Originally posted by ejsaunders
I've read all the info on GW and think its total crap myself personally, there is documentable evidence that the earth goes through these changes and
that the heating is probably caused by sun activity that increases at various times (I think ever 1000 years or so, sorry I can't quite remember).
The temperatures have gone up and down at many times, sometimes its been too hot that things have melted, and at others streams and rivers, even lakes
have frozen (I think the last time was when the Thames froze in the 1800s maybe?)
You have some of the facts right, at least the general ideas, BUT, that isnt the whole story. There is scientific evidence the climate does fluctuate
naturally. (ie: without Human intervention, though we dont know if large events like huge eruptions releasing lots of CO2 might trigger these natural
fluctuations.) And we DID have a small blip in temperature that did cause a what is called the "little Ice age" see the link here to Wikipedia for
an decent easy to read article with a nice chart showing temperatures.
en.wikipedia.org...
This was not completely harmless to humans as you may note, even though skating on the Thames sounds fun.
What worries climatologists the most is NOT the natural fluctuations, though to be perfectly honest, that would be bad enough, if our planet was
headed towards a natural "peak and then valley" in temperature. Our population is huge, and we require food, and even a natural warming trend or
"ice age" could cause millions, maybe billions to starve. And some of these people (Europeans) now have nukes. Not everyone is going to lay down
and die quietly, like the poor Ethiopians are forced to, some people are going to say screw this and try to move somewhere more suitable, and they
might start wars while doing so, which of course, would not be fun.
One of the things that worries climatologists is this data from the Vostok ice cores. (This graph from Wikipedia also)
en.wikipedia.org...:Co2-temperature-plot.svg
This shows the "normal" fluctuations of CO2, and the corresponding temperature increases and decreases. You can see the data goes back some 400
thousand years for the Vostok samples, with CO2 being represented in the light blue, and temperature being represented by the orange lines on the
graph. You may notice, that they correlate, or follow each other pretty closely. Now admittedly, it is a simple scientific fact, that correlation
DOES NOT prove causation. Anyone who told you it did would be lying. There could be another "cause" we dont understand or have data for, but that
said, we dont know that it ISNT the cause either, and anyone who told you they did would be lying through their teeth. Because there is a strong
correlation, and because a sharp temperature rise and then drop would devastate us, we have to give it serious consideration, and try to make
predictions and figure out what to do using what we have.
At the far right hand side of the graph, you may notice an arrow that says "current CO2 level." THIS is what has some quite concerned. (as far as
the natural ups and downs are concerned that is) That point is over twice as high as the highest recorded CO2 concentration on record. This worries
us because temperature has historically followed quite closely behind. Notice also that after each "peak" there is a sharp drop, an "ice age."
We have no idea what a peak the size of the current one bodes in terms of the corresponding drop. It simply has never happened before, that we know
of, and all historical indications seem to point to brutal drop in temperature, that may also exceed any we have data about.
So, bottom line, no one is precisely 100% certain what is going to happen and when. BUT we have a pretty good idea from history what is LIKELY to
happen. But because the scale is so off the chart in terms of historical levels, this could happen faster, and be more extreme than what has come
before.
What China is doing really isnt the point right now. Sure it would be nice if everyone took this seriously, but the Chinese arent allowed access to
information like Americans are. Americans CAN research this stuff themselves and still people dont. They just ignore it. Personally, I think we may
have already started something we cant stop, and what we need to do as a species, is figure out how to allow some of us to survive it. And, I would
like to see that happen with as little war as possible, as a nuclear winter thrown on top of that just really couldnt help matters. So to me,
voluntarily not breeding all crazy seems a reasonable place to start. If food production drops, usually people just starve or slaughter each other.
Animals do this too. But we claim to be smarter than the animals, and I just personally wish we would act that way. The kindest, most humane way to
lower the population is by having fewer children voluntarily.