Warning: Exponential Numbers of the Swine Pandemia

CDC confirms 141 cases of swine flu in 19 states in U.S., according to the agency's Web site. Quote

28 April there were 99 confirmed cases
29 April there were 154 confirmed cases
Yesterday 30 April there were 212 confirmed cases.
Today 1 May there are 478 confirmed cases
Source:
www.news.bbc.co.uk

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH:
99 to 154 (growth 1.55)
154 to 212 (growth 1.376)
212 to 478(growth 2.254)
Lets assume that growth remains constant at an average of those growth figures (1.822)
That means 2 May expected confirmed cases will be 871
3 May 1566
4 May 2850
5 May 5187
6 May 9440
7 May 17,180
8 May 31,267
9 May 56,907
10 May 103,570
I'll let you do the rest of the math for later periods.

This is an exponential growth rate - as are most disease spreads until the disease wanes or until the population is immune or dead.
No, this isn't WWIII nuclear war type doom where its all over in 3 hours. No not even a 9-11 terrorist attack, over in about a day.

Pandemics and Epidemics start off slowly, and gain momentum and speed as time progresses.

By May tenth over one hundred thousand cases (based on confirmed cases only) can be expected. If this is a non stop 100% communicable disease, then by 20 May we could be looking at 41,300,109 cases in the US alone! Yes you read that correctly 41 million.

Do the math.

Its not in the media as prevalent as is should be. Its not because too many woo woos would freak out. Its not being covered or handled correctly by CDC, WHO and the international community to stave off economic complications due to panicked shopping and panicked 'calling in sick' or work stoppages.

Even with a low death rate of say 0.05% we are talking a potential 20,650 deaths. Even with a mortality rate of just ).01% we would see 4,130 deaths of the infected population of 20 may.

That's just 20 days down the road.

This is why a pandemic is a 'bad thing' it has full access to the whole population, it springs up in unexpected places, it spreads and it is passed in a growth rate 1.2 to 2 is the expected for flu until about 1/3 to 1/2 of the population has fallen ill.

Pandemics are more dangerous than just epidemics due to the way viruses can mix with other viruses (like this one mixing with another flu type) that can lead to more seriously novel viruses that could be more contagious, or have a longer airborne life or be more deadly or be all three combined.

Its the math that is all important. Its not what has happened in the opening week its the longer term, the month - the two months the year down the road that makes this potentially a very, very bad thing.

[edit on 1/5/2009 by Mexican against NAU]

[edit on 1/5/2009 by Mexican against NAU]

[edit on 1/5/2009 by Mexican against NAU]

Mod Edit: All Caps – Please Review This Link.

[edit on 1 May 09 by Gools]

[edit on 1-5-2009 by SkepticOverlord]

I'm sure there are a heck of a lot more then just those 'confirmed'. We are hearing that people are not being tested.... that testing is just being saved 'for the severe cases'.

If your math calculations were able to have the correct figures to start with, I'm sure your end numbers would be much higher.

'They' are hiding the real numbers from us all.

That's awesome math. I wonder if that's how it's going to work out. Eventually I think it will plateau... but I'm actually pretty sure epidemics usually are exponential like that.

Thank you for this thread. I can tell a lot of work was put into it.

Scary thread but a good one! Star and Flag



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[edit on 1-5-2009 by DontTreadOnMe]

Excellent post!

While it may not be as predictable as your mathematical evaluation, the danger of it should not be dismissed.

There have been flu strains that have killed as many as 36,000 Americans and infected millions... Most common flu viruses are anticipated and vaccines are readily available if necessary.

This new swine flu is an unknown, there is NO vaccine and at best one that is available could be MONTHS away.... Given your math and if correct then the vaccine will be far too late.

[edit on 1-5-2009 by Walkswithfish]

People in Mexicali, México, where I live, think this flu is non-issue.

I say better prepare.

You can act in any of this ways. I recommend the second.

1. Panick sex, shopping and senseless acting.
2. Preparing food and water, and a nice place to ride the wave while the cleansing goes on, putting brain over emotion.
3. Act carelessly thinking this is a non-issue until it's too late.

This is brilliant. The WHO should read it.
Flag and star.


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[edit on 1-5-2009 by DontTreadOnMe]

Now thats just scary.


Flag and Star for you.


♥
Dax



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[edit on 1-5-2009 by DontTreadOnMe]

Unfortunately you are not accounting for exponential awareness and exponential precautions. In other words, once it becomes mainstream, more people will become aware of how to counter act it and that will undoubtably cause the infections to level off or decrease.

I read somewhere yesterday that there was 13,000 samples still waiting for testing at CDC ...The Dr tests then they have to send to CDC then they confirm.

So some of those numbers could have included these tests that were waiting for confirmation by CDC .......

But thanks for the info ...I believe it is pretty serious too even though so many are playing it all down ..

I cant get the cards out of my mind from the NWO game Illuminati ..
CDC card
Epidemic card
Population control card
www.cuttingedge.org...

Originally posted by venividivici
Unfortunately you are not accounting for exponential awareness and exponential precautions. In other words, once it becomes mainstream, more people will become aware of how to counter act it and that will undoubtably cause the infections to level off or decrease.

You're correct, I am not accounting for exponential awareness and precaution. No.

Why? I see many, may I say MOST peole are calling this flu a non-issue, even in this forum. In Mexicali, M'exico, where I live, the streets are alone since most people are at the beach or drinking and having a nice carne asada with their families. Nobody is preparing, nor are they indoors. This long weekend from May 1st-5th, is like a mini-vacation.

In the US, they say the government has made the strain, which very well could be right, but they forget to prepare just in case.

I think the baby should not be thrown with the bath water...

Whereas that math is scary, you are assuming that the saturation level remains the same and that each generation of the virus remains as contagious.

Look, evenly distributed, you are correct. However, the fact that it is only in 19 states at the moment makes its spread limited. Similarly, we have not seen massive growth patterns in cities (YET).

SO. The question we have to ask ourselves is WHY the government is taking such a massive effort for such a low-level outbreak. My thought is that we know a great deal more about how this virus will spread or that we know that the virus becomes more deadly in successive generations.

I would say that, using your numbers, we are looking at a relatively small growth over the next week. If containment is successful, we will not see exponential growth. However, in the event of an urban outbreak, we will see a spike.

I am VERY interested to see the manner of spreading and how virulent and deadly this thing becomes. If it dilutes over generations, what's the big deal?

Mod Edit: Big Quote – Please Review This Link.

I have seen chemtrailing continues over my city. Who tells you it's not CHEMTRAILS the via of dissemination?

Once this pandemic is full blown, it will be AIRBORNE. My city has NO WAY to give funeral services to 100 people in one day. Mortality rate is normally 7 people and funeral services could service 20 at the most. What is going to happen to bodies? Who will pick up the corpses if this flu grows?

[edit on 5/1/2009 by semperfortis]

Originally posted by Mexican against NAU
Once this pandemic is full blown, it will be AIRBORNE. My city has NO WAY to give funeral services to 100 people in one day. Mortality rate is normally 7 people and funeral services could service 20 at the most. What is going to happen to bodies? Who will pick up the corpses if this flu grows?

Do you remember the heat wave that hit Chicago back in the late 80's?

They had so many deaths that the city was overwhelmed with bodies, their solution was to move in several refrigerated tractor trailers and then filled those up with bodies.

With a potentially lethal virus and bodies the more practical solution would be to incinerate them. Of course it is all speculation and may not come to pass, and if it does it will likely be following a rather strict government ordered and enforced quarantine and in that event the bodies will likely be a federal problem. Maybe that will be Obama's ultimate test?

reply to post by Walkswithfish


Sure, I see incinaration as the only way a month down the road. Maybe less.

I just posted this in another thread but it fits better here.

I'm not a fan of math and suck at it but some numbers I have put together from reading different threads doesn't sound very good.

Most normal flu's have about a 10-20% chance of getting you sick when you come in contact with an infected person or area. This h1n1 variant sounds like it has about a minimum 50% of the people who come in contact with it get infected with it.

Eventually almost every person will probably come in contact with this based off the prediction maps of how a pandemic spreads when it has that high of a ratio of infection. I wish I could find this link again but hx3 borg dude posted it before I think.

If you take the small number of 2% death rate or the higher number of a 6% death rate like was reported above you start to see some scary numbers. That's like 18 Million deaths in the US with a 100% infection rate or 9 Million deaths at a 50% infection rate.

I would imagine that as the system becomes more taxed you would see the death rate percentage rise so you could see as much as 10% die off or 15-30 million people. combine that then with the other deaths that would happen because of the strains put on the health care system and its feasible to have almost 20% of the US population die off based on the numbers I have read in different threads( some would be normal deaths others would be preventable deaths that are left untreated because of lack of ability to utilize overcrowded hospitals like a hear attack).

They say that if 20% of a population were to die off you would probably see total anarchy until panic settles down.

wow ... awesome numbers (if their even the real numbers) and good work! ... i'd be curious to see them if it hit a lot more major cities ...

we'll see ... hopefully you're not encouraging people to freak out and hide in their houses

off topic: Do You Have Swine Flu?(apparently i do)

[edit on 1-5-2009 by baseball101]

If you are trying to spread fear, you are doing a good job, keep up the good work, your logical mind is doing quite well there.

Relax Guys, it's just Mother Earth shaking off some of it's human fleas. As in a dog, it will be healthier after the population of parasites is reduced

I dont think those numbers will come into fruition,i still regard this as fear mongering by the media,for what purpose i dont know,but the MSM always have a purpose.If im wrong i'll eat my non existent hat and quite obviously be rather more worried than i am right now,which is not alot frankly.