Global War: Trend, Accident, or Conspiracy?

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
I can see how Saakashvili would go for a gambit of this nature. If the Russians do invest hiscountry, he's virtually guaranteed NATO membership, and a gold-plated invite to the EU. His people stand to pay a harsh price for this "benefit," but you've got to understand that Presidents play politics at a very high altitude. What's not acceptiable to you and me is incidental to them. Who knows? Machievelli might be proud.

And that's what bothers me about this whole thing. i'm about 99% convinced (and so are a lot of analysts) that this is precisely what Saakashvilli intended to do.

Someone was pointing out how a Tom Clancy game called Ghost Recon foreshadowed the South Ossetian conflict perfectly back in 2001. He also went further and pointed out that in the film adaptation of The Sum of All Fears, the neo-Nazi antagonist stated that one doesn't try fight the U.S. and Russia, you instead get the U.S. and Russia to fight each other. And destroy each other. Saakashvilli may not have been trying to fight the U.S., but it seems like he was trying to get the U.S. to face off with Russia.

Originally posted by Tentickles
I just read this whole thread over 3 hours and am completely enjoying it. I applaud your hard work on these subjects. here here.

Now the only thing I have noticed you haven't really touched on is the social aspect of how people react to the increased rates of crime. The underlying social structure of America would be threatened with the prospect that your neighbour might have murdered someone and gotten away with it due to the preoccupied authorities trying to regain peace.
Catch my train of thought?

I most certainly do catch your train of thought and it absolutely kills me that I can't cover that aspect well enough. I am, after all, a sociology major so everything I study, be it economics or international relations, comes down to how it affects the 16-year-old high school kid sitting in his room reading about these world events on his computer.

Unfortunately, I could write an endless number of stories from the eprspective of all different groups and people based around just a single event. Right now, in this thread, I'm pretty much just laying out the history and the facts. What happened? is what I'm gunning for right now. Anything else would require university-level exploration.

Well, now. Look at that. The Russians have conveniently...stopped. Looks like Saakasvili's gamble paid off. Now that Russi hold Apkhazia nad Ossetia, he can claim that Georgia has no more active border disputes. The way is now paved for NATO membership. My gut hunch is that this is what he hoped for all along.

Are there any plans afoot to turn this saga into anything more then just posts on ATS ?

Eastern Europe is certainly proving to be a political headache for the US . Russia is regaining some of its pride that was lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall . Understandable much of the former Soviet Block countries want to counter the rebirth of the bear . The only thing that I am reasonable certain will happen after a suitable amount of time is that US military aid to the region will increase .

Originally posted by xpert11
Are there any plans afoot to turn this saga into anything more then just posts on ATS ?

What are you proposing?

Eastern Europe is certainly proving to be a political headache for the US . Russia is regaining some of its pride that was lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall . Understandable much of the former Soviet Block countries want to counter the rebirth of the bear . The only thing that I am reasonable certain will happen after a suitable amount of time is that US military aid to the region will increase .

The President of Georgia is really beginning to get on my nerves. He stated earlier today that the U.S. military was going to take control of Georgian airfields and ports. He is really putting us into a very difficult position. If this trend continues, we could very well end up clashing with Russia.

Terrorism is going to seem like having herpes. Fighting Russia will be like having AIDS.

Everybody gotw hat they wanted, so I'm thinking that this conflict will now tune down andde-escalate. It's not unreasonable to assume the Russia senses weakness from the West. Putin is not yet ready for full-scale war. At his present rate of build-up, he will need another 2-4 years. In his shoes, I would wait for the Western economies to slide deeper in to recession before I made my move. No point in rushin' when you don't have to.

reply to post by sweatmonicaIdo


Nothing really I was just wondering if the thought of turning the ideas at work into some kind of published work had occurred to you . All of that is Justin department not mine .

Cheers xpert11.

reply to post by xpert11



You want me to be honest, I want to turn this into a mini-series. Multiple mini-series.

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
You want me to be honest, I want to turn this into a mini-series. Multiple mini-series.

There's no doubt in my mind that you have enough material here for a book. Funny thing is, writing is easy. Finding a publisher is the hard part. This, I know fromp ainful experience.

Well, I meant a television mini-series. LOL High-quality production values, live actors, epic scope, etc.

A book would be nice too, but I'm not the greatest fiction writer.

Ouch. I think I'd rather try to find a publisher. So far, I have had no luck at all getting in to see anyone in TV or film. Are you watching to see the Western reaction to the way the Russians are camping out in Georgia? THAT's an intersting story, if ever I saw one.

In my admittedly unqualified opinion a novel offers more room room for character development and events then a mini series does . Anyway at rate I can say with certainty that I am looking forward to the next instalment of this saga .

Cheers xpert11 .

That's one of the great things about the internet, you can write a story and it goes to your readers immediately. I recently had to end contract negotions with a publisher because things just weren't going in a positive direciton. I hope that S.M. understands that he's got an audience here, waiting for his next round of story telling.

My next installment is going to become very jam-packed and I am attempting to restore some of the dramatic effect that was prevalent in the story of the year 2009. I'm also going to incorporate some recent real-world developments into the story.

Well, now. That sounds pretty good. A lot has happened lately that could inspire any writer. I'm sure that I speak for everyone here when I say that we're looking forward to it.

A bit of an update. I may have said earlier in this thread that my story is open to revisions or even complete rewrites. Due to recent real-world events as well as the end of 2008 approaching, I am seriously considering one significant rewrite.

A major element of my story early on is that the U.S. and the U.N. gets involved in a large-scale bolstering of the humanitarian effort in Darfur/Sudan. This was largely based on what appears to be a struggling humanitarian support mission in the region, as well as an added political value of it being Bush's last major decision as president. However, as the weeks go by, the likelihood of the U.S. intervening in Sudan (or Africa period) seems next to unlikely.

The emergence of the situation with Russia, however, is a major addition to the story. As my last few updates have shown, the U.S. is beginning to butt heads with Russia starting in late 2009. Instead of getting involved in Sudan (this also is seeming like a very un-Bush-like thing to do as well), I am considering replacing that with a more extensive confrontation with Russia that carries on through much of 2009.

All other things being equal, I'd like all the readers to start putting Darfur/Sudan out of your heads. It just doesn't seem like its going to happen. I will post the revisions when I get them done.

reply to post by sweatmonicaIdo


IMO you are being to hard on yourself . Predicting events and nailing down an exact time frame are two differnt things. It is very difficult to pin point exactly when an event is going to take place unless you have access to some kind of information that gives you some direction on this matter . When I made predictions concerning the US future involvement in Africa I used something like a ten year frame time .Since you are the author surely you have the discretion to include or omit real life events as you see fit .

I'm just a very realistic person and nothing about current U.S. policy shows any inclination or possibility of us getting involved in Darfur/Sudan than we are any further. I also have to realize G.W. Bush is not G.H.W. Bush and the likelihood he'll do anything productive in the last few months of his presidency are slim to none.

Its just not going to happen. The U.S. has no interests in Africa. Until someone discovers oil there.

I think we are alleagerly awaiting the next phae in your story. you are well on your way towards an entire book. All you have to do is keep adding to this. And, before you know it...

Sorry for such a long hiatus, but the continuing developments in terms of this economic/financial crisis has forced me to do a lot of soul-searching in my writing of the future of this country.

I guess its safe to say the whole paradigm has shifted. I wrote in my previous entries that 2009 will absolutely blow. However, I think I may have gotten many things wrong. For one thing (and this is something I gained from watching a YouTube video), common 21st century geopolitical thought is that World War III would be engaged with China. However, as we saw this past August, Russia is still very much a great power and in fact the only nation capable of offsetting the U.S. in terms of international relations. Furthermore the extensive business links between the U.S. and China serve as an insurance policy that prevents any sort of armed conflict from occuring. Especially at a time when the U.S. is at the mercy of China's economy (and vice versa), the likelihood either side would risk such ties is slim to none. Such an insurance policy does not, however, exist between the U.S. and Russia, making military confrontation between the two countries all the more likely.

A part of me also wants to backtrack and emphasize the internal affairs of the U.S. during the time of economic/financial crisis. As Glenn Beck recently pointed out, the likelihood of martial law being enacted due to civil unrest as a result of economic strife is very, very real.

Any comments would be appreciated.