Hurricanes 2006

Great news to my ears, I really didn't need Chris threatening us in Florida or anyone else. Also good news regarding the lower prediction for the season

Just 1?! Maybe those big bad hurricanes are just brewing up and getting ready for a show down?

Or maybe now the natural cycle of the Earth is going to take over. I think we might be heading into that Ice Age that we have been long over due for. The Oceans are cooling and now the land will start cooling. I think that is why many of us are experiencing these strange weather patterns. Look Out It might start getting chilly.

I don't think we will see an ice-age anytime soon. At least I hope not! Anyway after mild winters and 3 digit degree summers...I highly doubt it.

That is what is supposed to happen. The temperature will rise until it hits it peak, which is not far from now. Then over the next decade or two, we will pop right into the next Ice Age like what happened that last time.

The weather right now is not making sense. It is totally out of whack. Some places, like my house in the southeast, are getting the wettest and stormiest late summer we have ever seen. Thunderstorms seem to be showing up out of nowhere. And there seems to be no particular reason why they keep showing up either. But then we also have the hottest weather too. We shouldn't be getting rain.

So I came up with a far fetched but still workable idea. What if the cold air from the upper troposphere was somehow pushing down on the warm air beneath it, causing these really hot months of late summer. And if some spots were coming close enough to condense water vapors in the air and send them down with thunderstorm anomalies. And the stuff weighing down the upper troposphere were the CO2 and water vapor that make up the green house gases. Because after the heat and precipitation from last year, we are bound to have a lot of left over water in the air.

If there are any flukes in this idea, please point them out. I would very much appreciate it. Someone, somehow has got to explain these weird weather patterns and I am just adding to the effort.

4th Named Storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season is here:

Tropical Storm DEBBY Public Advisory

...DEBBY BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.1 WEST OR ABOUT 385
MILES...625 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TS Debby shouldn't be affecting the Caribbean, models and forecasters are predicting a recurve in the Atlantic which could have Debby potentially affecting Bermuda, but that's about it for now, so no worries for Florida at this time.

Thanks for the update WorldWatcher, I was just looking at that in the NHC site. Is it just me, or do you think when they update their predictions September 3rd that we will see a significant drop? People from different parts of the country have been telling me that fall seems to be arriving early this year. I don't know if I'm deluding myself into thinking this could be true, or if it may have some credence. What do you think?

Btw, I love your avatars!

and I am loving yours

I wouldn't make any firm guesses to the outcome of this hurricane season until after September. If the action in the Atlantic doesn't pick up in Sept, I think the remainder of the season will stay quiet. But even with that said, I still remember Wilma which devastated us in South Florida and that was an October storm.... Just one storm could have major disasterous effects, so the season doesn't have to be hyperactive to have an impact on us.

like I've said before, I'm very grateful for the reprieve and for the extra time to keep renovating my house.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Ileana has rapidly strengthened into a major category 3 hurricane. As of Wednesday morning, Ileana was located 480 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, at 17.5 north, 110.6 west.

Ileana will likely reach category 4 strength late Wednesday or early Thursday before weakening over the open eastern Pacific.

Source Accuweather

Another hurricane for the Eastern Pacific.
That list uses the "I" but things can change as the season is not over.

Just got wind of this in an email from a weather site I found to look pretty reputable since I know one of the meteorologists that participate in it.

Forget about newly-named Tropical Storm Debby, now churning west-northwestward into oblivion in the open Atlantic. The area we need to focus on today is a tropical wave near 10N 53W, about 500 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. This new wave is a threat to develop into a tropical depression later this week, once it crosses into the Caribbean. NHC has assigned this disturbance the name "Invest 97L", and has tentatively tasked the Hurricane Hunters to investigate it on Thursday afternoon. More Info

I'm giving up Debby doing anything anyhow. She's going to fade out anyhow. This will be the one I'm keeping a closer eye on. Nothing to panic about by far, just keeping the info up.

May they all meet their demise in the cold waters of the Northern Atlantic!

By the way, WorldWatcher, I especially hope they're gonna stay away from you if you're still working on your place. I finally moved back into mine a few weeks ago, so I understand the bad taste a storm could leave in your mouth at this moment. Hope all is going well down there for you!

We might have a TS Ernesto before the night is over. Stay Safe and Dry Caribbean.

Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME

This blob looks pretty good on satellite and definitely seems to be getting its act together.

That's been upgraded to TD 5

I seriouslt doubt there are going to be anymore hurricanes this year.

Niteboy82, your avatars RULE!!!

we haven't even had 1 hurricane yet and you think we done already????

imo...September and October, we're going to get to at least 10 named storms, but maybe only 2-3 Hurricanes.

I think most of the action will recurve into the Atlantic and not affect land...but that a bit of wishful thinking and wild speculation on my part.. I am still very much an amateur weather nut.

The Canadian model for TD #5 scares me, it has TD5 developing into a hurricane and heading for the Gulf...not good news for gas prices.

Worldwatcher, I'm with you, I do not like the models so far on TD #5 at all. I've been watching it like a hawk. If that gets in the gulf and keeps it's current projection, someone on the coast is going to be screwed with development.

Only time will tell, and I'm as ready as I possibly can be, which is the chore we all took on by living here. I do hope one doesn't come anywhere, but this is the start of something that will develop into something, imo.

Looking at temperatures out in the waters, I don't think that September will be a boring month. Hurricane Betsy was here in September, and that was a very ugly storm.

We'll see, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

TD5 will pass north of me tomorrow. I don't expect that much trouble from it. BUt I feel for you guys up there in FL and the gulf coast. Pray it stays weak or goes away.

you luckybandit
I heard from Trinidad, and parts had some nasty weather today.

You guys in Aruba don't get much when it comes to hurricanes do you? They tend to turn NW right before they get to the ABC islands..or so it seems to me.

Yeah usually.. The last one to hit Aruba directly was in 1954, when my parents were 2 years old. Every 5 years or so there's one that comes closeby (within 150 miles) though.

Current thoughts are that TD5 will be a CAT1 within 24 hours. And it's heading for the Gulf.

You sure about that?

All the forecast models that I have looked at, along with the storm advisories (independent and official) leave the idea that this will most likely be a tropical storm by the end of the day, possibly tomorrow. I haven't seen anything to indicate that it will be a Cat 1 within 24 hours though.

I'm using the National Hurricane Center and the weather forum blog that I had listed in a previous posting.

If you have more information though, I would appreciate a good look at it. More info the better on these things, I say.