Confirmed: SS-21 Scarab launchers in S. Ossetia!

Yes, it does seem they are going a bit over-board protecting SO

reply to post by netwarrior


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An interesting thread. Good find.

Starred and flagged.

why ????????????

does indeed spring to mind

IMHO there is no tactical logic in this aleged deployment

just look at the map of the region - with the range of the scarab - it can if batteries are deployed along the russia / goergia border - sutibly defended - can it a massive swathe of georgia with near impunity

Originally posted by D.E.M.

Myself, i would find chemical or conventional far more logical. Nobody wants to be that close to radioactive fire

As the retired general states, Russia knows they cannot possibly compete with America in conventional warfare. It is because of this, that Russia has adopted this hard line response.

Russia has their own oil. Plus, the have access to the Caspian sea. They're more piss that the pipeline will make Europe more independent of oil from mother Russia.

The "Tochka" or SS-21 "Scarab" (god NATO reporting names sound dumb) is hardly one of Russia's most potent theatre ballistic missiles.

It has a puny range, small payload and is also quite inaccurate.

The R-400 "Oka", the Iskander-M or the BM-30 "Smerch" represent the latest in Russian missile engineering.
Far more accurate (the Iskander can hit to within 20m of a target), ranges upto 500km and

The Tochkas are most likely being used for their deterrent value. The Russians are not stupid enough to actually launch a few 100Kt warheads at Georgia because not only would that escalate this conflict to an unprecedented level and likely kill all of Russia's sympathy or credibility in the minds of the international community, but it would also irradiate a very large area and would likely affect Ossetian civilians and Russian troops just as much as the enemy.

It's not sound military thinking.

If Russia really wanted they could fly a fleet Blackjacks over Tbilisi and turn it into a smouldering wreck without worrying about fallout or accuracy...

The SS-21 might be sending a message here but I doubt Russia will act on that message with those missiles. They have far better options when it comes to rendering Georgia a wasteland (if it gets to that stage, heaven forbid).

reply to post by The Godfather of Conspira


Hi Godfather......if it's purely a deterrent, why not stick a few iskanders there? Iskanders are a solely conventional rocket and would not escalate this situation any further. Parking WMD capable rockets in South Ossetia is only going to make people jumpy! It seems a strange decision to me.

Having said that, I would imagine that the support vehicles would be different for a WMD armed SS-21 over a conventional one, and the keyhole sats would identify this.

Cheers

Robbie

reply to post by stratsys-sws

if it's purely a deterrent, why not stick a few iskanders there? Iskanders are a solely conventional rocket and would not escalate this situation any further.

Iskanders are new and expensive pieces of hardware. Why risk them when you don't need to?

Tochka's are far more widely available and will get the same message across, plus their expendable. Loose a Tochka to Georgian artillery and it's no big deal. Russia has hundred's.

Iskanders are valuable. It's all about "bang for your buck", a Tochka will get the job done the same way for less cost/risk.

Sure it can be viewed as a dangerous escalation in tensions, but these Tochkas may not even have Nuclear warheads. They may be conventional, no one knows.
Hence they are treated as just another piece of hardware.

I would imagine that the support vehicles would be different for a WMD armed SS-21 over a conventional one, and the keyhole sats would identify this.

There are no support vehicles. Tochka's are mounted on TEL vehicles (Transporter-Erector-Launcher), they're fully self-contained and all the necessary preparations for launch are made on site.
These things:

The Warheads don't require any alteration before firing, that's all done on board during and after launch.

More than just terrorizing Georgia, I think the missile system is there to terrorize other countries, as well.

Ones like poland, Ukraine.....and others that support Georgia/Western freedom instead of soviet style empire.

It might also be a warning to NATO about preventing Georgia from being reabsorbed into the Russian empire (think old style Soviet Union).

That said, I don't think Russia is so stupid as to use nukes/bio/chemical weapons on NATO troops and or countries, as it would mean their use on Russia.

reply to post by Backwoods


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reply to post by mrmonsoon

More than just terrorizing Georgia, I think the missile system is there to terrorize other countries, as well.

Terrorise?

You mean force the Georgians to stop their ridiculous deliberate attacks on Russian civilians?

Georgia terrorised Tshninvali about 10 times in the past week and claimed 2,000 civilians.
Maybe they need to taste their own medicine to realise how stupid their actions are?

Russia is sending a strong response to their actions, it's not terrorising in the least. It's an urging of the cessation of hostilities.
Otherwise Russia will need to use drastic measures here and as you can see their holding back, they don't want that to happen, so their simply being diplomatic.

It might also be a warning to NATO about preventing Georgia from being reabsorbed into the Russian empire (think old style Soviet Union).

You seriously need to keep up on events.
Russia just announced that military forces are standing down and that all offensive operations have stopped.

Their not "absorbing" Georiga, don't be sensationalist. They've made their point and now they've stopped and their hoping Saakashvili follows their lead.

They didn't set a foot into Georgian territory.

reply to post by Backwoods

Oh and for the record a nuke that small would not reach out much beyond a mile or two. The bombs used in Japan were just under a megaton. Or 10 times the size this weapons system can deliver.

Actually, the Hiroshima bomb was about 10-18 kilotons, no where near a megaton, a 100 kiloton blast would extend out way beyond a mile or two.
1000 kilotons= 1 megaton
The most powerful bomb exploded was during a Russian test, it was 50,000 kilotons

[edit on 8/12/2008 by Kr0n0s]

reply to post by netwarrior


Great work here! Starred and Flagged. Lets see how this plays out now, huh?

reply to post by The Godfather of Conspira


What you say makes good sense however my question is this, didnt Russia just last year test some heavy duty weapons that could blow up like a nuc only left no radiation? Seems like they had the capability to detonate something that would level the area but leave no dangerous radiation, wouldnt that be the weapon of choice rather than rendering the entire area off limits for the next 1,000 years?
Thanks, this situation is either the biggest red herring or russia is making this situation much like bushes Irac.

Originally posted by Backwoods

Oh and for the record a nuke that small would not reach out much beyond a mile or two. The bombs used in Japan were just under a megaton. Or 10 times the size this weapons system can deliver.

[edit on 11-8-2008 by Backwoods]

This data is grossly incorrect. The bombs used in Japan had a yield in the 12-15 kiloton (equivalent to 12 - 15,000 tons of TNT) range. Nowhere near a megaton (equivalent to 1,000,000 tons of TNT).

Originally posted by The Godfather of Conspira
Their not "absorbing" Georiga, don't be sensationalist. They've made their point and now they've stopped and their hoping Saakashvili follows their lead.

They didn't set a foot into Georgian territory.

Not what we're seeing on the news today.Until every last soldier is back in russia, the jury will still be out on whether russia is, in fact, attempting to recover part of their lost (and much lamented by them) soviet empire.

article

Russian forces opened a second battlefront in western Georgia on Monday, moving deep into Georgian territory from the separatist province of Abkhazia. They seized a military base in the town of Senaki and occupied police precincts in the town of Zugdidi.

On Tuesday, an Associated Press reporter counted 135 Russian military vehicles - included tanks, armored personnel carriers and three pieces of artillery - driving through Georgia toward Kodori Gorge. The northern part of the gorge is the only part of the separatist region of Abkhazia still held by Georgian forces, but they have come under attack in recent days.

And before anyone even goes there, remember that "propaganda" is a russian word.

Here's a YouTube video of
Tochka in action.

Originally posted by centurion1211
Until every last soldier is back in russia, the jury will still be out on whether russia is, in fact, attempting to recover part of their lost (and much lamented by them) soviet empire.

First, "every last soldier" won't return to Russia proper after what has happened, as you can imagine. Second, there is a difference between "trying to rebuild an empire" (which premise I find ridiculous) and trying to secure at least part of Russia's western borders that does not have NATO bases yet.

In final analysis, Russia will eventually (after much procrastination) return to S-Ossetia and Abkhazia and material borders will be created complete with bunkers and AA facilities. Georgia will be stuck in a limbo re: NATO membership since it has territories under dispute.

reply to post by centurion1211


I won't say Russia doesn't have the potential and means to raze Georgia and occupy them but I don't think it's likely.

And more to the point, it would escalate this into a whole new level and give the West a lot of leverage to step in and back the Georgians.

It would ruin any sympathy or credibility the Russians had so far and make them out to be aggressive, evil bastards the media is so relentlessly trying to portray them as.

It wouldn't be smart. It might be handy to get rid of Saakashvili and put a puppet in his place but he's a minor annoyance that can be dealt with relatively quickly as we've seen, he's not worth going to war for or risking war the US or NATO over.

Sure he's most likely taking orders from Washington and will become a NATO possession in the future, but for now, removing Saakashvili and occupying Georgia has a very high cost to benefit ratio for Russia.

Russia's not going to fall for the bait. Putin's smarter than that.
Notice how he restrained his military and marginalised the conflict to within the "break-away regions".
He wants to keep this controlled and minor (relatively speaking) because he doesn't want to risk losing all relations with the West over such an insignificant piece of dirt.

Putin's better than that. He's not going in. As much as he hates to admit it he needs the West economically more than ever now.

He's going to keep this as short and contained as possible, because he realises the Georgians would want him to go all out, and just commit all their forces to a full invasion so it would give them the ammo they need to call in their Western masters and push back Russia so they could grab some more land.

Pretty soon Saakashvili will come back down to reality and get over his "Territorial integrity" obsession and realise he can't keep an iron-fisted grip on people who don't want to be part of Georgia.

He'll let it go, the region will stabilise and Russia will see no need for further action.
I think the Georgians were surprised and shocked at Russia's response hence the plea to the Americans for help.

Next time Saakashvili won't be so stupid as to directly open fire on the Russians unprovoked.

Frankly, I would say Russia has every right to go into Georgia and teach them a thing or two about "disproportionate responses", but Russia is better than that and they want to stay steady with the US, so for now they'll settle for repelling the Georgians from Ossetia and leave it at at hat.

[edit on 12/8/08 by The Godfather of Conspira]