Dangerous Hurricane Dean..UPDATES

Its a cat 5 now at 160mph. This is going to be like Andrew one that gets stronger in the night right before landfall, I feel sorry for the people down there.

Originally posted by Sky watcher
Its a cat 5 now at 160mph.

What's your source for that?

From the latest NHC advisories and vortex data messages I don't yet see Cat 5, although the latest NHC advisory was just 1 mph short at 155 MPH.

EDIT:

Listening to FOX News, and they're saying it's 160 MPH and Cat 5, so I guess you're right. I don't see any confirmation on the NHC site though.

Edit Again:

Here it is:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH...MAKING DEAN A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

[edit on 8/20/2007 by djohnsto77]

It is a cat 5 with 160 mph winds and predicted to get stronger.

Is anyone familiar with the area where the eye is going to hit?

Any significant population there?



[edit on 8/20/2007 by djohnsto77]

Upgraded !

000
wtnt64 knhc 210034
tcuat4
hurricane dean tropical cyclone update
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al042007
835 pm ast mon aug 20 2007


data from the air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft currently
investigating hurricane dean indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to 160 mph...making dean a potentially catastrophic
category five hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale.

$$
forecaster knabb

My source is the weather channel. It looks like it may be a port of some kind and it looks like the whole coast there is just major tourist area.

It will be interesting to see what the 11pm advisory shows as it appears that Dean is still strengthening. The last vortex message that was posted indicated the maximum flight level winds were 162kts. Thats 168mph. Don't know if they are going to hold it at 160 or up it to 165 or even 170mph.

Everyone say a prayer for the kind, peaceful people of the Yucatan. This is just terrible terrible news. Our good friend Carlos has a palapas bar in Playa del Carmen and we fear for his life and all the lives of his neighbors.

I'm curious why the NHC advisories aren't matching up to their formulas. With a 162kt flight level wind the 11pm advisory should have indicated at least 165mph sustained winds and if they round the numbers it would be 170mph. I for one don't their their formula for figuring wind speeds is correct and that may be part of the reason why they have deviated from normal with these latest observations since the hurricane is approaching observation stations that could provide conflicting reports.

Ok this isn't good news for people along the Belize/Mexico border. I am posting two images from the Dvorak set. These show nicely storm intensity. In the first image you'll see a hint of grey showing up around the eye of the storm. This color has just recently made an appearance. These storms are absolutely horrible. Thirty minutes later the area has expanded even more. There is absolutely no doubt that this storm is still intensifying.

0215 UTC


0245 UTC


Here is a Dvorak loop of 20 frames up until the 0245 UTC time so you can see how this storm has evolved.

www.climatepatrol.com...

That image is absolutely horrifying....it looks like something straight from hell. I hope the people in it's path chose to heed the warnings and leave town, unfortunately I am certain that many did not.

I lived through Andrew and Hurricane Fran and it is not a pleasant feeling. This storm looks worse than both of them put togeher at a cat 5. If this storm decides to head north towards Texas we are facing a storm at least as bad as Katrina if not far worse.

Well, here is the latest info on Dean, one more update should come out before it makes landfall near Chetumal, Mexico.
Still a 160 mph Category 5 Hurricane with the barometric pressure at 914, according to Dr Masters on the weather underground site, we can expect it to keep strengthening, right up until landfall.
It is still moving in a westward direction at about 20 mph and it is possible that it could enter the Gulf as a Category 2 before making landfall, again in Mexico.

Here is a really cool IR Radar Image of it, taken just under 2 hours ago, the dark red color around the eye is where the strongest, hurricane strength winds are and as you can see, it is a pretty wide area.
Also, here is a link to an animated loop of it approaching the Yucatan.
Animated loop of hurricane dean




Source

Hurricane Dean has intensified into the first Category 5 storm in the Atlantic since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. The latest Hurricane Hunter fix at 8:34pm EDT found 185 mph winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet, which corresponds to surface winds of 160 mph. The pressure had dropped to 914 mb, and I expect Dean will strengthen right up until landfall. Landfall is expected near Chetumal, Mexico, just after midnight local time. Dean will be a tremendously destructive storm for southern Mexico. Dean is powerful enough to be able to survive the crossing of the Yucatan as a Category 2 hurricane, and hurricane advisories have been posted for cities on the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The only hurricanes on record that survived crossing this portion of the Yucatan and maintaining hurricane intensity were Hurricane Roxanne of 1995, which hit just south of Cozumel as a Category 3, and emerged near Campeche as a Category 1; and Hurricane Janet of 1955, which hit near Chetumal as a Category 5 storm, then weakened to a Category 2 storm when it popped out into the Gulf of Mexico south of Campeche. We can expect Dean will carve out a path of great destruction all the way across the Yucatan Peninsula, then potentially re-intensify before hitting Mexico again along the Gulf Coast in the Bay of Campeche.

[edit on 8/21/2007 by Kr0n0s]

Wow, check out this monster!

There is something fishy going on with the latest updates. 160mph at 11pm was conservative based on recon reports. Since 11pm the satellite signature showed signs of additional strengthening. The pressure was lowered to 911mb but they held the winds the same. I'm wondering if the update was incomplete because as I type this message the hurricane hunter is flying around the center of the storm still picking up observations. The latest data sent from the hunter indicated a low of 905mb. Doubt the NHC will report it.

Dean is very angry. He's gonna hit hard and level everything in his path

Originally posted by Indy
There is something fishy going on with the latest updates. 160mph at 11pm was conservative based on recon reports. Since 11pm the satellite signature showed signs of additional strengthening. The pressure was lowered to 911mb but they held the winds the same.

Be careful, a bit of teh storm is over land now and the storm should begin to lose strength, the eye is still gaining streangth but the overall hurricane is starting to waeking as it hits the coast.

Wow, I got so wrapped up in reading a thread on here, from page 1 to page 12 or so, turned out to be a hoax lol, but I forgot to check on the storms progress.
From this satellite image that is time stamped about half an hour ago, it appears like the northern edge of Deans eye is just offshore right now and should be making landfall any minute, if it hadnt already done so.
Like the poster above me stated, Dean will start losing steam very quickly now and depending on how mountainous the region is will determine at how strong he is when it re-emerges in the Gulf a few hours from now..
Side note here:
I just had a little squall blow in from the Gulf, will probably only last a few minutes and not related to Dean.
Anyway, I looked over at the window at the same time I saw a large blue flash through the blinds and a huuuge crash of thunder, then my laptop went to battery power but the power was only out for about 10 seconds..

Anyway, there wont be much to say about Dean until it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, after that well see how much energy it haves left and if its movement shifts any other direction..

peace

Hurrican Dean as seen from the Shuttle/ISS.

reply to post by sardion2000


already been posted sardion
its a few pages back but I posted it last night.

The eye has now hit Mexico.,.

Hurricane Dean has begun to lash Mexico's Caribbean coast, with heavy rain and howling winds battering beach resorts where thousands of tourists are huddling in shelters.

"It is a hugely destructive storm - you don't see Category Five hurricanes every day," said Sky News weather presenter Isobel Lang.

news.sky.com...


Seems it may start to lose strength but then rebuild up again,

Right now its a level 5,