Does anyone think McCain has a chance?

I been reading on his chances for winning and few are giving him any chance.I just dont see Obama giving America what we need for our future.McCain has pure experience over Obama,including wanting to bring back off shore drilling to lower gas prices.Not some guy who was in congress just a shorttime.Obama wants to get rid of nuclear weapons.That makes no sense since other nations will have them!!!We will be a sitting duck.

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

“McCain shouldn’t win it,” said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain’s prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.

“It is one of the worst political environments for the party in power since World War II,” added Alan Abramowitz, a professor of public opinion and the presidency at Emory University. His forecasting model — which factors in gross domestic product, whether a party has completed two terms in the White House and net presidential approval rating — gives McCain about the same odds as Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and Carter in 1980 — both of whom were handily defeated in elections that returned the presidency to the previously out-of-power party. “It would be a pretty stunning upset if McCain won,” Abramowitz said.

What’s more, Republicans have held the presidency for all but 12 years since the South became solidly Republican in the realignment of 1968 — which is among the longest runs with one party dominating in American history. “These things go in cycles,” said presidential historian Robert Dallek, a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles. “The public gets tired of one approach to politics. There is always a measure of optimism in this country, so they turn to the other party.”

That desire for change also tends to manifest itself at the end of a president’s second term. Only twice in the 20th century has a candidate from the same party as a two-term president won the presidency, most recently in 1988, when George H.W. Bush replaced the term-limited Ronald Reagan, who was about twice as popular in the last year of his presidency as President George W. Bush is now.

But the biggest obstacle in McCain’s path may be running in the same party as the most unpopular president America has had since at least the advent of modern polling. Only Harry Truman and Nixon — both of whom were dogged by unpopular wars abroad and political scandals at home — have been nearly as unpopular in their last year in office, and both men’s parties lost the presidency in the following election.

Though the Democratic-controlled Congress is nearly as unpopular as the president, Lichtman says the Democrats’ 2006 midterm wins resemble the midterm congressional gains of the out-party in 1966 and 1974, which both preceded a retaking of the White House two years later.

One of the few bright spots historians noted is that the public generally does not view McCain as a traditional Republican. And, as Republicans frequently point out, McCain is not an incumbent.

“Open-seat elections are somewhat different, so the referendum aspect is somewhat muted,” said James Campbell, a professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo who specializes in campaigns and elections.

“McCain would be in much better shape if Bush’s approval rating were at 45 to 50 percent,” Campbell continued. “But the history is that in-party candidates are not penalized or rewarded to the same degree as incumbents.”

Campbell still casts McCain as the underdog. But he said McCain might have more appeal to moderates than Obama if the electorate decides McCain is “center right” while Obama is “far left.” Democrats have been repeatedly undone when their nominee was viewed as too liberal, and even as polls show a rise in the number of self-identified Democrats, there has been no corresponding increase in the number of self-identified liberals.

Campbell also notes that McCain may benefit from the Democratic divisions that were on display in the primary, as Republicans did in 1968, when Democratic divisions over the war in Vietnam dogged Humphrey and helped hand Nixon victory.

Still, many historians remain extremely skeptical about McCain’s prospects. “I can’t think of an upset where the underdog faced quite the odds that McCain faces in this election,” said Sidney Milkis, a professor of presidential politics at the University of Virginia. Even "Truman didn’t face as difficult a political context as McCain.

[edit on 21-6-2008 by alienstar]

At 4:00 pm EST on election day in 2004 nobody was giving Bush a chance against Kerry. I listened to a local radio report that already called Kerry the winner.

I wouldn't put too much faith in what anybody SAYS at this point. People are being led to say what they're supposed to say.

Plus, look at the Obama results after more people got to know the REAL Obama.

He lost OH, PA, TX, IN, KY, WV, and PR, many of which were by large margins. He is not a lock to win PA in the fall by any means. Nor is he a lock to win OH, NJ, or even CA. McCain is a liberal to moderate running against a far-left liberal. McCain is loved by Hispanics, Obama not so much. McCain isn't hated by too many people. And I know many, many disillusioned Hillary supporters who are going to vote for McCain.

No, I don't think McCain has a chance.

We will all be stuck with Jimmy Carter II.

Unless Obama is arrested for THIS . And he should be!!

We've gotta drill here at home. Obama will block that.
I can only hope to God that man doesn't get anywhere near the Oval Office.

But to answer your question ... McCain won't win.

Let's be clear on a few things. This race comes down to voter prefernce AND political strategy.

McCain has three strikes against him. a) The very unpopular Iraq war. b) The failing economy, and c) a very tarnished GOP "brand."

Obama has three strikes aginst him. a) Race prejudice. b) A short resume, and c) the growing perception that he's a lot smug.

The deck now seems irrevocably stacked against Johbn McCain. Is it? No. Why? You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to know that he;s still got a lot of options open to him. the general election is in many ways like a poker game. Old age and experience can beat youth and skill. It's not easy, but it can be done.

Let's not forget that Hillary Clinton is out of the race because her political strategy was just plain wrong. She bet wrong, and she lost. In her own icy way, she too was smug. But...we shouldn;t forget that the people who managed her campaign bear some culpability. She took their advice, and they were wrong.

Obama and McCain each have paid political advisors. As they stand right now, each camp is highly distinct.

Obama has selected advisors who are young and idealistic. They are more in tune with younger voters, and they've giot a better grasp of current and future technical and social trends. They are better at what is called "mass appeal."

McCain has selected older men and women who have "battlefield expeirence." They know how The System works. Their lack of idealism is made up for in their ability to speak and be heard by older voters, who out number young voters by a factor of 2 to 1. Their lack of tech savvy is made up for by their ability to reach peole through their wallets.

In many respects, this election is Barack Obama's to win...or...to lose. Most of the mistakes he's made so far can be chalked up to his inexpeirence. His advisors have been blind-sided by relatively minor things that they didn't anticipate. They've also made certain presumptions that have turned out to be quite wrong.

McCain's operators can't relate to today's young voter. They're not trying to do that at all. Why? Simple math. You can chalk it up to generational politics, but the simple truth is that older voters really do out number the young. This myopia actually makes their job easier. All they really need to do make one pitch. "Mr. Smarty-pants over there is going to take what you worked so hard to get."

Sounds totally impossible? Let's not forget that Mr. Obama is currently falling prey to his own ego. He's showing all the signs of a man who really does thi nk he's "all that." He has the money. He has the poll numbers. why should he NOT swagger and brag?

If you're one of McCain's handlers, you want the Senator from Illinois to be loud and proud. You may even go out of your way to feed Barack's wgo, just so he'll keep strutting and pontificating. Then, you instruct your candidate to play to his age, and be humble. Don't verbally jab Obama when he steps in it. Damn him with faint praise,and suggest that his lack of knowledge (or policy cohesion) is understandable, due to his youth and inexperience.

There was a word for this during the Cold War. It's called realpolitik. In purest Machievellian terms, its a way of posturing so as to appear more worldly. Realism...even the perception of it...can make you look smarter than you really are. The Greek orator and debate expert Socrates counseled that the appearance of humility was more powerful than the appearnace of exuberance.

The lesson is to be who and what you are, or; to be such a skilled liar that nobody can tell he differnece. McCain's gamble is this. In his rise to greatness, Obama may try too hard to be more than he really is. If he falls short, he will look disingenuous. Fake. False modesty, or even too much self-centered agrandizement can rob him of his Presidential prize.

Need proof? Bob Dole failed to be himself, or anyone else. Al Gore tried to be all things to all people, and it cost him florida. John Kerry's conceit is still legendary. Howard Dean, famous for his campaign killing scream, turned voters off almost over night. Michael Ducacus went down in flames after a very famous tank ride. Fritz Mondale, handicapped by Geraldine "pottie mouth" Ferarro, floundered and sank because he couldn't convince anyone to take him seriously.

McCain can't win on policy grounds, so he needs to fight this battle on purely emotional terms. This has to be a battle of perception. If Barack Obama can be painted as an inexperienced guy who means well, it may be possible for John McCain to win because a majority of voters will see him as the "wiser" and "safer" alternative.

Yes, I believe that he has a decent chance at winning as long as he can stay within striking distance in the polls. He can definitely win it on policy, IMO. What does he need to do? To begin, he needs to stress his most conservative positions. Iraq, energy policy, gun rights, abortion, etc, are all potential winners for him amongst conservatives, evangelicals and right-leaning moderates. His challenge lies in convincing those voters that he really IS a conservative. The problem has been they have become disillusioned by a Republican party that they view as not being conservative enough over the last 8 years. That's particularly true of fiscal policy.

Next, he needs to follow the old tradition of painting his opponent as a far-left, elitist liberal. He's going to get his first major opportunity as early as this week, when the USSC rules on Heller vs DC. That'll put gun rights center-stage in this campaign, at least for a few days, and its something that the McCain camp needs to be ready to pounce on by focusing on Obama's past support for handgun and semi-automatic weapon bans. It doesn't help Obama at all that the very areas that gun rights are huge (the south, midwest, plains states and the west excluding the coastal areas) are the very areas that Obama is vulnerable and that most gun owners in those areas are already borderline paranoid of being stripped of their 2nd amendment rights after the gun grabbing overseas in recent years as well as our own 90s AWB. Combined with the USSC ruling this week, this is one of the few issues that could be truly devastating for Obama.

So, in summary, the gameplan for McCain is simple: emphasize your most conservative positions, while contrasting those with Obama's most liberal. McCain's struggle will be to shed his own tag as a 'liberal' within conservative circles and the best way to do that is by making the other guy look a lot worse in that regard. We've already seen the beginnings of this in McCain's support of increased drilling and nuclear energy utilization, both positions that conservatives overwhelmingly support and that liberals are generally hostile to.













[edit on 22-6-2008 by vor78]

McCain has a VERY GOOD chance but everything in this election will hinge on the VICE PRESIDENT nominations. McCain ESPECIALLY needs a good one, simply because of his age. There's a very good chance his vice president would need to serve out McCain's term.

And as far as Obama is concerned, the democratic party now has a schism dividing it. Hillary as VP would heal that schism and the democratic party would be TRULY FORMIDABLE and virtually unstoppable!!

[edit on 22-6-2008 by jupiter869]

reply to post by RRconservative


You really shouldn't be calling anyone a blithering idiot RR.

Just wanted to thank several posters on this thread for their insightful and unbiased comments.

I normally don't read political threads, due to the almost constant pounding of polarization, eg "Hussein Obama vs McInsane".

There is, of course, always a place for strong personal opinion, but its tendency to obscure or undermine reasoned conversation can be rather depressing.

Really a breath of fresh air, and informative. Thank you.

Originally posted by grover
reply to post by RRconservative

 

You really shouldn't be calling anyone a blithering idiot RR.

You should really re-read ATS's policy on "one-line posts." You seem to do that alot.

I "HOPE" you can "CHANGE" that habit, in the "FUTURE."

Dang, I just used 3 of Hussein Obama's "catchphrases" in one sentence! I thought I was strong enough not to fall under Hussein Obama's evil cultlike spell....Maybe I was wrong?......NOT!

Originally posted by RRconservative
He has already claimed to have visited 57 states, claimed his uncle liberated a German death camp in WW2,....

You forgot one of my favorites .... SELMA!
According to Obamessiah - SELMA was responsible for Obama being born.
(forget the fact that SELMA came years and years AFTER Obama was born)

oy :shk:

I believe that McCain will be our next President.

Obama has alienated too many voters with his flip-flops, his race card (over and over again), video - 52 Seconds., etc.

I also want to point out that he might have been able to acquire some of the women who voted for Clinton, but each day he has made those votes float over to McCain's corner. With his last appeal to women "to get over it," he pretty much has squashed the 18+ million votes for Clinton to rally around McCain, even though all of them are not women voters but once Obama defamed the Presidential Seal, he has definitely become his own worst enemy.

DNC wanted Obama so much because they saw dollar signs. They didn't even care that their presumed candidate has zero experience, zero credibility etc. Democrats, overall, are usually loyal to their party, but Obama and the DNC have blown any chance of these 18+ voters to now rally around him while they pressure Clinton to unite the party at Obama's side starting with the 6/27/08 campaigning.

DNC has robbed Clinton and they have robbed 18+ American voters and they let us know very clearly that we don't count but they still think we will be sheep and follow their lead. Clinton supporters care about her, but they won't throw their vote away on Obama, in my opinion.

Personally he doesn't as popularity tells.

But, the same groups that worked hard to put Bush in the white house to do their bidding can pretty much get away again making McCain the winner of the elections.

I see a serious case of denial here... McCain is the sacrificial lamb this time around. The odds are so seriously stacked against him it just isn't funny.

people are tired of being bushwhacked... 8 years is enough
its the economy stupid
Only its die hard fans want anymore of Iraq
the Republican poll numbers are in the pits

Need I go on?

Originally posted by grover
I see a serious case of denial here... McCain is the sacrificial lamb this time around. The odds are so seriously stacked against him it just isn't funny.

people are tired of being bushwhacked... 8 years is enough
its the economy stupid
Only its die hard fans want anymore of Iraq
the Republican poll numbers are in the pits

Need I go on?

McCain and Obama are both very weak candidates. It could come down to who messes up least.

McCain has some positives.

Iraq is one of them. I don't know if you have heard, because of the media's reluctance to report it, but Iraq is going pretty good right now. So good it won't even be an issue during the election.

Grover you are right on about the economy!

McCain is also coming around on the need for oil independence. Offshore drilling in restricted areas is a start, the next biggie will be ANWR. "Hey honey, where do you want to vacation this year, the Grand Canyon or ANWR?"

Obama's idea of jumpstarting the economy is taxing everything in sight. No nation has ever taxed itself to prosperity.

Let's talk about poll numbers. This Democrat led Congress has the lowest ratings ever.

Then you have got to figure that 15-25% of Hillary voters will vote for McCain or stay home. That should be enough for McCain to pull it off.

Originally posted by RRconservative
No nation has ever taxed itself to prosperity.

FDR, Truman and Eisenhauer all seriously raised taxes on the wealthy and created an economic boom that lasted into the early 70's.

Bushes policy to give tax cuts to the wealthy effectively redistrubiting wealth upwards does not create jobs, it create income disparity.

I think McCain has a pretty good chance. For one thing, if we should happen to have a "terrorist" event before the election, people will flock to vote for the guy who they think will "keep them safe". Secondly, if the same people are counting the votes that did in 2000 and 2004, then he's got it in the bag.

Do I think he has a chance to win a fair election without a false flag op? No, I don't think so. But I'm fully expecting one of the above scenarios.

It is WAY too early to even begin to pick the winner. The McCain camp hasn't really even started campaigning yet. As I've said in another thread, I really think that McCain is sitting on his hands for the time being waiting for Obama to hang himself.

For me (even though i favor Obama) i don't think it's going
to matter much who wins.
This country is in such a shame that who ever wins won't be able in 8 not 4 years to right old wrongs.
Besides the whole game is rigged. You can put whom ever you want up there but the end result will pretty much be the same as they are just figureheads doing the bidding of others.
For me the whole Cabal needs to be taken down!
But that won't happen in America untill the crap has already hit the blades.
But i will go with whomever is saying change. For that is what we need.
And LOTS of it!
But maybe it's time for our dissolution. Maybe it is time for China and India to take the world's stage.
God knows the polliticians and big business are doing all they can to make it that way.
What do i fear the most?
Globalization for to provide for the have nots, you have to take from the haves.
And thats us baby
Third world here i come!