Global War: Trend, Accident, or Conspiracy?

reply to post by sweatmonicaIdo


I have no doubt that we are entering a period of growing instability. Every region in the world suffers from instability or borders on a region that suffers from as much . The failure to deploy sufficient forces in Afghanistan or Iraq to deal with the security situation , climate change regardless of cause and food shortages will all contribute to global instability. IMO to create a creditable story set around events in the near to medium future you need to make the background events and characters realistic.

Global instability certainly provides the backdrop for your story and I haven't seen any comments or had the thought that the characters you have wrote about have been portrayed in an unrealistic manner . If you keep revising your story to keep up with current events you will be struck in a never ending loop of revisions and you will fail to finish the story .

I am interested to see what Justin has to say about this .

Originally posted by xpert11
Global instability certainly provides the backdrop for your story and I haven't seen any comments or had the thought that the characters you have wrote about have been portrayed in an unrealistic manner . If you keep revising your story to keep up with current events you will be struck in a never ending loop of revisions and you will fail to finish the story .

Thanks and I don't think my story has been necessarily portrayed in an unrealistic manner either. I just think that the likelihood that A), China would challenge us so openly, regardless of what advantageous position they are in, is an incredibly risky move on their part (Russia seems more like to do such a thing), and B), I still have yet to see any indication the U.S. government or any of the presidential candidates are serious about dealing with Iran.

I believe we will eventually engage in armed conflict with China, but I think its either going to be at least another decade down the future or its going to come out of nowhere, will be short and violent.

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
I believe we will eventually engage in armed conflict with China, but I think its either going to be at least another decade down the future or its going to come out of nowhere, will be short and violent.

I agree that a future conflict is at least a decade a way. I don't see how we avoid it. As our power declines we should expect the Chinese to assert their growing power.

Note the following operates on the assumption of open warfare between the US and China rather then a series of proxy wars .


It would be foolhardy for the US to get involved with a war with China now and particularly in the future . In ten years time the US military should be geared towards fighting counter insurgency wars and not convental battles . Even if somehow Nukes were taken out of the picture China has the industrial capacity to replace its losses like the US once did . Also unless China invades Taiwan or does something insane like making a land grab to the south no other government is going to want anything to do with a war with China .

[edit on 16-10-2008 by xpert11]

Operating on the assumption that we de-escalate from Iraq and Afghanistan over he next fouryears, it's likely tha the american military will actually shrink in size. It's being projected that the 2010 total armed services budget may be five percent less than it is today. In this scenario, its unlikely that the U.S. would have enough ground forces to fight with anyone for any extended period.

Under these conditons, china may choose to excersize its options. As the economic and social situation in their part of the world continues to unravel, they might opt for military intervenetnion...somewhere. It's unlikely that we would be willing or able to stop them. Our ability to rally world opinion and build armed coalitions has been compromised.

The effect of the recession on the military is a core component of my futurology. The U.S. Army's Grow the Army is increasing the manpower of the military, but there will likely be cuts in the form of reductions in the acquisition of systems, benefits, retirement, etc. The transformation plan the Army is currently following indicates to me that, if necessary, the Army will actually shrink its 10-division roster.

Cutbacks will take a big toll of the military, but with Russia becoming a problem, I think our foreign policies will force us to use our military in a start-stop fashion.

reply to post by Justin Oldham


Well if SM is still looking for reader reaction to possible future events then I can say that I would be very angry at any premature withdrawl from Afghanistan. As I have said in the past many Americans and probably other nationality's have a hang up form the first Gulf War . Those people in question expect every war to be won via the use of massive amounts of fire power and for the conflict to be over in six weeks .

reply to post by sweatmonicaIdo .


Although it is unlikely it isnt impossible that the draft could be re inducted(SP?) in the US as a way of controlling unemployment during tough economic . Gates has recognized the need to some what drift away from high tech systems see this thread for more on this matter.


[edit on 17-10-2008 by xpert11]

It's possible that the Federal government may choose to expand the size of the armed forces as a way of creating jobs. The same may be true for Federal civil service. I think its more than likely to be the case that China...or somebody else...might act later in the next decade in part becuae they don't fear a U.S. response.

One case in point might be Russia. As Putin and his successors continue their military buildup, it may happen that the E.U. does not respond in kind. It's not impossible to imagine that Russia might go to war with the E.U., in part because they do not fear a U.S. counter move. It would be ironic in the extreme if the U.S. were called on to save Europe for a third time. Could we succeed? The issue seems in doubt.

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
It's possible that the Federal government may choose to expand the size of the armed forces as a way of creating jobs. The same may be true for Federal civil service. I think its more than likely to be the case that China...or somebody else...might act later in the next decade in part becuae they don't fear a U.S. response.

As Adolf Hitler (and later, Franklin Roosevelt) demonstrated, what better way to boost an economy than to arm for Armageddon?

One case in point might be Russia. As Putin and his successors continue their military buildup, it may happen that the E.U. does not respond in kind. It's not impossible to imagine that Russia might go to war with the E.U., in part because they do not fear a U.S. counter move. It would be ironic in the extreme if the U.S. were called on to save Europe for a third time. Could we succeed? The issue seems in doubt.

In the next five years, America will be extremely vulnerable. Myself and Paul Craig Roberts agree that a major military confrontation with Russia will take place within the next two to three years. I personally think Russia will get hostile with Ukraine and that will spark a response from the U.S. and NATO.

Russia's actions will play a key role in my revision of my futurism.

Five years from now, the Western powers will be quite weak. I agree that Russia and china will have less to fear. If we aren't careful, they might just get their way.

Russia doesn't necessary have to use military force to exert its influence . All ready as I understand a part of Eastern Europe is already energy depended on Russia and that falling oil prices are not beneficial to the country . Russia may become a sort of mini Saudi Arabia in that regard . Trading personal freedoms for perceived security may suit the old guard in Russia but it wont suit everyone . I find it hard to see that such a large country and population with differnt culturals , wide spread corruption can go without some level of instability in the future .

A second Russian Civil War would not come as a surprise to me .

I think Xpert11 is right in that, for the short term, as Russia gets stronger; it will wage a form of economic war. I wouldn't be surpsied if they did decide to go to war overUkraine, but that will be some years off.

The way I see it, Russia is the muscle, while China, with its economic/financial power, is the financier. What it is unable to do physically, it will support the actions of others.

I hate to say it, but China is indeed out to do us in.

The simplest scenario leading ultimately to World War is simply global economic collapse. This is triggered by trade becoming impossible due to mistrust in the credit system, willingness to pay back debt, or the value of the currency deflating before it can be paid back.

Once there is not global trade, every industrial nation will need to "secure" the resources required to sustain a functional degree of independant industrialization. Or fall to a state of non-industrialization.

This requires "the projection of power" which is the purpose of military organizations.

Military force controlled trade will replace currency based trade. Meaning all negotiations for resources will be a the end of a gun.

Competiton for those resources will likewise be decided via the projection of force to see who is the more motivated consumer.


[edit on 21-10-2008 by Cyberbian]

It seems likely to me that china would tacitly support any war that Russia decided to start. Even if that war is against Europe. Assuming that current Russian modernization and force builds remain in effect, we might see them "ready to go" inside of four years.

As a purely pracitcal matter, the Russians have not igven up theri heavy maneuver formations, or their doctrine that would make use of those elements. NATO is geared for small unit actions around the world. Could they respond with anything more than a stiff defense? Bear in mind that Russian air and rocket forces would be looking at strategic attack options which would curtail or eliminate EU military production.

If Russia chose to fight their continental campaign as a war of materiel...

[edit on 21-10-2008 by Justin Oldham]

reply to post by sweatmonicaIdo


According to Bible prophecy there will be a Gog/Magog(russia/iran/israel)war (ezekiel:38,39) whereby the one who makes the peace is the antichrist. After that we have 3&1/2 years of peace (chips,anyone?) before the SHTF until Armageddon.



[edit on 21-10-2008 by seabisquit]

Originally posted by seabisquit
reply to post by sweatmonicaIdo

 

According to Bible prophecy there will be a Gog/Magog(russia/iran/israel)war (ezekiel:38,39) whereby the one who makes the peace is the antichrist. After that we have 3&1/2 years of peace (chips,anyone?) before the SHTF until Armageddon.

It would be interesting to see who actually gets to be the one to make that peace. Many Americans would be surprised to learn that "our guy" is the aforementioned Anti-Christ.

[edit on 21-10-2008 by Justin Oldham]

reply to post by Cyberbian


India is or will be a key player in shaping the future influence of Russia and China in particular . At this stage IMO India is more likely to side with China and Russia . What could change this a mixture of diplomacy and the US economy making a sound recovery . If there is more incentive for India to deal with the US in economic terms then they are far more likely to side with the US . The relationship between China and Russia is built on the common border they share and the fact that Russia can supply China with natural resources which fuel that country's manufacturing economy .

It's that issue of a "manufacturing economy" that concerns me. The United States no longer posesses a manufacuring economy. How do you influence Russia or China when you no longer have the capability to make war?

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
It's that issue of a "manufacturing economy" that concerns me. The United States no longer posesses a manufacuring economy. How do you influence Russia or China when you no longer have the capability to make war?

What is of vital importance is what happens before any war takes place . I have noted India already but the same can be said for the US current and possible future allies . Gates has said that more coordination is needed between the US and other coalition nations in Afghanistan . This is certainly true and could be applied to dealing with the rise of China . As for the US lack of manufacturing capacity with the advent of Nuclear Weapons I am convinced that any conflict between the US and China would last long enough for manufacturing capability would become an issue .