An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by JustMike


I was just saying this to damntheptb in an email-- in a seismically active region, I will only log hits over 4.0 - 4.5. We are still learning, but even given that, some areas are so active, the EQ's are not worth mentioning unless of a greater magnitude.

Edit to add: On the other hand, as Charlotte says, even if the mag isn't huge, you will still get the precursor symptoms.

[edit on 6/3/08 by kattraxx]

You guys may know this already, but Char just called to check in, and she said her ATS interview will be on tomorrow night.

I've been looking forward to that.

reply to post by kattraxx

Yeah, that makes good sense. The USGS estimates for quakes world wide shows that ones between 3.0 and 3.9 are ten times more likely than those of 4.0 to 4.9.

The list of estimates can be found here

Speaking of predictions I'd like to re-affirm that what I said about a likely quake in southern California, from the region of San Diego across east to around Calexico, still holds. My own feeling is that this area is more likely for upcoming significant activity than L.A. or 'Frisco.

Justmike, that area has been producing quakes pretty much once an hour it seems. Or at least it WAS i should say. its definitely the hotspot for the day.

I'm SOOO excited that Charlotte's interview is coming up! I can't wait to hear what she says!

Tela

reply to post by Telafree

Hmmm...I just had a look and there are some there up around mag. 3.0 and lots of little ones...but they tend to get days like that down there I guess... However I'd be expecting something that people would actually notice a bit more... I mean, I am expecting...

Edit: Could someone please check back on quakes records and see how active it was there around May 28 and since then? Has it become more active? Thanks

Night all...Gone midnight here....Catch you zitra.



[edit on 3-6-2008 by JustMike]

Have a great night!

:waves:

I'm just about outta here myself.

Tela

A thread has started saying that the China quake/ Nuclear Explosion. Now if this is so did they (Chinese) screw up or was there a quake that caused this explosion. This just throws something new into the mix.

So far I think I am going with not just one thing but a few different things creating one bigger thing.

I tink me just gave meself a headache

A QUESTION TO ALL WHO VIEW THIS

Does anyone know where i can find archived EQ results? most sites I found only go back a week, and i have emailed many webmasters of these sites, but have gotten no answers.

Id like to get a printout of ALL the reno/verdi quakes, or at least be able to go back to areas that had a large 5.6 or above, and see the history on it.

Not sure this is what you are looking for but if you go to the list with the quakes listed you will see on the left side in the Gray area at the top...... "index map of CA/NV" hit on that and when the map comes up scroll just below it you will see Southern Cal........Northern Cal so on if you hit those it will give you previous dates of larger quakes.

reply to post by observe50


Observe, can you give us a link to the page? I'm not finding it... thanks.

Edit: Okay, I found what you mean-- damntheptb is looking for an archive of past EQ's going back months, not just seven days and for the Reno area.



[edit on 6/3/08 by kattraxx]

I know how to post some links but I don't know how this one was done.

damntheptb go to page 5 and your first post use the second link.

Look on the Gray area left side where it says index map cal./nv......click, when the map comes up scroll just under it if you hit those I know earlier quakes of larger mag. are posted.

Sorry best I know how to explain and this might not be what you are looking for.

Originally posted by damntheptb
Does anyone know where i can find archived EQ results?

Id like to get a printout of ALL the reno/verdi quakes, or at least be able to go back to areas that had a large 5.6 or above, and see the history on it.

Hi,

what you are looking for is "historical earthquake data". At least, that's the way I searched for it on good old Google. For your purposes it's best to use a data base that has an "advanced search" capability, which allows you to specify time span, magnitude, and latitude/longitude ranges, so I think the Nevada Science Laboratory Earthquake Catalog would be ideal.

Having found this, now I need to do some digging myself...

Edit... Hey, that database even lets you search for quakes in a time frame up to 12/31/2100

For the Southern California searchable data base, go here.

To search the data base for earthquakes anywhere in the world, go here.


[edit on 4-6-2008 by JustMike]

reply to post by observe50

Well it was certainly an unusual quake, because no precursor tremors were reported. I checked the database for that region (within a 100 km radius of the big quake's epicenter), for the period April 12 -- ie one month before the quake -- to May 13 (being the day after). There are no quakes listed for that area prior to the big one on May 12.

The big China quake's data can be accessed here at USGS and the database report with the above parameters can be accessed here.< br />
However, as we may recall, there were reports of a mass swarming of toads in the days prior to the quake, and also of a pond (a pretty big pond) whose water level dropped very dramatically some days before the quake.

All in all it's rather mysterious.

(Edited for typos.)

[edit on 4-6-2008 by JustMike]

New Mexico EQ 3.7

You don't see that every day. At least, I haven't.

Most noticeable today are the Sierra/Wasatch precursor symptoms (as outlined in Charlotte's pamphlet & used here w/her permission). So instead of listing precursors, I'll just indicate regions in the order of intensity, so to speak. Sorting them out today is a little confusing again...

Sierras
Wasatch
Japan
Indonesia
Kurils

Edit to add: Central California and move Japan up a spot.

All these are generally 1-3 days from now, but it seems for me, personally, they've been hitting closer to my precursors, so maybe within 48 hours.


[edit on 6/4/08 by kattraxx]

Good morning, and thanks to everyone with the links for archived data..... It is exactly what I wanted... i dont know what to try to find, but now I have the tools to start..

Its wed. the 4th of june, and I cannot seem to wake up today, I have no energy, just completely drained, and my wife and daughter were the same way....im on my second cup of java, and no luck so far... Im not sure, but i think its related to volcanic activity....
My ears have felt like they were going to pop all night and this morning, so im watching for so-cal, king city area...

I believe I'm getting Japan or China a lot this morning; they're very similar, so I'm still trying to figure out which is more obvious. Japan is more of an intuition.

Wyoming (Wasatch) 3.1

Edit to add: Alaska...

And now, USGS has deleted this Wyoming EQ. ???

Anyone live up that way who could tell us whether or not there was an earthquake in your area?



[edit on 6/4/08 by kattraxx]

Fox reported a few hours back (only once) that Northern Cal. had a 3.9

What I found was 3.9 10 km. NE of American Canyon, Cal. June 4 2:29:04 UTC Lat.- 38.240 Lon- -122.180 event ID- 51203773

reply to post by observe50



NoCal EQ

Originally posted by kattraxx
Wyoming (Wasatch) 3.1

And now, USGS has deleted this Wyoming EQ. ???

Anyone live up that way who could tell us whether or not there was an earthquake in your area?

Well no, I don't live up that way but I also noticed that Wyoming quake. It was a low-range mag. 3 as I recall. And yes, it vanished. I know it was still on the US map at just after 6 pm my time (16OO hrs UTC), and fortunately I was able to click back through my browser and found the map with it still in place. Time stamp on the map is 16:02:15 UTC. So I saved a screen shot of it...

Sorry but I still can't figure how to post images so I've just emailed you a copy of the screen shot in case you wish to post it. IMHO this should be posted because something weird is going on here. Why did they delete it?

Edit to add: Extrapolating the coordinates from the screen shot, the location of that quake was approx 41.3 N and 108.5 W.


[edit on 4-6-2008 by JustMike]