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One of the most fundamental principles of reasoning and investigation is what has come to be known as Occam's Razor. Named after the 14th century logician William of Occam, it is the principle which favors the least complicated of two or more possible explanations for an observation. Needless to say, most conspiracy theories don't satisfy this rule.
In practice, Occam's Razor is used to cut away elements of theories which cannot be observed. For example, Einstein described space-time in the special theory of relativity. Lorentz had theorized that space-time fluctuations are caused by motion through the "ether". However, Lorentz's ether cannot be observed even though his equations produce the same results as Einstein's, so it represents an unnecessarily complicated model. It doesn't prove Einstein right and Lorentz wrong, but because there's a whole lot less baggage to Einstein's model, it's more likely to be correct given the current set of observations.
Conspiracy theories generally entail the opposite of Occam's Razor. That is, when explaining observations, the conspirators often propose more complicated explanations than the commonly believed story. Their conclusions often require us to believe in additional postulated events or factors for which there is seldom any direct proof. Occam's Razor clearly requires us to eliminate candidate explanations which imply the existence of unobserved phenomenon.
Both NASA and the conspiracists offer explanations which fit the observable phenomena. But some Apollo conspiracy theories require us to believe in things like NASA death squads and top-secret soundstages in remote locations. There is no direct evidence for either of those. The possibility that these things -- if they existed -- might explain the conspiracists' observations is not proof that those things exist.
Originally posted by yeti101
sorry , doesnt convince me
Originally posted by Karilla
Great thread, MikeSingh, particularly bringing up the tether incident.
Originally posted by jhamende
This is my first post, please don't flame. In regards to Lost_mind's comment about Occams razor. Applying Occam's razor to many sightings and events leads me to believe that the event did occur.
Suppose I have a cat. One night, I leave out a saucer of milk, and in the morning the milk has gone. No one saw who or what drank the milk. Lets say there are two possibilities:
The cat drank it
or
The milk fairy drank it
Occam tells us to reject option 2. This is because option 2 requires us to invent an unnecessary entity - the milk fairy. It is an invention because we have no proof that the milk fairy exists. And it is unnecessary because there is a plausible explanation that does not require the milk fairy - the cat. (We know he exists.)
Note: we haven't proven that the cat drank the milk. Or disproven the milk fairy option. Strictly speaking, we keep an open mind about both options. But Occam says that if you insist it could be the milk fairy, you have invented an unnecessary entity. And why would you do that?
Note also that strictly speaking, both solutions are equally simple. The cat hypothesis is only simpler in that you haven't had to invent a new, unproven entity. Also note that there are additional options that we could choose if we abandon Occam. For example, it could have been ghosts, or aliens, or the boogieman or Santa Claus. Why choose one of these over the others when there is an equal lack of proof for any of them?
Occam Applied
Occam can be applied to a myriad of supposed paranormal events, including ghosts, psychics, UFOs, people who talk with the dead, reincarnation, the soul, spoon benders, near death and out of body experiences. Usually, the paranormal explanation for these phenomena cannot be disproven, and this is often given as the reason we should consider the paranormal explanation. But Occam says go with the natural explanation for now, until any new evidence challenges it. But if there is a natural explanation and you believe, without proof, that the paranormal one is possible, you are inventing the milk fairy.
Originally posted by mikesingh
Originally posted by yeti101
sorry , doesnt convince me
What will? Perhaps an alien handshake? Or a walk in the park with a blond Andromedian? Sorry, if that's the evidence you want, it isn't possible.
Even after France is making government UFO files public followed by Mexico, Brazil and UK, you still need convincing that UFOs are a hoax? Isn't that damning evidence that UFOs are a reality and that we've been taken for a ride for the past 60 years by these same governments who now want to 'come clean'? What is the hidden agenda behind this graduated disclosure?
Originally posted by Mr Mota
The incident named "The Battle of Los Angeles" has pictures...and a short video floating around somewhere on the internet. Has 100's of witnesses and no explanation.
February 26, 1942....So much ammunition was used to try and shoot this thing down....to the point where civilians were injured by our own AA shells falling down on them.
65 years ago...imagine that. This is one that makes me wonder.
Originally posted by mikesingh
The following personnel need to be put into the mental asylum for claiming to have seen UFOs. They should be branded as liars or should have been sent for psychiatric treatment. They should also be charged for attempting to spread disinformation and influencing a gullible public that UFOs from other extraterrestrial civilizations are a fact.
.........
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Originally posted by amongus
No offense Mike, but what about this thread is bringing new evidence to ANY of the "damning" material you posted?