The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by nydsdan


I ****ing hope we are headed for a real recovery but I don't see the long-term fundamentals of the economy being robust. But I tend to have a negative/pessimistic mindset in general (its always good to know your own biases and "self-correct" to some extent, IMHO).

I think the market dislocation from the real ecomomy will only grow more pronounced. So yes, the market very well could take off even if the broader economy remains gloomy. There are two reasons behind my thinking here:

1) The big whales are sitting on a LOT of cash that will eventually make its way into the general markets and (eventually, one would guess) the broader economy.
2) The big boys have become more reliant on new trading algorithms and techniques that involve massive computerized trading on a level heretofore unseen. So it seems like the market movers are going to be able to "go their own way" even more than ever, despite the fundamentals. Of course, reform or new legislation *could* change this. (trying to keep a straight face as I type that.. )

Basically, I think we are in the midst of asset deflation that will bottom eventually or may already have bottomed. Then you will probably see the massive cash injections of the last few years make their way out of the big coffers and we will hit a "sweet spot" where it seems like everything is "back to normal." There will be lots of talk about a "goldilocks economy" again (though they'll use a different term no doubt) and doom and gloom will go out of style. This phase probably won't last long, however, because after all this liquidity gets unlocked and starts sloshing around, massive inflation will follow.

Only my best guess. As always, I offer no advice to buy, sell, or hold anything, or to use any particular strategy, etc. I think that 99% of even "market aware" people are still very much in the dark about the big picture, and this includes yours truly.


[edit on 3/5/10 by silent thunder]

reply to post by nydsdan


Now you are getting it.

All bad news is priced in.

Whats left, this dumb commercial real estate argument that has been 1000000% overplayed week in and out in the media? There is nothing really, maybe Italy Spain etc.. all good for maybe a bad week or 2 in the market.

Like I said in another thread, all we need are a couple of positive number initial claims in this same sequence we are in right now to really start busting on this next leg.

But watch out for that hidden head and shoulders I hear it's bringing us back to 5000 on the DOW from a lot of "reputable" members on this board.

Originally posted by silent thunder
reply to post by nydsdan

 

2) The big boys have become more reliant on new trading algorithms and techniques that involve massive computerized trading on a level heretofore unseen. So it seems like the market movers are going to be able to "go their own way" even more than ever, despite the fundamentals. Of course, reform or new legislation *could* change this. (trying to keep a straight face as I type that..

)

[edit on 3/5/10 by silent thunder]

So do you think the master's push the "up" button and they all buy and the "down" when they sell?

You have been suckered with all the rest thinking big bad algo's are dominating markets. Yes, maybe on the MILLISECOND level which are just liquidity providers. Lets get real.

Here is some real information on what HFT is.

www.investopedia.com...


Don't believe what you read in zero hedge or even better Karl. "flip flop" D.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

You have been suckered with all the rest thinking big bad algo's are dominating markets. Yes, maybe on the MILLISECOND level which are just liquidity providers. Lets get real.

Hrm. Your opinion is noted and appreciated as always, even if I don't agree 100%. I know this stuff happens very very quickly but I'm guessing the system is "leakier" than it seems.

So bottom line: do you see more cash sloshing around the broad markets (on a non-millisecond basis) in the next year or two or not?

[edit on 3/5/10 by silent thunder]

reply to post by silent thunder


When people say "cash on the sidelines" it means as opposed to what is in money market accounts vs. SP PE Ratio/SP 500 Dividend %. Or that is what I have been taught that means.

__

Speaking about algo's.. remember I program these, I know what they do (for the most part) and why they do it. Real HFT is nothing but a liquidity provider or they can also take liquidity away. They pay for doing that as opposed to getting paid to provide it.

What I am saying is it's easier for "bears" to say whatever they want and then call it that when they forecast incorrectly. "Oh, must have been algo's on low volume".

OMG, get real.. It's a fact that the biggest breakouts happen on the lowest volume. Something I have been saying on this thread for months, its been recorded over and over in history. What it represents is pretty much professionals playing games and moving positions while everyone else sits on their hands. Which if you think about it makes a lot of sense.

___

Last year my target was 11,000 - I missed that by 500 points, remember I called that in like June or something. I called 1250-1350 area in SP by end of year. That happens a lot sooner than later IMO and when we hit that is when the real "chop" begins. Then we will prob be in a range of 200 SP500 points with another touch of the 200 EMA Daily in 7-14 months.

This is just like 72-74. Again I have been saying this for close to 10 months. It's pretty funny how history always repeats in the market - it's just the hardest to see when it's down and it's equally hard to see while it's up. I can see that, but what I cannot see is people thinking this market should be cut in half percentage wise with 0% rates and a generational low just put in less than 1 year ago.

[edit on 5-3-2010 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 5-3-2010 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Thanks for the post. Your reasoning is sound and well-backed-up. The comparison with the 70s is interesting. Your prognostication seems reasonable to me. cheers.


[edit on 3/5/10 by silent thunder]

reply to post by silent thunder


It is almost a 1:1 correlation with early 70's. Don't forget, what was going on in the early 70's? Oh, energy crisis. Sounds a lot like this financial crisis, especially the way it traded. This might make a lot more sense now.


Finance.yahoo.com is one of the better places to look as they have a lot of free historical data.

Load it up with the 20 50 200 daily ema and take a look.

No better way of predicting the future in the market than with the past IMO.

It is easy to be a bear in this "economic timeframe" but a lot of people forget, actually most, that the market is looking 6-18 months ahead and always continually adjust for risk/future outcomes.

It makes more sense when you step back and think about it that way IMO. You know I am not a genius, I mean look at me but sometimes it is better to be "dumber" than smart when regarding US Indexes.

** Contrary to popular belief I swear I haven't been trying to bait you with bad information this whole time. One of my first posts on this thread as my former SN Xtc_savedmylife my purpose was to correct bad information that was reflected on this thread and to help people to give back information I was taught that would be almost impossible to learn from other sources.

[edit on 5-3-2010 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 5-3-2010 by GreenBicMan]

It will go up.
It is the self-pumping, narcissist market. And what else it is? The image of recovery? What recovery?
Just another bubble.

Look elsewhere for recovery. You have war at your southern border.

reply to post by GreenBicMan

by GBM
what I cannot see is people thinking this market should be cut in half percentage wise with 0% rates and a generational low just put in less than 1 year ago.

by GBM
No better way of predicting the future in the market than with the past IMO.

OK, so these two statements need to be reconciled. On the one hand you believe that the past is the best map for the future, on the other you seem to be ignorant to what happened after the intial collapse in '29. What happened is just exactly a 50 some odd percent increase followed by a final decline of 89% with many bear market head fakes interspersed.

So you're going to have to choose between the past or a new game where 'it's different this time'. You can't have both. Because once you say that there are game changing differences then you cannot use the past as your guide. So which is it?

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


This is not the collapse of 29'-31.

You need to take some time to look at some FIBO's before you make statements like that. I have already proved about 4000 posts ago that this is technically nothing like that. This was in response to one of HX's comments in fact.

I am not sure how you came to this conclusion. It is my guess you are just repeating something that you have read because if you look at a chart what you are saying is not correct.

Post a chart please from where you are referencing this information. But if you are just repeating nonsense then I am just wasting my time.

stockcharts.com...

Take a look there.. do you see a double dip crash or a 50% retrace crash? I don't.

[edit on 6-3-2010 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Wasting your time? Is your mom calling you to dinner or something?

No, I'm probably the one with very little time for you, what with having a home and a family and all the responsibilities of a grown man.

After regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half.

en.wikipedia.org...

I just want to make clear that I am not the one trying to have it both ways here. I don't think there is any historical precedent to what we're facing. We are the worlds largest debtor nation on a fiat currency. Neither of those was true going into the Great Depression, or coming out for that matter.

It is a simple fact that Trillions in Debt need to be borrowed and rolled over into perpetuity. Who will buy it? Foreigners already know it won't be paid back and aren't showing up at the auctions.

The pace can't be slowed down or the gov't will default. They better hope the Fed rolls over and prints the money. And if they do then inflation will get much worse because after all interest has to paid on that newly printed fiat. Even when ya print your own Debt, it's still Debt. Isn't Debt what brought us here? Have we solved our Debt problem?

Remember, the stock market in Zimbabwe went through the roof, but it didn't mean anything.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


Yes, HHHAE when you have to resort to trying to make fun of me is when you know you really have no position.

Fiat currency, blah blah blah,

Just say that you have no real idea. It's easier that way. Or you could just continue to be wrong. It doesn't bother me. In fact you are just making yourself look quite pathetic.

What you are failing to understand is the market has rallied this time around a FAR GREATER PERCENTAGE than last time.

194 (1937) /381 (1929) = 50% of the whole market it rallied to in 37. So what you are saying now in PERCENTAGE TERMS THAT WE ARE AT DOW 7000. Guess what we are at DOW 10,500.

You have no basis for your comment. But keep trying to be funny. Or you could continue with your brilliant market commentary.

You can look here if you are interested in learning. It has the peaks and troughs listed.

stockcharts.com...


"But I am not here to give you an education", right?



[edit on 6-3-2010 by GreenBicMan]

by GBM
Fiat currency, blah blah blah

*picturing GBM with his fingers in his ears*
reply to post by GreenBicMan


This is what's called Cognitive Disonance. Fiat currencies have always failed do to excessive debt. It's a FACT. There is no attempt being made to reduce expenses, and therefore the situation will worsen. It's that simple.

You see, I'm not making fun of you when I point out your position in life. I am saying that to be taken seriously, you have to actually have put 2 and 2 together successfully enough to at least be supporting yourself. Ya know, you come dragging in here all the time talking about how you lost your ass and then you want to turn around and claim you're educating me? I take you as seriously as I take my 6 year old.

You really need to start prioritizing man.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


Wait, so now we are talking about FIAT currencies.. is that after you admit you were wrong previously?

And I am guessing if you had this auto immune disease as well you wouldn't be in the same position you are right now. So my position in life really has nothing to do with your presumption of what it should be or what it will be or what it has been.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I'm not sure what part of this you didn't understand....

After regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half. (wiki)

As far as your ailment, it doesn't seem to stop you dinking around on the internet. Excuses are like a......s, so spare me. Besides I took a little turn with the auto immune thing, it's pandemic these days. Through a ton of research I was able to end it through detoxification and nutritional adjustments. The answers ARE out there.

I'd be happy to share what I know with you, just u2u me. The main thing is a positive can-do/never quit attitude. If you would devote the time you spend playing with charts you would already be cured. I always have to wonder though if people just like having the excuse not to try.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


What you are not understanding is that was 1 incident BUT THAT DOES NOT CORRELATE WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW BECAUSE WE HAVE GAINED ALMOST 70% NOT 50%. I am not sure why you do not understand that.

Are you saying the market can be cut in half?

Yeah, ok from 14000 to 7000 it did. So you think it should happen again? I am not sure what you mean even.

Regarding the sickness I don't give a # about that and I don't like even bringing it up. I just do not need people telling me where I should be or what I should be doing.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I'm not sure how you're getting 70 percent retracement. The difference between 14000 and 6600 = 7400. So 7400 divided by 2 = 3700. Then the low 6600 + 3700 is 10300. So its been stuck around 50 percent retracement for a while now.

What I'm saying is that IF I believed that the past dictates the future, which I do not, then another drop could be imminent. The fact is that the US and the world have never been in this situation and there is NO precedent. Stocks would shoot to the moon in a hyperinflationary scenario. The chart would be truly fantastic, it would blow your mind. But what would it really mean?

Regarding the sickness I don't give a # about that

I figured as much. Good luck with that.

Baby's all grows up. I aint' livin' in the basemint. Sheeeeeeet.

Still short and waiting to make a killing on you dumbbulls.

You think Wall St. is going to validate Obamarama? You are disconnected.

So today I was with one friend I had not seen in a while, he's doing a PHD or whatever in finance... we talked a lot about the economy...

Then he asked me what I thought was the cause of the 2008 crash... I had so many reasons in mind, we couldn't pin point the exact event that created it...

What do you all think? What is the precise event that started it?

The Fed bad mouthing the banks then people listening to them and waking up to the fact that those banks were insolvents because of all the toxic mortages they holded??

reply to post by Vitchilo


Short & sweet:

Wall Street Heist


The full low-down:

Financial collapse summary