After reading the Arkansas thread and what others have said about states only testing those in hospitals, I'm thinking your numbers are extremely conservative. I'm not knocking the job you've done at all. I just think they are holding back the true numbers for fear of panic.

www.adph.org...

I don't post often, but I'm watching this thread daily. Keep up the great work!

Thank you all for following my work.

Cant make new graphs now as i am at work.

WHO forcast today: (based on last graph)
6500 infected.

Thats also close to the prediction of my first function.

-Zyk

[edit on 13-5-2009 by Zykloner]

You were pretty close... numbers for May 14 6:00 GMT: 6497 cases confirmed with 65 deaths... Or about a 1% kill rate... What a joke.

If they're now only testing "severe cases", is it safe to assume that after the backlogged samples get tested that all of the new "confirmed" cases are actually hospitalized cases?

I suspect that the next time we'll hear anyone talk about this with any fervor will be if/when it starts to hit people close to home.



even if 360,000 were "sick" by now, that's what .1% of the US population, and still absolutely insane growth. The odds that you'd know someone with it are very small, but it would still be an epicly huge pandemic in the making, a few months (weeks?) from complete exposure.

[edit on 14-5-2009 by Chilkoot]

I've attempted a different sort of chart that plots velocity and acceleration based on the WHO data. The problem is understanding id :-).

The velocity and acceleration use the right while the infections are scaled on the left. It seems to be showing that acceleration has leveled off and is constant. Infections and velocity are rising.

So does this add any information for anyone?

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/7964d4a75060.jpg[/atsimg]

(edit: I obviously don't now how to embed a picture...)
(edit: I think I figured it out :-))

[edit on 15-5-2009 by joel1900]

[edit on 15-5-2009 by joel1900]

reply to post by joel1900


Great graph. I like the idea of velocity and acceleration. i think the acceleration has slowed because of the flu season ending, and because they are not aggressively testing any longer.

In Florida, they have entirely cleaned up the backlog of tests and are now stating there are no more 'probable' cases. While that is going on, at least 4 people I know are showing all the symptoms, but probably will not go to the doctor.

This will continue to be a boring subject now until next winter, or until it morphs with another Avian strand as predicted.

Looking at this analytically What if this does nothing in the fall?


Everything happens for a reason, we may not understand, but it happens for a reason. So we have a mutated flu like disease just creating itself and getting people sick for what reason? Purpose what does it represent? What is it designed to do? Their is something about this that has been strange from the start. Something about this flu, that does not fit into anything. On the surface of this story if you get it you sick a few days and recover. What's the story on the inside? What's the real deal? Why did nature or whatever intelligence create this virus. Especially when right now it shows no real reason to exist except to get ya sick.. Something very weird about the swine flu.. We may never know about it either.. That I think is why many have over reacted about its exposure to our World.. This thing could be like HIV... Years later you contract something else from it.. This virus has a purpose...

[edit on 15-5-2009 by Adrifter]

reply to post by Adrifter


Good point, and I think the same could be said for all viruses. They are not alive! They are little nanobots that hijack living cells, replace the managing mechanisms with their own, reproduce a bunch and finally go away.

For bacterial infection, the bacteria is trying to live and reproduce, but viruses are tiny lifeless quasi-machines. Why do they do what they do!?!

Originally posted by Vitchilo
You were pretty close... numbers for May 14 6:00 GMT: 6497 cases confirmed with 65 deaths... Or about a 1% kill rate... What a joke.

I'm not sure what is supposed to be funny?

A 1% kill rate is huge. If 1/3 of the US population caught it and 1% of that third died there would be 1 million deaths! IN THE US ALONE!

That my friend is serious, definitely not funny.

And these numbers and graphs show it to be exponentially spreading. I truly hope that this trend does not continue. When or if the number of infectious start getting into the hundreds of thousands maybe people will take some precautions and it will slow down.

[edit on 15-5-2009 by 2 cents]