Global Economic Crash Late July!

reply to post by bruxfain


Well I agree it may be a rope a dope and I don't like it but it sounds about right...... If Obama wins and things get ugly you can bet your last can of beans he will get the blame for it. That's how it goes in politics and I would't put it past those in power to screw the guy and by extension black America... They think they have it bad now? Just wait until this goes down...

Btw... You won't have to worry about "muslim" terriosm if things get bad. You will have some good old fashion FEMA style terriosm to deal with when the fhit hits the san...

Lest we not forget - the bond markets still rule the world.

Watch 10 year yields around and about from government agencies as your signs of any distress.

The two year trading ranging yield spreads have yet to be broken.

reply to post by WyrdeOne


some of you have said to buy gold. Good thinking, but silver is a much, much better idea. lets say you want to barter for a chicken. have fun getting change for that 1 oz gold coin.

1 oz of gold is worth around 50oz of silver, much easier to make change with.

read the forums at www.kitco.com to learn all the fundamentals about why buying silver bullion is better than gold.

1 last thing - don't forget how gold was confiscated from 1935 to 1975 and was basically illegal to use. Silver has never been confiscated.

reply to post by Agit8dChop


Alright...lets get one thing straight. The financial sector is beat up granted, but a lot of those other sectors everyone points out is down and their losses being masked by the rise in oil stocks are down because of the cost of oil. So...now if we see a pull back in oil stocks due to a decline in oil we will not see a melt down in the markets. Those beat up stock (not financials) will gradually rise as oil comes down and costs go lower. Stop screaming that the markets are already lower without the run up in oil stocks. Take the financials out of the picture and we are going through cycles. Cycles we have seen over and over again in these markets. Oil price goes up.......airlines go down. Gas prices go up.....retailers go down.... Am I the only one out there making money in these markets? Everyone has been complaining about the rising price of oil and food costs. have any of you invested in these stocks?

AGU, MOS, TNH, POT.....these agriculture stocks are strong as hell. All kinds of oil plays are working. natural gas stocks too.

Stop all your complaining and do something for yourself. You don;t need a lot of money, so I don;t want to hear that. Got $500???? If you had bought 100 shares of FPP recently you could have doubled your money. Want another oil play?? MXC.... PDO...CLR.....I could go on for an hour. But last time I started naming companies or stocks I was accused of touting my book and was banned. Please don;t ban me again.

All I am saying is as bad as things are....do a little homework and make things work for you...There are 2 sides to every trade.....For every winner there is a loser..... You can't be a winner if you don;t play the game.... Research..Research...research....and you won't be a loser. Let your winners run and cut losses!!! Cliches? Yes, but oh so true.

When there is blood in the streets BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! All the panic selling has happened. I am not saying the panic has happened already I am just using another cliche to prove my point.

Do I see a market sell off happening?? I sure hope so. We can't go up until we have one. Again cycles.... You can not go back up and set new highs until old money is taken out. We have a lot of support in the 11,500 - 12,000 on the DOW ... what does that mean??? lots of supply here. If we break below certain points without demand for stock, selling will accelerate and new lows will be put in. Once we reach a bottom, expect us to stay there. You have to see accumulation of stocks taking place in order to put a new floor in. Once this floor is in place the markets will go up again.

1 think you need to know is economics 101. Supply and demand.... You might not know but that what the stock market is all about... If there is not enough supply or demand is strong prices go higher. Too much supply or not enough demand and we go lower. It really is that simple. Do you really think their is an intrinsic value for a stock??? Hell no.. When valuing a stock you look at where the price could go over time based on earnings power and dividends, or thats what they teach you in school. Know what?? It's bull crap. If people want stock in a company they are willing to buy up the stock at higher and higher prices. Expectations of performance be damned. If people are buying, I want in....that the mentality.... that's how supply and demand works here. The stock market is a game. I have learned that over time. Get good at the game and you come out ahead. When trading you learn, be early in and out even faster.

This is your lesson for the day and sorry if I went off topic, but since the OP's article is about what some idiot at RBS is saying.....lets look at RBS's track record!! Recently they are scraping the bottom of the barrel and I have been using them as sort of a "do what ever they say not to do".

For full disclosure.......still long agriculture stocks, still long some oil stocks, still short financials (but have been long and short them regularly since the Bear Sterns collapse, ran them up and ran them down < see there really is 2 sides to every market>). Long the US$ since the last week of April and currently short the Euro.



[edit on 19-6-2008 by traderonwallst]

[edit on 19-6-2008 by traderonwallst]

reply to post by leo123


I have always said...bond traders are the smartest people on the street!!!!

Not a 1 liner, but an observation I have made.

reply to post by mythatsabigprobe


Nah, it can be traced back to the establishment of the central banking systems here in the USA and earlier in Europe and England. 1913 was the year the Federal Reserve Act was passed, and WW I immediately followed, then the Great Depression, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, and a succession of serial wars since then.

It is all the well planned dismantling of the American middle class and the economic slavery of America first, then the world.

reply to post by traderonwallst


you know trader there are many stories of people like yourself throwing themselves out of windows in 1929. How sure are you???

Your buddies are rollin the dice. Would you bet your life on it??

reply to post by Leo Strauss


Damn straight I would! Rule #1...manage your risk. I am no longer an active trader on Wall Street, but still trade very actively on my own. Right now I run the Risk Management division at a major Japanese Company in Midtown, specializing in credit management and investment opportunities. I do miss the active trading and the Wall Street business, but the risk is much more minimal here and I leave all my worries at the office.

In a hypothetical global economic disaster scenario I'll tell myself....congrats for joining the military ...I'll be just fine

With all seriousness, I don't think much will happen, if anything another war breaks out then...that's when you start worrying a tad bit more.






Best Regards,


Richie

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander


Agreed!!! That's one of the biggest problems we face!! We need serious election reform NOW. The money needs to be taken out of Washington. No more lobbyists, and force candidates to take public financing. Our politicians are beholden to their special intrests, while we all die on the vine.

forgive me if this was already stated -

But when the tent cities started cropping up by the dozens in different areas in *this* country, I knew where we were headed.

My grandfather used to tell me stories about the great depression. He was a boy, living in what he called "Shanty town". He did some of his growing up wearing paper sack or gunny sack shirts and his sister wore them as dresses and skirts. He said the most humiliating thing was having his mom cut off the tops of his sister's dresses she had outgrown, and make them into a shirt for him to wear.

He said that once his dad (my great grandfather) earned some food and brought it home for everyone. It was a great deal of food too, enough for seconds for each of them. As they were about to begin their feast someone with a shot gun came and took their food from them at gun point.

Then there was many many days he said he was so hungry, his stomach just went numb.

I really, really, wish I listened to my grandpa when he told me for many years...."stock up your pantry and grow your own garden".

More doom and gloom from this community, what a suprise. Another prediction that has been made that will not come true. Not one prediction that has been made on this board has come true and neither will this one. But gop ahead, make the same prediction evey year, maybe some day you will hit it.

reply to post by traderonwallst



Okay, Trader .. but the average ATSer isn't an active Wall Street participant, but a passive 401K hopeful. That's life and a fact. And whereas $500 for you may be small potatoes to start with, $500 for me or another person -- if lost even by 25% in the markets -- could mean a month I can't pay the minimum on my CC bill, or I don't have enough to pay the power bill, etc.

Now, I do dabble in the market, and like you, have benefitted greatly from oil stocks and raw material companies. But honestly, I'm getting scared and pulling out. Nothing seems to make sense anymore. Valuations are all over the map. Commodities and oil price rise and falls defy all logic.
To me, that defines a bubble. Saw it in tech. Saw it most recently in commercial real estate. Now seeing it in corn and oil and steel and silver and aluminum and even in South American coffee, for Pete's sake! Seriously, a run up in coffee futures? When plantation yields have been at all-time highs? What the @#($*&!?!!!

This is just pure rampant speculation by the same overly-liquid hedge fund operators who killed tech, real estate and banks.

Therein lies the danger. It's not individuals like you or me making rational, solid decisions. It's a herd mentality. You said so yourself -- follow the crowd to invest, but be sure you're in early and out early.

There's that famous adage here in ATS about the individual versus the group. An individual is smart and can handle and respond to information. The group is reactive, dumb and exposed to all those dire sins we talk about. Especially greed.

That's what we're seeing in the commodities market -- puriant greed. And when those real inflation numbers finally come in by July, the market is going to get stone-cold frightened, and it's going to force the Fed into a wall it never wanted to be in -- keep rates low and fuel further inflation, or raise rates to combat inflation, but kill liquidity and let more banks fail, fear spread and a recession collapse into depression.

Originally posted by son of PC
reply to post by behindthescenes

 

I would like to call out the OP on this post. Rick Flair says " to be the man you have to beat the man". I see all those stars and flags on you post and I don't see any on mine.
In other words, I don't think much of you predictive skills, but I don't want to make this personal. I will tell you exactly what will happen in July. I hope some of you characters who can read can also remember.
Here goes. 1. the US stock market will test the 11,500 level and will seem to hold, and
2. the minimum wage will go up
That's about it. OK people, try to remember who the absolute numero uno predictor of the site is and will forever be. Take care------------------PC

First off, anyone who quotes Rick Flair -- well, no offense, but not sure how much credence I should give you there. Sounds like you're modeling his ego more than using your actual brain. And you seriously seem put off by not having any stars on your thread contribution. Wow. That's something, dude.

Secondly, I really hope you're right. And history certainly is tilting in your favor. But if we get through the summer and absolutely nothing happens -- economy just bumps along the bottom, commodities level and maybe even moderate, housing shows signs of recovery, etc. -- then I will be just as happy as you.

But to me, you're missing the point of the RBC article -- he's saying that we're going to see some very catastrophic inflation numbers finally coming to light this summer and that will send the markets into utter turmoil.

As for the minimum wage -- that won't happen until after an Obama administration comes into office. Bush may be a lot of things, but he's been pretty dead-set against raising it any. Now, with inflation, he may change his stripes and show himself (again) to not be a fiscal conservative. But, I'm betting against that.

As for the DOW, I believe we'll go sub-10,000 by the end of summer. Then and only then will I reenter the market with aplumb.

reply to post by LostNemesis




I live in Idaho and love it here plus a lot of mountains to escape to. I tell you I'm going to be stocking up on wood before winter and starting to buy extra food everytime I go to the grocery store. I'm kinda freaking out about all of this!! Feel better about being in Idaho though rather than L.A. or somewhere like that - lived there for years, would never go back.

reply to post by behindthescenes

Thanks for the reply. Predicting stuff is not so easy. Interestingly enough, I asked the Amazing Randii Foundation to test me with a random number generator, but since I'm not eligible for the million dollar prize, they refused. But that's more like psi than clairvoyance. I was going to send a copy of the letter I received from them to Noory, but he's so busy. I listen to c2c almost every night. Anyhoo Take care-----------------------------PC

This is not just going to affect the economy. It will change the fabric of humanity, spiraling us into police states, martial law, and then the Rockefellers and other NWOers will have everything they've been waiting for.

The United States will be the big loser in the coming days. All of our local, state and Federal governments are financially broke. They are looking for ways to rape the public with additional fees and taxes. We cannot afford this since food and gas is already stretching us too thin. It's a vicious cycle of too high cost of living along with more lost jobs daily putting the government in a even bigger debt hole.

Now all of our ailing companies will be taken over in whole or partly by Chinese and middle eastern countries(all against our own interests) just to keep the greedy fat cats in their mansions.

As for the elections. A leftist junior senator with too many skeletons in the closet against a liberal hot head pretending to be a conservative. Bad all the way around. Just look at the headlines today that seem to be a daily occurance. We are getting to a piont where everyone except the ultra rich are hurting and they are the only ones that can make a difference, but choose not to.

Stocks drop on financial sector woes; oil prices rebound ahead of Saudi oil meeting

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks tumbled Friday on escalating worries about the financial sector and rebounding oil prices. The major indexes fell more than 1 percent, with the Dow Jones industrials dropping more than 200 points.

Someone asked what's the straw that will break the camel's back...

My guess, and we've been speculating about this for a long time, will be if Iran is attacked.

And it doesn't even have to be by the U.S. In fact, I'd argue that if Israel goes about it alone, that should be enough to send oil shooting above $200/barrel, thoroughly crashing our economy and even more likely being enough to usher in a hot WWIII instead of this small burn we've been faced with since 9/11.

reply to post by mpriebe81


Agree. Too bad for us with safe havens already, but day jobs elsewhere,

is the timing of this all.

Wait too long and the cities will close their "borders" to the wild west countryside.

Jump the gun and leave the cities, and you job, etc and you look like a lunatic.. . esp if nothing happens.

We are all in for chaos.

Its the children who don't deserve this. All thanks to a few too many scumbag investors, scammers, politicians, and the like.