Dow up 416 as stocks have best day in five years

Sory, but some of you remind me of a dog who's grabbed onto the hem of a womans dress and wont let go whenever a wonderful report like this is made public.

See? everything is fine. I told ya all. Those conspiracy theorists are nuts!!

Thanks for making me laugh, i needed it.

Respectfully,

Moi.

reply to post by pacificwind


All I can say brother, is go back to July and August and read what many here have been saying since then ... we are entering a recession .. we hit our peak after turmoil in the fall, and fell since then.. and it was predicted on ATS over and over again.

14,100+ to 11,800 in 6 months, most of the fall happening right before and after the turn of the year.

That is on scale to be considered a correction .. only the correction is not finished because the volatile market has only gotten worse, not better.

One day of +++'s does not out do the actual fact of the economy .. and the market is a great indicator of the weariness and jittery attitude investors have about the state of affairs right now..

reply to post by Rockpuck


And where was everyone when the market was going up? Also telling us the end was nigh.

Despite all the hysterics over the market - which as you know again is a terrible indicator for the economy anyways - there have been QUITE a few up days because as you said, this is a correction. And there is nothing I know of that says you cant have a correction and have the market be volatile.

Perhaps it *is* to much to ask for people to be consistent. Also, this wasn't just a one day gain - we've had lots of those, looking over the DOW charts, this was the biggest gain for the past _5_ years. Regardless of any doomsday saying, this is significant.

We are not in a recession, and the last quarter of 08 - during the midst of all this "the economy is down, we're all going to die" panic that we saw last year, STILL had slightly positive GDP growth. No negative growth during a recession? That would mean were not in a recession. Are we heading towards one? I don't know, we are overdue for another business cycle to go down.

Its funny when the realist is called an optimist because I don't think the end is nigh after looking at the data.

If you proclaim the stock market will go down long enough - eventually, it will go down.

[edit on 11-3-2008 by pacificwind]

i think the ability for pacificwind to classify anyone who doesn't bury their head in ignorance and claim the goldilocks market is destined for sustainable greatness is a " end is near type of person".

you lost all credibility with IMO most people who follow markets when you said the central banks co-ordinated injection of a 200 billion loan to investment banks was not the reason for the large day.

their is tons of uncertainty in the market. Certain ideas and phrases such as business cycle's make very complicated multi faceted economic and financial happenings fit easier into boxes that people can comprehend.

The business cycle has been a theory, some economicst swear by it, other like Michael hudson say it has never existed, just boom's and bust's.

The fed has been relying on asset bubbles in various sectors to grow the economy lately. Every single country in history that has fiat debt as a currency has been unable to sustain a high standard of living for long. History will point you to this uncomfortable truth. America having the dollar as world reserve currency has prolonged our "reign", however a central banks reliance on bubbles and now fraud ridden bubbles to grow an economy should be seen as the last desperate throws of a greedy cartel. Wall street investment banks created the "FED" in 1913. It serves them in reality. They take car of their own, namely JP morgan and Goldman Sachs, the bankers are cunning business men, they are extremely business savvy and were relentless in attempting to gain the power to control the nations money supply. They have never had the people's best intrest in mind, it just so happens that they took full advantage of the globe's business model which has the lucky american's as the big consumers (70%) of GDP, they milked us for all the debt they could, and they will leave us out to dry.

The giant rally today was due to the large loan injection giving the mortgage crap a temporary market and tons of short covering.

This is desperation and depending on how the bond market (global bond markets are larger than global stock markets btw) digests this will probably determine how much the fed can continue to cut IMO.

Excellent point...

Originally posted by 2ciewan
The ECB is also making available another $15bn

the key word is another... lest we forget that several weeks ago the ECB made an astounding $500 Billion available to It's member banks !


and the ECB's mega dose of liquidity was after the US Fed made some $80 billion available to the USA central banks 2+ weeks earlier.
~i recall that there are several threads here on ATS dealing with these previous bailouts~


bottom line, the US Fed - is still behind the ECB (together with England & Swiss) liquidity injections by some $300 Billion...
And the USA is where the whole mess started, so, this 'Acme' bandage
is inadequate for the severity of the wound (imho)


thanks

Pacific you do crack me up. The market is an indicator for the economy and Rockpuck took the words right out of my mouth. Look at August of last year when the tanking began that was an indicator that bad things were to come and the people in charge needed to act. Nothing happened so now what.

As far as CEO pay do you understand how a CEO gets paid pacific? Board members vote on a CEO pay. Now here is where the colluding/conflict of interest comes into affect most of those board members are boys with the CEO and some are even brought on cause of the CEO. I'm not even signaling out just CEOs all the execs are making way more than they should. Its part of the good ole boy network and if you dont believe that exists I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I'll sell you.

I love the post gang going on here, its hilarious. Its easy apparently to classify anyone who doesn't bury their hand in the sand and buy the mass media's "OMG OMG OMG WERE ALL GOING TO DIE," approach. Of course, its much harder to actually look at the data instead of towing the media line

Because surely, everyone who doesn't think the end is nigh MUST think the economy is going great, right? Right?!

Per the usual, the market goes up and its all a a lie and time to run for the hills! Lets go! Lets all think the market is the only way to measure the economy and certainly not look at things like the GDP

Oh and my big unit, if you think everyone is colluding to keep you down, I have some swamp land in Florida to sell you!

[edit on 12-3-2008 by pacificwind]

To grasp how significant this five-fold bubble increase is, let's put that $516 trillion in the context of some other domestic and international monetary data:

• U.S. annual gross domestic product is about $15 trillion
• U.S. money supply is also about $15 trillion
• Current proposed U.S. federal budget is $3 trillion
• U.S. government's maximum legal debt is $9 trillion
• U.S. mutual fund companies manage about $12 trillion
• World's GDPs for all nations is approximately $50 trillion
• Unfunded Social Security and Medicare benefits $50 trillion to $65 trillion
• Total value of the world's real estate is estimated at about $75 trillion
• Total value of world's stock and bond markets is more than $100 trillion
• BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion
• BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion.

www.jsmineset.com...

this is an interesting article, talks about black market banks creating money out of thin air, without much, if any regulation....
that bogus money far exceeds the total value of the worlds real estate, our gdp, and the total US money supply.

like someone already said, the stock market's up and down isn't a good indicator of the state of our economy...
there's no way that anyone is gonna convince me that with this much imaginary money floating around the system, that all is peachy keen! it isn't!

in the end, we might have to put an end to the fed and have the government take back it's responsibility to issue currency....the fed cannot back this kind of debt! they're gonna lose their shirts trying to.

reply to post by pacificwind


In what world do you live in where the media is predicting doom and gloom doomsday rhetoric?

Can you direct me to the network and or programing you are watching as the only thing I'm seeing is the blissful ignorance and trust in a system thats was doomed to fail from its conception...

A system based on endless debt is doom and gloom buddy you can spin the BS whatever way you want but thats fact...

Tell me Mr. Optimistic, How do you predict we will be able to pay back the interest on our Federal Reserve loans courtesy of a Government who gave away its oversight and power to a private corporation, with the sole purpose of f****** you over form its conception?

Those who are optimistic of this system are, base this optimism off of short term spikes, that are manipulated, These short term spikes, are just that short term...

The system will fail, it was meant to, it was meant to drive us into exactly what most Americans are in and the country as a whole is in, debt
aka slavery, with debt they hold the power over us, when all this sht crashes down, the only ones left standing will be the very people who influence and manipulate this. and the very few who weren't stupid enough to go into debt, by purchasing things with money they never had...


Those in control of this little game prey on the stupidity and greed of Americans...


I'm not a rich man, i get by just fine, I may not have everything I want, but guess what, I own everything I have.


So have fun America, With the car you'll be paying off for the next 10 years, of your 30 year house payments, You don't own a damn thing, They own you.

[edit on 12-3-2008 by C0le]

reply to post by pacificwind



Euro hits record vs dollar...

"There was a knee-jerk reaction on Tuesday, but we're seeing today that these measures haven't really helped mitigate pressure in the financing markets," said Sophia Drossos, senior currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

I don't know about you PacificWind, but looks like some of the other members of this forum may have been correct.

I don't think the USA is going to "collapse"( I sure as hell don't want it to) but I think that we might be heading into some hard times. Harder than any of us have ever seen here in this country.

Again, has it occured to you that just because I don't believe the Great Depression is here that it in no way means I think everything is going well?

Of course not. But I guess that because I do not predict doom and gloom IT MUST mean that! Right?!

A normal business cycle recession is hardly "harder times than we have ever seen," but you are free to think whatever you want. But I guess if you watched CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, or CBS...or read the New York Times or Washington Post... where we are constantly told the end is nigh, I could understand it.

You know your amongst a pack of doomsday oracles whenever just because you don't think the end of the economy is here, it must mean your an "optimist."

[edit on 12-3-2008 by pacificwind]

Originally posted by St Udio


and the ECB's mega dose of liquidity was after the US Fed made some $80 billion available to the USA central banks 2+ weeks earlier.

Good point's Udio, but I think I have to further this conversation by saying a couple things about this IMO.

For one I think a huge part of the misconception is just that...liquidity. I dont think the problem is liquidity, but solvency. I mean, seriously we can only sell a $200,000 home for $600,000 for so long, and we can only afford to lend to people $400,000 when they can only sustain $200,000 for so long.

There is little asset based value.

Secondly, I don't think Pacificwind is ENTIRELY incorrect, although some of the knee-jerk rallying may have been from the $200b cash infusion, also let us not forget the semi-radical investors too, who have the money to play and get it into their heads that maybe the USD, the Markets have taken a bad enough beating and decide to inject their own positions into the economy...especially if they short, they will amost be guaranteed to come out as a winner because people are just LOOKING for excuses to see a positive market. By inflating artificial confidence, again, they're bound to come out on top.

Pacificwind, I think personally, you need to think a little bit though before you accuse a group of people of DOOMSAYING when you're the aggressor lol. You originally posted, it seems, in hope that someone would argue your point such that you could twist the conversation long enough to make any subsquent response to your post seem argumentative. That's not nice, stop it

So when is the next print out of money is coming out, obviously like many already pointed out this was going to be short lived.

So I want Barnanke to bail me out with 1 million dollar.

[edit on 12-3-2008 by marg6043]

reply to post by alphabetaone


Thanks for proving my point. When someone disagrees with the post gang here, everyone latches on. Its quite clear. The piling on is not nice, I wish YOU would stop it. Your just LOOKING for excuses to proclaim doomsday, and its beginning to become funny. Actually, it already is.

The point is very clear: the end is not nigh, and the biggest increase in 5 years demonstrates this. I have never claimed elsewhere that I think the economy is rosy, despite attempts by the forum gang to try to paint that picture. Talk about group think!

[edit on 12-3-2008 by pacificwind]

Originally posted by pacificwind

The United States is not in a recession, face reality. Read actual economic literature, and learn the definition of a recession.

Well, according to a man who is now richer than Bill Gates we are in a recession!

Buffett: US Essentially in Recession.

Billionaire Warren Buffett said Monday that the U.S. economy is essentially in a recession even if it hasn't met the technical definition of one yet.

Buffett said in an interview with cable network CNBC the reports he gets from the retail businesses his holding company owns show a significant slowdown in purchases.

The chairman and CEO of Omaha-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said millions of people have also lost equity in their homes because home prices have dropped.
"I would say,
by any commonsense definition, we are in a recession," Buffett said on CNBC.

But Buffett said it's not clear how far the recession will go because that is difficult to predict.

It has already been debated on this thread if you want to deabate on if we are in a recession or not.

Bush: US is Not Headed into Recession - ATS Thread

Walk into your local town centre, your eyes will show you that,

I don't know about where you live, but things are REEEAAALLY slow/bad where I live!

My family has owned a business now for 30 years, and this is THE WORST we have ever seen. Where we used to get 30 to 40 calls a day, now we may get 5 to 10 calls a day. This time of year we would usually have work scheduled for a week or two in advanced (that would be four jobs a day). Well, we have 2 jobs scheduled for tomorrow so far and that is it!

So, I don't know where you live, but the economy isn't doing very well where I am!

[edit on 12/3/08 by Keyhole]

reply to post by Keyhole


First, thanks for replying without personal attacks. Your the first person in a while to do that, and it is appreciated. I think a lot of people in this forum could learn from not being rabid when someone doesn't agree with their ideology.

I live in a city that has a huge financial sector. The climate represents what it did before the last recession - but it is not representative of the end is near/were all going to die/kill yourself now mentality. Also, since we haven't had 2 successive quarters of negative GDP growth - we simply are not in a recession. Even if this quarter is negative, that is 1 quarter. Its simply the definitional reality.

reply to post by pacificwind


I didn't prove your pont, I made my own point(s). And they are, in order and for re-iteration:

1) St. Udio had some pretty good words of wisdom.
2) That you weren't entirely incorrect as the majority of posters believe you were.
3) That there may have been supplemental reasons other than cash injection for the short-lived rally.
4) That you were hoping to instantiate and illicit exactly the responses, by you confronting an entire Forum with their doomsaying, that you are now trying to decry.

reply to post by Keyhole


I was listening to CNBC is talks about getting some of the oil reserves to bail out the American consumer, so lets see how good the government will come true to help the peoples pocket now that we are up to 110 dollars a barrel and is not stopping the run away train that oil prices has become.

I say lets buy only BP and stop bying Exxon and Mobil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Boy 200 Billion just doesn't buy what it used to. The Dow has already sobered up and resumed its slide. The negative effects of monetizing debt are quite apparent on the other hand. Euro=$1.55 Oil=$110. Inflation, coming to a shopping list near YOU!

Originally posted by pacificwind
Again, has it occured to you that just because I don't believe the Great Depression is here that it in no way means I think everything is going well?

Of course not. But I guess that because I do not predict doom and gloom IT MUST mean that! Right?!

[edit on 12-3-2008 by pacificwind]

From your OP:

Today, the market had the largest single day gain it has ever had FOR FIVE YEARS. While I'm sure the prophets of doom will come out to tell us this is all a one day thing and the end is still nigh, I think the evidence speaks for itself.

These two quotes seem to contradict one another. Like I said, I DO NOT WANT THE U.S. ECONOMY TO TANK. And I am certainly not a "doom and gloom oracle" like you say. In fact, I have never even made a post on a financial thread before. I just think you are buying into an idea that you will eventually regret.


Here are just some of the Headlines and articles up on Google news right now...


Euro notches series of record highs against greenbacks...

U.S. Feb budget gap balloons to record $175.56 billion...

Freddie Mac CEO: Home prices will keep falling...

Oil Rises above $110 to record as the dollar falls against Euro...

Drake may shut largest hedge fund after losses...


You can keep calling me and everyone else names if that makes you feel better. I personally think that its pretty obvious that we are not in a normal "slump" or whatever you call it. Keep pumpin' the sunshine my man!