The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by irishchic


Economy? What economy??

All I can think about is a certain redhead spinning on a pole.

Oh oh. I'm feeling funny in my happy place

the thing with the bond market rates.....is that they may get a reprieve when the DEMS pass a National Sales TAX......because obviously that money would go toward lowering the deficit (and the amount we need to borrow)....

so if we have a defict which will prob be a bit north of 2 trillion......how much $ wlll a VAT bring in......to take pressure off the bond markets....... bond markets may tank until this is passed

consumption will also be trashed by the VAT and this= earnings but i'm not sure the stock market operates based on future earnings anymore....by the end of the year we will find out

reply to post by cpdaman


It's pretty hard to tax people who have no income and buy their food with food stamps.

The VAT proposal will be a huge FAIL and it will make the economy worse

Shares in Airbus are going to take a hit this week. News has just emerged that Air France has been replacing suspect speed sensors for months, putting a whole new spin on the aftermath of flight 447.

This is could well have an impact on the value of any airline with A330s.

Originally posted by pause4thought
Shares in Airbus are going to take a hit this week. News has just emerged that Air France has been replacing suspect speed sensors for months, putting a whole new spin on the aftermath of flight 447.

This is could well have an impact on the value of any airline with A330s.

They don't know yet what caused the accident, or they do?
Anyway, this is a panic reaction.
But, since the situation is not normal any more, they'll probably hush it up.
Air carriers suffer a lot in this recession and they will have to do with what they have, with underpaid crews, etc.

Expensive airplanes may be out of commission for other reasons - expensive maintenance.

This accident is only a mark in time.

reply to post by DangerDeath


You are right, the investigation is clearly still in its early stages. However while I agree reluctance to board A330s or A340s may be an overreaction, it would not be entirely irrational either. Here's an excerpt:

Air France has said it is accelerating replacement of speed monitors on Airbus planes following the disappearance of a jet over the Atlantic six days ago.

It said it had noticed problems arising from icing on the monitors last year and had begun changing them in April...

Investigators say that sensors on board the missing Airbus 330 were providing "inconsistent data" in the minutes before it went missing.

On Saturday, Air France said that in May 2008 it had begun noticing "incidents of loss of airspeed information during cruise flight" on its A330s and A340s jets - although only a "small number" of incidents had been reported.

The airline said it then contacted Airbus, who sent a recommendation to replace the monitors.

Source

Expensive airplanes may be out of commission for other reasons - expensive maintenance.

Are you questioning whether airlines are keeping up with maintenance schedules? That would be illegal, as they have to keep to strict regulations to qualify for an Air Operator's Certificate / Air Carrier Operating Certificate (-which is why it is best to avoid certain non-certified carriers based in developing countries).

You are still right to say the public reaction may well be an overreaction. But unfortunately it is still likely to effect prospects for already hard-pushed airlines.




[edit on 7/6/09 by pause4thought]

From "The Inger Letter"...long but worth a read!:

"Conclusion: stabilization efforts not withstanding; overall recession and deleveraging conditions will prevail (not may prevail) through this year, and probably into next year as well. Intervening rallies in markets will occur (some fairly wild), of limited duration. In event other developments unfold that could truly change prospects; we’ll evaluate.

Bottom line: macro signs interpreted; including (recently consolidated) the following bullet points:


Perceptions of credit crisis as behind, and economic crises ahead discounted; still premature.

Further points: nearer-term issues to contend with; mostly ongoing macro aspects (new in red):

Capitalism requires credit; but at manageable levels; restoring equilibrium simply takes time.

Macro thoughts (many points above or below are works in progress; some noted since ’07):

Uptake of U.S. Treasuries by foreign entities may be choked-off, by necessity, as ‘09 evolves."

reply to post by redhatty


The simple truth is that people are taking profits in the FX market and putting it in Treasuries which have been dramatically oversold. They do this so they can make money, not to support Treasuries per say.

reply to post by pause4thought

Are you questioning whether airlines are keeping up with maintenance schedules? That would be illegal, as they have to keep to strict regulations to qualify for an Air Operator's Certificate / Air Carrier Operating Certificate (-which is why it is best to avoid certain non-certified carriers based in developing countries).

Yes, I am questioning that. Highly regulated system is not typical for crisis times. The words are on paper, but as we have seen from recent crashes of local transporters in the USA, pilots and crew members are seriously underpaid and work double shifts. I'm pretty sure that maintenance and safety suffers a lot from this crisis.

But in this case of flight 447 it may be as well the construction problem, as is indicated in those reports.

reply to post by cpdaman


Vat, or any other type of tax will have severe after effects, but may be necessary to keep the gov opperating.. how ever many states and cities rely almost entirely on their own sales taxes of 3-9% ... if the gov comes in and adds a huge sales tax of 20+% cities may loose their tax revenue .. on top of the fact that products being so expensive reduce consuming power...

If they put a VAT they will first need to solve the deflation issues plaqueing the middle class...

Either way, the dems WILL find a way to tax us, some how.. I would prefer any way other then income tax hikes.. that will only target the middle class..

IN case there is ANY doubt that most of last week's trading was done by a handful of Wall Street firms:

zerohedge.blogspot.com...

Goldman Sachs Principal Transactions Update: 741 Million Shares

Posted by Tyler Durden at 4:41 PM
Latest NYSE Program Trading data out. Program trading last week ramped up by 27% from 26.5% the week before, to 33.7% of all NYSE buy+sell volume, and much higher than the 52 week average of 25.3%. The 15 most active member firms traded 1.9 billion shares for principal accounts, compared to 1.6 in the prior week. The top principal trader is and has always been (at least for the past 9 months) Goldman Sachs, with 741.7 million principal trades, virtually nothing in facilitation and 115 million in agency, keeping the principal to non-principal ratio at just under 7x.

I'm no math-wiz but it looks like @ 15% of last week's "volume" was traded between the top 15 or so firms...see chart on link.

Originally posted by redhatty
reply to post by cpdaman

 

It's pretty hard to tax people who have no income and buy their food with food stamps.

The VAT proposal will be a huge FAIL and it will make the economy worse

it will not be MEANT to help the economy in the short term it will be meant to save the bond market .....(avoid capital flight) and so that we will not have to borrow as much money i.e and acution off as much treasury's........of course we could cut spending.....but neh....

read john mauldin's latest thoughts from the frontline

[edit on 7-6-2009 by cpdaman]

Talking about bonds, that is something we need to address.

Our bond market is in a precarious situation.

With Obama spending spree and pushing, "change" in health care, environment, education, and federal employment, he is going to drive the private business into a slow grow.

Meaning that the groups that he wants to tax the most will be to slow growing during the next 4 years that somebody else will have to pay the rest, mostly the tax payer.

But with the raising in unemployment, more forclosures in the future the banks will be also slowing down on credit and loans.

People will be tightening the wallets and this will have an impact on the retailers and eventually on the nations economy and domestic growth.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke does not agree. The likely base case—not the adverse scenario—used for the Fed’s Stress Tests for the 19 largest banks posited 2010 GDP growth and unemployment at 2.1 and 8.8 percent. Most economists agree and are forecasting growth averaging about three percent after that.

Simply, the tax base will grow more slowly than President Obama assumes, and planned taxes on CO2 emissions and high income Americans will be tough to implement.

For years to come, federal finances will likely look a lot like Obama’s 2010 projection—the deficit at 50 percent of revenues and the Treasury borrowing $100 billion every month.

www.economyincrisis.org...

To tell you the truth people our future doesn't look good anyway we put it, and taxes or not our government is become to expensive to afford.

Our ratings are going to be degraded eventually as the budget deficit is nothing but a big bubble about to burst any time

Beware of the bond market

As President Obama spends and borrows, the Treasury will have to offer higher rates on new 10 and 20 year bonds, making comparable securities issued in 2009 and earlier worth less in the resale market.

That interest rate risk makes U.S. Treasury securities lousy investments.

For rating agencies, Washington’s monopoly on printing dollars makes difficult assigning a conventional rating between AAA and D on its bonds. Those can’t default but investors’ capital is still at risk.

Perhaps a special grade: “F” for flee them now before you get stuck

well here is a good read that i think anyone can understand about the danger the bond market is in....and the options

the blog writer believes this will weight very heavily on GOlD and Equity's

i found this on mish's blog globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...

a reader black swan quoted a article written by a different blogger (linked at bottom of page) and posted it on mish site....i copied it to ATS here is what it said

(i would advise reading the link at the bottom as this quoted portion omists numerous points) but still gives you an idea

"What's happening in bond land? The latest US govt bond auction was for $110 billion. Two years ago the average monthly bond auction total was $5 billion, $10 billion, numbers like that. The US govt finances its debt with bonds. A $2 trillion deficit means $2 trillion in new bonds needs to be issued. Approx. $200 billion a month."

"Where we appear to be headed is for a test of the Dow lows. You had better pray those lows hold. Because if they don't, your money could become a target of the govt as its demand for money skyrockets, while the supply of money tanks. The ideal situation is a fast crash towards those lows with perhaps either the Dow transports or the industrials breaking, but not both. While that happens, the bond market must rally."

"The nightmare situation is the Dow just slowly rolls down, and bonds mount no major rally. If both the Dow transports and the industrials break the lows, the global banking and brokerage system will likely be closed soon after that, the first of many such closes. Short selling would likely be banned. A national sales tax would be simply one of a zillion money grabs."

" If Ben Bernanke fails to drastically increase the Fed's purchases of bonds, another vortex of asset destruction is a near certainty, as the primary dealers will exert mindblowing pressure on the managers of other assets to move those assets into bonds. Some of the movement is being triggered automatically thru asset allocation algorithms. Let me repeat: money IS not just moving into bonds now, it is POURING in. But... that money is not enough to soak up all the bonds the govt is issuing."

"Sadly, the massive increases in the commercial short positions of gold and other commodities over the past few weeks suggest it could be the deflationary vortex that emerges the victor of this clash of the titans. Will gold soar or melt? I wouldn't bet 10 cents on one scenario exclusively over the other. Remember the tools Mr. Bernanke has laid out. After the purchase of the t-bonds fails, (and it is badly failing right now) the next step is gold revaluation. If you think the United States govt is going to stand around ..... while their t-bonds are liquidated and watch all "their" money pour into gold without taking action to prevent that, please report to your new home on Fantasy Island."

mercatoliberonews.blogspot.com...

[edit on 7-6-2009 by cpdaman]

[edit on 7-6-2009 by cpdaman]

Hi cpdaman and GBM: Remember me? The sad little sack that lost her booty in the stock market?

Just wanted to drop by and say hi. At this point, things are somewhat better, and I think I've (what's the word? "won"? "earned"? Hm. Think I wil choose "got lucky", and got about 13,000, then 8,000 of my money back so far. So, 21 up but still a lot more than that down.

cpd, I think it was you who suggested maybe riding it out until August, and then reassessing it, and I am still going to try to do that. So far so good.

Okay, I'm going, I'm going......lol

My best to you guys....LIW

reply to post by ladyinwaiting


Nice to hear something resembling good news.

It does have to be said, though, that the contents of this thread should never be taken as investment advice per se. It's data and trend-watching that helps us to see what might be round the corner - well that's the hope anyways.

Originally posted by irishchic
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

The red hair is mine just "enhanced" and the pole plays a huge part in "keeping me young!"

That explains it! I always wondered why the mods would tolerate your avatar. So the long black thing you have your hands on is a pole, right?

Originally posted by pause4thought
reply to post by ladyinwaiting

 

It does have to be said, though, that the contents of this thread should never be taken as investment advice per se. It's data and trend-watching that helps us to see what might be round the corner - well that's the hope anyways.

Oh, Pause, sorry to hear about your misfortune.
Can we know how much you lost?
Anyway . . . thanks for the "be advised."

reply to post by stander



Geeze...is my avatar "un-acceptable?" When I think of the one I almost posted,LOLROF! (NIght Watchman is starting to smile...)

I have seen some on here that are WILD,at least mine is really me LOL!

Yep...it's a pole (They are polished stainless,just look black) there are three in my house/studio.

All used for "Aerial manuvers choreographed to music" and one of THE toughest workouts I defy anyone to pull off,LOL!

SO glad someone's posting that they are positive in their investments!

LOVE reading this and please come back soon...I take this thread as yet another source in my ever-growing aresenal of informative and tried/true sites that I rely on in order to keep a bead on what's truly happening thus resulting in "more informed" decisions.

Plus,many of you are just so much fun and so smart!


[edit on 7-6-2009 by irishchic]

Originally posted by stander
America has two ways to go: it will become a dictatorship country supporting further illicit market mechanisms, or it will go through a long period of "perestroika."

Gorbachev says U.S. needs its own perestroika

en.rian.ru...


I wonder who else is getting inspired by the content of this thread.

Guys, I think that we have a great responsibility in devising the way toward everlasting prosperity.