The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by Rockpuck
Bloomberg was also nice enough to point out the labor dept is officially knocking people off of u3 unemployment that lost their jobs at the begining of the recession... as if your unemployed for to long "you are no longer looking for work".

Surprisingly they even showed "real" unemployment being 16.8% (which I feel we have surpassed 20% and are around 21-23%.

You have to understand though, they always don't include "discouraged workers" in the unemployment reports and unemployment is always higher than reported even when the economy is "good". People are just making a big deal about it now because it looks a lot worse when the official report is 9.4%. But unemployment is ALWAYS higher than what they report.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
Bloomberg was also nice enough to point out the labor dept is officially knocking people off of u3 unemployment that lost their jobs at the begining of the recession... as if your unemployed for to long "you are no longer looking for work".

that is why the other measures of Unemployment will be more imporant to watch over the coming months.......we will need to remind ourselves of this

unemployment will level off and then start falling Automatically....(due to what you stated) Orwellian

that is why we will continue to look at those other unemployment numbers for the real rate..........over in the MSM everyone will be "?????" as to why consumer spending and companys earnings are tanking

Credit card company's are PULLING up to 2 trillion worth of credit lines over the next year.......combine this with small and mid sized banks getting clobbered by commercial real estate exposure.......WE are keeping banks alive but they are nothing but PRETTY looking ZOMBIES......dressing up their finanicial statements does not hide the truth about their capital position and the PROBLEM with this is that they STILL will NOT LEND......watch the velocity of money get flushed down the potty

Retonoid Recepter this is incorrect when the media uses the current rates to compare to the 70's or 80's recessions to give a favorable and deceptive comparison.....b/c the definitions and formula's have changed how the "official" number is reported

The problem with the unemployment is that we are losing the jobs that used to support the middle class and replace them with low income jobs.

The decline of the standards of living is creating a gab in classes never seen before in this nation.

Still with not new employment grow to bring back the middle class we are to become a nation of nothing but welfare recipients.

That is why Obama health care reform is so important to him and the government even when not necessarily be the right thing to the nations well being, as long as the root of the unemployment problems are not fix.

That means we as a nation have not means of creating long lasting comfortable jobs anymore.

Consumer Credit Plunges by 15.7 billion

www.cnbc.com...

Good news for the country and consumer as a whole, bad news for BUSINESS AS USUAL.

reply to post by nydsdan

What are the technical criteria to define a "depression" because I am getting sick of all this "recession is over" crap. Yea, it is over. It is a depression now.

I'm pretty sure "depression" is not technical but psychological term.
Is this feeling sick of yours actually feeling "depressed"?

I'm trying to make it sound funny, but it's definitely a subjective feeling.

Originally posted by Rockpuck


Surprisingly they even showed "real" unemployment being 16.8% (which I feel we have surpassed 20% and are around 21-23%.

With figures like that, the federal government would be losing anywhere from 25 to 30 billion a month on tax revenues coming from the amount that is subtracted from workers' paychecks. That would balloon the deficit much closer to the point of burst.

The deficit increase may be another parameter to figure out how many folks have been really unemployed, since the government doesn't substantially cut down its operation. I made the estimate based on the official unemployment figures. The way the government keeps its books makes it hard to answer the key questions regarding the oncoming fiscal crises. For example, the number of people who didn't received their paychecks in April has to be derived from other data even though this particular data is essential in figuring out the lost revenue to the federal and local governments, which really matters these days.

America continues its collapse virtually silently.

There is that question when the collapse would be felt across the board. It's no longer the question if; it's about when. Now the various analysts are always busy playing nostradamus with the future prices of commodities and other economic outlooks, but there seems to be no concern about setting a specific time frame when Congress will convene to discuss the "collapse of America." The vagueness of the way Bloombergs and others speak is an indicative of them not being able to forecast anything apart from the outlooks that they derive from mechanistic application of business-related formulas that they learned in college. No one taught them how to measure the distance between the flying sh-t and the fan.

I guess we have to wait till it happens or crunch the numbers by ourselves.
farm1.static.flickr.com...

reply to post by stander

With figures like that, the federal government would be losing anywhere from 25 to 30 billion a month on tax revenues coming from the amount that is subtracted from workers' paychecks. That would balloon the deficit much closer to the point of burst.

Individual Income Tax Receipts are down 44% from one year earlier. That's not total tax receipts, just from personal income. Much of that is also from, say, investors that post losses and thus no income to be taxed. It also clearly highlights the fact that not only is the Gov loosing from people unemployed, but people going from middle class paying out their ass in taxes to working $8/hr jobs paying NO taxes. Or people loosing work hours, or working part time, cutting individual income tax in half.

Which once again compounds another important issue... deficits...

If we had a $1t deficit last year (using fake numbers) but brought in say $1t in tax receipts, our total budget being $2t. Now if we cut taxes in half our deficit is $1.5t for the following year... but because they base the projected deficit on one years back tax receipts (as tax receipts for that fiscal year obviously has not been collected) then Obama's huge deficit is actually 50% or more larger then what he says it really will be.. as tax receipts fall, more debt will be issued to finance the entirety of the Federal Government.

I believe this was big Bens concerns.. that eventually we cannot finance our selves or inflation will reach uncontrollable levels..

I thinks... the people at the top of our governments are honestly, sincerely scared out of their wits of this situation.. they are attempting a "Quantitative Easing" into economic collapse, unlike the Soviet Union.

Ps. There is no concrete reports of Corporate Tax Receipts, but essentially if a corporation posts no profit due to expenses in operation, they pay very little to no taxes...

This being the case.. it's highly highly likely that we could see the implementation of a VAT (Value Added Tax) in which taxes will be paid on material at all levels of creation and the consumer pays the final tax, but anything not purchased, lost, retracted etc is still taxed at some point..

Either way, welcome to the new Dark Ages.

reply to post by Rockpuck


You can't tell me that they aren't engaged in shenanigans with the birth/death model:

www.bls.gov...

Small business created 220k jobs? 50k more than last may? Huh?

Zero Hedge offers this: Payroll Data In Perspective. Check out the comments, as well.

[edit on 5-6-2009 by theWCH]

reply to post by Rockpuck

I didn't include the obvious decrease in the corporate taxes revenues. The TARP expenditures and the expenditures related to keeping Fannie and Freddie operating got in the way, but these numbers are known and are hopefully correct.
online.wsj.com...

It would take a great deal of accounting to pass some definitive word on what's in store.

Officially, this economic downturn is claiming about 6 million more unemployed in addition to the usual number, which seems to be an underestimate given the present budget deficit. With TARP accounted for, there is still like $475 billion additional deficit government expenditures hanging there in comparison to the 2008 deficit. That's too big a number.

Originally posted by theWCH
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

You can't tell me that they aren't engaged in shenanigans with the birth/death model:

www.bls.gov...

Small business created 220k jobs? 50k more than last may? Huh?

Zero Hedge offers this: Payroll Data In Perspective. Check out the comments, as well.

[edit on 5-6-2009 by theWCH]

i enjoyed this reply by " Gator Gatlin" from the ZH blog

You can game up the employment numbers and even the GDP numbers, you can hammer on gold, you can get bank shills to blow taxpayer money smoke up the markets’ whoppie hole and levitate that bitch, you can lie up and down from the white house but, if we have had the bursting of a 25 year credit bubble, none of that BS will matter and the truth will out….let’s see Q2 earnings, Q3 earnings

yes indeed Q3 and Q4 will be a DISASTER.....and if they can keep the market levitating thru that then i will be absolutely impressed beyond belief

Originally posted by Rockpuck
Either way, welcome to the new Dark Ages.

If you haven't read this yet, you should:

The Easter Bunny on Stress Tests and the New Dark Ages

In mercantilism, which is the approach to economics and government that typified Europe's history from about 1500 through 1850 or so, governments operated according to imperatives that accumulated the most power and money for the governments (then the kings and royal families), as well as for the loyal supporters/special interests of the ruling class; usually the bankers and the industrialists of their times.

This approach was rooted in the Dark Ages and resulted in such wonders as the Hundred Year War, etc.

Basically, all capital above that required by the population to subsist went into the treasury's coffers, and all policy was designed to enrich the ruling elite at the expense of the population, as well as all other nations. Monopolies were frequent, where the outsized profits to be had from being granted exclusive rights to do things like trade with certain regions, or import things, or operate certain businesses, were reserved for those closely aligned with the ruling party or group.

Much more at link.

What I find interesting, is the fact that there are certain pieces in place which would allow for a SHTF-scenario to take place without the population realizing it.

The MSM already controls what the general population thinks ("Unemployment hits 9.4%, the average work-week is shedding hours like mad, and the seasonally adjusted U-6 change-rate is accelerating; but non-farm, non-adjusted job losses were *only* 325,000...Party Time!!!").

People have been sold on the idea of investing in index funds (even though it's well established that index funds barely out-pace inflation -- and often times "bull markets" actually lose ground when you adjust for inflation) so people will feel good about their retirement funds; as long as the Dow posts gains.

Food shortages? No, people are just eating less...it's good for them; we were getting too fat for a while there. The next nutritional craze: The All-Grass Diet.

Obama will fix things, they tell us. And if Obama isn't your cup of tea (no pun intended) then 4-8 years from now we'll stick a Republican in office. Nothing will change, but the other 50% of the population can feel optimistic for a little while. And don't you dare vote for a third-party candidate: that would be like voting for your least desired candidate ( ), so it's better to not vote at all.

I'm not ready to write us off yet; but I have grown very convinced that we could go into another Dark Age, and 85% of the population wouldn't even realize it. I doubt that we'll really know how bad things are until we actually return to legitimate prosperity.

[edit on 5-6-2009 by theWCH]

All eyes next week will be on the treasury auction. If there isn't sufficient demand and rates rise you will see a large sell off. I truly DOUBT this will happen because the fed is most likely going to purchase large amounts this week to keep interest rates steady. I'd be very surprised if they only buy a mediocre amount.

Hey.

Needed some time to think about what was happening. After you get burnt its usually good to put it away for a while. When something "technically" does not happen for me 2x in a row (open and close of Wed.) I'm clueless.

All I can say right now at this exact point, I think we could still see 8200 before 9000. I really, really think this.. IMO this is getting a little overextended.. but this may be my "emotion" getting into it - it seems like we have a "ceiling" right here to me.. like I said though.. its one of those "sit back and watch times" for a guy like me.. let the pro's sort this mess out

I wont be posting anymore opinions though.. I will be posting charts though of what I am looking at with a brief description. I would rather not get involved in anymore conversation.

As for at least backing up what I have been talking about for quite a while you can look here.. I have uploaded all my graphs (well.. at least here and sierracharts.com) and I have never "edited" them.. changed calls etc...

All my graphs uploaded so far on this site

I want everyone to know that contrary to one opinion, I never have/would/intended etc. to mislead anyone on this thread. Trust me, it's not or never has been my intention, and never will be. That is important to me to have out there.



As for what is on my mind...


On my mind June 6 2009

2nd Thing on my mind for June 6 2009

To the few that talk all the time privately, thats still totally cool... Im just done giving a public opinion.

GBM you know it is vey difficult in the heat of the market's momentum to not give an opinion.........i hope you break your new "rule"

P.S i don't know how anyone can trade the equity's market's these days......it's a 3 ring circus.....

it seems to me the world is being run with no real plan.....not much of a plan for the long term.........kind of like the long term doesn't matter

I've just been daytrading options. I don't feel comfortable being in the markets because it isn't real to me. GBM, I looked at your pics, I love tiesto kudos GBM I am sure you a lot

@ CPADMAN..

I will post charts of "what I am looking at" if you need further help reading them, you can PM me, or if you want my opinion etc..

@ RR

See you at Mansion!

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Many contributors in here are convinced the MSM is pushing 'green shoots' theory while the economic system itself is in its death throes. As such your vehement contrary statements have meant you may have become associated with the agenda of the PTB. But to my mind you have earned a degree of respect by backing up your claims with data and often argued your case well enough to make others reflect on what you've said.

Your opinions are therefore welcome. You seem to have reveled in the role of devil's advocate, which is intellectually a very respectable position. It adds a lot to the rigor of debate.

An inevitable consequence of denying what so many contributors have been saying, though, is that there will be times when things don't go your way. Masses of data have been presented to back up the 'meltdown' view, after all.

Yet I still say most of us want to see a recovery - if it is solid. So if you can find hard evidence it may be on the horizon you can expect thumbs up pretty much all round. The balance of data to your own interpretation is up to you. The difficulty you face, I suggest, is that the more opinion you add, the further you stick your neck out. And because that only matters if you are wrong, the question is: how confident are you in your views?

Which leads me to the crux: at what point would you be willing to 'jump ship' and accept the economy is doomed?

reply to post by GreenBicMan


The world is not what you "see".
There is a great danger in what you are doing, because you have become the "victim of the obvious".

Dow is not about 8.500 or 9.000. Dow is about 6.000 to 6.500 if not less than that.

There is an abracadabra going on since at least November 2008.

There are some big thieves hiding their manipulation and using Dow as canvas to screen off the real action.

Think about that possibility for a change. Don't place your trust in those people just like that. They don't deserve to be trusted.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


You opinions are very welcome, after all you are like fresh air in here. Is good to see the positive side among the negative ones.