Wednesday on the Markets . . .

Don't look now, but the pretrading day of the DOW is showing a drop of over 200 points, for a downward trend of two percent.

The S & P is mirroring that slide, with the NASDAQ down about one percent.

Looks like the pricetag of 'stability' is a tad more than teh $250 billion thrown at the finance sector yesterday.

Any bets on where it's going today?

This is exactly what I expected. After Monday I was talking with my friends saying that I fear that the government(s) simply built a house of cards. One that MAY stand for a little while.

I simply believe that they slowed the decent which may work out in the long run. It should be a slow slide to the bottom and hopefully a slow climb back out. That is the best thing for this economy right now.

At least the Fed is finally saying we are officially in a recession now. About time.

reply to post by GoalPoster


does it really matter how far it drops today or any other day? were to busy imaganing more money out of thin air to try and plug the huge holes to notice or care

How long will it be before everyone realizes the Emporer really ain't wearin' any clothes?

There's a lot of red on that big board in pre market trading today . . . makes me wonder each day if it is the other shoe about to drop.

yea i see that. -216 dow futures last i checked.

and the open interest for the put/call ratio for close yesterday ( for dow, s&p 100, and 500 combined ) is 0.83
and from what i understand, that is a signal for going down.

i called it yesterday to be a slight gain for close of today. i still may be right, but, its not looking that way. either way, i still believe we are in a down trend for sure.

here is hoping for the best.

did anyone notice that oil closed at 75.94?!
if that keeps up, it wont be profitable to pull it out of the ground. and me and my petrochemical job will dry up. yikes!

[edit on 15-10-2008 by JSR]

This may be an indication....Sept. Retail sales are down 1.2%....third month...this is the US economy...two thirds of the US economy is retail. (service)

Remember this was before the October crash so try to put together the post holiday season (Christmas 2008) and we will see a train wreck. (January 2009)

I worked as a GM and SM for 10 years in a BIG BOX. Christmas was the time of the year that made us profitable.

Expect many. many, many bankrupt reatail outlets.

Many retail stocks are not represented on the DOW, S and P and the Naz.

If we see Walmart getting rocked after Christmas expect the very worse.



[edit on 15-10-2008 by whiteraven]

The futures climbed back up under a hundred before opening bell. Ten minutes into the market and were 216 point down.

Originally posted by whiteraven
If we see Walmart getting rocked after Christmas expect the very worse.
[edit on 15-10-2008 by whiteraven]

i would agree with all of your post. i forget sometimes about US being a service and retail industry now. damn shame, all of the manufaturing has gone away.

anyway, i did notice the last time it got slow, Walmart was doning good. due to the fact it was a discount store, and everybody was trying to save on spending.

so, i agree, if walmart takes a hit.......we in trouble.

reply to post by JSR

if that keeps up, it wont be profitable to pull it out of the ground. and me and my petrochemical job will dry up. yikes!

What is your break even number. I have heard that the Oil Sands in Alberta break even number is around $55.00.

reply to post by whiteraven


i think i read somewhere it was around 45 or 50. but, break even dont cut it with these guys. it there isn't a good profit, it's lay-off time.

---------edit---------

if it holds, ill be ok. i hope it holds.

--------------edit again----------------

Given these break-even figures and the willingness of producers to fund projects with $50 break-even costs, we should not expect to see much in the way of long-term supply below about $40 or $50, even in low price scenarios.

source Oil Price Predictions and Break-Even Prices



[edit on 15-10-2008 by JSR]

[edit on 15-10-2008 by JSR]

reply to post by JSR


Look up Lindsey Williams on the Peak Oil Board of ATS. He predicted $50
oil 6 months ago then the SHTF........

The DOW is down almost 300 with the S & P and NASDAQ showing similar percentage losses.

It is so hard to follow from day to day, but I think everyone is on the same page here thinking that consumers are spooked big time and that will trickle down into the economic impact being the killing of their own market, so to speak.

No buying means no selling means no business means pretty much nothing across the board.

I'm not a doomsday sayer, but it seems it is time to stock, lock and load.

That worries me!

reply to post by Pinktip


OOHHH interesting.........

found the on-line book The Energy Non-Crisis by Lindsey Williams

ill be reading up, thanks.

I just checked Yahoo Finance and the DJIA is down over 350 points.


This is getting to be a little too common place for my liking. If I were an investor I would keep my money in my pocket these days.

[edit on 10/15/08 by BlackOps719]

OOHHH interesting.........

found the on-line book The Energy Non-Crisis by Lindsey Williams

ill be reading up, thanks.

The book covers the his history on the subject, there is a Youtube video of him speaking for an hour on the subject.

But this spring, he changed his tune on where oil was headed .....again, there is an audio clip of him on youtube ~May or June

everythings still 200-300 points down

unless we get a massive market rally right at the end of the day europes loving the color red again

Single day drops are meaningless at this point.

We are in store for a long, hard and deep recession, a second Great Depression.

Stocks will not drop much further after this week. They will then fluctuate around this mark for a couple of years before advancing again.

Just make sure you have some spare money to invest in Q2 2010... Thats when the future billionaires will be made.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
Just make sure you have some spare money to invest in Q2 2010... Thats when the future billionaires will be made.

why would you say Q2 2010?

and what would you predict would be the leaders?

reply to post by JSR


Classic depression pattern theory.

There will now be two quarters of negative growth up to summer 2009, then another two flat growth periods up till jan 2010, then a slow upward trend resulting from in a boom period starting in Q2 2010 (new tax year april).

Leaders are impossible to predict. I think Buffett will be sunk. Soros will be gone.

I think the investor leaders are unknown at this point, just as those two were in 1987.

The market leaders will be solid product and vanilla banking operations such as barclays and tesco here in the UK; JPM, BoA and Walmart in the USA (amongst others of course).

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the Western financial markets, which is the reason for the price swings.

But at this point in the game Uncertainty is good; it means that the verdict is not yet in on the American economy.

The Russians, Icelanders and Eastern/Central Europeans know there is no uncertainty there. Investors know they don't want their money in those regions.