An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by Telafree

Hi Tela,

when the weather gets a bit crazy it's enough to distract just about anyone. Main thing is to stay safe.

There was a 4.3 off Oregon early on Wednesday (UTC time, Tuesday 5.27 pm local), but otherwise that region has quietened down. In spite of some predictions made on other threads and apparently now extending into January, I don't see any indications of anything major there -- certainly not in the next few days. If anyone else has anything different hopefully they'll post.

Regards,

Mike

Magnitude 6.3 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2008 December 18 21:19:31 UTC

external image
In the subduction zone.

I'm going to do some research on this.

Edit to add:

The largest earthquake ( magnitude 9.5) of the 20th century occurred on May 22, 1960 off the coast of South Central Chile. It generated one of the most destructive Pacific-wide tsunamis. Near the generating area, both the earthquake and the tsunami were extremely destructive, particularly in the coastal area extending from Concepcion to the south end of Isla Chiloe. The most extensive tsunami damage occurred at Isla Chiloe, the coastal area closest to the epicenter. Huge tsunami waves measuring as high as 25 meters, arrived within 10 to 15 minutes after the earthquake, killing at least two hundred people, sinking all the boats, and inundating half a kilometer inland. There was extensive damage and loss of life at Concepcion, Chile's top industrial city. Near the city of Valdivia, the earthquake and subsequent aftershocks generated landslides which killed 18 people. At the port city of Valparaiso, a city of 200,000, numerous buildings collapsed.

There's a lot of information on the linked website, and astonishing photographs.

www.drgeorgepc.com...

Magnitude 5.8 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2008 December 18 21:50:28 UTC

[edit on 12/18/08 by kattraxx]

there were 2 quakes in the carson city/minden area, and the thing that bothers me, is this morning, I saw that 2 hit, and were less than 8 km deep, i thought wow... that is real shallow, and there are hotsprings all over carson city......
then after Katt asked me about it, i saw that they changed the depth to 10km ...... an even more ominous depth........

carson city eq's

reply to post by kattraxx

That could be significant. Please check for any reported volcanic activity within that region, could you Kat? (Or anyone!) I would but I'm beat and it's late here.

Please also keep an eye on the Kamchatka region. I will probably post specific details tomorrow. (ie in about 12 hours from now.)

Nite all,

Mike

Originally posted by damntheptb
i saw that they changed the depth to 10km ...... an even more ominous depth........

carson city eq's

why is 10km ominous to you?

tela

edited to add: night mike, sleep well

[edit on 12/18/2008 by Telafree]

reply to post by damntheptb


Comrad "damntheptb" you seem to have a memory problem.

You state this in one sentence: "I never stated that you are not telling the truth" and in the very next sentence you state this: "I dont beleive a single word yuo say". They have medicine for bad memory.

ATS is all about debunking stuff that doesn't work, and the stuff in your thread does not work, and now your feelings are hurt damntdheptb, that's to bad.

You should not have gotten onto ATS, if your feelings were going to be hurt when someone states the truth and you personally can't stand to hear the truth.

If you read the above post I made to JustMike, then you will understand why your methods are worthless. Would you want the police to come in and tell you that you "had to leave" your home because there is going to be a terrible earthquake, and 2 out of 3 times the prediction is wrong? Then on top of that your house was looted and vandalized why you were gone.

The problem with you is that your prediction method is about 1 out of 200 million in being right, it is nowhere near 1% or 30% in correctness.

And if you really want me to leave the thread then don't say anything more to me, because like a good samaritan, I always respond to someone asking or telling me, personally, about something; hahahaha. So if you post more to me, sure I will be back to spread the truth to one and all; you methods are not scientific, and they never will be, the way you are going about it.

If you want to save lives damntheptb, then try to save your own, jump ship before you make a stupid earthquake prediction. If you are going to make earthquake predictions, then do it scientifically. Do you think pigeons and frogs exist everywhere in the world?

reply to post by JustMike


Will do, Mike. I was thinking the same thing. Very scary area, that subduction zone.

Good night.

Tsunami Warning Center

[edit on 12/18/08 by kattraxx]

MAP 6.0 2008/12/18 21:50:28 -32.484 -71.670 10.6 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 6.3 2008/12/18 21:19:31 -32.416 -71.533 35.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

These are not right on top of each other and at varying depths. Using Google Earth linked from the USGS EQ Location page, you can see these two EQ's are some distance apart.

I have a friend here from Chile, and when we had the 4.7, she told me she was a little put off seeing her husband scream and dive under a table. It was his first EQ, and they are also right on the epicenter like damntheptb and I are, so I told her not to judge him too harshly. In Chile, they don't even get out of their chair for a mere 4.7.

Edit to add: From a couple days ago.

Magnitude 4.9 - OFFSHORE COQUIMBO, CHILE
2008 December 16 22:05:26 UTC

external image

Chile EQ 1960

[edit on 12/18/08 by kattraxx]

Have you guys checked out the seismic monitor site lately?

I have not seen this before, since I began watching it, every single monitor is going off and showing activity. They had been quiet the last few days, but now all of them show something - some very large.

Have you seen this before?

I am just wondering what is going on and it seems the whole earth is quaking right now, from what the monitors show.

aslwww.cr.usgs.gov...

132AM, EST., I am having strong lower abdominal pains, lower back pains, I am nauseated and have very low tones ringing in my ears. Disoriented too. I am also having chills. Just to eliminate infection I have checked my temp and it is perfectly normal. Also my dogs have been up off the floor all day yesterday and today, they didn't want to go out today, I had to literally make them go.

reply to post by kattraxx


Hey Katt are you caught up in the snow in Nevada? Just wondering, heard on the news about the rare snow out there, it is unusually warm here, sticky hot like late summer, last week it was in the 20's here. Crazy.

That snowstorm just got me to thinking about something, I heard that this is the first snow in that area since 1979, 29 or almost 30 years ago. If you google 1979 earthquakes it was a very significant year for those, including one near Ecuador that killed 600+ people and sent a Tsunami over Hawaii, guess what day, Dec 12, 1979. check out this list of quakes from that year:

earthquake.usgs.gov...

I wish I could compare the dates and strengths/depths of all these with current activity, that would be very interesting. I saw that on April 15th 1979 there was a significant 6.9 quake in Yugoslovia, this year 2008 on that same day there was a quake of 6.6 mag in the andrean islands.

reply to post by questioningall

Yes, I've seen this sort of thing before. It's quite common when there has been a larger quake -- say over a mag. 6, but even ones in lower mags can influence equipment at great distances.

If you enlarge the images by clicking on them, you'll see that most of them showing significant traces that correspond to a time period after 21.20 hrs on Dec 18 (UTC -- all times for them are UTC). This would most likely relate to the quake in Chile (noted by Kattrax on this thread) that occurred at 21:19.29 UTC on Dec 18.

However, there have been other quakes since then that are over 5.0, and they correspond quite well with later "large" traces on many of the images.

Mike

Referring back to my short post from yesterday about the Kamchatka region, I'd like to now post a prediction. I am expecting a quake in this region of at least a magnitude 5.0 but more likely in the 6.0 range, with a time window within the next three days. The most likely region is actually in the Nth Kuril Islands, in the circle I've added to the map below, at approx 153E, 47N, but I have to state that historically, the fault region NE of here within the Kamchatka region itself is known to be unstable and could be affected.

Anyway here's the map:



(Image from USGS. Reproduced for informational and educational purposes.]

Mike

[edit on 19/12/08 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


Here's a link to the map, so we can keep an eye on it. It will show eventual new quakes.

USGS: 10-degree Map Centered at 50°N,150°E

reply to post by Hellmutt

Hello Hellmutt and thank you for posting that link. Having posted the USGS map image I should have included that link myself... I must be getting slow in my old age or something.

Anyway we will see if anything pops up there in the next few days. Historically, this is quite a seismically-active region so anything under a mag 5.0 would be quite unremarkable. On the other hand, anything at around a mag 6.0 or higher I'd take as fairly significant. The USGS statistic for mag 6-range quakes worldwide is around 134 per annum, meaning about one every three days. But that's for the whole world. The odds of a mag six in this particular region would obviously be much less.

I checked the latest stats on NEIC here and world-wide, there were 180 quakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater in the period from Dec 18 2007 to Dec 17 2008. Of that number, 167 were between mag 6.0 and 6.9. So for the past year we are over the average.

Checking the data for all quakes of mag 6.0 or greater within a 500 km radius of a circle centered at 47N, 153 E (my map region), there has been only one in the one-year time frame stated above, namely a magnitude 6.5 at 46.41N 153.18E, on 3/3/2008. The relevant data page from NEIC is here. Extending the radius to 1000 km increases the number of quakes to five in the past 12 months, which is still not a huge number by any means. Even within 1,000 km of the stated target zone, the odds of a mag 6.0 or bigger within the next three days or so are not great -- not more than maybe 2% on the most recent 12 months' data.

I knew before I posted that the odds were low but still felt it worth making the post. So, we will see.

To do your own search for quakes or quake frequency, you can NEIC's search facility on this page.


[edit on 19/12/08 by JustMike]

Updating offshore Chile situation:

MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.0 2008/12/19 16:48:52 -32.538 -71.734 35.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.1 2008/12/19 13:57:31 -32.513 -71.600 29.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.5 2008/12/19 09:36:06 -32.445 -71.709 27.5 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.2 2008/12/19 07:30:10 -32.508 -71.737 33.2 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 6.0 2008/12/18 21:50:28 -32.484 -71.670 10.6 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 6.2 2008/12/18 21:19:29 -32.421 -71.561 19.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

For the sake of discussion, regarding the web bot forecast, I think Chile fits the descriptors best. I'm just saying.... if something were to happen, this subduction fault offshore Chile, is capable of it.

Adding the map of the triple junction of tectonic plates that lies offshore Chile.

external image

[edit on 12/19/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by space cadet


Hi Space Cadet, you must be thinking of Las Vegas. Up here in Reno, it's the high desert, on the dry side of the Sierras. I live in the foothills above Reno at 5500 feet. We get snow every winter, but the winds this time are horrendous. The roaring of the winds last night actually woke me up; sounded like a freight train all night long. So far, I guess we have about 6 inches of snow, with more coming.

Shasta Swarm:


M 2.4, Northern California

Date:
Friday, December 19, 2008 17:46:18 UTC
Friday, December 19, 2008 09:46:18 AM at epicenter
Depth:
5.00 km (3.11 mi)

M 2.2, Mount Shasta area, California

Date:
Friday, December 19, 2008 17:47:25 UTC
Friday, December 19, 2008 09:47:25 AM at epicenter
Depth:
1.30 km (0.81 mi)

M 2.2, Northern California

Date:
Friday, December 19, 2008 18:13:27 UTC
Friday, December 19, 2008 10:13:27 AM at epicenter
Depth:
9.30 km (5.78 mi)

Details from USGS web site

reply to post by Hellmutt


Welcome to the thread, QuestioningAll and Hellmutt. I was just about to pop onto your Sweden EQ thread, Hellmutt, to see what's new. I see USGS has now lowered the magnitude again, down to 4.3. And no aftershocks either. Our EQ here in Reno went the same way, first 5.3, then 5.0, 4.9 and finally 4.7.

[edit on 12/19/08 by kattraxx]