A Very Scary, Very Disturbing Blog Post About The Coming 2008 Economic Crash

My brother is a CFO for a fortune 500 corporation. He has an undergraduate degree in economics and a masters in international business. He has lived and worked all over the world, and he’s very astute when it comes to economic trends. His specialty is long range economic forecasts. When the Dow hit 14 thousand last fall, he told me it was overvalued for certain and would probably fall considerably, by a couple thousand points at least, within a year. This would have been considered bearish almost to the point of being irrational at the time. It closed Friday at 11,346.

I asked him recently where he thought the US and world economies were headed. He said that had never been a more difficult question to answer, mainly because of the price of oil, the falling dollar and the tightening of credit. There are many possible scenarios. The price of oil is the driving factor behind increasing inflation, quite similar to the late 1970s when we had a severe recession that lasted into the early 1980s. Once inflation really gets going, it can take years to get under control. So there’s no question we’re going to have inflation. The only question is how bad will it be and how long will it last, and nobody seems to be able to answer that question right now.

Unfortunately, the issue is further complicated by tightening credit. When it’s harder for people to borrow money for houses and cars, and harder for companies to borrow money for expansion, invariably there will be fewer jobs. This might help temper inflation somewhat, but the main driving factor, the price of oil, is not predictable at this point.

That’s on a world wide scale. In the USA specifically, our dollar is losing ground to almost every major world currency, especially the Euro. That drives inflation up. But because of the global nature of the economy these days, any slowdown in the USA will have implications to the world economy as a whole.

He said he believes the most likely scenario is a severe recession, similar to the one in the late 1970s/early1980s. The price of oil is going up faster now that it did then, even when adjusted for inflation. It has more than doubled in the last year and it never did that before, even in the late 1970s. The dollar is also falling rapidly, just like in the late 1970s. And while there, technically, wasn’t a credit crunch in the late 1970s/early 1980s, inflation had driven the cost of borrowing money so high that the interest rate on home loans was in the upper teens (I know, seems hard to believe now but those of us who were alive back then remember it well). So there are quite a few similarities.

Still, he said other scenarios are possible as well. The recession might not be that severe. The high price of oil is reducing demand, and a crash in the price is possible. The housing bubble bursting and the credit crisis could finally be bottoming out, or might in the next few months. The dollar will strengthen when the Fed raises rates and Wall Street, in a very rare change, would likely welcome modest increases because investors are starting to really worry about inflation. And we could even have an economic boom, quite possibly powered by an American transition to “green” technologies.

On the more negative side, is a world-wide depression possible? My brother says it is. Not likely, mind you, but definitely possible and it would be foolish to dismiss the idea as merely lunatic fringe stuff. The problem is that the world economy has changed so much in the last 30 years and has become so complicated that even the best economists can’t fully grasp all the cause-effect relationships and how all the different factors in all the economies would interact.

So many things are possible.

However, he did think that it would be impossible to “engineer” a world wide depression or even a severe recession. He says that’s where you really do start running into the lunatic fringe – people who think that powerful men are c

reply to post by windwaker


Well stated. When I talk to people about politics, I have to pretend that the system actually works the way it was supposed to.

I can't mention anything about candidates being selected by Bilderberg or the financial elite. They just won't hear it.

If I say anything about an economic collapse, they just talk about how we're in a "mild" recession. Never mind the fact that we're led by the worst President in modern American history.

I say forget 'em. If they're that dumb, let 'em have whatever's comin' to 'em. I'll look out for myself, and work with those who believe like I do.

Many, many people would lose their houses and land, and those houses and land would become the property of international banking entities.

Banks do not want empty houses and what do you think they will do with all of those empty homes, sell them, to whom? Most homeowners have a mortgage. Some that did not exercised their option to ease the financial crunch when the rates dropped… now that could have been a “rope a dope”. If people were to sell and bank the cash what would happen if the dollar is devalued, either way, people are screwed.

It is hard to imagine something that has never occurred and only the powers that be have the inside scoop and know the reasons why. Personally, I think we are at war and that war has escalated to include different groups who are power playing each other. For us everyday folks, we bare the scars and the hardships.

I have to put on a happy face and lie to them every moment of every day, because they will not have it any other way.

They live in fear. I have found that those that pretend ignorance probably are aware of the depth and are afraid to say anything. There is also a fear of the person you are speaking with being connected to “Big Brother”. Only those who have been brow beaten and terrorized for a long time lose the fear and get to the point that if they kill them, at least they were killed for telling the truth. So they just repeat what the news has told them. Some people you can’t be candid with. ATS is supposed to be anonymous, but, someone is watching and knows who you are and where you live and you will know when your post has upset them. Even some of the posters on ATS know more and will steer a topic away from the gut retching truth. The fact is that most posters who see these things are just happy to know that someone else sees them and they are not crazy as the world would have them believe.

…point about debt being called in. I am wondering if you have any sources on that?

After 911, if I remember correctly, mainstream TV news started saying that and has been saying it for a very long time. They knew this was coming back then as well as any one with one iota of perception knew that after 911 things changed and 911 was a dividing point.

Being realistic is not doom saying.

I'm going to make a super-thread on this topic.

reply to post by windwaker


That article is a bunch of BS mate, don't be afraid of someones BLOG!

All he did was re-state everything that Alex Jones spews.. nothing he said was original at all!!!

And last but not least, because this is the most important part, every story about American prison camps have been 100% debunked time and again.. Even cases where ATS members have gone to said sights and found that they where nothing at all like camps.

Sleep peacefully knowing the world is not coming to an end.

Originally posted by maus80


If there were a second great depression, it would mean a massive calling in of debt, and the money people have would suddenly be no good for paying off that debt. Many, many people would lose their houses and land, and those houses and land would become the property of international banking entities.




[edit on 29-6-2008 by maus80]

This should scare all people with the exception of a few families that are untouchable because of wealth and power. If the middle and lower classes are hauled off to these camps because they can no longer make ends meet, the people who depend on those people for their livlihoods will become the new poor. Once power is consolidated the powerful will become paranoid and will start killing off anyone whom they regard as a threat this means the wealthy but not powerful. Meanwhile the powerful will have a huge army of people in the FEMA camps which can be used to repress the descension of the wealthy who will uprise because of their falling fortunes.

The smart thing would be for the wealthy but not powerful to buy( while they still can) a few forclosed houses and pair up poor families in those houses so they do not become homeless. Immigrants already pair up in single dwelling houses inorder to make ends meet. The zoning laws should be changed.

[edit on 29-6-2008 by eradown]

Interesting find! But this sort of mentality has gone on years before now. Remember the dreaded year 2000? I think until it happens, be prepared but don't necessarily fear it. This blogger reminds me of that guy a few months back on ATS that was telling everyone to move into a mountain. Remember? He was telling everyone he had so many days left (until he would be out of reach) but that it was urgent for everyone to be away from cities by the year 2011. Is that guy still around or did he head for the hills?

Originally posted by narin
I'm going to make a super-thread on this topic.

Super-thread done. (2008-2012 End of Future is Now.)
Now for shameless self promotion

--> www.abovetopsecret.com...

The problem that I have is the decision of what to do with the money that I have at the bank. Whether or not if I should take half of it out to buy it on emergency food supplies, or take all of it out and exchange it for gold when the Amero comes out.

It bugs me to make these quick decisions *scratches head* If the event doesn't come I would have wasted half of my saved up money on excess food supplies. Well with the exchange for gold I guess it doesn't matter because it doesn't lose it's value so there won't be any risk to lose in any investments.

The theory that the government is going to put everyone in huge prisons just seems completely absurd to me. We're already slaves to corporations, income taxes, etc, so there's really no need waste the massive amount of money and effort that it would take to imprison millions of people. Getting caught up in these ridiculous fantasy situations only makes you more oblivious to what's actually going on around us.

iF YOU CARRY ON BEING A GOOD LITTLE SLAVE YOU LIKLEY (sorry for the caps) be Ok.

hmmmm this news kind of scared me and sent chills through my body. You know i was on the phone wit my friend and we felt like everything was coming to an end, everything waz going down hill for us, it feels like the world is changing, everything is not like it use 2 be, i dont know whats happening, but i just hope for the best for this world, cause things around here are not looking to good.

reply to post by Shrukin89


As I said earlier inthis thread don''t forget that in the last depression, you had to cash in your gold for dollars or face fines and prison.

It is by no means a bad thing. Imagine being the ones to witness the end of your own civilization. You can survive it, those people running the show are only human also and bleed like the rest of us. Don't give into propaganda and don't trust them. They're going to stage some Nazi world event to say that the camps are safe and an evacuation method for the people but i have seen the benches with shackles and the fences with barbed wire pointed in. Even ur canadian friends up here can turn all their Military Bases into camps to accomodate some of you. DO NOT TRUST ANYONE but the people who are going to fight with you.

It is a rebellion and a revolution we have on our hands people. It will only be as bloody as the Feds make it.

reply to post by Siren


Sorry, your political rant on the Patriot Act has nothing to do with the topic, and it doesn't change my statement: Just because you want doom and gloom, does not mean its going to occur. Its true. Many people on ATS have been praying for economic Armageddon since the early 2000s, according to the archives, and were not there yet.

The government has always stockpiled food, because the country is huge and therefore localized natural disasters are likely. This is not a sign of the end. Try again.

The doom and gloom sheeple are being led to the slaughter. I tried to help, but I give up. Go forth, sheeple - the end is nigh! Buy into commodity bubbles! Build the nuclear fallout shelter on a flood plain! Go go go!

[edit on 29-6-2008 by ALightinDarkness]

reply to post by windwaker


People sightseeing while the crash is underway? Well, don't blame them, they're just enjoying what's left to eat in this Big Apple that will surely not last for long as it was already rotten to the core by the big shots in Wall Street.

Rather think about what world you WANT TO live in, and how you can build it, or contribute to it. Perhaps you folks are just not living in the right world, so Second Great Depression or not, it all comes down to the fact the world has taken a wrong direction, and you need to evolve by leaving it and building a different form of organization of life...

Still not sure where things are headed, but interesting discussion - thanks for posting...

An economist friend sent me this release a few weeks ago. Not as alarmist as some scenarios perhaps, but is fitting this topic and may be of interest:

International experts foresee collapse of U.S. economy
Posted By Hielema, Bert

May 2008

And you thought that I had a gloomy outlook on the economy. Now the bad news pops up everywhere.

Harry Koza in the Globe and Mail quotes Bernard Connelly, the global strategist at Banque AIG in London, who claims that the likelihood of a Great Depression is growing by the day. Martin Wolf, celebrated columnist of the U.K.-based Financial Times, cites Dr. Nouriel Roubini of the New York University's Stern School of Business, who, in 12 steps, outlines how the losses of the American financial system will grow to more than $1 trillion - that's one million times $1 million. That amount is equal to all the assets of all American banks.

Every day now, thousands of people all over the U.S. and Great Britain are walking away from their homes - simply mailing their house keys to the banks - as housing bailout plans fail. With unemployment growing, the next phase will hit commercial real estate making the financial institutions the unwilling owners not only of quickly depreciating houses, but also of empty strip malls and even larger shopping centers. The next domino to fall will be credit card defaults, and after that... who knows? There are so many exotic funds out there, with trillions of dollars in paper - or rather computer-screen money - all carrying assorted acronyms, and all about to disintegrate into nothingness. Over the next couple of years, scores of banks that have thrived on these devices, based on quickly disappearing equities, will fail.

The most frightening forecast so far comes from the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), available for 200 euros - about $300 - for 16 issues annually. Its prediction is quite specific. Where my warnings never spelled out an exact date, this think tank has it pegged precisely. Here are its very words: "The end of the third quarter of 2008 (thus late September, a mere seven months from now) will be marked by a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis. "At that time indeed, the cumulated impact of the various sequences of the crisis will reach its maximum strength and affect decisively the very heart of the systems concerned, on the front line of which (is) the United States, epicenter of the current crisis. "In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into - get this - a collapse of the real economy, (the) final socio-economic stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles and of the pursuance of the U.S. dollar fall. The collapse of U.S. real economy means the virtual freeze of the American economic machinery: private and public bankruptcies in large numbers, companies and public services closing down."

The report goes on to say that we are entering a period for which there is no historic precedent. Any comparisons with previous situations in our modern economy are invalid. We are not experiencing a "remake" of the 1929 crisis nor a repetition of the 1970s oil crises or 1987 stock market crisis. What we will have, instead, is truly a global momentous threat - a true turning point affecting the entire planet and questioning the very foundations of the international system upon which the world was organized in the last decades. The report emphasizes that it is, first and foremost, in the United States where this historic happening is taking an unprecedented shape (the authors call it "Very Great U.S. Depression").

It continues to predict that, although this crucial event is global, it will be the beginning of an economic 'decoupling' between the U.S. and the rest of the world. However, non 'decoupled' economies will be dragged down the U.S. negative spiral. Concerning stock markets, the GEAB anticipates that international stocks would plummet by 40 to 80 per cent depending where in the world they are located, all affected in the course of the year 2008 by the collapse of the real economy in the U.S. by the end of summer. The European authors of this report - it appears simultaneously in French, German and English - state that they simply and without prejudice try to describe in advance the consequences of the ominous trends at play in this 21st-century world, and to share these with their readers, so that they can take the proper means to protect themselves from the most negative effects.

So there you have it. Three reports from three different sources, all well regarded, and all pointing to a disastrous fall-out from our monetary moves.

apologies for the longish quote, but I had no link to refer to and this seemed the easiest way to share...

Anyway - there seems to be several versions of this "sky-is-falling" scenario depicted in the forums and blogospheres. I find it an intriguing corollary that many have the consistent Autumn 2008 hammer fall time frame.

Who knows? For me, stocking up on a few extra emergency supplies is prudent policy anyway - so a few more survival items, extra food and water, first-aid stuff, cash, solar battery devices, water filters, escape plans, and the like - plus a few strategic investment $heltering changes will not hurt and may come in handy.

Other than that - I'm not going to lose any sleep. Life's too short - I won't spend it worrying myself silly and looking over my shoulder. Family, fun activities, work, mental and physical stimulation - these are the things that will get me through most situations.

But - if (a big "if" at that) the stuff hits the fan - being ready for tomorrow adds peace of mind today...

Take care of yourselves, my friends...


[edit on 6/29/2008 by Outrageo]

reply to post by ALightinDarkness


Whats really at issue here is the fact that the federal reserve is a privatly owned central bank that is kept going by the debt slaves you and me. It has got to the point in this musical chair game that the chairs are falling in number and the participants are increasing and when the music stops there going to be a pile up.BTW I gave you a star for your last post in error it was meant for outrageo

[edit on 29-6-2008 by Swingarm]

I'm sure the Mason is gunna tell you it's okay.

Do you know about money and the economy, Mason?

If nobody believed in it, it would be useless. Why should I care about it? What has money ever done good? Has money ever freed people from oppression? Will money ever solve itself? because it seems like that's always what we try to do. I don't like working 40 plus hours a week only to lose half of that time to feed my car, which I could be powering with water or hydrogen or some other efficient fuel, but no it's more than 50 bucks just to fill up a Dodge Neon now! We try addressing our problems with the same problems. How ever will we get relief, Mister Mason?

So yeah sure Mr. Mason. I'm supposed to believe in this joke system and just DEAL with it, because the elite need more caviar for their cats?? I This late in the game, why are you wanking everybody off like they should just stay put and be happy and don't listen to all these "crazy conspiracies". Oh hey umm isn't this site here about alternative research, and aren't you a member of this site? The Pot calling the kettle black, or are you planted here to spread Masonic propaganda and mislead people? Is everything just too complicated for us simple folk to understand? It's not too complicated. All these things people are clinging to are fabricated systems of mind control.

Yes, mind control.

I'm HOPING for an economic crash, because this rotten system needs to just # off and die. Let me go #ing play my guitar in the woods and just chill.

I think we could all use the relief of the burden of an economy... even though to some, it sounds like the end of the world, ummm I would say it's the opposite. The only things that can save us is to let the economy fall, and just walk away.

Just walk away.

[edit on 29-6-2008 by dunwichwitch]

reply to post by Outrageo


Thanks, Outrageo. That was the purpose of the original post.

I am not against the financial system in any way. I am upset for selfish reasons. I don't want to lose my money in the short term (between now and the September crash) so that I cannot invest later.

I am trying to figure out a way to physically survive the next few months, have enough food and water for real survival, and to stay out of trouble when it comes to dealing with unruly and violent citizens.

I am trying to figure out how I'm going to leave New York City and travel to Florida and still keep my day job, while dealing with the real possibility that money may have no value, and that there will be no flights to Florida if an economic crash should occur.

I refuse to get a gun. I know if I get a weapon to try to protect myself, the weapon will somehow make the odds of me getting shot greater. I live in Harlem, New York City, USA. Enough said.

Thursday I went to get food at a fast food restaurant in my neighborhood, and a man walked up to me, right when I was at the register, and asked me if I could buy some food for him and his little boy. He didn't ask for money, he asked for food!...And he didn't do it outside. He did it right at the front of the line, with his son right next to him.

It's already starting. I don't have to argue this at all. I just want to take action and get suggestions about real plans of action.

And as far as the prison camps (or just prisons) go, I would really expect the US to put people in prison if they willingly do not pay their debts. We do the same for people who don't pay their taxes. Why not peole who willingly default on their mortgages or credit card debt. Don't you think the large Saudi and Chinese companies and banks that have bailed us out of our foolishness would demand the same thing?

Pay your debts by August 29th.