Global Economic Crash Late July!

reply to post by eagledriver

Whatever comes we should turn to each other and not against each other. We can help a lot of people who will need help. We should not see ourselves as feeding off each other like some grotesque creatures do. (cockroaches) I would like to feel that even if I fall and don't make it maybe I helped someone else make it. I'll try as hard as I can, for myself and those around me, I hope you will too.

reply to post by duffster

Because of a greedy elite ? I think so too.
Every other faction in the world seems to be bearing down on us, also.
I' ve come to the conclusion that all the people in Washinton now actually believe it will take great suffering ( by the decent and good people ) to bring about their stupid dream of NWO Nirvana...
They' re puppets, and they have no sense like normal folks.

reply to post by malcr


During the last days of the Roman empire, Roman city (I can't remember the name) was in the path of a barbarian army. The Roman army was in no position to repel the attack. The people knew what would occur during the sacking of their town. For whatever reason the barbarians bypassed the town. The townspeople were dissapointed. Such is the same today. Life in the west is pretty safe, cushy, and boring. People sub conciously yearn for excitement, even if it results in a terrible outcome. We had a large fire 2 days ago in the podunk town where I live. Most of the town came to watch the disaster. Nothing ever changes. There is an old saying "may you live in interesting times". That is what everyone wants even if the interesting times are bad. Most of the doom and gloom is just people longing to live in interesting times. I for one am happy in my boring life, as I have seen too much sorrow already. I hope there are alot of people like me to stop any over reaction to any societal distress.

Market action today was pretty intense. It's rare not to rally into OPEX, and really rare to tank like it did today. We could see a good bounce Monday and FED weeks have been pretty good for bulls for a while now. However alot of people involved in the index futures that settle on the AM opening price were trapped into losing positions overnight. This could bleed into Monday with margin calls on those that played carelessly. A crash could happen Monday, several technical indicators necessary for such an event are present and in play. In particular the Hindenberg Omen (we had another hindy Thursday, thats 4 in a cluster), and the breach of some signifigant technical and psychological support levels. However, a good bounce is just as likely. If it bounces I don't think that we will see the crash (15% or greater downward move over short period of time is the definition of crash i'm using) till latet in the Summer.

Personally even though I think we need to crash, I'll gladly flip sides and ride with the bulls for a runup. But I'll bail in a heartbeat once we hit some overhead resistance and look for a good entry point to attempt to profit from any decline. I'm not a sadist who would like to see the suffering caused by a massive market dislocation, but the crash scenario would allow some much needed dead weight to be removed from the system. Then we can rebuild and move on.

Jefwane...any chance you hang out on ticker forum?

Cyber yuppers, quite a bit, almost as much as I'm on ATS. I also follow Mish, Calculated Risk, and ML-Implodometer. Tickerforum is the only website I've found valuable enough to donate to regularly. Bullish trading advice is a dime a dozen and you can find it everywhere and especially on CNBC.

[edit on 21-6-2008 by jefwane]

If you have ever driven the backroads in a backwater, you know this is true. And if this assessment wasn't so sad/accurate - it might be amusing on a late night comedy show. But it's not. It's real. Good luck with the slow crash, someone will have to take the night watch:

www.comradesimba.com...

It's been bankrupt now since Greenscam left and has been propped-up with life support, just to keep the digital fake figures & graphs doing their puzzling act, playing for extra-time, to accumulate as much as oil revenue in the shortest possible time and do the 'cut n run' Olympic marathon into China, where the next Houdini's Act will take place.

Never rely on a Bankers Broker to lend you an Umbrella

reply to post by bruxfain


Yes, I've actually thought the same thing last week. What we don't see is the other side of those trying to save the USA from the NWO. Not sure if we'll ever know who they are. In my spirit, I sense there's a HUGE battle raging 'underground'; how do we know this? History repeats itself. However, you need to go to the library and look for US History starting back in the 1950's and go back from there.

reply to post by son of PC


Does anyone remember John Titor?
I think we are going to see the start of the division between the city and the country he spoke of.
As things deteriorate, we are most likely to see mass civil conflict. After people stop fighting each other on the streets, they will then turn their anger towards the the Federal Government. The result of this will be armed struggle between government troops and a highly organised Militia Movement. Remember , there are a lot of experienced, well trained Iraq war vets who are very unhappy with government. As this plays out thousands will leave the cities for smaller SAFER isolated rural communities where people will work together to survive and have their liberties restored. Those who decide to remain in the cities will probably have to give up most of their rights in the name of security.

DO NOT stay in the cities when this happens, they will not be safe for various reasons.

reply to post by jefwane


Rare not to rally on options expiration??? Volatility is huge on days like this and we often trade lower. Where are you getting your information? Remember this was quadruple Expiration, not just 1 , 2 or 3. Everything was expiring yesterday, along with a few rebalances of the S&P.

reply to post by traderonwallst


I dunno if anyone has said this but thanks for your updates. You took Jefwane! They are great additions to the thread. All of them are.
It's good to hear this stuff coming from people who actually understand wallstreet

-ChriS

[edit on 21-6-2008 by BlasteR]

[edit on 21-6-2008 by BlasteR]

I honestly enjoy traders' posts as well. He can come off as a bit overbearing and likes to brag a little too much (confidence is a necessity for successful trading though) and I'm not into that (at least not here anyway). I can't say anything about him talking his book because i've been known to do that myself. I've only been trading options for a year but that is what I mostly trade right now.here is the S&P performance during OPEX during the time I've been active or interested in trading (as oposed to investing). Rally, may have been to strong of a word, but in my experience I'm so used to a positive bias during opex week I'm usually flat or looking at longer dated options during that week if active at all. I've had a really good couple of weeks (thanks to certain financials) and Friday was awesome for me.

I've traded more these past couple of weeks than I have since the Bear Sterns thing. I've honestly been trading under a bear thesis for about a year now. I'd love to simply find and buy a good company stock or etf sector that is performing set my stops and check in on it regularly, take some profits and not spend so much time in research and T&A; but until we come to a day where I'm not worried about waking up one day and finding out some big bank is dead, a bond insurer has gone bankrupt, indictments have been unsealed (in a perfect world), there has been a dislocation in the bond market, something big blew up in Europe (most likely finance related), a currency crisis or some geo-political event has sparked chaos, I'm most comfortable buying puts against industries and companies that I know are in trouble, I'll also go selectively long as a hedge or to try to catch a short term bounce and only with money that I can afford to lose. My retirement has been moved into the most risk averse things I can find. There is a very simple and effective technical indicator I'm waiting on to re-invest it. I don't care if I miss the bottom of the market for re-investing. I'm not interested in looking for diamonds amongst feces with my nest egg.

But in the end I could care less if someone who disagrees with me is a better trader. What this thread is about is if a crash is possible. I say yes. We still have serious issues in financials, interesting technical signals,dollar weakness, looming recession (i believe we are in one already), a commodity bubble, geo-political instabillity, rising unemployment, rampant inflation, and corrupt leaders. With only a couple or three of those things going on I'd be more optimistic,and more willing to take risks but with all of them right here, right now i'm perfectly happy looking for damaged goods and placing my bets with my at risk capital and preserving capital as best possible with the largest amount of my assetts.

[edit on 22-6-2008 by jefwane]

[edit on 22-6-2008 by jefwane]

I hate to pile more bad news on top off what has already been voiced but there are some obvious this here that are being overlooked:

1] we the united states is completly and totally broke, in the red, awash in debt to almost every foreign country in the world.

2] in recent months congress has yet again had to raise the ceiling on the national debt to over 9 trillion dollars to even allow the govt to even continue running.

3] even if every single troop and mercenery left iraq yesterday the monies tour all hoping for would not magically appear in our pockets because it never left there in the first place.

4] remember, we in the united states have NOT funded or paid in any way shape or form one single penney that has been spent on this thing called a war. each "emergency spending" request has been BORROWED from other countries, mostly from china.

5] granted though we have spent billions of dollars, but where has that all gone? waste fraud and abuse are the first that come to mind. add on the out of control spending of the "military industrial complex", the "financial complex", the "pharmacutical complex", the "agriculture complex" and last but not least the health care boys and girls and you get a pretty good picture of how we have wound up where we are now.

6] today the saudi's reluctanly agreed to gradually increase production by 900k barrels per day, but it came with a stern tounge lashing. in which they were right. supplies were not the issue, go look in your own front yard.

7] friday was the 6th out of 7 the market closed down.

8] a market value of 12,000 is bogus, overinflated and worthless just as our paper money is.

9] when money can be created "out of nothing" into something and injected into the system as the illegal fed has continued to illegally do the insanity we are seeing will never end until the entire system collapses on itself.

i am not a banker or broker, own not one share of stock. just the same as you all trying to figure out which end is up.

Okay...Yes, there is a crash coming. There was even an article on CNBC.com warning investors of this. Many experts expect the stock market to drop significantly in July of this year, and they are warning the average investor to pull their money out. Here's a link to the actual article on CNBC.com:

RBS Says Switch to Cash to Avoid 'Nasty' Selloff

You will not find any mention of this on the US CNBC cable news channel, but if you watch CNBC World (CNBC Asia and CNBC Europe) they've been talking about this for months. I guess they are more realistic about the impending doom in other countries.

This will not be the end of the world. All you have to do is make it through these next couple of years. Yes, I really believe there will be social unrest, extreme poverty and unprecedented suffering here in the US, but you wont have to go and hide in the woods either.

Just take as much money (US dollars) as you can spare, and convert it to other currencies or buy gold. Also, take some of that money and invest in emerging markets in Asia, and keep the money there for 5 to 10 years, because that's where the growth will be. An analyst on CNBC Asia suggested this about two weeks ago.

I believe there will always be money here in the US to keep it running...it just wont be American money. It will be foreign money, as many foreign investors have already bought a lot of American institutions. You must realize that a new global society is inevitable, with United States dominance slowly winding down.

What you will see is simply a massive exchange of power. Our country is being acquired financially, but it will still remain the good old U.S.A. The world needs America to stay "working" or else the whole system will collapse. We may lose a lot of our luxuries, but we will have just enough to continue being consumers. I mean, this is a business after all.

This is planned. The crash is coming and the only thing that will contain the civil unrest is martial law. In a time of martial law there are no elections. As I said, this is planned. Also, the many fighting for freedom and change up until the crash will be targeted and systematically erased. These people are already 'tagged' via the terror watch lists. I have already moved my family overseas and I will be joining them in 2 weeks time. By end of July there will be no flights. Plan, prepare and execute by July 23rd.

Xu7cV

Well, i have to raise the BS flag on this thread. Every, i mean EVERY, thread ive ever seen on here predicting something with a date has NEVER come true. See ya in August when everything is fine.

This (global stock crash beginning in Japan) was clearly predicted about 20 yrs ago by Maitreya, the World Teacher, who also forecast other major events like the end of the cold war, the re-unification of East & West Germany, the release of Nelson Mandela, the fall of Margaret Thatcher plus many earthquakes and other shifts in the world. All these huge events published and sent to the media just prior to their happening! They have been recorded in a publication called Share International.

The Teacher returns for all humans as we begin a new age - the Age of Aquarius.

No reason to fear, though. Yes, these are the ugly remains of a dying era, but we are embarking upon a new path...ed toward a golden future, bathed in light.

Maitreya will speak to all Humanity on TV and ignite a movement to start sharing the world's resources more equitably. His love, His overwhelming energy, His incisive mind and His wise influence will be enough to persuade us from the direction we're in now - which otherwise would be straight into the abyss.

"Man must share or die. There is no other choice."
"Let me take you into a new time, where no two days are alike..."
- Maitreya

www.Justice4Peace.org

Originally posted by cpdaman
those that watch bond prices may have noted the 2yr has risen in the last month or so to almost 3% trying to force the FED's hand in raising rates.

Raising rates (outside of a .25% bone) is not going to happen in any significant way because of the pain it would likely bring to the highly LEVERAGED financial sector. so instead the only way i know to bring down rates would be a FLIGHT to perceived safety into bonds. How does the gov't /fed orchestrate a flight to safety -well stocks have got to go south.

maybe the fed simply stops buying futures in the DJIA, which they (PPT) were rumoured to be doing when the markets were panicking in march, or perhaps reuters plays up recession talk, or simply they pressure banks to report more of the losses that have gone unreported

so even if we don't see a crash , i see stocks falling because the fed/govt does not like where the bond market is right now, and they need bond prices to rise (yields to fall on the two year toward 2%) and if the stock /bond market is a see-saw then when bonds go up, stocks.....

[edit on 19-6-2008 by cpdaman]

gee , bond yields are down on the two year from 3% to 2.70%

and stock have followed south like they need to.

In a financial system in a world of pain and anticipating more and more writeoffs so long as the underlying capital of the banks (is housing! prices which are gonna fall for another year at absolute minimum) then these things can not afford rising interest rates and the fed whose fed funds rate takes the que from the bond market can not afford to hike rates to where the bond market is telling it to........so stocks have got to fall to bring bond yields down (prices up) ( a flight to "safety" of bonds) to where they are compatible with a fed and financial system in need of keeping rates LOW!

how far to fall? dont know but rising oil is good for investment banks trying to rebuild their losses and bad for dow as well, so this fall will likely take us to the 10,100- 10, 800 area in the next 8 weeks.

P.s any mid east attacks or "attacks" domestically will take things lower.

I would add to positions long GOld and short DJIA to hedge for either deflation or inflation ( and i'm not talking about consumer price inflation-that is a given)

[edit on 26-6-2008 by cpdaman]

The crash will happen!
I (obviously) don't know, if it's going to be in July this year.
What I do know, is that when I go shopping this weekend I will spend a lot more than usual!
Thx OP for reminding me!
I can't start growing my own garden, 'cause I live on a 30-odd foot boat! There's hardly enough room for me! let alone a garden!!

One poster wrote: 'When it happens, please share!"
Family is a must, if I'm not single, then madam will eat first, but everyone else can swap for my "last pack of..." But I sure won't be so flipin' stupid to tell ANYONE (even family) that I have half a ton of pasta, rice and beans on board! ROFL!!! I'll be dead within minutes if everyone else is starving!
And I neither own, nor could use an MG against poor starving souls....
. o O (knowing myself I probably would give my stockpiles away and suddenly realize my soft heart has just made me commit suicide... )


But even if it doesn't come to that: everybody who has taken this warning seriously, will be able to save money and possibly keep financial stability, when the prices go up in the near future... At least until everything settles down! (I think we all agree it will be a bumpy ride!)


Good luck and @ all be warned!

Samuel

[edit on 26-6-2008 by Aldolas]
me stupid, me forgets most important of points...:
Edit to add:
I think the Market has been in for a crash for a while, but something or someone is holding it up artificially, because it is not quite time...
NWO seems ready, the question is what are they waiting for?
Please not WWIII...
BTW: (have you)Noticed the UFO spottings by the police 'copter last week and some soldiers a couple of days ago?
Bluebeam/Darkknight or possibly swap from war against terror to war against aliens?



Please don't hate me for believing in this date, but I reckon 2012 will be the end of NWO and it will only be in full power for a very short time(approx 3 months or 91odd days). So 2008 is IMHO still a wee bit too early for everything to completely crash.
I hope!!!

[edit on 26-6-2008 by Aldolas]

[edit on 26-6-2008 by Aldolas]
How often can I reformulate one effin' post?
Gotta go to bed, if it ain't right, it ain't right!
Sam the nutter

[edit on 26-6-2008 by Aldolas]