Hurricanes 2006

well I don't know about TD5 being a hurricane in 24 hours, but as of now, I think it should already be named Ernesto. It looks pretty healthy and is showing organization on satellite imagery. All indications seems that it has already upped wind speeds to qualify as a tropical storm.

There is wind shear ahead of it and that could weaken it or prevent intensification, but right now it doesn't look like that wind shear is affecting it.

Sorry guys, should have been more clear - just picking up on speculation from some of the experts on the
Ukweatherworld forum

Admittedly, yes, increased shear ahead could hold its development back as yet.

Originally posted by worldwatcher
well I don't know about TD5 being a hurricane in 24 hours, but as of now, I think it should already be named Ernesto.

Mid level circulation is seperating from the low level circulation due to wind shear, so it's not likely that this storm will last. It's going to take some serious refiring and shear to drop off to make it through tonight.

Ernesto did earn his name at the NRL, since the models are now intializing it as a TS. We shall see if the NHC will do the same at 5pm EDT.

www.nrlmry.navy.mil...

[edit on 25-8-2006 by Regenmacher]

Yeah, it's undergoing a lot of shear right now.
It won't make it above storm or depression strength for a while. The circulation is still very good and there's still alot of convection trying to feed into it, so I don't think it'll die out immediately (or at all), just not strengthen for a while. We'll see

It's officially Ernesto now

Tropical Storm Ernesto
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

Here is a model run that puts the storm in the west central gulf as a major hurricane.



Of course these things are subject to change. But at least people should keep an eye on this one. I would call this storm a high risk for landfall somewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast. I'll post some other images later once I figure out how this stuff works here. I have endless satellite images but I don't know how to resize them here to about 400x300 with a link to the full image.

*sigh*

I guess today I will go take care of all the necessary precautions that I have neglected so far: batteries, water, etc. A tropical storm is enough to wreak havoc here right now.

When I last checked GFDL and NOGAPS have it where it looks like eventually it will hit the Alabama/Florida coast. I hate to sound pessimistic, but that's what they said last year about a certain you know who.

All those on the Gulf Coast, let's just keep our fingers crossed, though I think after maybe tomorrow, Monday latest, we can safely say that southern Florida will be out of the running.

*crosses fingers*

GFS, GFDL,and the NOGAPs models are indicating a weakness in the upper ridge which could increase eastward bias, BUT the TUTT low is moving out towards the west now and shear is forecasted to calm down, so a Texas landfall is not out of the picture.

I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith in an eastward curvature at this point in the game. 5-days out can have a large margin of error. My guess is West LA to TX/LA border region at this point in the forecast.

12Z Models:
euler.atmos.colostate.edu...

Ermesto sat photos (RGB visible are true color):
www.ssd.noaa.gov...

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Lastest NHC track...

Another view, but man is this too freaky. Cat 3 by Thursday and headed straight for you know where.

Man, it just can't happen again can it?





[edit on 8/26/2006 by Relentless]

Well, they updated the track. Ernesto is now 60mph and it looks like it will be intensifying to a hurricane sooner, rather than later. I must admit, for the moment, I have breathed a sigh of relief, but these tracks can change. I hope it just fizzles out, which last I checked some computer models still allow for. Anyway, here is the track now.


Source

*Pours drink, sighs*

*Edit - Second try, if it doesn't let me edit the track in this time, could a mod fix it?

[edit on 8/26/06 by niteboy82]

[edit on 8/26/06 by niteboy82]

11pm out, still a lot of uncertainty.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE
TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. AFTER REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS
SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST
AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR
EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE
NOGAPS. IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

After it passes by Cuba, then we should be able to narrow it down to what state it will make landfall in.

It looks like this is going to be a big one no matter where it hits. I'm glad I don't live on the Gulf Coast

I thought they were supposed to come here to the northeast this year, plus there was supposed to be more of them. I'm beginning to think long-term tropical weather forecasting is a psuedoscience...you might as well be using tarot cards as to listen to the so-called experts.

Worldwatcher, Ernest seems going your way

Hurricane Ernesto heads to Florida
Ernesto is expected to continue to strengthen further today before making a landfall in western or central Cuba late Monday night into Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday, Ernesto is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and possibly intensify further to a Category 3 hurricane - a major hurricane - before heading into Florida by Friday.

Of major concern is what effects Ernesto will bring to the United States by the middle of the week. Ernesto will encounter warm waters which will fuel its' strengthing. If Ernesto encounters the loop current (a ribbon of very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico) for a long enough time, it could easily explode and intensify quickly. All indications are that a trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere digging across the Plains states will help to curve Ernesto back to the east some before it makes a final landfall likely in Florida.

Residents in Florida and elsewhere along the Gulf Coast especially in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for the latest updates on Ernesto. Even if Ernesto passes well away from where you live fringe effects of the storm can still be felt. Now is the time to review your hurricane protection plan and take neccessary action. By Tuesday at the least the outer bands of Ernesto could spread tropical storm force winds into South Florida, especially the Keys and will kick up the surf in the Gulf of Mexico.

Similar to the strong hurricanes you had in 2005.
Just hope it does not strenghten as forecasted.
And if it does...

Keep safe all of you on Ernesto´s path.

Yes, it's looking strikingly similar to 2004 Charlie at this point. UGH!

The only thing that comforts me is that it's projected path is still 5 days out for Florida, and look how drastically the 5 day changed in the past 24 hours where they had it headed straight for New Orleans as a Cat 3. I don't think we can even have a clue till a day or two more go by.

Well, that overnight shift in the track is something else! Now Ernesto is a Cat 1. Not time to let my guard down by far, as last year is still to well burnt into my mind. Katrina strike path didn't change until Friday before, and Sunday the squalls were coming in. No rest yet, and how this path has been changing, I won't hang the hat up yet.

I also see that my previously posted track is apparently going to change on this thread every time they post theirs. Hmm. Sorry didn't count on that happening.

WorldWatcher, you stay safe, and lets pray that this storm gets tracked even more out there and passes your area completely!

Ernesto's lastest model tracks

Radar and Satellite images at Naval Station Guantanamo Bay

Max Mayfiled said it's still saying it's too early to call where it will hit.

Steve Lyons was saying after the ULL interaction ends, it will cross over the Eastern tip of Cuba then move west through the Florida Straits before recurving. He's favoring the far right side of the current zone as opposed to the middle or more Western solution.

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Once Ernesto encounters Cuba, it should go down at least one Category in strength. The eastern end of Cuba is very rugged and will interfere with the storm's circulation. Exactly how long Ernesto spends over Cuba will be critical in determining what kind of blow the Florida Keys will receive. Ernesto will most likely emerge from Cuba into the Florida Straights as a tropical storm.

Note: Shear is responsible for Ernesto's center to relocate, which changed the current forecast track(s) to make it possible for a Florida landfall.



[edit on 27-8-2006 by Regenmacher]

Hurricane hunters will be going back out at 2 this afternoon. I like to watch Dr. Jeff Masters blog on Weather Underground. He tends to post info as soon as he gets it. Dr. Jeff Masters blog

The track forecast
The models have come into better alignment now. They unanimously predict a stronger trough of low pressure than originally forecast will act to pull Ernesto northwards across Florida, and then northeastwards out to sea. The exact highest risk Florida landfall is difficult to pin down so far in advance, and everywhere from Miami to Pensacola is at risk. It appears now that New Orleans can breathe easy, as Ernesto should miss that city by a wide margin. Residents of North Carolina should be alert, as Ernesto may brush the Outer Banks after traversing Florida.

oh just great!!! well I'm prepared as well as I am going to be. Glad the renovations outside aren't done yet and I didn't put up that fence yet.

Imo if the track doesn't suddenly change again, I think landfall will be between Tampa and Fort Myers. I wasn't expecting and part of me still doesnt think this will be a South Florida storm...but only time will tell what happens.

I'm going to change the oil in my generator today and charge up my Husky backup supply.

Good idea, WW

Better preventing...