Warning: Exponential Numbers of the Swine Pandemia

reply to post by pmbhuntress


Ok I had this is the same exact thing that hit around DC area about a month ago, I caught it along with a ton of other people, it was like the flu, however, it gave sore throat, chills, fever and much mucous and stopped up sinuses along with body aches and overall malaise and crappy feeling.

This thing was highly contagious, I am talking it spread through the office like wildfire, downtime was around 4 or 5 days and some people I also know had it, thought they got rid of it and it came back on them, I had it and this has been about a month ago and I am just getting rid of the stopped up sinuses, we thought it was the crazy weather at first but the chills and aches along with it was chalked up to some sort of virus and before the Swine flu hit we were all talking about it like what the heck was it.

reply to post by Fatality


It all makes sense, doesn´t it?


The set is ready to drop the dollar and nobody will be allowed to protest or to go to the banks to get their money because large gatherings are banned.

If the North-American Union and the Amero will start on January 1st, 2010, then this must happen, whether a LIE or REAL THREAT.

I say prepare just in case and get your money from the banks as soon as possible.

Make your own colloidal silver and stop the panic.

My wife is mexican and has regular contact with her family in mexico over the phone. The story that is told by her family and friends as acertained by them is that it originated in Guatimala. They are also under the impression that it was artificially created and has little to do with the swine at all. They beleive that private entities in the United States are responsible. I do not know what to think but it is interesting that little is mentioned of Guatimala, since it has an alarming number of deaths , as reported by Mexican television before the global alarm. Mexico also had sent a large number of anti-viral doses to Guatimala as a preventitive measure against the spread of what at the time was an unknow virus.

Originally posted by Mexican against NAU

Originally posted by grey580

Originally posted by Power_Semi
Isn't mexico quite a hot country?

It seems to have done alright there.

Death toll in mexico according to the news is 150.

Normal flu kills alot more people yearly than that. 150 is a drop in the bucket compared to the amount of people that die from normal flu.
Hundreds of thousands die annually from the flu. During a pandemic millions die worldwide.

Like I said. I'll wait and see before I act.

You are comparing oranges with apples and ONE WEEK against A YEAR.

Thats Exaclty how I think of it....1week compared to a Year is a BIG DEAL to me!

Originally posted by spikey
reply to post by paxnatus

 

Well...there's the thing.

You say 'Boost your immune system now!'

I say, while a stronger immune system *may* help you not to get infected in the first place (although it probably won't), that very same *strong* immune system is going to be the very thing that helps to kill you.

It's the immune system, in trying to fight off the virus that actually causes your lungs to fill with mucus and blood. Which, as you know will make it hard to survive. No air, no life.

If you allow your immune system to decline, or even suppress it, *YES*, you may be more susceptible to infection initially, but because your immune system is weak or weakened, it probably won't kill you.

Ironic isn't it.

Let's not die of irony.

Loved your last line!! However, it will not be the cytokine response that will take us out, but the secondary infections, that you often see with influenza.

Only a few will have an overactive immune response, and those will be the
people that already have problems with allergies, esp. your asthmatics.
Not a good idea to lower or weaken your immune system. As this virus continues to spread it may go through more mutations, everyone will not have the exact same reactions.

I stand by what I said earlier. *PREVENTION* will be KEY!


Love and Blessings,
Pax

I believe that we are being lied to about the severity and amount of these flu cases in the US. I thought this from the beginning but I had no proof, so I decided to file the thought and move on. LOL

NOW I HAVE PROOF. Yesterday my daughter in law from NM called extremely upset. It seemed my 8 year old grandson had all the symptoms we have heard about and was not able to go to school. She called his pediatrician and made an appointment for that afternoon. When she got to the dr's office it was full of sick children. She saw the PA because the doctor was in an emergency with an infant.

The PA told her that my grandson had the "FLU". When she asked "How do you know it's not the Swine Flu?" she was told that "We don't, but it takes 14 days to verify and we are simply telling folks to take their children home and advise us immediately if the child gets worse." Mind you it's not even flu season.

It seems to me that because no US citizen has died from this "flu" yet, the states want to keep it quiet. I wonder if it's because summer is starting and a great deal of the revenue in NM comes from the tourist trade.

Regardless, as usual we are being lied to.

Originally posted by venividivici
Unfortunately you are not accounting for exponential awareness and exponential precautions. In other words, once it becomes mainstream, more people will become aware of how to counter act it and that will undoubtably cause the infections to level off or decrease.

It is mainstream and all over the news in our country so everybody does know about it.

Mainstream has nothing to do with it and how are people supposed to counter it without a vaccine ?

It's going to continue until there is a vaccine or it just kind of becomes so far spread that is weakens.

Holy Crap this just opened up a bunch of worms in my own head.

I pray that doesn't happen. If it does it cause a major setback in the doctors finding cures. If everyone sick and at home, who's going to run the country?

It's like a Plague. And I've heard two other people besides myself call it that.

cm

Realistically, I am downgrading my own, personal threat level on this one, folks.

The virus has not met any pre-estimated growth-rate curves for a pandemic, nor has it attained a sufficient potency to make it disturbingly lethal.

My fear is that this little bugger, who is clearly not a true threat, might just get juiced up on some virus steroids and come back to bite us in the fall.

Like the man said, wash your hands and cover your mouth.

Originally posted by pmbhuntress
It doesnt seem right to me either. They had an outbreak of what they called a deadly BUG. Here in North Carolina just a few months ago. My daughter and son were both infected by it. It had high fever and sounds identical to this swine flu crap. Yet when my daughter went to the Dr. I was told there had been 27 deaths at that time just here in NC. Yet we heard nothing about it on TV.

My daughter almost died from that bug. She was in the hospital for 2 weeks. There were many folks there with this same bug. Yet once again it wasnt on the news. I also became hospitilized with it. We both are well now, my son whom had it, faught it without having to go to the hospital. But when I got out of the hospital they were talking then about there were over 70 deaths here from it. So why wasnt that bug, on TV? And was it the same bug?

All sympotoms of the killer BUG were the same as the swine flu virus going around now?? Does that mean it was here in the US for months before they started telling folks it was in Mexico?

What happened to the killer bug that was killing babies back in Jan? Are they the same bug?

There are just far to many questions.

Ok I had this is the same exact thing that hit around DC area about a month ago, I caught it along with a ton of other people, it was like the flu, however, it gave sore throat, chills, fever and much mucous and stopped up sinuses along with body aches and overall malaise and crappy feeling.

This thing was highly contagious, I am talking it spread through the office like wildfire, downtime was around 4 or 5 days and some people I also know had it, thought they got rid of it and it came back on them, I had it and this has been about a month ago and I am just getting rid of the stopped up sinuses, we thought it was the crazy weather at first but the chills and aches along with it was chalked up to some sort of virus and before the Swine flu hit we were all talking about it like what the heck was it.

I was in SAN FRANCISCO in january when I returned here (mexico city) 5 had a flu like never before, a Incredibly sore throat, body aching everywhere, Headaches and a runny nose.
I get the flu every 3 to 4 years, this time I got sick a week and then after riding this Flu I got sick again by another version of the flu and I was 3 days "OUT", not as bad but I was ure I caught this bug on the USA.

NOW I AM SURE I WAS EXPOSED TO THIS INFLUENZA VIRUS LAST WEEK AND TODAY.

Let me explain.

I was with one client that has a very interesting job in Mexico National Univertsity, in Gene splicing and secuencing.
HER SON HAD THE FLU , he was put in the hospital last Thursday and was very sick, according to Her (my client) the flu is very bad and what really kills you is that it lowers your inmune system dangerously and leaves your lungs as an easy target for Pneumonia (what really kills you), so they gave her son (a healthy 17 year Old) 2 cocktails one for the Flu and one for Pneumonia, he is now Home, She and her daughter were with me for 30 minutes talking, we said that masks and N95 are useless, because they know the virus penetrates the N95 and most probaly suspended dropplets contacting your eyes are the best way to get It.

She had the samples from her son taken to the lab in the University and Her son HAS THE FLU. they told her that this virus had an outbreak in NY and NC SC and Washington and has been "seen in the USA since September/october"

She told me that if caught early with good treatment YOU WONT DIE, but they are very preocupied since thsi strain could easiily mutate to a very dangerous or even incurable strain, hence the Media assault, and the Mexican measures.

As of now hospitals are reporting no more deceases or a huge number of new sick people.

SO ther e you have NOW i KNOW of someone sick that has not died and know at least 3 other that have been exposed to the virus and are not sick (since last thrusday)

I have been exposed twice last week and today, Ill let you know If I get sick or not.

In the mean time I feel fine......so far..

You are right, this is exponantial.

But who really dies from it ???

It's a flu, a bad one ???

Not even sure of it.

At least when we are occupied with the swine flu, we don't watch the economy, nor the real news.

Did you heard about protest in Washington on the IMF summit, arrests ???

Geithner's magic trick with the banksters ?

That Israelis sank an iranian ship in read sea ?

About an abort bombing of Iran, on april 17th by IAF, Russian gave Iranians the informations ?

ABOUT SANOFI AVENTIS : creating a facility where they going to make vacines from grippal infection and pandemias....in Mexico ???

www.mypharma-editions.com...


There was no bail-out for drug industry like there was for bankers.

This pandemic looks like one to me.

I crunched the numbers, 41 million??? So Two million infected in the US a day? Ok....

For the love of god.

Just because we don't have a natural immunity to this strain of flu does not = death

All that means is that people have an EASIER time catching the damned thing. For the most part our bodies will fight it off just like it does any other flu.

BTW if this thing was as bad as some would like to believe, we would be seeing infection rates into the thousands by now. There has been nothing exponential about this.

In my opinion you are better off getting this flu the first time around.

Currently there are four medicines for viral infection. The Swine flu is immune to two of them.

Pandemics cycle around, recurring in the same population several months between occurances.

After a good chunk of the population has gotten treated with both antivirals which currently work, it is a fair assumption that they will no longer work, on the next recurrance.

Those who had the first version will have some immunity developed.

Those who get the later versions will have no drug treatment to fall back on.

The good news is that you need an antibiotic prescription for after the flu more than you do an antiviral, in order to survive.

Most people who died in the 1918 pandemic died 4 to 6 weeks after infection with the flu, which lasts about 2 weeks from start to finish. They die of pneumonia which is a secondary bacterial infection brought on by the damage to the lungs, and the weakening of the health.

I wonder, is this flu itself producing a mortality rate comparable to the mortality rate from pneumonia after the spanish flu? It seems like that is what the numbers are saying. That would be a very bad thing, and might be why the WHO is alarmed.

Spanish flu had a death rate of .6%

You might speculate a 2% total death rate, if this has a .6% deathrate from the virus alone. (counting all suspected mexican cases, and all deaths, not just confirmed.)
2% is my own number, just my speculation.

That would come to 135,545,795 dead with a 100% world population infection rate. That's 135 million dead worldwide.

This may be why the WHO is sounding the alarm, and the numbers do not seem so very very bad compared to seasonal flu. The deaths in Mexico seem to have happened very quickly, not 4 to 6 weeks after the flu.

We will know the whole story in in 6 to 8 weeks.

Originally posted by newyorkee
My wife is mexican and has regular contact with her family in mexico over the phone. The story that is told by her family and friends as acertained by them is that it originated in Guatimala. They are also under the impression that it was artificially created and has little to do with the swine at all. They beleive that private entities in the United States are responsible. I do not know what to think but it is interesting that little is mentioned of Guatimala, since it has an alarming number of deaths , as reported by Mexican television before the global alarm. Mexico also had sent a large number of anti-viral doses to Guatimala as a preventitive measure against the spread of what at the time was an unknow virus.

The first line of defense all over the World for just about everything is to blame the USA. Someone farts in the room in Iran? Must have been the US. Seriously, its ridiculous.

Originally posted by xEphon
BTW if this thing was as bad as some would like to believe, we would be seeing infection rates into the thousands by now. There has been nothing exponential about this.

First of all - there probably is. The numbers of confirmed will never come close to capturing how many cases there really are. Even if that was possible, no lab could ever keep up.

Secondly - most flus are transmitted by cough, sneezing, symptoms.

However, because this flu knocks people on their butts when they have those symptoms they are at home in bed. That means that most of the transmission you are seeing is coming from the incubation period shedding of the virus. The incubation period of this one is quite short. And it usually isn't that contagious. This one seems to be unusually contagious in the incubation period.

That may help contain this virus in the long run. On the other hand, the short incubation period means that it is mutating very rapidly. All it needs to do is either become a longer incubating virus OR just not knock people off their feet quite so quickly.

The labs will not be able to keep up. They'll be looking for new cases in new areas, new cases that are apparent human-to-human confirmation, and cases that make for a clear community infection profile (no clear connections), and cases that are severe. Other tests will be delayed for weeks or months.

Further, the numbers you are seeing confirmed are delayed numbers. They are already 4-5 days old. Some of the original cases were well enough to give interviews already when you first heard of them.

This virus could peter out. Entirely possible. But the numbers are there. The science of the lab is meant to confirm and illuminate.

This isn't Schrodinger's Flu, the quantum mechanics version of virology, where if it isn't measured it doesn't exist and it didn't happen.

[edit on 2009/5/3 by Aeons]

These figures have just got to be bogus. I live in N.E. Indiana and i think there are about 5 cases confirmed in the whole state? Now just this evening (5/2/09) at around 8pm my daughter took one of her friend to ER. for another reason, they were there for about 3hrs
had seen about 26 people come in with flu systems, all ages from children to older adults.
The nurses there told her it's been like this all day..Fortunatly nothing serious..Don't know
if it's some people just get a belly ache and think they have the H1N1 . Or is it there is mass hysteria going on..Either way i look at it medical profession is making big $$$$$.
and Pharmacies are making truck loads $$$$$$....I think i read somewhere about 3 weeks ago some pharmacy out on the east lost several vials of flu virus used for testing..more this goes on i'm getting to think something diabolical is going on???? Or some kind of bio terrorism...

Originally posted by Mexican against NAU

Originally posted by Ashcool007
Millions my a**


if it reaches 100,000 i will give you guys 10 bucks

Right now it´s a small fire...

It may spread. WAIT! It is spreading in various countries now, or it did a few days ago. It is now just starting to grow. And those are FACTS. You can see the maps.

Remember that just because you don´t have symptoms right now, it does not mean you are infected.

People not aware of the DEADLY POTENTIAL of the virus, will help spread it among those he loves.

.......................................................

Hey, multiply $10 bucks by millions.

Once the numbers grow, fools will wake up and say they were aware of the potential all along and will ask you for their money.

Me? I want the money in SILVER. The DOLLAR is crap and very probably the center and main reason for this FLU PANDEMIC.

[edit on 2/5/2009 by Mexican against NAU]

Sorry mate Just trust me on this one you will be laughing after some days
that u were afraid of this it is an Engineered Virus to make some money thats it thats is all it is money money mate

reply to post by Ashcool007


I wish I was thinking like you do.

See? I´m in México and the economy in México and the US are going down the drain and now this, adding to the fact that Canada, USA and Mexico are supossedly mergin without asking us if we approve of their plans, by January 1st, 2010 along with the Amero...

reply to post by Aeons


I have no doubt that the official numbers are greatly lagged behind the "real" numbers, but even so, they are no where at the point of being exponential. Look at Mexico. The virus has been around for a while now. Most likely into the second month or more considering the time that it took to identify the "outbreak." Since I can only go by official and suspected numbers, there is nothing in those figures to suggest the virus is rapidly spreading. In Fact, NYT: Outbreak in Mexico May Be Smaller Than Feared
Forbes: Mexico sees flu stabilizing

I said since the beggining that this will be a wait and see, and as of now, I'd be more scared of the normal flu that this one: CNN: Regular flu has killed thousands since January

As for the incubation period: This Flu has the incubation period of any normal flu. 2-5 days. Nothing abnormal about it.

Of course this flu will mutate. They all do. Thats why we have a new strain every year and people need vaccines every year. And this is why the government was so proactive in finding patient 0 for this strain. Now we will have a vaccine to offer some form of immunity when the next mutation rolls around during next flu season- whether or not to take it is another issue.

There are a lot of things to be worried about in this world. Getting this strain of flu is not one of them.