Dow up 416 as stocks have best day in five years

Trying to time the market, unless your a hedge fund manager, ensures you lose over the long term. Otherwise, your "unloading" will result in selling LOW and buying HIGH.

the rally is and will continue to be short's covering and an opportunity to sell on the rally's.

pac wind tell me what the net gain/loss is if in the next 3 years, the dow goes to 15,000 but the currency falls 40 percent?

actually since 2001 highs the dow has risen about 15% yet the dollar has fallen over 40%.

and yes people who try to time the markets will lose if not in the short term, then in the long term, the market is not free,it is rigged, besides the PPT, CNBC and the other financial and corporate marketing mouthpieces float certain rumor's knowing they can cause spike's and decline's because traders jump all over them, when you got the heads up ahead of other's, they will "own you" in these guessing games.

Adjusted for inflation, long term gains in the broad indices evaporate. In real terms the only way to profit is to trade them.

It's interesting to calculate DJIA purchasing power in terms of Gold. At the market high of 11,301 in May 2001, I could buy the index for 38 ounces. Today at 12,145, it costs slightly over 12.

For investors, the answer to that riddle is the Holy Grail imo.

Originally posted by pacificwind
Yes, its so easy to cherry pick your points to confirm your own worldview, isn't it?

Actually, no, you're cherry picking YOUR data based on a 1 day trend to attempt to reaffirm to a group of people that there ISN'T a problem.
The chart *I* displayed shows a trend over a 6 month period. That's not cherry picking, it's sound business practice as, it reflects exactly 2 consecutive fiscal quarters.

Originally posted by pacificwind
By the way, I'll let you know when I aim my sarcasm at the forum, its only at the omnipresent doom and gloom oracles that I'm talking about.

Your perception of doom and glomers may well just be people with foresight. You certainly can't know, and only one camp can be right, and in THAT, only time will tell. If you knew for SURE exactly what the markets were going to do,you wouldn't be here arguing about it, you would be sitting on a beach having W. Buffet bring you drinks.

Originally posted by pacificwind
How odd that you don't reply to the person talking about how we started the day in a negative, so it must be over?

I did, by default, by saying you weren't completely wrong either.

Originally posted by pacificwind
I can make things look real good when I cherry pick points to start, just as you have done

You did, by using a single day as a baseline by which to judge an entire group of people who may actually be right irrespective of a single day bounce.

reply to post by alphabetaone


I would again encourage you to read my posts, instead of just bashing everything that doesn't conform to your worldview. I will say it again for you: one day increases mean nothing, neither do one day decreases. The next time someone makes a posts on a one day drop (I have seen several) I look forward to seeing you post and talk about how one day drop mean nothing. Of course all of those posts seem to involve 99% of people back slapping each other and talking about how right they are that the end is nigh.

As I suspected, a post doing the opposite is met with utter contempt and insults. Just goes to show you the consistency of some (not all) of the posters

[edit on 14-3-2008 by pacificwind]

Who did the buying?

About an hour ago, we witnessed the PPT halt a sigma 4 market event. If you're blind...you might have missed it

Regardless, investor confidence is shattered. Like a brick out of a dark alley...we never know when when the next hit' coming. Lack of transparency, corruption, and out-right fraud...from CEO's to CFO's to the CNBC spin-masters.

This should be one of GW's finer performances. Watch his nose grow.

Originally posted by pacificwind
reply to post by alphabetaone

 

As I suspected, a post doing the opposite is met with utter contempt and insults. Just goes to show you the consistency of some (not all) of the posters

Right, which is why I stated that you weren't completely wrong at all. Typically a post with a brighter side IS met by resistance on here...I will be the first to agree with that. As, I also agree that a one day anything at all, is relatively meaningless, which, was my point too.

Still, only time will tell...and in some ways (as much as I'm sure this would draw crticism), I am on the fence of saying that I *HOPE* the economy doesn't tank for all our sakes, but on the other hand it's hard to not WANT to say that, myself being an avid proponent of saving, of NOT buying unnecessarily nor the desire to "keep up with the Jones'".

In some ways I think our population needs to learn their lesson the hard way, and perhaps (albeit doubtful) we will just say NO to the 5 50" TV's in the house, to the $500,000 Mortgages when they have only the ability to sustain $150,000, to the $40,000 car when the $20,000 will more than suffice...this is, unfortunately, the US mindset that needs some revamping, and maybe by failure and collapse is the only way.

WALL STREET JOURNAL POLL - Most Economists in Survey Say Recession Is Here

According to a Wall Street Journal Poll of economists, they feel now, by about 70% of them, that we ARE in a recession.

Most Economists in Survey Say a Recession IS Here

Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey are increasingly certain the U.S. has slid into recession, a view reinforced by new data showing a sharp drop in retail sales last month.

"The evidence is now beyond a reasonable doubt," said Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co.

Thirty-six of 51 respondents, or more than 70%, said in a survey conducted March 7-11 that the economy is in recession.

The Commerce Department said yesterday that retail sales fell 0.6% in February; sales excluding the volatile auto and auto-parts categories fell 0.2%. The declines reflect a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, which accounts for more than 70% of U.S. economic activity, as Americans grapple with high gasoline and food costs and declines in home values and other asset prices.

The EXPERTS are now finally coming to the realization that we ARE in a recession.

[edit on 14/3/08 by Keyhole]

reply to post by Keyhole


This is an absolutely classic attempt to spin data to make it say what you already think. Economists absoluely do not think we are in a recession.

There are approximately 15,000 economists in the United States [source]. In order to get a 95% confidence level and a 5% confidence interval (this is generous, a 3 percent interval is "normal"), you would need to survey 996 economists. You cannot generalize from a survey of 50 people. And yet the media does this all the time, and people buy it - because it confirms what they want to believe.

[edit on 14-3-2008 by pacificwind]

reply to post by pacificwind


whats your opinion on the news of a cash crisis at US investment bank Bear Stearns?

Do you still not yet see why people are all "doom and gloom"?

reply to post by 2ciewan


My opinion is that its a sign that a recession is coming, in order to compensate for the real estate and credit bubble. This is a required part of the business cycle. No, I do not see a need to run for the hills.

ok, so.......if you are willing to accept the fact that there is a recession coming, are you also willing to entertain the remote possibility, that by its definition the US could already actually be in recession?

Im in the UK, and we watched the impact Northern Rock had on the UK economy, im willing to bet that the 5th largest bank in the US doing something similar to Wall Street.

In my opinion this is a pretty damn strong indicator or recession, but not the sky falling

Originally posted by pacificwind
reply to post by 2ciewan

 

My opinion is that its a sign that a recession is coming, in order to compensate for the real estate and credit bubble. This is a required part of the business cycle. No, I do not see a need to run for the hills.

Recession is here pacific. Make no mistake without the fed bailouts and foreign money 3 of our largest firms would be in bankruptcy as we speak. Citi, Meryl Lynch, and Bear Stearns. Thats enough to put doom and gloom in my eyes looking at that fact alone along with the list of other issues that we have that are not being dealt with.

reply to post by mybigunit


No, a recession is not here by definition. We can argue this all day, but until and unless there are two successive quarters of negative GDP, there is not a recession. After one quarter of negative GDP, I would feel more confident that a recession is here. After two, I would say a recession is in fact here. I am not going to change how recession has always been defined to make it fit my worldview - which is what everyone who so desperately wants a recession is doing.

As I said though, don't get me wrong. I am quite happy there are you doom and gloom oracles out and about. It causes average investors to sell off because they don't know what they are doing and are listening to media hype. When they SELL LOW, BUY HIGH, I profit So please don't stop - everyone, sell everything and run to gold/silver and oil! I certainly do not want the truth to get involved with emotional investors, as then I wouldn't be able to profit as much off them.

[edit on 15-3-2008 by pacificwind]

Gold and Silver have given me a handsome return since I switched into them 6 months ago. If and when the time comes I'll be ready to move again. Let's not demonize smart investing.

[edit on 15-3-2008 by HimWhoHathAnEar]

Originally posted by pacificwind
reply to post by mybigunit

 

No, a recession is not here by definition. We can argue this all day, but until and unless there are two successive quarters of negative GDP, there is not a recession. After one quarter of negative GDP, I would feel more confident that a recession is here. After two, I would say a recession is in fact here. I am not going to change how recession has always been defined to make it fit my worldview - which is what everyone who so desperately wants a recession is doing.

As I said though, don't get me wrong. I am quite happy there are you doom and gloom oracles out and about. It causes average investors to sell off because they don't know what they are doing and are listening to media hype. When they SELL LOW, BUY HIGH, I profit

So please don't stop - everyone, sell everything and run to gold/silver and oil! I certainly do not want the truth to get involved with emotional investors, as then I wouldn't be able to profit as much off them.

[edit on 15-3-2008 by pacificwind]

Ive been in gold and I continue to make a killing. Im glad you agree with Bush that everything is Ok. So you need that bridge in Brooklyn?

reply to post by mybigunit


I'm glad you agree with the mass media the the end is nigh/we're all going to die/run for the hills. I hope that bunker your building keeps you safe from the recession.

Originally posted by pacificwind
reply to post by mybigunit

 

I'm glad you agree with the mass media the the end is nigh/we're all going to die/run for the hills. I hope that bunker your building keeps you safe from the recession.

How does making a wise investment and making a bunch of money equate with that garbage you just spewed?

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


I think you should look at the garbage you keep throwing out. The mass media is leading the sheeple to the slaughter, telling them to run and buy gold and silver as they always do during recessions. If you would read my posts and stop with your foaming at the mouth rabid posting, you would see I have said that I'm happy about this, but unfortunately we're reaching the point where the sheeple are all buying into it, and it will have to crash down soon. If you sell before it crashes, good, you made money off the doom and gloom oracles. If not, then you screwed yourself.

reply to post by pacificwind

If you sell before it crashes, good, you made money off the doom and gloom oracles. If not, then you screwed yourself.

And I will. Your assumption is the latter however. Since you seem to be here to spew venom. Being Prepared is never wrong.