Bill Gates: ''The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down.''

no worries Raven.. we are definately aware of the problem... which is exactly why we are doing this thread.. I am just tracking the currency numbers and Mdv2 is illustrated some other important factors to show how this economy is in big trouble...

UPDATE

Recently, I came around an article which had officially been published in the Boston Herald two years, but pretty well describes what is currently happening. Often, people who don't believe such a collapse is a realistic possibility often suggest that certain persons have been calling for such a collapse for years.

Though, the people that did claim the US economy would collapse years ago are not the same people who are currently claiming it will happen.

It's not strange at all that people are terrified of such a collapse and rather chose to fail to see what is happening right in front of our eyes.

If people start pulling out investment from the US (Gates and prominent Republicans for instance) you should better start worrying. Especially, if the Comptroller General and Harvard professors predict a collapse as well.

By Brett Arends/ On State Street
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

But you should hear what he's saying in private.

Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.

His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic "Armageddon."

Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, "it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public."

Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that "we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual Armageddon."

The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.

In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he wants.

The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.

Less a case of "Armageddon," maybe, than of a "Perfect Storm."

Roach marshaled alarming facts to support his argument.

To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.

That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.

Sustainable? Hardly.

Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels.

Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half the size of the economy.

Today the figure is 85 percent.

Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest rates, leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.

Americans are already spending a record share of disposable income paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't even risen much yet.

You don't have to ask a Wall Street economist to know this, of course. Watch people wielding their credit cards this Christmas.

Roach's analysis isn't entirely new. But recent events give it extra force.

The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies from the yen to the euro.

Its parachute failed to open over the weekend, when a meeting of the world's top finance ministers produced no promise of concerted intervention.

It has farther to fall, especially against Asian currencies, analysts agree.

The Fed chairman was drawn to warn on the dollar, and interest rates, on Friday.

Roach could not be reached for comment yesterday. A source who heard the presentation concluded that a "spectacular wave of bankruptcies" is possible.

Smart people downtown agree with much of the analysis. It is undeniable that America is living in a "debt bubble" of record proportions.

But they argue there may be an alternative scenario to Roach's. Greenspan might instead deliberately allow the dollar to slump and inflation to rise, whittling away at the value of today's consumer debts in real terms.

Inflation of 7 percent a year halves "real" values in a decade.

It may be the only way out of the trap.

Higher interest rates, or higher inflation: Either way, the biggest losers will be long-term lenders at fixed interest rates.

You wouldn't want to hold 30-year Treasuries, which today yield just 4.83 percent.

Source

Neither should we forget that the Federal Reserve stopped publishing M3 Money Supply Data in March. Why would they do that?

M3 is the data which states how much money is actually being printed by a country. Gurus think the Fed wants to keep the show running as long as possible. This can be done by printing more and more US Dollars, which enables the US Government to buy up more treasury bonds, and thus lift markets.

When Greenspan was in office he pointed out that the US is intervening in currency markets and manipulating interest rates. Furthermore, they can also intervene in real estate and stock markets.

The Governments are currently attempting to postpone the bursting of the bubble by creating more fiat currency. To date they have been successful: the bubble did not burst even in 2000 when stock markets fell severely, as evidenced by the growth rate of 9% that year in the number of US dollars (see the US money supply statistics in point 4). As the size and duration of the bubble grows, efforts to keep the bubble growing need to become more extreme—for example, worldwide interest rates are at record lows.

Source

However, European and Asian stock exchanges did fall much deeper than the Dow Jones, back then in 2000.

The reason? There are very strong suspicions that the stock market is being bolstered via the Dollars that the US is printing very swiftly and in large amounts. Larger amounts than ever before. This is most probably the reason why the Federal Reserve stopped publishing the M3 Money Supply Data as it would depreciate the Dollars value faster. In simple terms, the US is suspected of financing itself through the backdoor of Caribbean banks.


[edit on 4-10-2006 by Mdv2]

Originally posted by the_sentinal
i have some cash holdings i think i'll switch to euro's just to be on the safe side...

Best bet would be to get something tangible, like gold, silver & precious gemstones. Even the Euro is based on the same type of "fiat money" that the Dollar is on right now.

Originally posted by Fuhr86
Interesting times ahead.

The old Chinese Curse, "May you live in interesting times."
The modern world has been getting more "interesting" during the last few generations...

Originally posted by XphilesPhan
I posted something on this awhile back, I do not trust banks at all.....I hate them in fact. IF you look at their business practices it turns your stomach.

Here's some more sickening info about banks, already available here at ATS:
here,
here &
here I touched on the subject a bit.

There are likely to be more threads around here, but these are just the ones I'm aware of (& posted in).

[edit on 4-10-2006 by MidnightDStroyer]

Originally posted by MidnightDStroyer

Originally posted by the_sentinal
i have some cash holdings i think i'll switch to euro's just to be on the safe side...

Best bet would be to get something tangible, like gold, silver & precious gemstones. Even the Euro is based on the same type of "fiat money" that the Dollar is on right now.

I'll second that. While the European situation might be not as worse as the US situation will be, the European economy will go down as well, should the US economy collapse. Gold and silver have always survived times of financial crisis and probably always will, even if you only have few assets to invest, silver is not that expensive.

Should you consider buying gold, consider buying coins rather than bars, as they are easier to carry with you. Be aware that the US government could claim any gold coming from the Federal Reserve, such as Gold Eagles , that's why a better option for instance would be (South African) Kruger Rands. Oh, and don't store it in a bank. Furthermore, gold might be the only option left companies accept to get you out of a country.

Think about Harry Schultz's (for the records: he earns 2400 USD an hour) advice to the richest societies (Buffet and several prominent Neo-cons for instance): He's currently stressing rich Americans to buy a property abroad/outside the US where they can be self sufficient to flee to in times of financial crisis. Apparently, Cheney and other rich Neo Cons did already follow up his advice.

It's laughable to see the Bush Administration claiming how well the economy is performing at the moment. Of course they don't tell you what really is going on, and only a fraction is aware of what is going to happen.

I've been thinking about a possible connection between the FEMA concentration camps, changes in laws and regulations, increase of trainings of Urban warfare and the withdrawal of US troops from mainland Europe back to the US...


[edit on 4-10-2006 by Mdv2]

Also very interesting, the following article published in Kiplinger Magazine of March 2006.

By Steven Goldberg
May 17, 2006

Vice President Cheney's financial advisers are apparently betting on a rise in inflation and interest rates and on a decline in the value of the dollar against foreign currencies. That's the conclusion we draw after scouring the financial disclosure form released by Cheney this week.

As of the end of last year, Cheney and his wife, Lynne, held between $10 million and $25 million in Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt fund (it's impossible to be more precise because the disclosure form lists holdings within ranges). The fund's holdings of tax-free municipal bonds mature, on average, in a little more than a year -- meaning that the fund should hold up well if rates rise. The Cheneys held another $1 million to $5 million in Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market fund, which is practically risk-free and could benefit from continued increases in short-term interest rates. And the couple had between $2 million and $10 million in Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities fund. The principal and interest payments of inflation-protected bonds rise along with consumer prices, making them good inflation hedges.

The Cheneys also had between $10 million and $25 million in American Century International Bond. The fund buys mainly high-quality foreign bonds (predominantly in Europe) and rarely hedges against possible increases in the value of the dollar. Indeed, its prospectus limits dollar exposure to 25% of assets and the fund currently has only 6% of assets in dollars, according to an American Century spokesman.

The Cheneys' total assets could be as high as $94.6 million, according to the disclosure form. The vice-president's advisers say the vice president pays no attention to his investments. His lawyer, Terrence O'Donnell, says outside money managers supervise the investments. "He has nothing to do with it," O'Donnell says.

As for stocks, the couple held between $1 million and $5 million in Lazard International Equity and a like amount in Lazard Emerging Markets funds. The Cheneys' relatively few U.S. stock fund holdings include $1 million to $5 million in GMO Tax-Managed U.S. Equities III.

Kiplinger Magazine

Either Cheney or his advisors are playing a very smart game.

Originally posted by Mdv2
industry: 20.4%
services: 78.7% (2005 est.)

Seen the size of the US economy, the industrial part really is of a very big importance.
Lately, I heard that there will be a very large demand (and shortage) the coming decenia for higher educated people as the economy continues to evolve.

Does anyone know what causes that I suddenly have to scroll horizontally?

I heard it the other way around- everyone and their mothers is heading for a university degree nowadays, it's the skilled labor trades that are really coming up short. Good thread.

DE

Should you consider buying gold, consider buying coins rather than bars, as they are easier to carry with you. Be aware that the US government could claim any gold coming from the Federal Reserve, such as Gold Eagles , that's why a better option for instance would be (South African) Kruger Rands. Oh, and don't store it in a bank. Furthermore, gold might be the only option left companies accept to get you out of a country.

I read something about the government seizing gold legally after a financial collapse. Is it just us minted gold? Cause it seem's like you could melt it down if that were the case, and have nugget's instead of coins.

I WOULD say that certain metals do have consistent value, however, the world has not used gold or any other precious metal for a basis for currency in quite some time. I'm not sure about whether I would want precious metals as something to have around- it can be seized, it can fluxuate in value, and it's pretty limited as far as transactions go.

DE

Originally posted by DeusEx
I WOULD say that certain metals do have consistent value, however, the world has not used gold or any other precious metal for a basis for currency in quite some time. I'm not sure about whether I would want precious metals as something to have around- it can be seized, it can fluxuate in value, and it's pretty limited as far as transactions go.

You shouldn't see an investment in tangible gold or other precious metals as a pure pursuit of gain. Compare it to a first aid kit. As soon as the Dollar has collapsed fiat money will become worthless, yet precious metals won't (history proven).

The majority of Westerners/Americans live in huge cities. An economic collapse would lead to enormous chaos, shortages of first necessities, and most likely to civil war, which is exactly the reason why Schultz advises those people to buy properties abroad in relatively low populated areas, where they are able to be self sufficient, since your local grocery store won't sell bread anymore, and there's relatively little space in huge cities to be self sufficient.

But how to get somewhere else? How to pay your flight for instance? After all, fiat money will not be a payment possibility during a crisis. Personally, I'd say gold is the answer. Gold and silver prices would skyrocket in no time and even a relatively small amount should be considerable to act as 'first aid', for instance an amount of gold valued at $6000,-.

Anyhow, I am not a professional investor, nor am I willing to change the subject too much. Let's keep it political.

What do you all think of the following footage. What would be the reason for construction such camps? If it was solely intended for the War on Terrorism and immigration gulfs from the South ask yourself why there would a need for so many sites and on such a huge scale. It doesn't make sense to me.

FEMA Detention Camp footage

I concur about the distant property- definitely a worthwhile investment. I'm still not sure about use the of gold and silver exchange for everyday goods. Especially in the case of most people, who couldn't tell platinum from silver, nor have any idea of their true value. In the face of crisis, solid, barterable commodities would be the best bet, I think.

That or running away and hiding, that's always a good idea.

DE

Any update on that? On another subject, my economic teacher told me that the suppression of M3 was because it was worthless and was hard to calculate...

Also, do anyone have information about Ben Bernanke being in bed with some secret societies or corporations? Thanks.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Any update on that? On another subject, my economic teacher told me that the suppression of M3 was because it was worthless and was hard to calculate...

Also, do anyone have information about Ben Bernanke being in bed with some secret societies or corporations? Thanks.

The stupid, uninformed blatherings of the lairs and dopes that populate this insane asylum aside, the M3 was dropped because it was just a summation of information contained in the M2.

In a press release dated 10 November, 2005, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System announced that it would cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate.[19] The Board stated that M3 "does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2," and that the decision was reached largely because "the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits."
en.wikipedia.org...

[edit on 19-10-2006 by Number23]

If Gates and Cheney are still shorting dollar as the earlier articles in this thread has stated, then they are losing The dollar has only gotten stronger over the past year and is currently near it's highest levels.

maybe they're trading long term, I'm sure they both have enough equity in their account to ride this loss if they shorted back in January and May.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Any update on that? On another subject, my economic teacher told me that the suppression of M3 was because it was worthless and was hard to calculate...

Most educators will just parrot the official line. It's a lazy excuse to not ask questions and think for themselves.

''M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2,''

If it did not provide additional information, why report M3 all those years?

"the costs of collecting the data and publishing M3 now appear to outweigh
the benefits.''

So, they were wasting money all that time? Eh? When has the government ever care about saving money. Horse#, saving money. What a laugh. The Pentagon just "lost" track of $4 trillion. Tell me again they want to save money.

I understand if they stop reporting M1, since M1 is included in M2. M3 is M2 plus large-denomination time deposits, repurchase liabilities, Eurodollars (held in US banks in Europe and Canada). M3 is the boardest measure of the money supply.

The reason the Fed stop reporting M3 is that they are hiding something. One thing we can expect for certain is hyperinflation of the money supply. GDP is growing annually around 3.5%, yet M3 is at about 10%. Where is the difference of these new money going to. Into stock markets.

Also, do anyone have information about Ben Bernanke being in bed with some secret societies or corporations? Thanks.

I don't know about Bernanke, but I'm sure he is in on some of the satellite secret groups based on what is known of passed chairmans. Bernanke would never make the list of candidates, if he wasn't connected to the dynastic banking families.

Paul Adolph Volcker (1979-1987): Volcker has had a long association with the Rockefeller family; positions at Chase Bank, Rockefeller Group, and the Trilateral Commission.

Alan Greenspan (1987-2006): There are talks of Greenspan had attended meeting in Bohemian Groove before appointed Chairman.

George William Miller (1978-1979): Miller was a member of the Club of Rome.


[edit on 19-10-2006 by tazadar]

Just thought I'd drop by and post a link to this article from the Sydney Morning Herald.



An orderly adjustment would be nice... but however it's managed, I can't see it as an upside for the dollar.

Has anyone considered that the Bush administration's transformation of a surplus into a multibillion deficit might even be deliberate? They seem desperate to recreate the conditions of Nazi Germany in the US, and a currency panic would make it much easier for "strong government" to take and hold power, Just a thought.

They seem desperate to recreate the conditions of Nazi Germany in the US, and a currency panic would make it much easier for "strong government" to take and hold power, Just a thought.

Very probable, the grand father of Bush was funding the nazis. They also are in Bohemian Grove, something the nazis were connected to... And it's the goal of Bilderberg... bringing down the US, so they can achieve the North American Union, another step to world government, they will bring this idea as an economic saviour for the Canada/Mexico/USA, when in fact, they created the economic crash for this purpose, for creating a huge crisis, bringing the solution... Nazi-style. Also, they are huge fans of the book Propaganda 101 from 1931, not sure about the year, the book who helped the nazi doing what they did.

Also, they will use this power, the global economic crash, for global military dominance.

[edit on 20-10-2006 by Vitchilo]

UPDATE

Governors of six Gulf central banks, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, will meet next month as they seek to create the Middle East's first unified currency by 2010, a Qatari official said.

The meeting, planned for Nov. 4 in Jidda, is the next step in a round of talks among the six Gulf monarchies to discuss monetary union, Basheer Yousef al-Kahalooth, an official at the Qatar Central Bank, said by telephone from Doha, Qatar.

Monetary union among the Gulf monarchies, which pump about a fifth of the world's crude oil, may lead to the end of their currencies' peg to the dollar, and "a more flexible currency regime," said Monica Malik of Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai.


Herald Tribune

Obviously, they see what is going to happen and therefore are taking precautionary measures.

Dollar Falls as Russian Central Bank Will Increase Yen Reserves

By Daniel Kruger and Min Zeng

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell the most against the yen in two weeks after Russia's central bank said it was adding the Japanese currency to its foreign-exchange reserves.

Traders sold the U.S. currency after Alexei Ulyukayev, the Russian central bank's first deputy chairman, told Interfax he may boost holdings from almost zero percent. Russia's reserves, the world's third largest, have swelled about 50 percent this year to $267.9 billion as oil prices surged. The U.S. currency rose to the highest against the yen this year on Oct. 13.

``The move could lead toward broader U.S. dollar weakness,'' said Mark Meadows, a strategist at currency-trading company Tempus Consulting in Washington. With the dollar near key trading points of 120 yen and $1.2470 per euro ``it brings up the question of whether the dollar is going to be able to sustain moves past these levels.''

`Dollar-Selling Factor'

``This is another dollar-selling factor,'' said Brian Dolan, research director at Forex.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey, which has about $250 million worth of funds under management. ``It is eroding some of the dollar strength we have seen in the past two weeks.''

Remarks by billionaire investor George Soros, chairman of New York-based Soros Fund Management, after a speech in Tokyo also bolstered the yen. Soros said he saw some pressure from Japanese government officials to stop the yen from weakening further, Reuters reported today.

Bloomberg

Originally posted by tazadar

The reason the Fed stop reporting M3 is that they are hiding something. One thing we can expect for certain is hyperinflation of the money supply. GDP is growing annually around 3.5%, yet M3 is at about 10%. Where is the difference of these new money going to. Into stock markets.

I and many others agree with you. As I stated the Fed is most likely financing itself through the Caribbean backdoor, in other words, printing mass amounts of US Dollars to pay its own Debts. The publication of those (M3 Money supply) figures would mean a rapid weaking of the Dollar.

The system is on the verge of collapsing, when will it happen is the question and for what purpose are the FEMA detention camps? It doesn't make sense to construct systematically those camps all over the US (Alaska, Colorado etc.) when you expect the illegal immigrants to come from the southern border. Should the program be intended for an additional purpose (War on Terror) than the scale on which those camps are currently being contructed does neither make any sense.

The camps all have railroad facilities as well as roads leading to and from the detention facilities. Many also have an airport nearby. The majority of the camps can house a population of 20,000 prisoners. Currently, the largest of these facilities is just outside of Fairbanks, Alaska. The Alaskan facility is a massive mental health facility and can hold approximately 2 million people.

Source

Originally posted by worldwatcher
If Gates and Cheney are still shorting dollar as the earlier articles in this thread has stated, then they are losing

The dollar has only gotten stronger over the past year and is currently near it's highest levels.

Could you please elaborate your assertion, as the Dollar has been weaking against all major currencies the last five years, and it's only falling deeper, measuring the strength of a currency on a one year basis does not enable you to draw any valid conclusions.

Dollar Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Since July as Growth Slows

By Kabir Chibber and Ron Harui

Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar is poised for its steepest weekly loss against the yen since July on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep borrowing costs unchanged for a third month as the economy slows.

The U.S. currency has lost 1.1 percent this week as reports showed a contraction in manufacturing and industrial production. Fed policy maker President William Poole said yesterday ``inflation has become much more stable'' in recent years. The yen also rose this week as the Russian central bank said it will increase its holdings of the currency.

Bloomberg

US Dollar - Euro


US Dollar - British Pound



[edit on 20-10-2006 by Mdv2]

Originally posted by Mdv2
Obviously, they see what is going to happen and therefore are taking precautionary measures.

Such a currancy could be more than precautionary...
It could be an agressive attempt to kick the legs out from under the US ecconomy.

It would be damned effective too. Without the oil standard backing the US Dollar, it would become wildly devalued in a very short time. It could crash the dollar within hours of going live if OPEC desides to make it their oil trade standard (which I'm perty damned sure they would).

If that report is true and they actually go through with it, 2010 will be the year the US fell.

Grr... that's really gonna farq up our 2010 Winter Olympics!

[edit on 20-10-2006 by BitRaiser]

Originally posted by BitRaiser
Such a currancy could be more than precautionary...
It could be an agressive attempt to kick the legs out from under the US ecconomy.

It would be damned effective too. Without the oil standard backing the US Dollar, it would become wildly devalued in a very short time. It could crash the dollar within hours of going live if OPEC desides to make it their oil trade standard (which I'm perty damned sure they would).

While I concur with your theory I don't share your opinion that it would be an attempt to 'kick the legs out from under the US economy'.

Those countries would not benefit from losing the US as important trading partner for crude oil. In addition, it would create chaos throughout the Middle East and basically result in a crash of smaller Westernized Gulf States of e.g. Qatar and UAE, which are dependent on Western investment.

To take the UAE as example, their oil reserves are almost fully exploited and its economic fundament is now primarily based on (Western) tourism service based economic activities, would it be able to survive without the West?

However, someday you have to take a decision, the European Union did it years ago, now many other countries seem to follow (the Asian monetary fund proposal and now this one).

Iran and Iraq knew perfectly what the achilles heel of the US is, cannot defeat them militarily? Do it economically.

Originally posted by Mdv2
Iran and Iraq knew perfectly what the achilles heel of the US is, cannot defeat them militarily? Do it economically.

Which is exactly my point.

Now, I'm not saying that this unified ME currency IS an agressive attempt to knock out the US dollar... but it would sure be an effective strategy if it were.

As to the UAE et al being dependent on US capital investment, those corporat investors are much more likely to be able to survive a dollar crash than the US itself. Since they are coporations, they can dump their US dollars and switchover to whatever else they feel compelled to trade in. Euros, for example.

It's the Federal Reserve and the US Government that are being setup for one hell of a fall.