Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age!

reply to post by Byrd

Wait, Batboy is dating Jenna Bush? That explains everything! Obviously Batboy is from the Middle East and probably Iraq, so it's no wonder George Bush invaded it in order to destroy the culture...

Seriously and to all, the problem we have with the climate is that we simply don't know and don't care to find out, because finding out means that we didn't know everything in the first place. All of the predictions are based on linear assumptions ignoring self-correction mechanisms. This morning at 5:00 AM, it was 27°F here. Now, at about 11:00 AM, it is 39°F.That's a 12° difference in 6 hours. By that trend, it should hit 65° by midnight, and by tomorrow at midnight it should be a balmy 110°!

That's obviously ridiculous, because the heating trend is not uniform (linear) and the fact that there will be cyclical variations in solar irradiation (day and night). There will also be moving warm and cold fronts enter and leave, these largely driven by any anomalous temperatures compared to adjacent air masses. The truth is that it will peak today around 4:30 PM at about 50°, drop tonight to about 32°, and then we have a cold front coming in that will keep the temperatures the next day below 40°. We know this because we have observed the weather for long enough to understand in some large part how the various weather systems interact. Still, our predictions are continually adjusted to compensate for variances and a temperature prediction is considered accurate when it is within 5° of the actual temperature.

Bottom line? It's called 'weather', and it's been changing for a very long time. It stays within a certain range without any assistance from mankind. The only problems we will see form these natural cycles and variations are changes in where we can grow food, where we can live comfortably, and where we want to be.

I want to be in Miami. It's warm in Miami.

TheRedneck

TheRedneck stated it very well. We just don't KNOW enough to be able to make broad predictions such as when the next Ice Age, or the Next Iceless Earth Period will be. In order to be able to make a valid prediction, you need several things:

1.) All of the contributing factors contributing to the event you are trying to predict.

2.) A long-term history of data for all of those factors.

3.) The degree to which each factor contributes, and the degree to which the interaction of ALL of those factors relate.

4.) A way to accurately measure the long-term actual performance versus the predictive model you have developed.

5.) The ability to make modifications to that model, if the actual measurements do not correspond to your first-phase model.


NO ONE, I repeat, no one admits to having all of the requirements to item 1 yet. In addition, actual measurements have, at best , only been going on for about 100 years, give or take a few years. When you a trying to develop a model that predicts on a scale of thousands and tens of thousands of years, that is hardly enough data.

Finally, much of the data that those who think they know what is going on us, is derived data, that is, data that was not directly measured, but rather inferred from things such as ice core drillings, fossils, etc. That is, in many cases, highly suspect data, as there often are other explanations for readings retrieved from such indirect samplings.

Suffice it to say that science, in this field, has just climbed out of the cave, and has a long way to go, before any reliable predictions can be made with any degree of certainly.

I would suspect their predictions as much as I would suspect the predictions of a carnival lady who stares into a crystal ball, or a blow-hard politician, who has millions to make on selling carbon credits.

More Evidence to point towards a new Ice-Age!

www.mlive.com...

Dated 19/01/2009