SCI: The new flu, an analytical approach

All data is the updates from WHO in their update archive.

You can find ithere

I am sad to see that my prognosis of 3700 is way of and too optimistic, will uppload new graphs soon with functions fitting the last update aswell.

Stay tuned

-Zyk

reply to post by Zykloner


Another death reported this morning.

Wash. State Man Becomes Third U.S. H1N1 Death
Costa Rica's Health Ministry Reports First Death From Swine Flu
May 9, 2009 11:59 pm US/Eastern

Tokyo (CBS) - Washington state health officials say a man in his 30s is the first person in the state - and the third in the U.S. - to die from what appears to be complications of the H1N1 virus, also known as swine flu.

The state Department of Health says in a news release that, like the first two U.S. H1N1 victims, the Snohomish County man had underlying heart conditions and also viral pneumonia at the time of his death May 6, but that he also had swine flu and it is considered a factor in the death.

"This death is tragic. Our thoughts are with all those affected by this man's passing," said Governor Chris Gregoire. "It's a sobering reminder that influenza is serious, and can be fatal."

More at Links...

US, Costa Rica swine flu deaths reported
28 minutes ago
www.google.com...

SEATTLE (AP) — A Washington state man with underlying heart conditions became the third person infected with swine flu to die in the U.S., health officials said Saturday, while Costa Rica reported the first swine flu death outside North America.

Japanese authorities, meanwhile, scrambled to limit contact with their country's first cases, and Australia and Norway joined the list of nations with confirmed cases of swine flu.

A Snohomish County man in his 30s died on Thursday from what appeared to be complications from swine flu, the state Department of Health said in a statement. The man had underlying heart conditions and viral pneumonia at the time of his death, but swine flu was considered a factor in his death, the statement said.

The man, who was not identified, reportedly began showing symptoms on April 30.

His death and the death of a 53-year-old man in Costa Rica on Saturday brings the global death toll to 53, including 48 in Mexico, three in the United States and one in Canada.

Press Release on highly infectious Swine Influenza Virus in Mexico and other Countries
source: Republic of Botswana (9/5/09)
prgovbw.blogspot.com...

C14) 27/4/09: PRESS RELEASE ON HIGHLY INFECTIOUS SWINE INFLUENZA VIRUS IN MEXICO AND OTHER COUNTRIES.

As of April 24, 2009 WHO reported a flu like illness in Mexico which was responsible for more than 882 cases and 62 deaths due to pneumonia, following the surveillance that started on the 18th March, 2009. The virus responsible for this infection was confirmed to be Swine Influenza type A/H1N1. This death toll rose to 103 by the 27th of April, 2009. So far beside Mexico, USA, Canada, New Zealand, Israel, France, Spain are also affected by the virus.

This virus is contagious and spreads from infected pigs to humans and from human to human through respiratory droplets.
It may also be spread when a person touch respiratory droplets on another person or on an object and then touches their own mouth, eye or nose, before washing their hands.

Hmmm...and I ask again...what's the right numbers?!?

[edit on 5/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Hey I just went to the FluTracker link that you provided in your footer. Obviously from the maps this is primarily a North American problem, but quickly spreading throughout the world.

You have to wonder if this is bio-terrorism or not...I think it is.

ALSO, someone posted that China just had it's first confirmed case. A 30-year old student. There goes the planet!

You must wonder how China is handling this right now. I wouldn't be surprised if they quarantined (or terminated) the whole village where this infected student lived...

There are over a billion people in China. If the Swine Flu spreads uncontrolled there, and then mutates, the whole planet is in serious trouble.

reply to post by windwaker
Yep I agree...

Due to them becoming the worlds el-cheapo manufacturing plant, they really have some festering pools of what-not, that is ripe for something like this...not good at all

Although I had read previous statements from the WHO that up to 1Billion could be infected, I had assumed that they (in their infinite wis...err...caution...) meant on the second wave.

The article on the previous page states that this could happen by July. With even a 1% mortality rate (by no means extreme) that's 10 million dead worldwide. By July.


Holy crap. Thus far ~5% have been hospitalized Let's hope that once the hospitals get swamped that mortality rate doesn't get close to Mexico's.

...seeing as it primarily targets the most virile age groups, I wonder how many jobs this is gonna open up in the US?

reply to post by Hx3_1963


That is why i have not updated graphs yet today.
Even official numbers dont seem consisten at the time.

I will take a look at the graphs later today, waiting for WHO evening update.

We now have two confirmed cases in Norway aswell, cant see anything on WHO update about that.

Stay tuned

-Zyk

[edit on 10-5-2009 by Zykloner]

Great thread. Thank you very much for your hard work.

We'll soon see if this is hyped up as it seems to be....

CDC: H1N1 flu now in 45 states
8:18 p.m. EDT May 10, 2009
&siteid=rss]marketwatch

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The Centers for Disease Control said Saturday that there are now about 3,000 suspected and confirmed cases of the H1N1 flu virus in the U.S., spread across 45 states and the District of Columbia. Of those cases, 1,639 have had their diagnoses confirmed by a special laboratory test, and 104 have required hospitalization. Most of the patients who have required hospitalization also suffered from other complicating medical conditions. To date, there have been only two deaths, both in Texas. The CDC said they remain wary of the virus because it is a new viral strain and appears to be as easily transmittable as the seasonal flu. Health officials have said they are concerned the H1N1 virus might mutate into a far more dangerous illness in the coming months.

Edit: 2 Deaths should read 3

104 of 1,639=6.34%

reply to post by Zykloner


Speaking of inconsistent reports...on the local NBC Nasville news, they reported a thousand cases in TN. This was on TV, not online.

Well this morning I believe I reported US 3113 on FluTracker...

Now it's 3348...a 235 person increase...a ~9.3% increase?

I would expect a similar increase tomorrow as well...200-250...

3,600? 24 Hrs from now?

Also notice Mexico...3,899...Hmmm...

Here's one to watch...no WHO/CDC per say, but...I have a couple of tracker sites on my signature...

2009 swine flu outbreak
en.wikipedia.org...

Hmmm...I feared as much...a nice premise...and *splat*???

[edit on 5/11/2009 by Hx3_1963]

OP, can you put all updates in the first post to make it easier to compare with the previous graphs? Thanks.

I "Hope" he returns to fulfill yer request....

It's been awhile now...Hmmm...

reply to post by Hx3_1963


I realize why they are not trying to contain this thing now. It's too late...It's impossible to contain.

WE ALREADY HAVE IT.

You can thank the success of "Star Trek" this weekend for spreading the virus even faster. I saw it before opening day on Thursday and the theater was without sickness, but I saw it again yesterday and a couple of people in the theater were sneezing and coughing...Makes you wonder.

And along with this, the bastard seems to go after people in their prime. The last two deaths involved people who were 30 years of age. Does this monster kill only the healthy?

Thank god I am not in good shape and I am becoming over-the-hill!

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
I "Hope" he returns to fulfill yer request....

It's been awhile now...Hmmm...

Sorry for lagging behind and being slow on updates.

One of the reasons is the inconsistency of official reports, and the fact that that they have been incredibly slow at giving updates the past days.

I promise i will take a look at it after work today, that would say about 16:00GMT.

Cant put graphs in first post as i cant edit it anymore( edit disappears after 12 or 24 hours i think.)

Stay tuned for updated graphs later today.

-Zyk

Great job with the thread. But what really bothers me is that the CDC number still shows Alabama as having 4 confirmed cases. If every other state is like Alabama, then the numbers are most definitely extremely low. While the "official CDC confirmed count remains at 4 cases, the State has tested and announced there are 31 probable cases in Alabama (With 20 of those being in Madison County). And the updates seemed to have slowed dramatically.

www.adph.org...


What does that do to your numbers?

Although, everyone I talk to in the medical profession (including family members who are nurses) are down playing this and saying it is no big deal.

Hi

I am sorry to say that i only got two graphs for you today.

Infected and one week forecast
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/0d80d972ea51.jpg[/atsimg]

WHO has started lagging seriously behind on data updates, and the two bumps at end of graph shows why my updates have been slow lately as official data seems inconsistent.

Deaths
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/590eb622fa49.jpg[/atsimg]

The death numbers has been jumping to much to give a prediction, if i trendline it i get problems because of to little data, and it is hard to do calculations on since the updates are slow and increase so various from day to day. I want to get a trendline, but i dont want to create one which might not even closely represent the truth. I belive a few days will fix the problems though.

It is quite fun to see that the evolvement so far has actually followed my calculations on page one pretty close, so i might go back to that type of function tomorrow if it continues. (instead of a trendline 3deg polynomial function)(Any comments on that getreadyallready?)

WHO forcast for tomorrow:

5500 infected

-Zyk






[edit on 11-5-2009 by Zykloner]

[edit on 11-5-2009 by Zykloner]

reply to post by Zykloner
Here's a post I found interesting...someone else is keeping track as well

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Zykloner


Nice updates but it looks like you labeled the dates of the graphs forward a month, because the 6th month is June.

Lol

Sorry about that, went a little fast in the turns

Thanx for pointing out. Maybe we should tip the poster with the numbers to come over here, he might contribute!

-Zyk

[edit on 12-5-2009 by Zykloner]