Dangerous Hurricane Dean..UPDATES

Originally posted by djohnsto77
Yeah I know, but it's pretty amazing how much all of the models are in agreement now.
Of course they could all be wrong.

They were before with Hurricane Floyd about 7 years ago, it keep moving west towards the coast of Florida and for about 24 hour they said it would turn north, it never did, then they all changes it and decied it was going to hit florida, and then it turn on a dime 90 degree and went north to Carolina's They dont know whats going on, its a guess, once it gets near the gulf we will see what happens.

The latest reports indicate that Dean will hit Mexico and Cancun looks like a big target. IMO it is still too early to tell. This storm is huge and my hope is it breaks up cause anything in it's path is in trouble.

200 mph winds possible? Would that be some kind of record?

I really feel for the people in Jamaica. Dean is going to trash that island. The last time I was in the Bahamas ( June 2006) I got to spend some time with the locals and we talked about the hurricanes that had hit the island I was at. It was a natural topic of conversation cause the damage was still everywhere and some of the hotels were still closed as well as one of the market areas. Hearing what these people went through was just unreal. The flooding, no electricity or water for a month, I can't even imagine. And what they can do? They are on an island so where do go?

Just in: Dean's eye is expected to be directly over Jamaica. No word about south side or north side of the island, but MSNBC reported they are moving all the people to shelters. No specifics so I guess I will have to do a little digging to find out what is going on.

My mom is in Jamaica, I pray she will be safe. It sucks not being there for her at this time but I ask that you who read this say a little prayer for her and my little country, thanks. After the peru earthquake people are still reeling and now another disaster...

Hi all

Just saw this at my dutch news page.




Hurricane Dean will rush to Texas after hitting Jamaica and Yucatan next week!
frontpage.fok.nl...
They even compare it in strenght with Katrina

Nando out!

reply to post by Elijio


I feel for you, I really do. I was not trying to make you fearful and I hope you realize that. Please keep in mind I am no expert on hurricanes, it is merely my opinion. I wish you the best, I can only imagine how you must feel. I would be more than happy to say a prayer for you.

Best Wishes,


Section8

The latest forecast track that I saw on TWC takes the eye just south of Jamaica, on the Jamaica radio plenty of calls from people around the world giving prayers and wishes to the islanders. I have to say that the radio broadcast and the emergency information is excellent IMO, last night they even helped some distressed callers and pointed them in the right direction for assistance.

There was much discussion on the importance to remain calm in this frightening storm's path. A big thumbs up to the radio station.

This is the 0800 update on Hurricane Dean from NOAA

UPDATE 0800 AM EDT

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
295 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING
THE CENTER OF DEAN SHORTLY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE
REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...74.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

Originally posted by TheBandit795
Hurricane Dean is over 200 miles away from us her at Aruba today, but there were still visible effects. The tradewinds changed direction and the sea became very rough.

Check out this video from this morning. I've heard it's going to be even rougher tomorrow, so I might check it out.

Holy cow! I've had this terrible feeling about this hurricane. It's just so strong and has so much warm water to keep it building. I have had fear for Jamaica and the Yucatan and then Texas and Louisiana...but it wasn't until I saw this video that the severity of the situation hit home for me. From 200 miles away this thing is showing awesome power. Having been to Aruba and knowing what the ocean looks like from the beach - this is drastically different. It's frighteningly different! O_O

My prayers to all those in the path of this monster.

Its not that Katrina had a lot of strength because some of the worst affected places only received cat 1 force winds. It was the levvis that broke and allowed it to be flooded..Only reason New Orleans took such a hit. It it would not have broke, today there would be no one discussing it.

And there have been many hurricanes that have made complete u turns to Miami, but i am not worried about that now. It looks like it will turn up and hit Texas though. Also did anyone see the size of the typhoon that hit somewhere in Asia i think it was Japan.

Originally posted by rhombus24
Its not that Katrina had a lot of strength because some of the worst affected places only received cat 1 force winds. It was the levvis that broke and allowed it to be flooded..Only reason New Orleans took such a hit. It it would not have broke, today there would be no one discussing it.

You really need to do a little more research on Katrina and Mississippi before you make those claims.
No, if the levees hadnt of broken then people would be discussing the other destruction that happened in Gulfport and Biloxi. I did work in all 3 areas after Katrina and let me assure you, Biloxi was literally wiped off of the Miss map.
I had went there 1 year prior to Kat hitting for other work and when I went back in 05, I barely recognized the city.
Both cities, Biloxi and Gulfport, received much higher winds than Cat 1 as they were on the NE side of the storm.
New Orleans area also sustained a significant amount of wind damage, Slidell (east of NOLA)was heavily hit by winds as was Mandeville to the north of NOLA




[edit on 8/19/2007 by Kr0n0s]

This storm is closing in on Jamaica and still looks as though the eye will be south of the island.

From monitoring the internet radio stream, I heard that 43? fishermen have not heeded the evacuation notice and are on something they called the "keys", the radio station was asked by the authorities to broadcast a message on the air for the fishermen to please cut the locks to the gate of some military compound and take shelter there. I tried to locate the area but I am thinking it must be the island band that is south of Kingston.

They report that they are experiencing tropical storm force winds at the moment and the station is having power problems already.

My thoughts are with our neighbors to the south.

Here is the 2PM report from NOAA

NOAA

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DEAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.
EASTERN CUBA COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.1 N...76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

I will try and keep the board updated on the radio reports throughout the evening.

[edit on 2007/8/19 by JacKatMtn]

Hey all, I have been looking for a functioning webcam in Jamaica. Does anyone know of one? if you do find one, post it here.

Originally posted by Kr0n0s
Both cities, Biloxi and Gulfport, received much higher winds than Cat 1 as they were on the NE side of the storm.
New Orleans are also sustained a significant amount of wind damage, Slidell (east of NOLA)was heavily hit by winds as was Mandeville to the north of NOLA
[edit on 8/19/2007 by Kr0n0s]

Cat 3, so... you cant call it a wussy storm, but at the same time it wasn't even as strong as Charly or even close the Andrew/Camille. I feel that you're both right personally. No levee's breaching would still make the news, plenty of places got wiped out from wind damage, but I agree in his assesment that had they held the storm would have left far less of an impression in people's minds.

Originally posted by JacKatMtn
From monitoring the internet radio stream, I heard that 43? fishermen have not heeded the evacuation notice and are on something they called the "keys", the radio station was asked by the authorities to broadcast a message on the air for the fishermen to please cut the locks to the gate of some military compound and take shelter there. I tried to locate the area but I am thinking it must be the island band that is south of Kingston.

An update on the fishermen,

they called it the Pedro keys and the Jamaican coast guard facility is the one they hope these fishermen can seek shelter. A spokesman from the coast guard stated that these fishermen were asked to evacuate the keys as early as last Wednesday but their requests went unheeded.

Also for posterity I post these 2 articles concerning the US Texas preparations and the deployment of an Aeromedical Evacuation Squadron from Pope AFB to Brownsville in advance of a possible hit by hurricane Dean.

Texans preparing as Hurricane Dean draws near

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) - Some south Texas areas began taking precautions as Category 4 Hurricane Dean followed a course toward the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico, with the Texas coast a possible target.

Residents of Brownsville were urged to voluntarily evacuate an area near the Mexico border on Sunday as a hurricane watch was issued for part of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

The Texas Youth Commission had started evacuating nearly 270 inmates and staff members from its Evins facility in Edinburg. They were being transferred to another facility 400 miles north in Brownwood, according to Gov. Rick Perry's office.

Pope aerovac squadron deploys for Hurricane Dean

8/19/2007 - POPE AIR FORCE BASE, N.C. (AFPN) -- More than 40 43rd Aeromedical Evacuation Squadron Airmen deployed at 11:30 a.m. Aug. 19 to Brownsville, Texas, to set up a Mobile Aeromedical Staging Facility at the Brownsville airport in support of Hurricane Dean evacuations.

The team left on a C-17 Globemaster III from Charleston AFB, S.C. Approximately 10 more 43rd AES members are scheduled to depart later Aug. 19 on a mission currently being scheduled.

On the surface with the projected models taking the storm on a path to miss the US, some will probably call this overcautious and unnecessary,
and say it is overreaction in the aftermath of Katrina, I find myself thinking this to some extent, but if an error must occur, I would much rather it err in this direction than what we have seen in the past.

Either way, criticisms of the response were to be expected, it is a no win situation for those in charge of these things.

As far as the streaming radio, it is having increasing transmission problems though for the most part still doing a good job at trying to keep things calm as the hurricane makes it's path through the island.

cnn have a stream

www.cnn.com...

here you go, remember that the island turned of the electricity.

reply to post by andy1033


Cool, thanks andy. Have you watched any of the footage from that link?
I was just wondering if it was any good but ill check it out right now.. ty

Well latest image, looks like it must be just there now.



[edit on 8/19/2007 by andy1033]

Here's another one. This time on the north coast of Aruba yesterday (which is usually rougher than the south coast). Like I said. Dean was more than 200 miles away at the time.

Indy has lots of satellite feeds on his site. Check it out.

ClimatePatrol.com - Satellite Images

No because look at the us map the only city I see in mississpii is New Orleans. Major cities get attention not rundown already places like Biloxi.

Originally posted by rhombus24
No because look at the us map the only city I see in mississpii is New Orleans. Major cities get attention not rundown already places like Biloxi.

babe...new orleans is in louisana....