Warning: Exponential Numbers of the Swine Pandemia

reply to post by xEphon


Worldwide swine flu cases top 800

www.usatoday.com...

reply to post by Mexican against NAU


800 (787 to be exact) out of a few billion people worldwide?

And again people are so caught up in the number of infected. Of course there are going to be new infections. ITS THE FLU!

But to be fair to that number:

The higher number of cases is a result of ongoing tests on previously collected samples; not newly reported and confirmed infections, the WHO said.

CNN

The number that we need to worry about it the mortality rate, and despite what you would think this is right on par with the Normal Flu if not less.

During a typical year in the United States, 30,000 to 50,000 persons die as a result of influenza viral infection. Frequently cited numbers are 20,000 deaths each year, and 37,000 annual deaths. About 5-10% of hospitalizations for influenza lead to fatal outcome in adults.

A different pattern may emerge in a pandemic. The 1918-19 pandemic affected mainly healthy young adults and seemed to spare those at the extremes of life. In the USA, the mortality rate during the 1918 pandemic pandemic was around 2.5%. (*edit to add - Of all infected)

Undetected cases might imply that infections with H5N1 influenza may be more common than previously thought, suggesting that the overall case fatality rate may not be as high as previously suggested.

Source

Ok 7 days since my first exposure and 24 hours from the second...

I am still here I feel Fine.

Mexico city streets are still deserted...

Flu and vaccines have a sad history! Please view Dr. True Ott at www.H1flu.com. I choose not to take flu shots or flu drugs. A Texas doctor writes that "N-Acetyl Cysteine" will help prevent this flu and shorten its length. (1200 mg. a day for adults, 600 mg. day for kids.) Mothers Health Food Stores here in So. CA sell their brand for about $8.00 (600 mg., 60 capsules) Two days ago I went there to buy some. The clerk said that I was the second person that day to ask for it. Then she said that the first person felt that he had this flu!! Prepare and pray. . .but please do not panic! Blessings!

Consider this IMPORTANT WARNING

Tamiflu Sounds More Dangerous Than Swine Flu

"Swine Flu Forum" at "Above Top Secret.com"
The True Epidemic Approaching: Mass Tamiflu Poisoning

www.abovetopsecret.com...

MASSIVE TAMIFLU POISONING IS PREDICTED. They give great details. My post showed why the flu is a problem and how to stop it:

In 1960 Dr. DC Jarvis wrote a best selling paper-back that warned the way we are feeding our animals and fertilizing our foods is changing the PH of our blood from slightly acid to alkaline. Viruses cannot thrive in the acid blood, but thrive in alkaline.

He prescribed: 2 teaspoons of apple cider vinegar mixed with 2 teaspoons of honey; then add one glass of water and sip during 3 meals or between. Tastes a bit like Sprite, you can adjust the dose. It quickly regulates the blood. The honey is also slightly acid and you cannot over-use acids in your system. They even end acid indigestion.

His paperback books are still available at Amazon
The book is: ARTHRITIS AND FOLK MEDICINE
Another of his books is: FOLK MEDICINE in which he also shows that our bodies are craving the acid; that we why we drink so much cola and alcohol. The acid from the honey and apple cider vinegar ended the cravings.

I noticed the comment: "During a 10 step process which takes a year to complete and involves some fairly precarious high explosive work, Shikimic acid is extracted from the plant and serves as the active ingredient in Tamiflu. " They used an acid. Theirs has severe side affects including a tendency to suicide.

Children and animals naturally crave the acid taste (sweet tarts, pickles etc.) He described diseases in animals that resemble bird flu and mad cow disease, and told how to deal with it.
The apple cider vinegar also worked well on people and animals that are hyper or aggressive, even a mad bull. That means that what Tamiflu makes worse at $100 a dose can be eliminated and avoided with apple cider vinegar and honey. If you are suffering from different ailments, these inexpensive books would have inexpensive remedies you might want to try.

I try to turn people from the employment lifestyle to the garden paradise lifestyle. It solves world problems created by the employment lifestyle including healing our bodies. Divine-Way.com

reply to post by xEphon


I am a cautious by nature. I rather prevent the possible outcome which logic portrays, than hurry to call this matter a non-issue.



As time passes we will see how the virus plays. However, the best response to this contagion is CAUTION, until we have facts and figures that show the extent of mortality.

STOP COUNTING CASES. My friend just got out of the hospital she was almost dead. Tested negative for h1n1 and the regular human flu. She had a variant and the test does not work. If she died she wouldnt even be a statistic on the h1n1 charts. You guys counting numbers need to understand the testing, the test is genetics based flu mutates constantly which means the tests do not work for long. The numbers are USELESS. All you people counting cases and saying this is over hyped call Mexico and ask them why their first patient tested positive for SARS. People not understanding testing is seriously getting on me nerves its like showing a horse dying of dehydration water and the horse wont drink to save its life.

[edit on 3-5-2009 by Memysabu]

Exponential growth is the growth of populations, interest in banks, infections during an epidemic, and so on. It sounds scary. If this keeps up, then at some point, more people will be infected than have ever lived on the earth.

The thing is, it never keeps up. It is said that a single bacterium can double in a half hour. At that rate, this mass of bacteria would quickly outweight the whole world, then all the mass in the Universe. Uncontrolled growth eventually uses all available resources, and then the population collapses for lack of food.

Similarly, in an epidemic or pandemic, at some point, you run out of susceptible people to infect. Everyone is either immune, or has succumbed to the infection. There are no new victims to infect, so the pandemic dies out for the time being.

If you check out the death rate of this virus, it appears that only people in Mexico are dying, and that the mortality rate isn't as high as had been feared. Flu (and many diseases) will spread exponentially, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the world.

Pandemic: : occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population

Pandemic is a numbers game. Not a death game. Its also:

* Emergence of a disease new to a population.
* Agents infect humans, causing serious illness.
* Agents spread easily and sustainably among humans.


This flu is not over. Its here to stay. It has already jumped backed into the pig population (Canada reported it, most likely in other nations as well).

Its spreads easily, it is novel it is pandemic by the rules of WHO.

Tonight we find out what has gone on to this point and how the experts feel about it as it is now. This can change by Tuesday or by October when we have the opening salvo of the flu season for the northern hemisphere.

The problem is that we have already reached the limits of testing - we can only confirm a finite number of cases, in several states in the USA they are admitting that they are not even taking samples from suspected cases to test since the testers are back logged.

According to the BBC's map we have 898 confirmed cases and 20 confirmed deaths. That is just confirmed, for each confirmed we could have one unconfirmed or have 20 unconfirmed (or theoretically more).

If its one to one then we only have 1796. If its 20 then we have 17,960.

What the WHO and CDC and others are trying to do at this time is make a predictive model, they are also trying to weed through the cases of sick people to get a better idea of not just confirmed cases but how many suspected cases.

Since this particular virus appears to have mild symptoms in some patients all the way to fatality (due to complications I assume) then it is more difficult to tell how many people are really sick.

If this was ebola or other hemorrhagic virus we would have a clear symptom list and a much better idea of how many cases are really out there. If people are bleeding for no injury, then they have it an obvious symptom, readily diagnosed via symptoms without a test. Since this is a flu and appears to not be deadly currently or have well defined symptoms that are easy to separate it from other flus, testing is the only sure fire way to know how this one is acting.

Since deaths are seemingly rare, being part of only the opening cases (the virus most likely mutated to a safer form earlier on). To call this a deadly pandemic or one worthy of heroic measures is unnecessary, potentially counter productive.

Why its taken this long to call a level 6 is because too many people out there think Pandemic means high death rate. That means a full pandemic in their minds is a panic situation.

Government has to be careful to not scream wolf. Recall the Post Katrina worry to call all incoming hurricanes as potentially a cat 5 and to evacuate everyone? The reason being is because if the hurricane does little damage people will be less likely to evac when the big one really comes.

Same applies with disease - to over react now may result in under reaction in a deadly pandemic situation later down the road.

reply to post by kix

Originally posted by kix
Ok 7 days since my first exposure and 24 hours from the second...

I am still here I feel Fine.

glad to hear you are doing well but can you please go stand on the other side of the room. no the room next door to this one

scary to hear what this thing can do to a citys economy. if mexico city is empty that means commerce has come to a stop.

Confirmed cases of H1N1 virus approach 900

(CNN) -- The World Health Organization cautioned that the swine flu outbreak could gain momentum in the months ahead, despite claims by the health secretary of Mexico -- the epicenter of the outbreak -- that the virus "is in its declining phase."

The outbreak is only about 10 days old, and even if the illness is declining, it could return, said Gregory Hartl, the WHO spokesman for epidemic and pandemic diseases, at a briefing Sunday.

"I ... would like to remind people that in 1918 the Spanish flu showed a surge in the spring, and then disappeared in the summer months, only to return in the autumn of 1918 with a vengeance," Hartl said. "And we know that that eventually killed 40 million to 50 million people."

Mexican authorities believe the virus's most active period in Mexico was between April 23 and April 28, and Mexican Health Secretary Jose Cordova described the outbreak as being in decline in his country.

As of Sunday, WHO confirmed 898 cases of swine flu -- known to scientists as influenza A (H1N1) -- reported in 18 countries.

Mexico has 506 confirmed cases, including 19 deaths, WHO reported.
....................................

reported numbers are on the rise...so it is safe to assume that with the back log of cases to be confirmed by the cdc, and non-reported cases...the actual number is a lot HIGHER

edition.cnn.com...

[edit on 3/5/2009 by Mexican against NAU]

The big five Mexican drug cartels have killed more people than this in a week. Is gang-related violence getting 24/7 media coverage, garnering the attention of everyone in the world, and provoking a worldwide response? Hardly. Obviously gangs don't follow the same propagation patterns as viruses, but I will never, never get over how easy indeed it is to whip the populace into a panic, or worse yet, how the media and governments cherry-pick which issues to beat like a dead horse/hammer into our skulls while almost completely ignoring others of similar or greater magnitude. A few influential groups - media moguls, government policy-makers, business magnates - latch onto one story and suddenly everything else temporarily (or permanently) vanishes from the collective consciousness. Be prepared, not deluded, brainwashed, zombified, and panicked.

Hey what happened to the bet guys i told this now over no more flu

If the "most active" dates of 4/23-4/28 in Mexico are true, then that would also lend itself to the idea of 2 days pre-symptom, plus 2-3 days of infecting others with symptoms before being either bedridden or hospitalized.

Throw in a 9-15 day incubation period, and that would mean that we're still a few days shy of seeing another wave.

reply to post by EtSolveMundi


I am sure the number of people losing their homes, the homeless, will grow as well as crime, but I will stick to the topic I chose, which is mathematical projections of the flu pandemic.

So far, the numbers are playing as projected. Besides, it seems that the US will follow Mexico's actions. Just read this so you know what I mean:

ALERT! H1N1 'so widespread , some containment efforts cost more than they’re worth' UNBELIEVABLE!!!

Swine Flu School Closures Not Recommended by U.S.

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu shouldn’t close schools unless so many students or teachers get sick that the institutions can’t function, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, reversing earlier advice.

The agency today changed its recommendation that schools consider closing if they suspect swine flu. That advice led to the closure today of at least 726 schools in 24 states and the District of Columbia, keeping about 468,000 students out of class, according to the U.S. Education Department.

The Atlanta-based CDC now says sick students should stay home and shuttered schools should reopen. The original recommendation was made before the virus had spread widely in the U.S. with symptoms usually no more severe than seasonal flu, said Richard Besser, acting head of the CDC. Because the illness is so widespread, some containment efforts cost more than they’re worth, he said.

“Anyone who closed their school based on our recommendation, we no longer feel that closure is warranted,” Besser told reporters today on a conference call from Atlanta. “The big focus now is on identifying children who are ill” and asking parents to keep them home for at least seven days, Besser said.

All they are doing by this, is guarantying that this virus remains & mutates into a deadly mix come September!

Aldous Huxley was right, you control the media, you control the masses... everyone is a slave to the television, what it says, goes... last week it was suicide to let this virus flourish, and now they're saying 'oh it's no big deal, let it infect the planet'

Originally posted by 4Yahshua
prevent this flu and shorten its length. (1200 mg. a day for adults, 600 mg. day for kids.) Mothers Health Food Stores here in So. CA sell their brand for about $8.00 (600 mg., 60

Geez, thanks for telling me, I had a bottle right here, I did not know that it helped with Virus's. I got it for another purpose.

Originally posted by Memysabu
STOP COUNTING CASES. My friend just got out of the hospital she was almost dead. Tested negative for h1n1 and the regular human flu. She had a variant and the test does not work. If she died she wouldnt even be a statistic on the h1n1 charts. You guys counting numbers need to understand the testing, the test is genetics based flu mutates constantly which means the tests do not work for long. The numbers are USELESS. All you people counting cases and saying this is over hyped call Mexico and ask them why their first patient tested positive for SARS. People not understanding testing is seriously getting on me nerves its like showing a horse dying of dehydration water and the horse wont drink to save its life.

[edit on 3-5-2009 by Memysabu]

People who die of this flu will be dying of SARS or SARS related symptoms.

The case numbers are just numbers in a bucket. Just because you dipped your net in the water and came up with a few minnows doesn't mean that you found all the minnows in the lake. The numbers are just indicative of where it is, and where it is going, potential saturation in an area, and how fast it is moving.

Well it appears that after recent developments I need to revise my sig down from 'Swine Flu deaths 1 or 2 per day' to 'less than 1 per day'

Regarding natural remedies: anyone who finds themselves in the 'thick of it' without access to fancy health food stores and MLM type herbal preperations, then just grab a handful of garlic and eat it raw. 6 cloves a day will clear your body of just about ANY virus, bacteria or fungus that isn't good for you, whilst at the same time PRESERVING your friendly intestinal flora - something the medical drugs are not able to do.

Garlic lasts for a while, and you can juice it and add olive oil or vinegar to preseve it longer, so next visit to the supermarket for those emergency ration canned veggies and spam, get yourself a few pounds of garlic.

Doctors are being warned to prepare for a second, "much worse" wave of swine flu hitting Britain in the autumn, the Health Secretary has disclosed.
www.telegraph.co.uk...

Genetic Material of Virus From 1918 Flu Is Found
www.nytimes.com...

One part of the answer is that the Spanish flu virus passed from birds to pigs and then to humans, a mode of transmission that is thought to produce the most dangerous strains of influenza viruses.

1918 killer flu secrets revealed
news.bbc.co.uk...

"The virus caused three waves of disease. The second of these, between September and December 1918, resulting in the heaviest loss of life...Although most people who were infected with the virus recovered within a week following bed rest, some died within 24 hours of infection."

[Spanish] Flu victim exhumed after 85 years
news.bbc.co.uk...

Lethal secrets of 1918 flu virus
news.bbc.co.uk...

The preserved body of a flu victim buried in Arctic permafrost was exhumed, and they painstakingly extracted the genetic material needed to work out the structure of the H1N1 virus.

Then, in a maximum "biosafety" facility at Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory they reconstructed a fully functioning virus, and infected macaque monkeys to see what would happen......

"This research provides an important piece in the puzzle of the 1918 virus, helping us to better understand influenza viruses and their potential to cause pandemics."

FACTBOX: Economic costs of a flu pandemic
www.reuters.com...

The World Bank has estimated that more than 70 million people could die worldwide in a severe pandemic.

Are millions of human lives really at risk because of swine flu or is it 'Disaster Capitalism' ?

From May 2006 - Donald Rumsfeld's Swine Flu Vaccine "Tamiflu" Could Paralyze or Kill You, While It Makes Investors Rich
upswing.newsvine.com... ch

The following article regarding UN plans to curb human population growth is from the UN Chronicle, December 1, 1994.

findarticles.com...

Against a backdrop streaked with controversy and under the intense spotlight of unprecedented world media attention, the international Conference on Population and Development reached consensus--despite some widely divergent viewpoints--on a worldwide strategy to curb global population growth over the next 20 years and achieve sustained economic growth and sustainable development.

Originally posted by EtSolveMundi
The big five Mexican drug cartels have killed more people than this in a week. Is gang-related violence getting 24/7 media coverage, garnering the attention of everyone in the world, and provoking a worldwide response? Hardly. Obviously gangs don't follow the same propagation patterns as viruses, but I will never, never get over how easy indeed it is to whip the populace into a panic, or worse yet, how the media and governments cherry-pick which issues to beat like a dead horse/hammer into our skulls while almost completely ignoring others of similar or greater magnitude. A few influential groups - media moguls, government policy-makers, business magnates - latch onto one story and suddenly everything else temporarily (or permanently) vanishes from the collective consciousness. Be prepared, not deluded, brainwashed, zombified, and panicked.

Life goes on. People are interested because it may effect their daily lives, and they may be able to do something about that if they know.

Gangs in Mexico? The regular person has little ability to do anything about that. The ability we do have is limited by things like the fact that it is an internal matter.

So, deluded? Zombified? No. Just realistic. Why do you care about what is happening in gangland Mexico - what does THAT information do for you?