Asteroid Apophis Heading Towards Earth! Contingency Plans Being Developed By United Nations!

reply to post by Nohup


Now that is funny. OR it could be the one that kills all of us. Not sure but astroids hitting earth is becoming more heard of these days. Interesting...

reply to post by SimonSays


NASA has significant data. It differs very little from IAF stated values. With this one it's the relative Delta V and it's mass - the math is "not so good".

This one's pedal to the metal. The orbit is available online. Were it to hit... There are impact sims if one has a look. There are impact calc stuff too if one looks. It was posted in other similar threads here. This is the "one" we actually need to worry more about rather than less about. Orbits change. Stuff happens. Right now it misses by a huge margin. Check the E MOIDs.

It would be a true technical feat of enormous proportion to meet it on the "way in" and do something effective.

Still though... without any warning (or not much) an even a bigger, faster, more dense one could pop out from our blind spots and "El-Kabong" - it rains Earth on the Moon. Catastrophic at a minimum. Our species needs to know more about this. It's a mother of a neccesity for an invention.

Vic

[edit on 1-2-2008 by V Kaminski]

Not that Wikipedia is the end all, by any means.

But according to them this asteroid has one chance in 40 thousand of hitting the earth. Pretty slim odds.

I remember reading about Apophis in the regular papers around 2004. It made quite a sensation.

Wikipedia sounds correct to me. For example, the discussion of the "keyhole" affect is very lucid (and discounted.)

Here is the Wikipedia article.

Am I the first to link to this article, or was this mentioned already?

(Edited to get the odds correct.)

[edit on 1-2-2008 by Buck Division]

reply to post by mikesingh

Starred and flagged. Very good find. I'd hid to the hills before it hits but I would have to find some hills on Mars to hid in.



[edit on 1-2-2008 by Sanity Lost]

JPL Orbital Data 99942 Apophis

Here's a Youtube of what the software does... it's just the Kepplerian data though... no one mentions the "other" more complex stuff. It's all just estimates anyway.

Apophis - Impact Risk sim clip


BTW: There are 992 other as NASA says "potentially hazardous asteriods" that we (meaning NASA) can collectively consider. Oh yeah, that's just the known ones... I'm wondering if there are those that might be listed somewhere a bit "darker". There might be some pretty good work in the archives. The list NASA's 992.

That the UN is involved is... well. It's the UN right? It'll never work beyond some grand statement of intent at best... maybe some research bucks to squander. There's about 3 maybe 6 countries or spheres of capability that "could" do something. It would be great if it was together as friends. That's not going to happen IMHO, that's unfortunate.

Vic

[edit on 1-2-2008 by V Kaminski]

reply to post by mikesingh


Hi, a lot of great information here. I would like to play devils advocate here for a second. Now, I will not downplay the data that you have provided but I would like to share a thought.

Do you remember Roslin, the woman who was at Dr.Vernor Von Brown death bed before he died. She said the United States would try to weaponize space by creating a new threat which is Asteroids and then she mentions the final card being "Aliens and UFOs". to put fear into the world just to weaponize space. She said Dr.Vernor Von Brown said they would bring this up and it's all a lie.

Now I am all for protecting Earth for disastrous asteroids that could eliminate life here. But I sometimes wonder if this card is slowly being played out because it's getting pretty hard to believe anything coming out of NASA these days.

Could this be the case?

For me, I did pay attention to the last asteroid that flew by (which I think NASA listed it as 1.4LD). I was shocked how I got more information about it coming from ATS then I did the news. But as soon as it passed and missed our planet, it was on the mainstream news websites. (CNN, FOX, ABC). These sites listed this asteroid as the closet near miss in 2000 years.

So, if this asteroid was seriously going to hit Earth, I would assume they would send a nuclear warhead to try and move it off course. Which is not the case here.

I know its probably just to keep panic to a minimum but I wonder why things like this do not make the news more often.

So, for the record.

I know it's possible that we can get hit by one, but I wonder if this is also part of the plan to weaponize space.

That's my two cents.

reply to post by TheInfamousOne


I agree with you completely TIO. Whether anyone admits it or not space is already weaponized IMHO... maybe not for popping asteroids but more Earthly pursuits. More likely to perish from that threat before 2004MN4 99942 Apophis comes by in just over 28 years on April 13 2036.

Cheers,

Vic

reply to post by TheInfamousOne

I'm glad you brought that up (Von Brown)
asteroids and the United Nations mixed together
kinda sounds New World Orderish to me.
A valid point indeed

2036? I think we will all die from reading this thread before this thing ever gets close. One of these days though, one of these things is going hit, buy it is probably a little early to start following this one. .

The future is what we make it. It's as plain and simple as that.

There are so many solutions for altering the trajectory of a Potential earth striking object... The key though is Time.

How much warning time there is defines whether we are able to do anything at all.

I don't believe this story is a fear mechanic of a 'NEW WORLD ORDER'. If they really wanted to create fear they would talk about the Thousands of objects that we don't know about.

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know."

Donald Rumsfeld

If there is enough time, the best way I would say to alter the trajectory of an asteroid or comet is

1. Change its mass. This would change its trajectory

When most people think of destroying an asteroid or altering it's mass they normally think of blowing it or a pieces of it. Though the easiest way is to go and land gyroscopes made of lead onto the surface to alter its mass index.

2. Alter its reaction to the solar wind.

Send a satellite filled with either a super reflective paint or super black absorbing paint. Changing the reflective properties of a part of the object would change it's solar orbital trajectory.

I would favour option one as it would give us direct control over the object.

Option two comes in to play if time is pressing.

Personally I live my live one hour at a time and I advise all of you to do the same. Life is the most amazing thing and its value is beyond countable. Enjoy what you have and do as much good as you can. Above all be happy!!

All the best,

NeoN HaZe.

If the TU 24 thread was any indication, MikeSing has hit the ats point goldmine. This thing has a 20 year life unless it misses us then (IT WILL) and then 36 years till it gets even closer. I have always been alot more concerned about these Apophis approaches then I ever was with Y2K or 2012 and might as well throw apocalyptic prophecy in there too.

My 2 cents. We should catch it in space and put on some wings and an engine and you got a spaceship.

reply to post by Nohup

You forgot the Cubs win the world series, and Buffalo Bills win the Superbowl.

reply to post by mikesingh


You know what's funny as of few months ago I noticed there are many adds/commercials on TV (I barely watch) about how we should all have a "Contingency Plans" for an emergency situation, such as getting canned food, bottle water, enough to live on for weeks. This add is paid for by government and I'm wondering what they know that we don't! But something BIG is going to happen soon... even the government is trying to prepare us without creating a panic!

man, what is going on? All of a sudden 'scary' asteroid stories are all the rage. A new one every day. Have asteroids become the new global warming?

reply to post by Neon Haze


Logic and reason, always a good thing my friend....great input!

Originally posted by Neon Haze
The future is what we make it. It's as plain and simple as that.

You make several good points. However, I predict nothing will be done until it's too late to do anything. Too early the correct nudge vector is unknown, and any mistake could be disastrous. Too late there is nothing we can do, except fragmenting it with nukes, which is useless because the mass and velocity remains the same, and therefore the overall energy released by the impact is the same.

1. Change its mass. This would change its trajectory

A few tons more or less is negligible compared to an estimated mass of 2 10^10 kg.

I saw this on the History Channel series "Last Days on Earth" and they said it is
a very unlikely chance that it would hit us but would pass us. Like a 1/10,000 chance, but then again that is still scary.

I think they also said 2 NASA scientists are already working on the possibility if it comes so I don't think that will be something we have to worry about.

Hi There,

I wonder if the earth is heading into an area of space that is more cluttered with natural debris? What I mean by this is free-ranging debris not caught up in gravity-influence like the Kuiper Belt, etc.

When we do get hit, and of course, it's not a matter of 'if', but 'when', I feel it will be by something totally unexpected, popping up out of the dark just in time to say 'boo!', and then to slam into us. The feasibility of many of the ideas to deal with these mountain-sized objects are to my mind, pure science fiction. As one astute poster indicated earlier, knocking the object off collision course by a small vector, may only speed up or slow down the inevitable. We have to destroy these things way before they turn onto a collision orbit. We should be destroying them now during their near-miss fly-bys with our planet. We should be destroying them now just after they have missed us, so that when we break them up, the trajectories of the pieces are heading away from earth into space. I just hope we have the technology and weaponry to do this? Personally, I don't think we have.

I've known about this date for years. I've actually talked to the Director of the JPL's NEO Program, and MANY contingencies are being considered.

I'm not sure whether the OP mike would be into it, but my Missus' suggested a contest within the thread or a contest of some sort to do with Apophis pass 2029.

Maybe a team for each of the hypothesized methods of averting disaster by whatever means. What sets this thread apart from the other 10 pages of Apophis ATS search hits is the UN part.

With the various great suggestions everyone has made and all the great stuff that been written on Apophis on ATS since 99942 Apophis was discovered it could be great fun. Who needs rocket scientists (they ARE admired here) when we have ATS crowdsource horsepower under the hood?

Nukes, gravity tractors, centrifugal mass gyros, solar sails or any tech that is currently avaliable to humans that we know of. I'd forego participation personally just to see it happen.

I do believe that those 992 threats listed are worth taking seriously. Not in my life, but in the not to distant future. Perhaps mikesingh could approach ATS staff and see if it is an idea that has merit.

Remember it does make a close-ish pass in 2029. So if there were a contest of sorts (bragging rights only maybe) that might be an ideal timeline to use. dollnean. I'd suggest using the best current numbers and actually attempt to "work the problem people" and do an ATS-think tank.

The solution would need to be reasonably doable and obey the current laws of physics and mathematics. Use UN or NASA numbers for expedience. The mass is "known", so is the volume, so's the velocity and so's the orbital data, so's nuke yield damage. The SANDIA Labs vid clip earlier in the thread does show accurately (as they believe) the shape and the substance has been thoerized upon as well.

Might be a fun way to learn some stuff to disspell any NEO-mania or perceived hysteria because there will be others like 2007TU24 that pop up... having awareness of the possibilities before the next event could spark some great ideas.

Oh, BTW 2007TU24 should get it's permanent number name in a few months from the IAF at the symposium.

Cheers,

Vic]

[edit on 1-2-2008 by V Kaminski]