Close Call from Asteroid on July 3rd

Originally posted by dgtempe


One of these days,
(pic removed) one will have our name on it.

I just hope its later rather than sooner.

(illustration hosted by my photobucket)

This I don't doubt.
Perhaps we are even overdue for one.
We may even see one or more soon...

As always, it's not until someone points out how far away the moon is that people stop over-reacting.

Yeah, all those "close encounters" with asteroids... they happen at a HUGE distance away from us. They're not just skimming our atmosphere... hell, they're not even skimming the surface of the moon.

The only time you should start getting worried that an asteroid might hit us is if it passes within 2000km of earth, or you're told "it'll hit earth". However, anything 5000km away means that it's simply passing between the earth and the moon... which is a big deal, but hardly worth worrying about.

Also, for the people who say "we're way overdue" - that's assuming that the amount of leftover material floating between the planets has remained the same over the past billion years. Slowly but surely this interplanetary "debris" is colliding with us as well as other planets - slowly sweeping out those that have a chance of hitting us. Perhaps the collisions actually occur less and less into a planet's lifetime...

The fact for that is that we simply don't know, but for the ones we do know, we're pretty sure that there won't be an immense asteroid collision anywhere in our lifetimes.

Originally posted by cmdrkeenkid
That's about 269,571 miles. The Moon orbits 238,857 away from Earth. Should I be worried about the Moon crashing to Earth!?

I would say that is close to the moon orbit. Could be interesting. Where is the moon at that time?

A collision with the moon, interesting. The moon is in the first quater on the 3rd of july (maning it forms a 90 degree angle with the sun. I'm not exactly sure were the asteroid passes us, but it could be interesting.

However i think this is unlikely as it still is missing us (and the moon) by a relativly large distance. But this event is just another example that could be used to encourage governments to prepare more extensive plans in the event of a collision. One day, it will happen.

I thought these were some cool links:

NASA's report on Schwassmann-Wachmann :

science.nasa.gov...

A very short clip of supposedly Schwassmann-Wachmann :

www.youtube.com...

any more 'accurate' news relating to this July 3rd close call.???

2004 XP14 has zero chance of impact.

Actually the only "known" asteroid that has a fairly decent chance is 1950 DA
around the year 2880. Which gives alot of time to fret and worry and run around with your arms flailing.

Originally posted by TheHorseChestnut
2004 XP14 has zero chance of impact.
Actually the only "known" asteroid that has a fairly decent chance is 1950 DA
around the year 2880. Which gives alot of time to fret and worry and run around with your arms flailing.

I know I'm a guy and all, but I better have some goooood makeup to cover the age spots by that time. Not to mention I will have to find a way to keep my arms intact to flail them. LOL, this is always so funny to watch. People, we would have amateur astronomers warning us even if the MSM lied to us about it. That's the beauty of the net!

Originally posted by TheHorseChestnut
2004 XP14 has zero chance of impact.

Correct.

The data table is old; the most recent reference to 2004 XP14 was upon its removal from the impact probability list back in 2005. The potential is nil once removed.

Last Updated May 27, 2006
As the set of available observations for a given object grows we are often able to rule out previous potential impacts as no longer consistent with the observations. The following table gives a listing of such objects for which all previously detected potential impacts have been eliminated.
neo.jpl.nasa.gov..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> Source

Removed on: (from above table)

2004 XP14 2005-03-17 13.29

mg

There is little to worry about with this asteroid. The fact that it hasn't been seen since 2004 and we are relying on trajectories calculated from then is enough to give a person hesitation, but with a miss distance of more than a quarter of a million miles, it leaves plenty of room for error.

On the flip side, there is an asteroid by the name of Apophis that is calculated to miss the earth by a mere 20,000 miles Friday, April 13th, 2029. There is quite a questionable story to go with the discovery of that asteroid by which astronomers originally calculated it to be a direct hit. But after searching some archives, the asteroid was found in a photo dating 8 months prior and they recalculated it to miss by 20,000 miles.

If the calculations of Apophis are off by a mere 5 centimeters per second or 1 MPH, then it could, in fact, collide with earth or miss by 40,000 miles. Keep in mind that this object is moving at an average speed greater than 20,000 miles per hour.

The honest report on it is that we will pass close enough to it again in Late 2012/Early 2013 to get another look at it and a better calculation of it's trajectory. However, we are in the hands of a few elite astronomers who have access to telescopes powerful enough to get a fix on it and then calculate a more precise trajectory for it.

Currently, NASA's confidence that we are in no danger from this object serves best to quash any fears that the general public might have and to prevent a media scare that could easily arise from it. The truth is that there is currently time to deal with it if it is found to be on a collision course, but that time will quickly limit the options of how to deal with it after 2013. An object 20 years away only has to be redirected by 2 or 3 centimeters per second. Every time you cut that time in half, the amount of energy required to move the object must be doubled. 20 years away, it is not an easy task to move an object that size, but when it is 5 years away, it is 4 times more difficult.

The bottom line is....let's all hope that NASA is as accurate as they say they are. An object the size of Apophis is large enough to devestate 1/4 of a continent...more if it were to hit in the ocean.

There is a group of amateur astronomers that have asked that a tracking device be planted on this asteroid in order to get a most accurate trajectory on it because they are not convinced that it will miss the earth in 2029.

But...back to this asteroid on July 3rd...this asteroid is so big and approaching so close that it is quite possibly the most threatening object of the decade, though it is really not close enough to be a threat. It is, however, close enough that many amateur astronomers such as Commander Keen should be able to get a look at it from their back yards if they know where to look. This will be a fascinating opportunity for them and those of us who have amateur astronomer friends.

Originally posted by Leevi
Oh my.. on the Java screen the asteroid almost merges with Earth's position. Lets hope there will be no collision, otherwise that'll be a true disaster for us..I'm getting afraid already..

[edit on 22-5-2006 by Leevi]

What the hell an asteriod on collision? if it is then im going rioting and looting steal a rolls royce and airliner

[edit on 28-5-2006 by Hawaii_boy]

I see that you read the first post and decided to comment. First of all, you can't use that animation to predict an impact. Secondly, there is ZERO chance of it hitting. Third, if it DID we would probably all be dead, so there goes your looting.

Originally posted by davenman

But...back to this asteroid on July 3rd...this asteroid is so big and approaching so close that it is quite possibly the most threatening object of the decade, though it is really not close enough to be a threat. It is, however, close enough that many amateur astronomers such as Commander Keen should be able to get a look at it from their back yards if they know where to look. This will be a fascinating opportunity for them and those of us who have amateur astronomer friends.

XP14 is a difficult target, it's apparent magnitude (brightness at 1 AU) is 19.8 or something like that, making it an impossible target for smaller scopes (under 16")
and a very difficult target for larger backyard scopes (20"and larger). Very dark skies and steady viewing are essential for successful asteroid spotting.

Most backyard astronomers (including yours truly) are only able to spot NEO on close approaches, or after they have passed us by. It takes a concerted effort on the whole astronomical community to effectively spot and track these objects.


[edit on 28-5-2006 by TheHorseChestnut]

Horse,

Thank you for the information. I was thinking that this asteroid was going to be close enough to be a magnitude 12 or so. I had no idea that it would be that difficult to spot. I am near to an observatory that opens to the public about once a week and I like to go once a month or so to get a view through their 14" scope.

It's a lot of fun. I've been learning a lot of stars, nubulas, galaxies and constellations thanks to them. My favorite astronomy has to do with things within our own solar system.

One of the amateurs there told of being able to help track an asteroid by timing its' eclipse of a certain star and reporting it. He explained about how his location, the time and the duration of the eclipsing helped to plot its' trajectory and size. He also said that it is difficult to get a look at an asteroid because it is usually a dark object that doesn't reflect much light. Rather, it was the eclipsing of stars that was mostly visible.

I was hoping that this asteroid might be close enough and big enough to actually see in their scope.

Thanks for the info...I'm still going to ask them about it next time I go.

If there is an asteriod meteor or anything like that on collision they should report it here, if there is one large one on collision or anything im going out looting rioting and stealing a rolls royce and airliner and everything expensive.

If its so difficult to spot, how well do we know it. Are the orbit calculations 100% or could they be off due to the difficulty in spotting this object?

There is no such thing as 100% in orbital calculations. But, it would take a pretty significant event to change it enough to bring an impact with us.

...and this means the world is going to end....................................again.
How many times has it been this year?

Originally posted by cmdrkeenkid
That's about 269,571 miles. The Moon orbits 238,857 away from Earth. Should I be worried about the Moon crashing to Earth!?

Hmmm so it is about the same distance away. Is there any chance of this meteor hitting the moon? What would be the effects of an object of that size colliding with the moon?

Originally posted by g210

Originally posted by cmdrkeenkid
That's about 269,571 miles. The Moon orbits 238,857 away from Earth. Should I be worried about the Moon crashing to Earth!?

I would say that is close to the moon orbit. Could be interesting. Where is the moon at that time?

Actually the position of Luna is of concern to me. While a direct strike is nil, the possibility of the moon capturing or (worst case) slingshoting it into an impact does concern me. In fact a large enough object becoming a "moon" to Luna on a wide enough orbit could cause a real change in tidal forces.