An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Magnitude 4.7 - CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
2008 December 13 17:21:14 UTC
4.7
Date-Time Saturday, December 13, 2008 at 17:21:14 UTC
Saturday, December 13, 2008 at 02:21:14 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 8.071°N, 37.910°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
Distances 1290 km (800 miles) NNE of Parnaiba, Piaui, Brazil
1365 km (850 miles) NNE of Sao Luis, Maranhao, Brazil
1575 km (980 miles) NE of Belem, Para, Brazil
2850 km (1770 miles) NNE of BRASILIA, Distrito Federal, Brazil


A bit scary, that.

I was checking Google Earth from the USGS Details page and found these EQ's north of Ascension Island, which is a volcano, incidentally, along the mid-Atlantic ridge, for this year.

6.5 4/24
6.5 5/23
6.3 8/28
6.3 11/22


[edit on 12/13/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


Magnitude 4.9 - OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2008 December 13 07:20:50 UTC

Magnitude 4.7 - KYUSHU, JAPAN
2008 December 13 12:32:45 UTC

reply to post by pynner


Trona EQ this morning.

external image

Wave form for Trona EQ

external image

Hello everyone,

First I have to say thanks to everyone you are all doing a great job with all this. Katt, thanks for posting for me.

I just finished catching up with the thread.

In all rights I probably shouldn't continue to write this but we are friends and maybe I need to share with it even making me look bad.

The night before last in sleep I was disrupted by a flash in my third eye. It's hard to explain but what I got was P-WAVE. I woke and thought what is a P-WAVE and is there such a thing as a P-WAVE I never heard of such a thing. I was actually going to get up and had to fight the urge to see if there is such a things but I didn't want to wake anyone it was a school night. I thought I'll check it first thing in the morning to see if there is such a thing and expected to find nothing to be honest. I went back to sleep then I had another flash.

I could instantly see the Country was South America and I could clearly see the location Brazil at the sticking out hump part on the right side of the map. As I looked at the map in this flash I was shocked at what I was looking at. It was two very hugh red circles, I mean hugh. On a scale of 1 to 10 they were 12 and 11.....I know what you are thinking.... impossible.

I don't know exactly where the quake in the circle would have been generated from but I can tell you the red circle covered a section of land inland on that hump and I would say 9/10th of the circle was in the water, it was hugh. On the other side of the red circle (in the water) the second red circle overlapped slightly the first one. the second circle was also hugh and goes even further out into the waters. The best word I have to describe what I felt was, "DREAD"

I woke and looked at my clock it was 3:39 a.m. E.S.T. (Friday morning) not that this time has anything to do with anything.

Of course I had lots of things scheduled Friday and I couldn't do as much as I wanted to check things out and Katt has just gone over and beyond for me. The rest of you guys are also great for the work you do to help us also.

At this time I am not feeling or sensing anything.

I have looked into P-WAVE and to be honest I was shocked there was something on it. I don't understand all that Scientific stuff but what I get is the P-WAVE is kinda like a warning system. Actually as I am sitting here it will be the P-WAVE that is going to be the warning but who is/would know this and be able to do anything about it. Also, """""just because I had flashes of this doesn't mean anything really."""""

Also the hugh red circles showing the two hugh quakes, if this is something that is going to happen all I can say is, OMG. Just thinking about it makes my heart sink and I feel total dread.

I also asked Katt about seeing if she could check what was the opposite of this location on the map and she sent me a Map that Mike uses. It seems when I finnally was able to get a general it appears it is nowhere other then in the middle of the waters above New Guinea. (NOTHING)

I checked maps Katt sent to me and quess what there is nothing in that area such as fault lines.

So it seems that the years I have looked at the IRIS map I haven't once seem quakes listed in the location off Brazil and I see no fault lines anywhere near these waters opposite in New Guinea. No connection can I make anywhere.

At this time I can not make any connections anywhere on this so I don't understand the flashes or the timing. (this is what I am telling myself right now)

I know with nothing happening in this location it makes me look very bad and maybe I shouldn't have written anything but within myself I feel it is better to share and be wrong then not to share at all.

Now that I have written this down I think we need to focus on where the action is not where the action isn't.... and all I can say now is I appreciate all your work.

Originally posted by space cadet
...has anyone noticed that a lot of the quakes in the last couple of weeks are sitting at a depth of 6.2 miles? I found that unusual, the depths are not usually that close to each other unless the quakes are close, like afterschocks that are at the same depth. Click around on USGS and check out the matching depths. 6.2 is the most noticable. [edit on 13-12-2008 by space cadet]

Hi Space Cadet, good to see you! Those quakes at 6.2 miles... That's 10 kilometres, which is the "default depth" that USGS is fond of using and has used even for quakes that were reliably reported by other (more local) sources to not be at a depth of 10 km.

However, it's worth noting that certainly in respect of the quakes in Cal and the PNW, more and more of them lately are not being reported at this default depth like they used to be. And, the USGS is now supplying more data for more of them -- including waveforms.

reply to post by kattraxx


Magnitude 4.0 - OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
2008 December 13 19:28:21 UTC

reply to post by observe50

Hi Observe,

hey, there's no need to feel bad -- this is an experimental process and we are looking at all sorts of methods. If a method brings any kind of results then it's worth following up on it, and if it doesn't then there's no harm done. And in fact, there was a mag 4.7 quake on the mid-Atlantic ridge off from Brazil today, in the general area you were talking about. True, this is much lower than what you saw in the flash vision that troubled you so much, but in the spot where the quake occurred they only expect around one mag 5 quake per year. From that data I'd say a mag 4.7 might occur 3 or 4 times a year, so to have one pop up the day after your info was posted is pretty significant.

Here's a map that shows the earthquake density for that area:



(Image from USGS. Reproduced for informational and educational purposes.)

If nothing else, your prediction suggests it's worth keeping an eye on that area. One smaller quake doesn't mean that's the end of the story by any means.

Best regards,

Mike

Edited to add credit and legal statement for image.

[edit on 13/12/08 by JustMike]

Yeah, Observe, don't beat yourself up. I was just looking at the first coordinates you gave me (I wrote them down) and comparing them to this EQ...

You said: 7N 37W
This EQ's coordinates: 8N 37W

external image

Timelines are the most difficult thing to pin down. But don't stop trying.

More off Petrolia...

Magnitude 2.8 - OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2008 December 13 22:14:48 UTC
2.8
Date-Time Saturday, December 13, 2008 at 22:14:48 UTC
Saturday, December 13, 2008 at 02:14:48 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 40.357°N, 124.520°W
Depth 22.7 km (14.1 miles)
Region OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances 20 km (13 miles) W (280°) from Petrolia, CA

reply to post by kattraxx

That area's been quite busy lately, hasn't it? I think that's the fourth or fifth quake there since I posted about this location a few days back. I'd be interested in what other members might think.



(Image from USGS, posted for informational and educational purposes.)

reply to post by JustMike


Hi JustMike, this is the exact area I've been watching carefully and worrying about. Just a gut feeling, nothing more.

Hey all, it's 121am here in North Ga, I am getting pressure in my head again, this morning (SAT morn) when I got off I felt really bad, the pressure was tremendous, after sleep it had eased, I haven't checked yet but I am guessing North and South Cali had some sizeable activty today. I started again getting pressure in my head and ears around 12:30 EST, no other syptoms or pains at this time, I will report it if anything changes overnight with me. It is the 14th officially, I hope this day unfolds with no incident. Also this morning ( SAT morning) there were a lot of 'earthquake clouds' in the sky.

reply to post by space cadet


ok, it is almost 220am now (early Sun morn) and the tone just changed in my ears, it is low and loud now, and I now have a headache in the back of my head. Pressure is building again like it was last night in my ears and head.

edit to add: it is now 3:15 am, and I have a full on headache, front and top of my head, and my vision is very blurry.

[edit on 14-12-2008 by space cadet]

Hmmm... New Baja California (Mexico) quake:



The map is interesting:



(Both images from USGS. Reproduced for informational and educational purposes.)

You could almost draw a line across the peninsula there...

(Edited to add credit and legals for images.)

[edit on 14/12/08 by JustMike]

It is now 632am EST, I am nauseated, my head is a little better but I still have pressure, vision still blurred, I feel out of sorts again, I am going to go out on a limb here and say that something will take place today, Sunday the 14th, at least between 4.5 to a 5 in Cali today.

reply to post by mountaindog

Let's hope there's nothing too much to worry about for now, at least. It was bothersome to me, which is one reason I posted about it the other day, just before it became more active. Like I might have said already (can't remember!), better to have lots of little quakes than one bigger one.

Mike

reply to post by space cadet

I'm keeping a close eye on the maps, Space Cadet. (I think several of us are, actually.) Thanks for posting your impressions. We'll just have to see what happens.

Mike

external image

Also little "trails" of EQ's at Mammoth Lakes.

Mammoth Lakes I think I read awhile back that ground temps there were hot and trees caught fire I think on the upper side (Northside) something like that.

I'm still not feeling anything.

I shouldn't do this because I'm not sure at all about this and it could really be anything. I'm going to give a time if anything huge happens at 1:37 I will even guess a.m. actually now that I think about it... it would be a.m. because I remember thinking at time 2 hr and 2 min. before I looked at the clock which read 3:39 a.m. don't know what zone time it's just a number I kinda, sorta got. Take it with a grain of salt because nothing is really happening major where I was talking about.

In my last post I had typo errors to correct, I can't edit now so please excuse the mistakes.

I see the new quake in Cal.

I am having a major problem with the computer it is shutting down none stop, I am at a time right now where it is working but for how long I don't know.

edited post because the last post just came up and I didn't want to stutter.

[edit on 14-12-2008 by observe50]