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This is primarily a result of the lack of sufficient observations for contrail-forming environments and the inability to obtain reliable moisture measurements from rawinsonde data at contrail altitudes. For this reason, much of the previous research directed toward predicting contrail development has not utilized empirical temperature and moisture observations but instead relied mainly on physically based models that could not always be verified (Appleman 1953; Scorer and Davenport 1970; Hanson and Hanson 1995).
ams.allenpress.com...(1997)036%3C1211%3AAEMTPW%3E2.0.CO%3B2
The environmental conditions that favor contrail formation and persistence are not well understood primarily due to the limited number of empirical studies.
adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997JApMe..36.1211T
Not being able to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails does not mean they don't occur
The environmental conditions that favor contrail formation and persistence are not well understood primarily due to the limited number of empirical studies. This study presents an empirical model to predict widespread occurrences of contrails (outbreaks), which was developed from a combination of rawinsonde temperature and GOES water vapor information. Environments containing persisting contrails were first identified on Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite imagery for the United States for January and April 1987 and then analyzed in more detail using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite digital data. Adjacent clear and cloudy environments not containing contrails were identified to compare with the conditions favorable for contrail persistence. For this purpose, a predictive logistic model was developed through multiple regression analysis.The model performance was evaluated through goodness-of-fit methods and found to be statistically significant across a range of atmospheric conditions. To further evaluate the model and to demonstrate its application on a real-time basis, predictions of the probability of persisting contrails were made for a case day. Comparisons of the predictions to satellite observations of the existing conditions (using AVHRR data) demonstrate good model performance and suggest the utility of this approach for predicting persisting contrail occurrence. Implementation of this model should allow climate researchers to better quantify the influence of contrails on surface climate and natural cloud formation.
adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997JApMe..36.1211T
So you're saying that believing for the past few decades that contrails can spread out into cirrus sheets is a 'mistake'.
And that for decades the myth has been perpetuated because no-one wants to admit that somoone in 1930 got it wrong. Accounts of persistent contrails in the past are all hoaxes I suppose?
None of the soundings show RHI > 72%, despite
the fact that the PIT rawinsonde must have passed
through contrail A on its way to the stratosphere. To
support a persistent contrail, the maximum PIT RHI from
the sonde would need to be increased by 35% or more.
Another sounding taken over western OH yielded RHI =
117% at 225 hPa. Natural cirrus clouds were passing
over the Wilmington, OH station at the time. Because it
is theorized that natural cirrus clouds can only form
adiabatically for RHI exceeding 145% or more (Sassen
and Dodd 1989), the dry bias appears to be consistent
in both clear and cloudy skies. To account for the dry
bias, a correction formula was developed by assuming
that most of contrails observed by Sassen (1997; his
Fig. 5b) should have occurred only in supersaturated
conditions. To include most of his contrail observations
above a new line representing RHI = 100%, it is
necessary to specify that RHI = 100% for the sonde
value of RH = 16% at -70°C and RHI = 100% at RH =
72% and -36°C.
www-pm.larc.nasa.gov...
According to the classical contrail formation theory,
contrails can persist when the ambient air is supersaturated
with respect to ice (that is, the environmental
relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) is greater than
100 percent), but not with respect to water. In Sausen
et al. (1998), the use of ECMWF reanalysis data
required a contrail parameterization to compute contrail
coverage since the RHI in the ECMWF forecast model
rarely exceed 100 percent. The RUC-2 model contains
a more sophisticated cloud and moisture scheme that
allows for ice-supersaturation. Assuming that the RUC-
2 upper tropospheric moisture variables are accurate,
we can follow a much simpler statistical evaluation of
potential contrail frequency. For each 1°×1° grid
location where the criterion for persistent contrails
occurs at any level from 400 hPa to 150 hPa, a
persistence indicator value is given a value of 1. The
indicator value equals zero when none of the levels
satisfies the persistence criterion. The frequency of
potential contrail frequency over a time period becomes
simply the frequency of the persistence indicator.
www-pm.larc.nasa.gov...
The threshold was determined by comparing the RUC RHI fields to satellite images of contrail and cirrus distributions using the RUC level having the greatest RHI values in the 150-350 hPa range. Figure 1 shows an example of contrails forming in heavy air traffic over the northeastern USA during 18 November 2001. The leading line of contrails in the Terra MODIS 11-12 µm brightness temperature difference image is located in east central Pennsylvania and New York (Fig. 1a). Contrails and cirrus cover most of the image west of that line. Comparison of the 225-hPa RHI contours (Fig. 1b) with the contrails indicate that few contrails formed over areas with RHI < 80%. This value is slightly less than the 85% found by Duda et al. (2003) for a different day. Comparison of the isolated contrails from 12 September yield a different threshold as expected since the RUC alters the humidity field from the measured values as noted earlier. Figure 2a shows a single, but broken linear contrail over Ohio and Pennsylvania at 1108 UTC, 12 September 2001. Cirrus clouds are evident
in northern and southern Ohio as well as northeastern Pennsylvania.
www-pm.larc.nasa.gov...
The model humidity at upper levels of the atmosphere is often too low, reflecting the current biases known to exist in our measurement system. Persistent contrails require a relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) that exceeds 100%. We know that contrails are sometimes observed in areas where estimates of the RHI are less than 100%. The existence of contrails in those locations highlights the "dry-bias" in the humidity fields.
Because the input data do not perfectly characterize the meteorological conditions, the diagnoses of persistent contrail conditions are only estimates and will not detect all of the areas where persistent contrails will form and may also add areas of formation that do not exist. All estimates of persistent contrail formation conditions are based on a modified Appleman curve using three different engine propulsion efficiencies. To give some idea of where contrails may form, but are not diagnosed, we have included information about RHI for values above 70% for single-level plots.
The relative humidity data from the RUC 40km model are suspect since 18 April, 2002. Therefore, all contrail forecasts since April 18, 2002 are suspect.To obtain a better estimate of potential contrail formation, examine the 'Individual level (mb)' results. Select a pressure value between 200 and 250 mb for the best estimate. Relative humidity values above 80% are good indicators of contrails in the new RUC data. You can use any pressure level , but the large values may be too warm for contrail formation.
www-pm.larc.nasa.gov/sass/contrail_forecast/contrail_prediction.html
To persist, contrails and cirrus require RHI > 100%. Because of negative biases in the relative humidity measured at cold temperatures (Miloshevich et al. 1999), RHI infrequently exceeds 100% in the USA radiosonde record. Furthermore, the RUC model adjusts and smoothes the RHI field so that it differs from the radiosonde measurements. While the older version of the RUC used here (discontinued 18 April 2002) yields RHI > 100% more often than the radiosondes, it is still biased low. Thus, it is necessary to increase the RHI from radiosonde measurements for T < 0°C or set an artificially low value of RHIt.
www-pm.larc.nasa.gov...
Contrail formation typically occurs in the upper Troposphere between nine and twelve kilometers is height with temperatures ranging between -35ƒC and -55ƒC (Jensen e. al. 1998, Schrader 1997). Most contrails last on the order of seconds to a few minutes and only a small minority will last for hours as in the contrails photographed (Jensen et. al. 1998). A newly formed contrail will be approximately one kilometer wide and one-half a kilometer tall. As a contrail evolves, it grows greatly in the horizontal plane sometimes extending over 20 kilometers in width (Spinhirne et al. 1998). Examples of this horizontal evolution is shown in the photograph. Contrails can also be 100ís of kilometers long given the right atmospheric conditions and a plane on a steady course.
Long lasting contrails like the ones observed usually occur in parts of the sky that have preexisting patches of cirrus clouds. Since the cirrus clouds are formed of ice crystals like the contrails, cirrus clouds in a region of the sky suggests supersaturation with respect to ice and sufficient heterogeneous nuclei for ice crystals to form (Jenson et al. 1998). The GOES-8 satellite photographs, Figure 3 and Figure 4, taken at approximately at the same time as the contrails were present shows significant cirrus clouds around the Norman area providing a condition necessary for contrail persistence.
students.ou.edu...
Keeping these caveats in mind, the following major results have been obtained from the model simulations described in this paper.
* Long-lived contrails cannot be explained by the amount of water emitted by the aircraft. Although we have not performed a simulation in an atmosphere that is subsaturated with respect to ice, it is quite obvious (in comparing results from runs 3 and 8) that persistent contrails can only form in an atmosphere that is supersaturated with respect to ice.
ams.allenpress.com...(1998)055%3C0796:LESOC%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Minnus said that contrails are formed in air below -39 Celsius when the air is supersaturated with ice.
Due to the physical structure of ice, the humidity level actually has to be higher, about 150 percent humidity level, than it would be for the air to be supersaturated with water.
"The exhaust (jet engine) injects a lot of water into the air," Minnus said.
"The water droplets immediately freeze and you wind up with a contrail."
Minnus said once the contrail is formed in supersaturated air, larger ice particles become nuclei and begin to grow, collecting other ice particles from the surrounding air.
As the particles get heavier, they begin to fall out of the contrail, spreading it vertically, wind shear spreads the contrail horizontally as it continues to collect ice from the atmosphere.
www.journalnet.com...
Theory: Relative Humidity (RH) is the amount of water in the air compared to how much water the air can hold. Temperature decreases higher in the atmosphere. Colder air can hold less water than warm air. If the air holds about the same amount of water at a higher and lower level altitude, the higher altitude should have greater relative humidity, because the ratio of water to the amount the air can hold would be greater. Clouds can also effect the relative humidity readings. Clouds add moisture to the air, which increases the relative humidity. However, most clouds only reach the altitude of 18,288, so clouds should not affect the readings taken above that elevation. Clouds under 3,048 meters produce little or no precipitation, which means that they are not as dense and should have very little effect on the RH.
www.physics.umt.edu...
The conclusion of a paper might be wrong. But why would hundreds of scientists write papers describing and studying a non existent phenomena?
Surely they couldn't all have been on '___'?
Accept it: persistent contrails are real and have been studied for decades. Thus the idea that only started appearing in the 1990 is the real myth.
An expert is someone who is acknowledged as such by his peers.
* Arrhenius (ion chemistry)
* Alfven, Hans (galaxy-scale plasma dynamics)
* Baird, John L. (television camera)
* Bakker, Robert (fast, warm-blooded dinosaurs)
* Chandrasekhar, Subrahmanyan (black holes in 1930)
* Chladni, Ernst (meteorites in 1800)
* Doppler (optical Doppler effect)
* Folk, Robert L. (existence and importance of nanobacteria)
* Galvani (bioelectricity)
* Harvey, William (circulation of blood, 1628)
* Krebs (ATP energy, Krebs cycle)
* Galileo (supported the Copernican viewpoint)
* Gauss, Karl F. (nonEuclidean geometery)
* Binning/Roher/Gimzewski (scanning-tunneling microscope)
* Goddard, Robert (rocket-powered space ships)
* Goethe (Land color theory)
* Gold, Thomas (deep non-biological petroleum deposits)
* Gold, Thomas (deep mine bacteria)
* Lister, J (sterilizing)
* Margulis, Lynn (endosymbiotic organelles)
* Mayer, Julius R. (The Law of Conservation of Energy)
* Marshall, B (ulcers caused by bacteria, helicobacter pylori)
* McClintlock, Barbara (mobile genetic elements, "jumping genes"transposons)
* Newlands, J. (pre-Mendeleev periodic table)
* Nottebohm, F. (neurogenesis: brains can grow neurons)
* Ohm, George S. (Ohm's Law)
* Ovshinsky, Stanford R. (amorphous semiconductor devices)
* Pasteur, Louis (germ theory of disease)
* Prusiner, Stanley (existence of prions, 1982)
* Rous, Peyton (viruses cause cancer)
* Semmelweis, I. (surgeons wash hands, puerperal fever )
* Tesla, Nikola (Earth electrical resonance, "Schumann" resonance)
* Tesla, Nikola (brushless AC motor)
* J H van't Hoff (molecules are 3D)
* Warren, Warren S (flaw in MRI theory)
* Wegener, Alfred (continental drift)
* Wright, Wilbur & Orville (flying machines)
* Zwicky, Fritz (existence of dark matter, 1933)
* Zweig, George (quark theory)
* Ball lightning (lacking a theory, it was long dismissed as retinal afterimages)
* Catastrophism (ridicule of rapid Earth changes, asteroid mass extinctions)
* Child abuse (before 1950, doctors were mystified by "spontaneous" childhood bruising)
* Cooperation or altruism between animals (versus Evolution's required competition)
* Instantaneous meteor noises (evidence rejected because sound should be delayed by distance)
* Mind-body connection (psychoneuroimmunology, doctors ridiculed any emotional basis for disease)
* Perceptrons (later vindicated as Neural Networks)
* Permanent magnet levitation ("Levitron" shouldn't have worked)
www.amasci.com...
In 1995, a TV film was shown on both sides of the Atlantic entitled Too Close to the Sun, dealing with the highly controversial subject of cold fusion. The film was admirably balanced and included interviews with both experimenters and 'skeptics'. Halfway through, the film showed an interview subject who is a distinguished senior American physicist from an equally distinguished American research institution. There's nothing unusual about such an appearance -- except that this scientist appeared in silhouette, his identity disguised.
Remember, this was not "60 Minutes" but a science programme, and he was no Cosa Nostra bag man but a professional scientist. He was concerned that if his institution discovered he had been spending research funds on a forbidden subject like cold fusion, then his research grant, or even his tenure, might be in jeopardy.
Sadly, as explained in these pages, his fears have been fully justified by recent events:-
* Eric Laithwaite became a 'non-person' after he addressed the Royal Society on anti-gravity.
* Forrest Mims lost his Scientific American job after telling the editor he didn't believe in Darwinism.
* Jacques Benveniste was dismissed by his Institute for investigating homeopathy.
Warwick Collins's biology career ended when be publicly identified a flaw in Darwinist theory.
* Robert Jahn was demoted by Princeton for investigating paranormal phenomena in the lab.
* The Times Higher Education Supplement commissioned an article criticising Darwinism but censored it following intervention by Richard Dawkins.
www.alternativescience.com...
What's the point of this straw man argument anyway? To suggest that we shouldn't listen to, or believe anything experts tell us? That the world is flat after all?
So, because the peer review process is falwed, which should consider any research paper mentioning persistent contrails as dubious - after all, the peer review process may have missed the fact that the authors were studying an fictional non existent phenomena. Is that right?
And I've presented papers showing that such persistent contrails are a well discussed and observed phenomena.
I guess you're going to trust and believe your interpretation of your sources, as I will mine.
Oi! I'm an amateur
Perhaps because those agencies, or people in them, are not so well versed in meteorology as meteorologists are - and thus made generalisations without being aware that they were slightly misleading.
Or, in the specific cases you gave, because there was no need within the context of the subject of those webpages to explain persistent contrails.
I think they could have been worded better. But I doubt whoever wrote them ever thought they'd be used in support of chemtrails!
Now, let's cut to the chase Stellar:
Do you accept that persistent contrails, occasionally spreading out into sheets of cirrus cloud - as chemtrails are described as doing - have been observed, studied and photographed for several decades?
And if not, what might convince you to change your mind?
No doubts about that as evident by the introduction of the "Space preservation act of 2001" …… A previous poster mentioned that this bill was 'speculative' but since it's third incarnation it's now being co-sponsored by another 40 odd senators i don't think that can be called accurate any longer.
we do have a date when persistent contrails become something that occurred regularly enough to investigate properly.
One aspect of weather pollution in the atmosphere is the generation of contrails. The spreading out of jet contrails into extensive cirrus sheets is a familiar sight. Often, when persistent conditions exist from 25,000 to 40,000ft, several long conbtrails increase in number and gradually merge into an almost solid interlaced sheet
So according to this source it's not something that occurred regularly, or at all before January ( oddly specific) 1987, ( even more 'coincidentally' when the EPA first changed particle pollution specifications.
Because they are given grants to do extremely specific research? What would you do if you grant basically laid out what you are supposed to find evidence for?
the volume of such trails today are clearly inconsistent with what we know about atmospheric conditions.
Originally posted by Zaphod58
The Space Preservation Act was written by a group that wants to completely do away with weapons of all sorts,
thinking that by giving up our weapons everyone else will do the same and we'll all suddenly live in peace and harmony.
The first time they tried to pass it, Denis Kuchinich (sp?) didn't even bother to READ it before he introduced it to Congress.
I posted the information about the bill and the group in another thread a few months ago.
So what really happened? In a nutshell, Kucinich did not write the bill (or read it, until too late), the focus of the bill is nothing to do with chemtrails, it was written by UFO enthusiasts trying to: A) nullify a conspiracy by the “military-industrial complex”, B) allow the use of suppressed alien technology for free energy, and C) avoid accidentally shooting down or scaring away visiting aliens. They listed a bunch of weird weapons, including mind control, tectonic weapons and (very briefly) chemtrails. The bill was re-written several time in less unusual language to give it chance of passing, but ultimately fizzled in committee.
The initial version of the act is the only one that makes mention of “exotic weapons systems”, listing several technologies that will be familiar to conspiracy theorists:
(i) electronic, psychotronic, or information weapons;
(ii) chemtrails;
(iii) high altitude ultra low frequency weapons systems;
(iv) plasma, electromagnetic, sonic, or ultrasonic weapons;
(v) laser weapons systems;
(vi) strategic, theater, tactical, or extraterrestrial weapons; and
(vii) chemical, biological, environmental, climate, or tectonic weapons.
Yes, it even includes “extraterrestrial weapons”, meaning weapons created by aliens (or created from alien technology from crashed flying saucers at Roswell), as well as psychotronic (mind control) weapons. Yet somehow “chemtrails” gets all the attention here.
So what’s Kucinich’s involvement in this? It’s difficult to say. Kucinich is anti-war, so perhaps that’s his motivation. He does have a lot of new-age, UFO-believing, friends, but he’s also running for president. When he was made aware of the nature of the “exotic weapons” language in the bill, it was re-written, and when questioned about it, he said
“I’m not into that. Understand me. When I found out that was in there, I said, ‘Look, I’m not interested in going there.’”
Kucinich’s motivations are perhaps revealed by his speech to the house on May 18th, 2005, introducing a newer version of the bill:
“What has happened to our country? Why are we projecting fear and paranoia to such heights? Have we so lost our way and our faith that we are prepared to transform the heavens into hell? If the kingdom and the will of God is to be done on earth as it is in heaven, what is to happen when the United States takes nuclear fire up to the gates of heaven?
“Such an offense against humanity could bring the wrath of God upon this nation.”
Originally posted by stompk
reply to post by StellarX
StellarX, thank you.
That post cannot be argued with, as bad as Essan, the gov disinformation agent, wants us to believe otherwise.
Kudos.
Originally posted by Alexander the o.k.
One question the 'contrailers' fail to ever answer adequately is, how can the tropospheric conditions alter themselves so drastically, as to allow for 'contrails' to form only for a couple of hours, and only for the jets that are flying very specific patterns, which are NOT normal air traffic patterns,
and then revert to 'normal' so that all subsequent air traffic leaves no 'contrails'?
Originally posted by AllSeeingI
Originally posted by stompk
That post cannot be argued with, as bad as Essan, the gov disinformation agent, wants us to believe otherwise.
Kudos.
My gut tells me hes not the only one operating on this site.
Originally posted by stompk
as bad as Essan, the gov disinformation agent, wants us to believe otherwise.
Originally posted by Essan
Reminds me - I must change that to read Unpaid US Govt Disinformation Agent
Originally posted by stompk
OK, now it's getting obvious.
Um, could someone explain how they keep f-18's and other military fighting aircraft from leaving contrails, since this would be a dead giveaway.
We seem to be accepting the info that contrails can occur at all altitudes, which is almost impossible, according to physics. A little fact that seems to be easily overlooked
The efforts gone into debunking this is just as suspicious as the activity itself.
1982, was the year my father suddenly got cancer and died. Coincedence?
There are no coincedences.
They've been experimenting with this since 1979. Now, a bunch of people just 60 miles south of here have Whooping Cough.
Weren't we vaccinated for that.
Originally posted by stompk
OK, now it's getting obvious.
Um, could someone explain how they keep f-18's and other military fighting aircraft from leaving contrails, since this would be a dead giveaway.
We seem to be accepting the info that contrails can occur at all altitudes, which is almost impossible, according to physics. A little fact that seems to be easily overlooked
The efforts gone into debunking this is just as suspicious as the activity itself.
As for where do I live. I tell you exactly. Steamboat Springs, CO, USA
They've been experimenting with this since 1979. Now, a bunch of people just 60 miles south of here have Whooping Cough.
Weren't we vaccinated for that.
The mean hourly, monthly, and annual frequencies of daytime contrail occurrence are
estimated using 2 yr of observations from surface observers at military installations scattered over the continental
United States. During both years, persistent contrails are most prevalent in the winter and early spring and are
seen least often during the summer. They co-occur with cirrus clouds 85% of the time. The annual mean persistent
contrail frequencies in unobscured skies dropped from 0.152 during 1993–94 to 0.124 in 1998–99 despite a rise
in air traffic