Huge earthquake strikes Italian heart

reply to post by vox2442
OK...ya got me...I was speculating and wildly guessing...

My bad...

I was just remembering playing with jig-saw puzzles when I was younger...

If ya push or pull on any of the corners it distorts all the pieces...they're all inter-connected...

I'll try to clarify a little more about the story of the prediction:
Radon is known as seismic precursor since thirty years, at least, it wasn't the guy who discovered it.

From a recent paper, titled:
"Fast Fourier Transform based Earthquake Precursor Analysis of Radon in N-W Himalayas"
by
Gupta, D. Shahani, D.T. Khan, S.
Indian Inst. of Technol., New Delhi;

Study of the radon concentration in soil and water, and periodically occurring anomalies in emitted concentrations of radon has been identified by many workers as a potential precursor to earthquake event. However, event prediction through the so far used techniques has significant failure rates and false alarms associated with it.

Fast Fourier Transform based Earthquake Precursor Analysis of Radon in N-W Himalayas


Here, you can fid a lot of papers and articles about it:
Google scholar results

It is obvious that we are still far away even from the elaboration of a model, we are still in the field of theories: not to mention the case in which a decrease in groundwater radon was detected before earthquake: see, for example

"Anomalous decrease in groundwater radon before the Taiwan M6.8 Chengkung earthquake"
by
T. Kuoa, K. Fana, H. Kuochenb, Y. Hana, H. Chuc and Y. Leed

from Department of Mineral and Petroleum Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan
Central Geological Survey, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taipei, Taiwan
Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taipei, Taiwan

On December 10, 2003, an earthquake of magnitude (M) 6.8, the strongest since 1951, occurred near the Chengkung area in eastern Taiwan. Approximately 65 d prior to the 2003 Chengkung earthquake, precursory changes in the groundwater radon concentration were observed at the Antung radon-monitoring station located 20 km from the epicenter. The radon anomaly was a decrease from a background level of 28.9 Bq L−1 to a minimum of 12.2 Bq L−1.
Observations at the Antung hot spring suggest that the groundwater radon, when observed under suitable geological conditions, can be a sensitive tracer for strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake.

/dgjgx9

What is known for sure is that the more is the distance between two faults underground, the more is the quantity of radon released to the surface, but in order to use it as a reliable seismic precursor, you have to know the exact temporal distance between its major peak and the related earthquake: and this is the point, because this cannot be done, not just in Italy, nowhere. If it was a reliable way to make Earthquake predictions, it would have been used all around the world.

But let's see what would have happened if the prediction of the guy would have been taken seriously, because we are talking about this specific case, and there are claims that it was predicted: in the following map, circled in black the area interested by the Earthquake, colorized in red the area in which damages, collapses and victims were reported.

According to the guy, they would have evacuated Sulmona (pointed by the red arrow) eight days ago: ( see article here )
so he wouldn't have saved any life, since Sulmona hasn't been hit.
But do you want to know to where most likely the evacuated people would have been moved?
To L'AQUILA, so today most likely, the inhabitant of Sulmona, which was NOT hit by the earthquake, would be part of the list of victims: would you call it a good prediction, or it's better that the guy shuts up forever? By the way, the guy was even incriminater for breaching the article Art. 658 of italian penal code (procurato allarme), for having generated an unmotivated panic wave in Sulmona and its surroundings' inhabitants ( see article here ): perhaps he was wrong because his education, his studies and his
knowledge have NOTHING to do with earthquakes, not sure though.
The director of the centre whith which the guy co works (as electronics expert) already stated, clearly, that the guy is NOT reliable and geologists, scientists coming from everywhere confirmed that there was no way to predict anything: neither the location, nor the date, nor the strenght.
It would be one of the best discovery for science, but at the status quo what the guy does it isn't even science, but pseudo-science. A serious analysis on Radon emissions can be found here,
RADON MEASUREMENTS IN FRIULI AND COMPARISON WITH THE SEISMICITY

Did they conclude that Earthquakes can be foresaid? No, they concluded that there's a relation between stron Radon emissions and some (just two in this case) strongest earthquakes, as well as they recorded strong emissions of Radon in total previous, contemporaneous and subsequent absence of earthquakes: and as said, this relation is known at least since 30 years.

If we would want to make sure that no one will be killed by future earthquakes in Italy, then we should evacuate, now and permanently, all the people living in the areas in red and orange

...or start building houses as they HAVE to be built there: see
Italy quake exposes poor building standards

I'll share the last update, from last Berlusconi's press conference, today:

Death toll: 207
Missing: 15
Injured: more than 1.000 (at least hundred of them are in very bad conditions)
Homelesses prediction from 50.000 to 100.000 )

The night was relatively serene, everyone was put in conditions to have some warm meal and a warm place in where to sleep.
There's also a very good news: 150 people were rescued during the night, almost all are in good conditions: but as we see from the death toll, also many more bodies were found
The rescue operations are predicted to end within 48 hours. Approximately, 5.000 people are involved in the rescuing activities, including firefighters, policemen, carabinieri, alpini, soldiers, doctors, nurses etc...: there's also a team of psychologists.
Berlusconi stated that Italy refused any foreigner help because it isn't needed right now (and actually now the emergency seems to have been covered in a satisfactory way) but he added that in the future, when they will start to rebuild, Italy will need help for sure: he also talked with Nancy Pelosi about this. There's also an EU fund for catastrophical events, and
Italy will benefit of part of it. But if they will spend the money in order to rebuild the houses using the same criteria, better to don't rebuild them at all. And i hope that it won't happen the same thing that happened after the Irpinia earthquake, were the money misteriously vanished and people were still living into containers even 23 years after the earthquake.
www.gazzettadisondrio.it...


[edit on 7/4/2009 by internos]

Oh ok. Thanks for that info, most of the articles I have read about him seem biased in his favor. People at work have been talking about him, we didn't know he predicted the location wrong as well. It's a little frustrating that there's still no reliable method to predict powerful quakes. I guess I was just being too hopeful.

I'm glad to hear that the disaster response has been so quick and organized, btw.

My sympathies out to the italians and i hope there is a speedy recovery and minimal damage from this.

Italian Earthquake Death Toll Exceeds 200 as Aftershocks Complicate Rescue
www.bloomberg.com...

The death toll in Italy’s deadliest earthquake in almost three decades exceeded 200 as aftershocks continued to rattle the mountainous Abruzzo region.
================================================
Village of Onna Flattened in Italian Earthquake, 10% of Population Killed
www.bloomberg.com...

The village of Onna was the town hardest hit by Italy’s deadliest earthquake in almost three decades yesterday, with virtually every building flattened or damaged and more than 10 percent of its population killed.

STRONG aftershocks rocked the Italian city of L'Aquila today, raining fresh lumps of debris as rescuers pulled out more earthquake survivors and the death toll reached 228.

The government rushed to provide shelter for survivors, and police began patrolling against looters. A 98-year-old woman who whiled away the long hours awaiting rescue crocheting was among the lucky few saved today. Another was a girl found alive after 42 hours buried in rubble. BUt hopes of finding others was fading.

Hospital sources quoted by Italy's domestic ANSA news agency said the morgue handling fatalities had taken in 228 bodies by nightfall.

Earlier, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi put the death toll at 207. Mr Berlusconi said 7000 police, soldiers and other emergency service personnel and volunteers were taking part in the frantic hunt for survivors.

Quake toll at 228 as aftershocks hit

Another one just now:

Magnitude 3.5

Region CENTRAL ITALY
Abrutian Apennine

Date time 2009-04-08 at 03:00:34.0 UTC

Location 42.28 N ; 13.43 E
Depth 2 km

Distances 67 km W Pescara (pop 124,135 ; local time 05:00 2009-04-08)

8 km SE L'aquila (pop 72,279 ; local time 05:00 2009-04-08)

[edit on 4/7/2009 by biomehanika]

11 EQs today in Central and North Italy today.

www.emsc-csem.org...

So why is the MSM not have some expert talking about the aftershocks? It is like they (the aftershocks) do not exist. I remember reading that CNN did cut their science-reporting budget recently....

Got so many coming the euro quake site can't even fill in all the info now...

www.emsc-csem.org...

and I see Mexico getting in on the action now...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Hmmm...and now S America...

2009-04-08 03:06:22.7 7.89 S 74.23 W 153 mb 4.6 NORTHERN PERU
===========================================
earthquake.usgs.gov...

[edit on 4/7/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Mexico and Northern Peru

2009-04-08 03:06:22.4 7.92 S 74.30 W 168 mb 4.6 NORTHERN PERU

reply to post by biomehanika
2009-04-08 05:31:52.1 47.28 N 6.53 E 2 ML 2.4 FRANCE
2009-04-08 04:27:40.9 42.26 N 13.46 E ML 3.7 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-08 03:06:21.1 7.91 S 74.36 W 153 mb 4.6 NORTHERN PERU
2009-04-08 01:20:36.7 16.02 N 93.42 W 135 mb 4.6 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
5.2 2009/04/08 00:59:14 46.348 151.535 30.8 KURIL ISLANDS
2009-04-07 15:13:59.2 14.24 N 90.55 W 10 f mb 4.4 GUATEMALA
5.1 2009/04/07 13:29:48 -6.976 129.425 69.7 BANDA SEA

Hmmm...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Ooops France just got on the list

2009-04-08 05:31:52.1 47.28 N 6.53 E 2 ML 2.4 FRANCE

Italy seeks survivors, prepares to bury quake dead
www.reuters.com...

L'AQUILA, Italy (Reuters) - Rescuers searched by lamplight in freezing temperatures for a second night for survivors of a quake which killed at least 235 people in central Italy, while relatives prepared to bury the first of the dead.

Thousands of survivors of Italy's worst quake in three decades passed a fitful night in tent villages as a series of strong aftershocks hit the mountainous region of Abruzzo, hampering rescue efforts and causing at least one more death.

The strongest tremor since Monday's quake toppled buildings, including parts of the basilica and the station, as the sun set on the historic mountain city of L'Aquila, which bore the brunt of the disaster in the early hours of Monday.

L'Aquila's mayor said the 5.6 magnitude aftershock left one resident dead while in Rome, 100 km (60 miles) to the west, furniture shook in the upper floors of buildings. A 76-year-old Roman man was reported to have died of a heart-attack.

"In the last two nights, I've slept three hours at most. I feel physically and mentally tired from the lack of sleep and the fear," said Ilaria Ciani, 35, spending the night in a large blue tent at a survivors camp in a sports field near L'Aquila.

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has declared a national emergency and sent troops to the area, set up 20 tent camps and 16 field kitchens to provide hot food and accommodation for 14,000 people.

Hundreds of emergency workers, many of them volunteers, used mechanical diggers and their bare hands to remove piles of rubble in L'Aquila and nearby villages devastated by the quake.

The death toll rose steadily throughout the day but rescuers burst into applause when a 20-year-old girl was found alive 42 hours after the quake in the ruins of a four-storey building.

"A rescue like this is worth six months work," said Claudio, a fireman from Venice.

More at Link...

Death toll in Italy quake rises to 250
www.reuters.com...

L'AQUILA, Italy (Reuters) - The death toll in the Italian earthquake rose to 250 during the night after 15 more bodies were pulled out of the rubble, the civil protection department said.

L'Aquila earthquake survivors confront bleak future
www.reuters.com...

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

2009-04-08 06:26:49.6 57.93 S 7.30 W 2 mb 5.2 EAST OF SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS
2009-04-08 05:31:52.1 47.28 N 6.53 E 2 ML 2.4 FRANCE
2009-04-08 04:27:42.5 42.30 N 13.43 E 2 ML 4.0 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-08 03:06:22.5 7.93 S 74.31 W 152 mb 4.6 NORTHERN PERU
2009-04-08 03:00:35.2 42.27 N 13.42 E 2 ML 3.7 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-08 01:20:39.6 16.03 N 93.27 W 153 mb 4.6 CHIAPAS, MEXICO
2009-04-08 00:59:14.0 46.32 N 151.58 E 30 mb 5.3 KURIL ISLANDS

hmm i thought everything would end yesterday but looks like earth quake is spreadin out more..

Yes, the toll climbed up to 250+, with 11 Missing people, more than 1.000 injured (at least hundred of them are in very bad conditions) and at very very least 25.000 displaced people:
It is so sad to have to update the amount of victims

A 5.3-magnitude temblor was recorded yesterday at 7:42 PM, generating panic and damaging further on buildings and infrastructures: most of displaced are lodged in tents villages located in L'Aquila and its surronding: despite now hotels rooms are available on the adriatic coast, almost no one wants to leave, i do understand them: but maybe it would be better to get far from there, because many aftershocks will occour in the next days, maybe weeks, maybe even months, no one knows it for sure
What is sure, is that there will be many aftershocks (after the major one more than 300 were detected): it's likely that all the aftershocks will be lower in magnitude than the major one, but there's even a very scary possibility: the so-called seismic couple, that despite is a rare occurrence, it already happened two times in Italy, over the same line: in both cases, the second major eartquake was tronger than the first one, and moreover the epicenter changed: that would have catastrophical consequences, for obvious reasons: hopefully, this won't be the case.

Tonight i was watching at some interviews with survivors: many of them are already planning how, when and where to rebuild their houses, but many of them are also dispirited: i wonder how sad can be to loose everything in twenty seconds, they have all to be very strong now.

I will share some very nice photos of children playing in the tent village: with them, some doctors specialized in Clown Therapy: the doctors reported that these children are almost all shocked: i find it nice that they are taking care of them.

Hm looks like it aint finished over here in the Pacific...

Had a 5.0 magnitude quake fairly shallow and close to shore here in New Zealand off the east coast of the North Island again around 11:12pm last night. Shook a few things in Gisborne supposedly.

So wouldnt be surprised if Italy and its surrounding region got a few more shakes again soon unless they already have, unless this one we got was a rumble from the after shocks and the like Italy had yesterday or the day before.

Sure seems to be sticking around longer than youd think.

Not good...

**two thumbs up for the Clown Therapy** Poor kids


[edit on 8-4-2009 by BigfootNZ]

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 5.2

earthquake.usgs.gov...

* Thursday, April 09, 2009 at 00:53:01 UTC
* Thursday, April 09, 2009 at 02:53:01 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 42.548°N, 13.382°E
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles) set by location program
Region CENTRAL ITALY
Distances 70 km (45 miles) W of Pescara, Italy
105 km (65 miles) SE of Perugia, Italy
105 km (65 miles) NE of ROME, Italy
120 km (75 miles) S of Ancona, Italy

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


That was a strong one. Could be felt in Rome:

A 5.2-MAGNITUDE aftershock struck the same central Italian area hit by Monday's devastating quake that killed at least 272 people, the US Geological Survey said.

The aftershock, which hit at 02.53 (10.53 AEST), could be felt in Rome, some 100km to the west, witnesses said.

It was not immediately clear whether the tremor had caused any damage in the Abruzzo region shaken by Monday's quake.

Abruzzo region shaken by strong earthquake aftershock

reply to post by biomehanika
Keep out of harms way over there...

Making recovery harder but hopefully no one is in any buildings anymore...

Very Sad...
=================================
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time

* Thursday, April 09, 2009 at 03:14:52 UTC
* Thursday, April 09, 2009 at 05:14:52 AM at epicenter

Location 42.412°N, 13.419°E
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles) set by location program
Region CENTRAL ITALY
Distances 65 km (40 miles) W of Pescara, Italy
95 km (60 miles) NE of ROME, Italy
115 km (70 miles) SE of Perugia, Italy
135 km (85 miles) S of Ancona, Italy
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 5.4 km (3.4 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST= 38, Nph= 38, Dmin=6.6 km, Rmss=1 sec, Gp= 47°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
========================================
Italy earthquake rescuers hit by aftershocks
www.reuters.com...
==========================================
Summary:
Magnitude ML 3.1
Region CENTRAL ITALY

Date time 2009-04-09 at 03:41:55.0 UTC
Location 42.51 N ; 13.33 E
Depth 10 km
Distances 56 km E Terni (pop 110,412 ; local time 05:41 2009-04-09)
18 km NW L'aquila (pop 72,279 ; local time 05:41 2009-04-09)
7 km E Montereale (pop 2,837 ; local time 05:41 2009-04-09)
=========================
2009-04-09 04:43:09.0 42.51 N 13.37 E 9 ML 3.7 CENTRAL ITALY 2009-04-09 04:50
2009-04-09 04:32:44.8 42.51 N 13.43 E 2 ML 4.0 CENTRAL ITALY 2009-04-09 04:54
2009-04-09 04:29:45.0 42.50 N 13.35 E 11 ML 3.2 CENTRAL ITALY

Man is it ever going to stop

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]