An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

I was looking around trying to find anything about underwater volcanoes and I found some interesting things like:

Nov.9 06 A yacht crew a day out sailing from TONGA to the FIJI Islands noted an underwater volcano was giving birth to a new Island.

Look at the area of these quakes .

Japanese Scientist discover hugh undersea lava Plateau located "mid-ridge Indian Ocean" also found hydrothermal eruptions on N. Plateau they say volcanically active. The Plateau is 8.8 mi. by 1.7 at a depth of 8,860 ft. Plateau covered with Lava 980 thick

They say not Global Warming it's Ocean warming from the Volcanoes.

Look at the locations we need to keep an eye on the ocean/sea creatures. They are saying they thought there were only 10,000 underwater volcanoes but they are now saying they were wrong and it is more like 3 million.

A new study raised the possibility that new crust may be forming along faults.

Mother Earth is birthing??? OMG I was a _itch when I gave birth.

Many species of "beings" are in the deepest of our waters so I wonder what the he&& is going on, is this the Wizard of OZ thingy.

edit to add: I know this is nothing new but if she has like multiple birthing one right after the other we could be in for a ride.

[edit on 2-6-2008 by observe50]

I am really starting to worry about the 9.5 on that fault in China snapping because of all the movement on the main ring of fire yesterday. If that happened then all the dams would give way in China that they are now having trouble with. Fung shui has predicted the flooding events for the next three months. The same area in China that recently had the big quake.

reply to post by JustMike

It is slightly east of the previous one, placing it very close to or on the Blanco Fracture Zone. This is getting closer to the magnitude range I was expecting (over 4.5 anyway), and it's in a place that is not the best to see...and that worries me.

JustMike, would you explain more in detail why this is so worrying? Thanks.

I wonder if the quakes off the coast of oregon that don't seem to be on any fault lines are one of those new volcanos and it just hasn't opened up a fissure in the crust yet for geysers/lava/bubbles, visual clues that signal a new volcano underwater. Perhaps the swarm is a precursor to that. It would at least explain the swarm.

I wonder if the usgs folks that went out to the oregon swarm quake area found anything. THey never really reported anything of value that I remember so that leaves one wanting to know answers about both the REno swarm and the oregon swarm. Thats two separate swarms that the USGS is completely puzzled over. I sometimes wish I could se the future because I'd s ure like to know whats going on.

Tela

SoCal 3.0

So Cal still shaking.

reply to post by kattraxx

Hi Kat,

yes it's worrying because that specific region very rarely sees much activity at all. There has been quite a lot further north, including undersea "swarms" up towards northern Oregon. But the 4.7 was right on the Blanco fracture zone, near where it intersects with the Juan de Fuca ridge, and the 4.0 was darned close to it. What concerns me is that these quakes could indicate that the Juan de Fuca plate may be ready to move further SE, meaning more of it going into the subduction zone along the Cascadia fault (which sits just off the coast along there).

I must re-learn how to load images here but meanwhile, if we take a look at the image of the region's faults on this link:

www.colorado.edu...

then we get a better idea of how complex things are under the sea there.

Basically, anything unusual in terms of seismic activity is cause for some concern at the present time, and as I see it, these two quakes were unusual and so I'm concerned about them. It's also worrying because it might be related to the quake swarm that occurred about six weeks ago in the middle of the plate. At the time, a marine geologist from Oregon State University commented that "Some process going on down there is sustaining a high stress rate in the crust". Scientists stated this swarm was "unusual" and (in relation to other swarms they had studied) "puzzling".

A report of this particular swarm can be found here:

www.sciencedaily.com...

I find it worrisome when scientists talk of "high stress rates" due to "some process", meaning they don't know what it is, or what it may lead to...

After reading some things I think one thing we are dealing with might be these underwater/sea volcanoes.

We also could be dealing with seperate issues here. Like when you go to the Dr's and you give the symptons and they all don't relate to one illness but instead a couple different things going on with you.

I feel it might be the same here a couple different things in some ways connecting, what are your thoughts?

If Earth isn't birthing deep down I don't know what it could be.

It is most likely nothing, however i will post it for the record.



Last night i had another event happen during my dream state. I was on a shore line. there was sand all over the place, the beach was empty it was sunset. it started getting darker, faster. My feet started to get wet at an alarming rate. I panicked and ran further inland, but the water behind me rose faster and faster, the water was now knee deep and surging past me. i decided to look behind me and see what was causing all of this to happen. I was surprised to find out, no big waves, or killer storms were following behind me. The water seemed normal. the moon then caught my eye. I wasn't quite sure what about it was different, but it was, almost entrancing, I had an eriee and awful vib being sensed from it. After pulling my glance away from the moon, i noticed i was no longer standing in the water; now i was on shore, continuing to watch the water level rise. . . starting at my feet i felt a little tingle, movement, then up my legs all the way to my head and beyond it was felt. . . Harder and harder the vibration was felt all throughout my body. . . Things however did not fall here, just waved. i looked behind me to see what else i could observe about my surrounding area. . . I was back in the office building stairways again. . . Violently shaking at this point.


I wake up to almost falling out of my bed, i right leg and right arm saved me from the fall

I think it's good to write all this if nothing else we can keep everything in mind.

I woke at 2:30 this morning and was surprised the birds near me weren't chirping like they usually do. I listened and could hear a little chirp in the distance however.

What concerned me was I felt fear, I grabbed my cell phone which I keep on the table next to my bed and I hooked it to me jammies just in case I would be needing it for whatever reason.. About 3:30 this fear just disappeared and I took the phone off my jammies and went to sleep.

Weird.



[edit on 3-6-2008 by observe50]

reply to post by observe50


Same here, Observe. I wake up every two hours, no matter what. I hiked for 2 hours yesterday, but it made no difference. And when I wake, I'm never sure if it was a tremor that woke me or not... so I feel uneasy and wait a bit to see if there's a next one, as has been the previous behavior of this Reno swarm. Just don't feel "right"; out of sorts. I usually sleep like a baby (wake up screaming every two hours, haha).

I have really been thinking about all this and I could understand if undersea volcanoes are starting to act up but what I can't understand is the land quakes so far inland that are swarming or like China.

I wonder is there a possibility that there could be a super volcano underwater we don't know about or are the many volcanoes down there connected and this being much bigger then anyone could imagine.

Why aren't the seismologist saying anything about the continueing swarms or what they found in there test they were supposed to do?

Originally posted by observe50

Why aren't the seismologist saying anything about the continueing swarms or what they found in there test they were supposed to do?

THATS what I want to know!!!!!

They are being so quiet that that fact alone is making me nervous.

Symptoms for me today, lower back pains, headache more towards the left eye then the right eye, and thats about it. A little vertigo.

Tela

Hi everyone,

I've decided to claim hits for both the Oregon 4.7 mag. quake on June 2, and the 4.1 mag quake in Alaska on the same day. Details are in this post on the results thread.

Unless something happens within the next few hours my prediction for a quake in Southern Africa is a negative. It's pretty well moving out of the time window now. (But as I said at the time I posted I wouldn't mind if this turned out to be the case.)

Something I'd like to ask you all... I tend to post predictions with a time window, fairly precise location and also an estimate of magnitude. I do this because I usually have a feel for all of these factors. (In fact if I don't post a time window I normally expect the event within around three days anyway.) However, though I was right with the Japan quakes as to location (especially the first and most powerful one, now upgraded by USGS to a 5.8) I neglected to mention magnitude...and with the Oregon and Alaska quakes I was right on time frame and location but a bit off with magnitude. So the question is:

How precise does a prediction made by any of us have to be, before it can be regarded as a "hit"?

Only fair to give you my take...While we don't seem to have any hard-set criteria established I have no problem with that, because I see it as a matter of considering various factors. For example Alaska is very active anyway, so if I'd just said "Alaska will have a quake soon", it's pretty much a given if the "soon" is not quantified and neither is the location. In this case, because Alaska is a huge region, where within that region is important, along with a reasonable time frame. Ditto with any region that is known to be seismically very active. However, if it is a region that is not so active then perhaps being more general is perfectly okay. The Mediterranean is a good example. Yes, it gets some quakes but not on a daily basis. Compared to Alaska or the Indonesian region, they are actually quite rare. This would allow for a wider region to be stated; not sure about the time window because my own tendency is to pick up on things within around three days of when they occur. But I'm not everyone so I'd be glad to know how you see this aspect of prediction.

So anyway that's how I see it, but on the other hand I'm wondering if being too specific could have negative effects.

Originally posted by observe50
Why aren't the seismologist saying anything about the continueing swarms or what they found in there test they were supposed to do?

That is the magic question everyone wants to know!!! There has been barely a mention of the quakes over the last weeks, cept for the 3.2 sat night, that got a 1 line mention in an article titles, EQ swarms diminishing....

then today they posted this article about the geothermal plant geothermal plant NOT responsible

another good site I found is here global earthquake list
I've been paying attention to the depth on a lot of bigger quakes... there are depths of over 300 km deep.... waaaaay deep.....

Originally posted by JustMike
How precise does a prediction made by any of us have to be, before it can be regarded as a "hit"?

I would say anything farely close in the aspect of time or magnitude, and the central area on locations, but all this depends a lot on if an area if frequented by numerous quakes a week, anyone can say i think one will hit this week, but on the otherhand, you were right on on the previous ones, Because this is an experiment, all data is good, we can always filter out results later that are deemed to "vauge", but for now, list all we can, and Its almost spooky how close you were on these....

So anyway that's how I see it, but on the other hand I'm wondering if being too specific could have negative effects.

Yes, it definitly can, but if you or anyone are feeling or seeing specifics, go ahead and list them... there is going to be a definite probability of error, and since this is "un-proven" science, I dont feel that we should limit any data or information..

any thoughts? I'd like to hear anyone elses opinion, since this is a public forum....


[edit on 3-6-2008 by damntheptb]

I say keep listing them. I think anything should be listed. Does that make sense?

I think if we go too specific we will run into problems. Unforseen, but problems none the less.

Tela

I don't feel we should limit it either, Like observer mentioned before, We are being left alone in this thread, without all the "Nay-say'ers" throwing us fodder to dodge. Maybe later down the road, after we are able to to get a better feel for our symptoms. But currently, I freedom of voice given to us by each other in this thread is invaluable in my honest opinion. We are able to freely discuss and talk about the things we are feeling/have heightened sense to, in hopes of finding out some answers, from which we have been lacking. . . as we all know "Mr. Government man" Has done nothing but turn a deaf ear to the many of voices calling out for answers. Sometimes we have to do it on our own, Which we have done here, with great success i believe.


Edit to add:


I also feel that if specifics can be given, then even better. Since i have been following this thread, as a general rule, i have been given the predictions 5-7 days in order to fulfilled. With most of them being right on the money. Just because our body's register it or our minds beforehand, sometimes days., Does not mean our mother earth is ready for it to be felt by the mass's.

[edit on 3-6-2008 by Hakii]

Originally posted by Hakii
.....as we all know "Mr. Government man" Has done nothing but turn a deaf ear to the many of voices calling out for answers. Sometimes we have to do it on our own, Which we have done here, with great success i believe.

I agree, and that is my point, we ARE making progress, its just not measurable at this point... but We are all moving in a good direction, and the answers are out there..we just have to figure them out, especially since we are getting no help from "experts"

I just dont like the lack of mention of anything regarding quakes in the recent weeks, even though they have not let up in this area...

here is a cool link i found that will show you where on the world you would be if you drilled straight thru the earth and came out on the other side.... I am starting to check diferent locations of quakes, and see if I can see any patterns..

www.antipodemap.com...

Originally posted by Telafree
I wonder if the quakes off the coast of oregon that don't seem to be on any fault lines are one of those new volcanos and it just hasn't opened up a fissure in the crust yet for geysers/lava/bubbles, visual clues that signal a new volcano underwater. Perhaps the swarm is a precursor to that. It would at least explain the swarm.

If you mean the swarm of quakes that occurred near the middle of the Juan de Fuca plate, then what you suggest is (in my non-expert opinion) quite feasible. The scary thing is, this plate is under enough stress already. Having a new volcano appear in the middle of it would perhaps cause even more faults to appear there and some things would then likely start moving quite dramatically.

I wonder if the usgs folks that went out to the oregon swarm quake area found anything. THey never really reported anything of value that I remember so that leaves one wanting to know answers about both the REno swarm and the oregon swarm. Thats two separate swarms that the USGS is completely puzzled over. I sometimes wish I could se the future because I'd s ure like to know whats going on.
Tela

About the only thing they reported, as far as I know, was exactly as you say: namely that that they were "puzzled". I'm sure we'd all like to know a bit more. It doesn't have to mean they are deliberately holding something back though; it could be that from their academic perspective, they are simply not able to make any definitive statement. It would be good if data about this was more readily available, though.

Great comments from everyone on my little "question". I think we're all pretty much on the same page

Yes, on balance I'd have to agree that it's far better to post things that might be in error or even a little off-target than leave them out. It's also likely that we will see some members who are able to predict more accurately as to time or location and others who are pretty good with magnitudes. And if something very "major" is coming, there should be a lot of information coming in and getting posted.

Now, according to "conventional" science we might collectively fluke a couple of predictions but nothing more; if we can go some way towards changing that perspective it has to be beneficial. So anything we can achieve is positive. Some predictions will not come to pass, but we can still learn from them.

Even modern meteorologists with all of their equipment, their satellites, weather stations, balloons, ground observers, high-powered computers and world-wide sharing of data -- even they do not get the weather forecasts right all the time. They say this is because small changes in one place can create larger, unforseeable changes elsewhere. Well, that's fair enough, but (in my opinion) world-wide seismic activity functions very similarly to the weather. So why should we (not only here but in other places), who are working with nothing more than a little data and pooled knowledge and experience, somehow be expected to do better?

Well...if we can learn enough, if we can see beyond the statistics and the maps, the plates and the fault lines -- and really see the bigger picture, then maybe there will come a time when we will!