Situation X

This is all very good advice. Does anyone know of, or can recommend a good book on survivalism?

Do you mean as a "lifestyle" book, or a cut-and-dry, no-B.S. guide?

The latest editions of the US Army and SAS Survival Guides are the best, IMHO.

Your right PDF files on the subject are all over the place. some of the ones I found were full of not only wrong but down right dangerous information, especially the ones related to Bugging out. Just be careful. The wrong information can and does kill. Triple check everything.

Originally posted by stanstheman
At one point would I pull them from school? I mean do I wait for a confirmed human 2 human transmission in California or is it too late by then?

This is a good question, and unfortunately one of the most difficult.

My group keeps each other up to date on potential threats, and then basically we just make individual decisions based on hypotheticals. For instance, the weekend NK was doing the nuke test, beforehand I let the group know the possible outcomes (like people panicking or making a run for the stores) and recommended a couple of basic preps (like storing some water, and a couple days worth of food, just in case). As it turns out, nothing happened, but we all were ready to sit at home for a couple of days if people freaked out and mobbed the stores.

As for pulling the children from school... I have no idea. By the time you hear about the first cases of a pandemic, it will have already spread for as long as its incubation period, which could be days or weeks, which in this world means -anywhere-...

Trust your instinct, that's the best I can offer. The almost supernatural danger sense a parent has for their offspring is something I can't even begin to put into words. If you suddenly get the impulse that they need to be pulled from school, don't wait for someone on a message board to verify that feeling. You can always write a note later.

Originally posted by RubberJohnny
This is all very good advice. Does anyone know of, or can recommend a good book on survivalism?

Well, it really depends on the circumstances. You could say we're actually developing our own guide, even. Considering the number of subject-matter experts, what you find here may prove to be even more in-depth and understandable than a $100 Guide to Everything from Barne's & Noble.

I'm going to try and compile a living document once we have enough material to do so. With subject matter heading and links. For now, this thread is serving as the sort of pre-document for those survival thread and web page links, and any additional miscellany that people want to add specifically regarding Situation X.

Originally posted by thelibra

This is a good question, and unfortunately one of the most difficult.

As for pulling the children from school... I have no idea. By the time you hear about the first cases of a pandemic, it will have already spread for as long as its incubation period, which could be days or weeks, which in this world means -anywhere-...

Trust your instinct, that's the best I can offer. The almost supernatural danger sense a parent has for their offspring is something I can't even begin to put into words. If you suddenly get the impulse that they need to be pulled from school, don't wait for someone on a message board to verify that feeling. You can always write a note later.

Thanks for answering my question. I had a feeling someone would say that!



My kids go to a rather "progressive" school, I'm already known as a trouble maker, because on a number of occasions I've had to remind them that I am the parent. My oldest daughter went on a camping trip with her class last week and had her teacher (who has no kids) tell her not to use the Purell another girl was handing out because it didn't work. I had to go through the whole explanation of why the teacher said that, and what he meant by that. I may have called him retarded at one point (oops!) Anyway, with this kind of mentality, and a parent population who thinks their job is SO IMPORTANT that it's okay to send a really sick kid to school, I will not wait for the school to let me know what's going on. I'll pull then the minute I think something is brewing, what the heck, they already think I'm a kook!

Originally posted by stanstheman
I'll pull then the minute I think something is brewing, what the heck, they already think I'm a kook!

Far be it for anyone to cast judgment on your pulling the kids from school, at least you're taking the time to be a parent, which is more than I can say for a lot of people out there.

However, to be honest, Bird Flu should be the least of your worries. It would not only take a hitherto undocumented leap in disease that hasn't been observed in nearly a century, but in the entire time it's been in the media, it's killed less people than the auto-accidents of any one state in one day.
I would start with preparing against the most likely scenarios to kill my offspring.

TOP TEN CAUSES OF DEATH

Dying from Heart Disease--------------6 to 1
Death from a suicide attempt---------71 to 1
Being killed in a car wreck----------81 to 1
Being killed in a hailstorm---------106 to 1
Chance that you were murdered-------197 to 1
Death from falling------------------217 to 1
Being killed by Poisoning-----------344 to 1
Death from Perscription Drugs-------358 to 1
From Hanging or Strangulation-------615 to 1
Death from broken bone------------1,000 to 1

The most likely things to kill one's offspring can be addressed by teaching them common sense, good health and eating habits, keeping them mentally fit, and making sure that any vehicle they ride in is not only safe, but driven by a safe operator. Beyond that, stuff starts getting really obscure and difficult to prevent, or so easy to prevent as to be Natural Selection if one dies from it.

More ways to die, with odds.

Stabbed or Cut to death-------------1,700 to 1
Being shot to death-----------------4,000 to 1
Dying in a boating accident---------5,000 to 1
Drowning in water-------------------8,000 to 1
Death as result of Hallucenogins----10,000 to 1
Dying while in the bath tub---------10,000 to 1
Death from Alcohol------------------12,000 to 1
Squished between 2 objects----------30,000 to 1
Death by Bee Sting------------------70,000 to 1
Fatal Elevator Ride-----------------77,000 to 1
Being killed in a Plane Crash-------116,000-25mil to 1*
Killed by a Plastic Bag-------------130,000 to 1
Dying from Operations of War--------200,000 to 1
Being killed by a Dog---------------235,000 to 1
Due to Lack of Air------------------270,000 to 1
Dying from poisonous plants---------1,200,000 to 1
Being Killed by a Tornado-----------2,000,000 to 1
Killed by falling out of Bed--------2,000,000 to 1
Being killed by Lightning-----------2,000,000 to 1
Being killed by Freezing------------3,000,000 to 1
Being killed by a Shark-------------300,000,000 to 1
Living to 116 years old-------------2,000,000,000 to 1
Being killed by space debris--------5,000,000,000 to 1

No offense, but that sounds like just about the dumbest slang term I've ever heard - bugging out. Do you mean "Leaving a location?" If so, why not just call it "evacuating?" It is both shorter in characters and denotes the true meaning of your statement, not to mention that it actaully sounds intelligent. "Bugging out" sounds like something that some drug addled college student would do when the cops knock on his door - devoid of planning or intelligent thought!

Moving on, the worst thing you could do during a crisis is "bug out". You'll dig yourself a hole that you won't likely escape very easily. "Evacuate" your immediate location ONLY if you are in imminent danger by remaining there! Your current location (Your house) is a.) familiar territory, b.) adequate shelter, c.) somewhat secure, and d.) a place where others know to look for you!

Rule number one in any catastrophe is to SHELTER IN! They teach you in survival training that the number one thing to do in crisis is to find or establish shelter. Create or remain in an area where you can avoid the elements and the element of suprise. That is why it is wise to remain in your home if at all possible. You are familiar with the layout, it's security mechanism or lack thereof, the terrain, the stores or other institutions that may provide survival tools. In addition, if you have prepared properly, all of your survival gear is already there at the ready! You now have the tactical advantage - and survival is predicated upon your ability to maintain that advantage!

Kozmo, the idea of bugging out is to leave before your shelter becomes a deathtrap. If you cannot sustain a supply of food and water in the area, for instance. The other factor is envrionmental factors: if Situation X happens to be a nuke, your home is not where you want to be much longer. Ditto hurricanes, earthquakes, or civil disturbance. What about fire?

Also, something to consider is to move on before things get bad enough to FORCE you to go.

DE

Originally posted by kozmo
No offense, but that sounds like just about the dumbest slang term I've ever heard - bugging out. Do you mean "Leaving a location?"

Unless I miss my guess, "Bug Out" is military jargon for "leaving a location, very quickly". The reason one wouldn't say evactuation, retreat, fallback, etc, is because it can mean all or none of those things, depending on the situation. Whether or not it's a stupid term is irrelevant; it's in common widespread use here in the U.S., and we have plenty of stupid slang words in our dictionary already, so one more won't hurt. If I had to hazard a guess, it probably got chosen because it's two one-syllable words that have distinctive vowell sounds that can be heard through the noise of combat when your CO is yelling it.

Originally posted by kozmo

Rule number one in any catastrophe is to SHELTER IN!

(snip)

In addition, if you have prepared properly, all of your survival gear is already there at the ready!

I don't think you'll find a serious member in these threads who would disagree with you about the importance of one's home territory. However, you could have enough food for a lifetime of hundreds of refuges, an entire forge for smithing tools, weapons, and construction materials, and have an entire field surgery kit with a trained doctor, all waiting for you back home, and it does you Jack Squat if Situation X happens when you're on the other side of the country, or, if you live in a large urban sprawl, if you're merely on the other side of town, or if a much larger, better armed and equipped force is heading towards your HQ.

Sometimes you have to get out of harm's way, sometimes you don't have the luxury of shelter or home territory, and bugging out is just as important to know as how to stockpile goods where you live.




[edit on 10/24/2006 by thelibra]

Alot of good information here. I would like to caution folks on the aspect of bugging-out. Keep in mind, any situation that is going to compel you to cut-and-run --- especially on-foot --- is going to bring with it circumstances and conditions that are going to drastically impact your exodus. Freedom of movement will likely be reduced either by environmental conditions or law enforcement (curfews and the like). The last thing you want is to be 'picked-up' and dumped with masses of panicked and under-provisioned people in some evacuation area.

For your bug-out to work:

1) You have to have a viable destination. One where your chances of survival are better than your current location and its immediate area considering ALL the necessities (water, food, shelter, security, etc.).

2) You have to have a very high probability of being able to reach that destination safely with just the equipment you can carry on your back while avoiding large groups of people. Most of them will be far less prepared than you and will want anything you have.

3) You need to have good intelligence about the current and forcast conditions at your present location, route of travel and destination.

#3 is going to be the most tricky. During any crisis that initiates serious consideration for cut-and-run, getting good information is going to be especially difficult. Situations are going to be in a state of rapid flux. You could leave your present location and hike straight into the eye of the storm with no chance of turning back. Once you get to your destination will you know where to find survival necessities or are you going to have to expose yourself hunting around for them?

There are certainly situations where cut-and-run is the best and maybe the only option. For me and my family's plan, cut-and-run is our last resort. As has been pointed out here, surviving entirely on your own is a sketchy proposition at best. Similarly, finding yourself mixed-in with evacuating hordes will be a sure disaster. Unless you are forced out (by environmental conditions or law enforcement) your best option may very well be to shelter-in-place. You have intimate knowledge of your immediate area and its resources and you have the potential to establish a cooperative plan with neighbors. Not exactly as attractive as having a well-stocked cabin far out in the wilderness next to a stream but probably closer to reality for most of us.

Originally posted by jtma508
Alot of good information here. I would like to caution folks on the aspect of bugging-out. Keep in mind, any situation that is going to compel you to cut-and-run --- especially on-foot --- is going to bring with it circumstances and conditions that are going to drastically impact your exodus.

Absolutley correct. In fact, if you see on page 1 of this thread, under "Preparations that are Free:" one of the things I heavily recommend is to have 1 fallback point that is within 2-days walk, in each of the 4 cardinal directions, and if at all possible, have a small cache at each of those 4 locations, ready to be dug up/unlocked and used. That way if you are at home and have to bug out, you know what your destination is, you've hopefully already practiced walking there, and you'll know how to get there.

The other advantage of these 4 cardinal destinations is that if you are NOT at home when Situation X happens, and you can't get back home in any fashion other than on-foot and/or through hostile environment, you will almost certainly have one of those 4 small caches you could head to first to provision up and decide if it's worth the trek home, or better to stay put at your cache, or move on.

Either scenario, you've got, at the very least, a starting destination, if not a full-fledged fallback facility (like a family farm or something).

My next post in this thread will (hopefully) be a list of Home Preparations that can be made at your primary residence to try and have finished before Situation X occurs.

And of course, as always, if anyone has content to contribute, questions to ask, comments, please post them. None of us are the end-all be-all of information, I certainly am not, but each of us has something to teach the others about surviving Situation X.

We have an option of bugging out to a family farm in Kansas but although it's a nice thought, I do not see it as a viable option. We live within 90 miles of NYC and this area of the country is so congested that the probability of getting in a car and getting to an open road in a set amount of time is fairly low. We also have an option in Vermont but so do at least 70% of the people here! The roads north will be packed. Traveling on foot won't happen since my kids are small and could not make the trip. Our option is to shelter in place or buy a boat!

Buy the boat. If you make it through whatever disaster occurs, you'll be prettymuch be stuck.

Better yet, plan to leave early. I suppose that since you're in New York State, you're in a pretty urbanized area, correct? Is a shelter out of the question?

DE

For those interested in specifically how to build a fallout/storm shelter in your back yard, I've started a thread at the link provided to discuss ideas and experience and questions regarding it. Please feel free to add your thoughts to it.

Originally posted by DeusEx
Buy the boat. If you make it through whatever disaster occurs, you'll be prettymuch be stuck.

Better yet, plan to leave early. I suppose that since you're in New York State, you're in a pretty urbanized area, correct? Is a shelter out of the question?

DE

We're in the suburbs of Connecticut. Only problem is along the coast going east, we have a nuke plant and the sub base, and along the coast to the west we have NYC. We'd have to go really close to one or the other to get out of the sound. What we need is a hovercraft so we can drive due south across the sound and then right over LI to the ocean!

We do have a shelter, a small basement room we have fortified, filled with supples, comfort items etc. My kids think it's a pantry. In the next couple of weeks we will start filling sandbags and storing them, so we can seal up doors, cover the floors above. I am fairly certain that once that is done we will have a safe shelter that will withsatnd some punishment and shield radiation. I'm lucky, DH was an Army Ranger and is on board so the work goes faster and more bases get covered. His training in invaluble.

Interesting, won't say where but my sister is an Army wife (BIL is LTC) and I have her prepping now. She has been feeling out some people on the post she's on and a few have bought places and are building shelters and storing food. Most people think they are hunting cabins but once Sis mentions prepping the truth comes out. When she started hearing it from seasoned Army guys, she took me much more seriously.

Oh and I should tell you our plan if something happens while our kids are in school. We car pool with another family. We both carry duct tape (hot pink) and sharpies. If anything happens, the first to get to the kids grabs them and writes the names of who they have with them on the duct tape and then tapes it to the stop sign in front of the school. If it's a bug out situation, the person who picks up also writes where they're headed. That way if cell phones are out, and everyone heads to the school we have a way of knowing who has whose kids and where they are. Not perfect but better than waiting for everyone to show up and divvy up children.

Originally posted by stanstheman
We're in the suburbs of Connecticut. Only problem is along the coast going east, we have a nuke plant and the sub base, and along the coast to the west we have NYC. We'd have to go really close to one or the other to get out of the sound. What we need is a hovercraft so we can drive due south across the sound and then right over LI to the ocean!

Fair enough. Right now (well, for the next four days) I'm in the burbs of Toronto, which is just across the lake from Buffalo and the hot zone of...well, of all of New York. I have to cross through Durham Region, which is the home of one nuclear plant, and there are a few others around. If I want to head north (and here, there's an unlimited north for delicious safety) I have to pass by it, prettymuch. And since the fallout might come across teh lake...I feel your pain. You're really backed into a corner.

My plan would be to head north, to the family cottage in the middle of nowhere. It's got wood chopped for about six months (yes, I did it myself). Electricity isn't a big issue, and there's a stream and some woods on the property as well. It's getting there, and staying safe en route, which presents some problems.

DE

Originally posted by stanstheman
We both carry duct tape (hot pink) and sharpies. If anything happens, the first to get to the kids grabs them and writes the names of who they have with them on the duct tape and then tapes it to the stop sign in front of the school. If it's a bug out situation, the person who picks up also writes where they're headed.

That's BRILLIANT!

May I recommend you replace the duct tape with some waterproof tape, though, as duct tape holds up for crap in the water. The idea, however, is brilliant. I'm going to add those to the list of stuff we're getting this weekend.

Originally posted by thelibra

That's BRILLIANT!

Thanks! Occasionally my kooky "security mom" brain turns out a good one! Also for those of you with kids, we keep small rubbermaid containers (with the handle on top) in each of the kids' closets. Inside is a headlamp (easier for the kids to handle), a flash light, a small kid friendly lantern, and extra batteries. On the outside of the box are those sticky glow in the dark stars. This summer when we lost power every one of my kids got to their closet and found their "emergency kit" without a problem because they glowed in the dark!

Originally posted by stanstheman
Occasionally my kooky "security mom" brain turns out a good one!

I didn't actually realize you were female, but it is very reassuring to have some in the survivalist threads. I myself was worried my wife would take me for a nutter once I started talking about our need for survival preparations, but she's been surprisingly supportive, resourceful, and has generated a few good ideas of her own. And looking back, if your husband is military, you two have most of your bases covered.

I'd actually like to know more about what "the truth" was that started coming out when you were talking to other military families about the survival preparations. Sounds like you almost related some sort of insight that hasn't been brought up yet, or was I reading it wrong?

Originally posted by stanstheman
This summer when we lost power every one of my kids got to their closet and found their "emergency kit" without a problem because they glowed in the dark!

Another really good idea, and teaches the kids the importance of a survival kit early on. How did you keep the stickers charged up?

Something I thought of right before clicking the submit button... If you somehow could put a different color over half the flashlight's bulb-guard (that flat glass or plastic disc), then you could tell from a distance, in total darkness, which child was which. Like, Jimmy would be the one with the green bulb guard, Bobby would be red, Sue would be yellow... something like that.

In fact, you could do the same for yours and your husband's flashlights. That way you wouldn't have to shine the light in each other's faces to see who was where.