Bill Gates: ''The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down.''

Yes I am willing to clarify what I just told you. But since you are ignorant enough to believe that US debts will shrink and that unemployment has fallen, which you have based on false figures, yet nice to include in this thread.

Originally posted by Number23
the deficit and debt burden have shrunk (and continue to shrink) and unemployment has fallen to near record lows. In fact America's “broken” economy is the best performing industrial economy on earth. For an economy that is in peril of “imminent collapse” it sure looks healthy.

With all due respect, saying that the US industrial economy is the best performing on economy on earth is a loose statement.

You claim it is healthy. Explain me why the US economy is currently evolving into an information based economy. After all, if it's such a ''healthy'' industrial economy you should think the US could compete with China and other industrial countries? Why are all industrial jobs moving to overseas countries? Let me think, those other countries might be better able to compete. But hey, the US industrial is so strong in terms of industrial force, it's so powerful that US desperately needs more and more higher educted people to fulfill demands of the information based economy.

Originally posted by Mdv2

Second, people still don't seem to understand how those US figures are deliberately being manipulated. To the Bush administration it is important that a low unemployment rate reflects the merits of their policies, and thus to convince the American public that their policies are beneficial for the US, and basically that they are doing a good job.

Reality differs.

How exactly are the US unemployment figures being manipulated, or adjusted, whatever you'd like to define it as.

Huff's book has long been out of print, but I suspect that dog-eared copies are still carefully hidden in the desk drawers of many advertising copywriters, public relations
consultants, politicians and even some economists. Or maybe they learned how to lie with statistics without Huff's help.Examples of statistical fabrication abound: the UN's bogus ranking of Canada as No. 1 on its Human Development Index; the Gross Domestic Product, which rates all economic growth as good, even crime and pollution; and Canada's official unemployment rate, which omits discouraged and involuntary
part-time workers.

If I were to pick the most dishonest case of statistical skullduggery, it would probably be the official unemployment rate in the US. This rate -now claimed to be down to five per cent - completely disregards the millions of people who have given up looking for work, as well as those who are working fewer than 20 hours a week but would prefer full-time jobs. The calculation of the U.S. unemployment rate, however, is done much more deceitfully, and with some of the most blatant statistical perversions
ever devised.

For that country's business and political leaders, it is important that the national jobless rate reflect the merits of their policies. Mass layoffs, part-time work, job
insecurity, big corporate tax breaks, cuts in welfare and UI benefits are not conducive to a lower rate of unemployment. In fact, they invariably have the very opposite effect. But the political flunkeys want to convince the American public that their free market approach benefits workers as much as shareholders. And how better to peddle that lie as the truth than with the crafty misuse of statistics.

According to the Council on International and Public Affairs (CIPA), the real U.S. rate of unemployment, if properly calculated, would be 11.4 per cent - more than double the official rate. The CIPA listed seven major changes in the definitions of "employed" and "unemployed" that were made in the U.S. methodology that have had the combined effect of substantially reducing the number of
Americans officially listed as being jobless.

Among the categories dropped from the labour force survey, in addition to the discouraged, were the under-16 group, those on strike or locked out and those who weren't actively looking for work in the four weeks prior to the survey. But by far the largest group omitted from the list of jobless in the U.S. are the working-age men who are out of work because they are in prison or on parole.

The 1.5 million American men in jail and the 8.1 million on parole make up nearly 10 per cent of that country's male workforce. By not including them in its labour force survey, the U.S. is able to reduce its official unemployment rate by more than five per cent.

Just as the omission of a large group of unemployed can drastically skew the statistics, so can the inclusion of a group whose members are virtually 100 per cent employed - such as the members of the U.S. armed forces. By lumping
these 1.5 million army, navy, air force and marine personnel
in with the civilian workforce, the official unemployment
rate is reduced by nearly another one per cent.

Ed Finn is a research associate with the Canadian Centre for
Policy Alternatives.

Comptroller General, David Walker:

• While the 2005 budget deficit was widely reported at $318 billion, on an operating basis as most companies report, the year's deficit was easily double that amount.

• We finance our deficits by borrowing -- and now 50 percent of our public debt is owned by foreigners.


Source

To get back to your comment on the gold chart. In times of crisis I wish you all the luck with your non tangible investments in Nasdaq stocks. As soon as the US economy collapses your investment portfolio will be gone in smoke at once, all you have left is some valueless pieces of paper.
People whom invested in tangible gold have 1. an investment that is expected to reach the $1500,- / ounce in 2012, and two a commodity, which can actually be used to pay in contrast to your meaningless pieces of paper.

Did I ever say gold is a better investment than Nasdaq stocks when investing solely for profit aims? I did say, however, that it is a much better option to secure your assets against times of financial crisis.



[edit on 11-9-2006 by Mdv2]

I'm not really interested in those who prefer to believe that the US economy is still as strong as it once was, some people cannot be helped anymore. Those who take the time to study the subject will understand it will any time soon go very wrong.

What will you do when the time has come, and it actually collapses, even more important, what precautionary measures will you take now you can.

More and more professors, financial gurus, politicians and others, are worrying about the situation and its developments, still claiming there's nothing happening is pure ignorance.

Former Chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and professor at Harvard university Kenneth Rogoff.



[edit on 15-9-2006 by Mdv2]

You know pithyness is a virtue...

Deficit? It's on glide slope to be cut in half (just like Bush said) from it's peek in 2004

WASHINGTON - The federal budget deficit, helped by a surge in government revenue, is running 14.1 percent below the pace of last year, the government reported Wednesday.

The
Treasury Department said that with just one month to go in the budget year, the deficit totals $304.3 billion, down from $354.1 billion during the same period a year ago.
The Congressional Budget Office is forecasting that the deficit for the entire year will be $260 billion, which would mean that September will see a sizable surplus.
news.yahoo.com...

Unemployment? Calculating unemployment is always fraught with assumptions and people can take issue with a given methodology. The important thing is the trend and the trend is that lower joblessness. This is further supported by recent slowing in worker productivity.

National debt? The debt as measured in raw, unadjusted dollars is meaningless. What matters is the DEBT BURDEN and Americas debt burden is lower than EU and majority of the world's industrial economies. People who discuss the debt in raw, unadjusted dollars without mentioning America's GDP are either dopes or liars. One cannot honestly discuss one without discussing the other.

Consider, 2 guys have 100,000 in debt each, Tom make $35,000 a year while Harry makes $200,000 a year. Who's in more financial trouble? The amount of debt does matter, what matters is the debt burden.

Foreigners owning America's debt? Well they own less than 1/2 of the debt. But more importantly, would it be better if they DIDN”T want to invest in America?

Trade Deficit? The latest scary numbers with fueled (pardon the pun) by record oil prices and thanks to the “invisible hand” prices are plummeting.

[edit on 15-9-2006 by Number23]

The concern that the Dollar $$ is going down should not be a concern at all really, well not for the man in the street anyway.

The Euro has been designed along with the NWO to be the future Global currency and the only way you can do this is to devalue any strong currencies against the Euro to ensure a slow migration over to that Euro based currency.


It has been PLANNED some time ago - around the Reagan / Thatcher era to become the Global currency. Europe has been the Test for this to see whether a group of multi-currency countries could overcome the transition to one currency.

British banking is behind the transition and has also been behind the set-up of the American Federal Reserve as a Private corporation for some time.

You have voted Number23 for the Way Above Top Secret award. You have used all of your votes for this month.

Man, I am a sucker for good news.

Originally posted by Number23
Deficit? It's on glide slope to be cut in half (just like Bush said) from it's peek in 2004

Number23. You don't seem to understand it, doesn't matter, i'll give it one more try. The one and only reason for the current shrinking of the deficit, is tax cutting. A good thing yes, though the government's general spending only rises. The long-term expectation is more important and not looking good at all. You are just taking one point on the whole line, pretty short-sighted.

Ever thought what will happen if investors lose confidence in the US economy, right, they'll stop buying T-bills and pull out investment. Don't try to tell me this won't happen, in the 90s they neither thought it would happen and it did (The Asian Crisis), countries suffered a lot, though not as much as the US would.







[edit on 15-9-2006 by Mdv2]

[edit on 9/15/06 by FredT]

Originally posted by Mouth
Man, I am a sucker for good news.

Well the good news keeps coming...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold and silver futures fell Friday to their lowest levels since June as the U.S. dollar rose to a seven-week high against the euro. The dollar rose against the euro, but traded little changed against the yen early Friday, recovering from losses suffered in the prior session in reaction to strong eurozone economic news.

The U.S. currency briefly lost strength after a government report showed consumer price inflation moderated in August as gasoline and home ownership costs rose at a slower pace. See full story.

"Gold should now look to test towards the June low around $542.50 although oversold signals on the charts could trigger a modest short covering bounce," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

Gold for December delivery fell by $7.30 to trade at $578.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It fell as low as $576.60, the contract's weakest level since June 13.
www.marketwatch.com...

Today's inflation numbers came in below expectations and Dow is at record highs.

Oil trading at less than $63, LOOK OUT BELOW!

We are definitely seeing The Herd going in the good new's direction. But it alway's amaze's me how short sighted The Herd is. NONE of the geo-politic's has changed one iota. If anything, the situation is worse. North Korea on the verge of a nuclear test, Iran ever closer to nuclear weapon's, United Nation's impotent as ever.

I don't blame them for wanting to pretend everything is all right! After all, they are very reactionary. The second one of these thing's rear's it's ugly head again the Market will be saying 'Look out Below'!

With public debt up at 64.7% of GDP, lowest GDP wages percentage since they were recorded (1948), and $8.837 trillion of external dept, how the instability of a $ is a question to anybody I have no idea.

Let me put it this way, China, with it's population of 1.3 billion, has lower unemployment and poverty rate.

Unemployment;

China - 4.2%
US - 5.1%

Below poverty rate;
China - 10%
US - 12%

Here's a kicker;

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold;

China - $795.1 billion
US - $86.94 billion

China's external dept? - $242 billion.

China's account balance: $129.1 billion, US? - NEGATIVE $829.1 billion.

America has the largest and most technologically advanced economy in the world. It is a fact. America is the largest consumer of EVERYTHING in the world, and produces 40% of the world trash. Mismanagement, corruption, and out right fleecing of America is a recipe for a fall of the greatest and most technologically advanced economy in the world. Why?

Because when people are accustomed to a certain life style, yet the bank accounts do not balance year after year, eventually a collection agency repossesses all of the luxurious goodies they got, and sell them of the lot.

The last year marked another 100% increase in house foreclosures because these days Americans own the least percentage of realty while making less total income with both husband and wife paychecks, all while collection/reposition agencies/bank branches enjoyed the highest national growth ever recorded.

Corporate America posted RECORD profits the magnitudes of which were not seen since the Cold War peak of 1960!

What does it all mean? It means how quickly do we forget the good old truth, "the bigger they are the harder they fall", especially after seeing how fast the Soviet giant came undone.

We're next.

edit:trillion/billion

[edit on 18-9-2006 by iskander]

Seriously, who would you rather be, a guy with 10 bucks in his pocket and zero dept, or a guy flashing a hundred dollar bill at the bar, driving a leased car, paying out a 50 year mortgage and on top of that all being ten grand in dept at that very moment?

We are a fully dept society, and after wars, through out the history of human civilization, dept is the second cause which forced people into slavery.

Does that ring a bell at all? Of any kind? Dept=Slavery!

Now ask your selves a simple question, who do owe to and why?

When you put all that together, then go right to political/agricultural/industrial/economical sabotage of USSR, and look into the real reasons for its collapse.

When there, compare and see which stage we are at now, since the patterns are identical.

When the fed defaults officially, American states will be forced into forming independent economic regions, while Corp America will strip mine the last of the economy and liquidate it to cover foreign dept, aka moving funds into personal of shore accounts. Kind of like Enron/World com, etc.

Daimler Chrysler rings a bell?

Here's a question to a red blooded patriotic Americans, how exactly do they feel about all that fine and affordable German engineering in their HEMI Durango's and Rams?

How about Ford? High gas prices is what forcing the latest layoffs right? Not the cheap Mexican labor and medical insurance costs?

Proud as we can be, and just as dumb and blind, all while our entire nation is being ripped of and chopped to pieces like some stolen car in a chop shop.

While the debate continues

After checking the rates I have decided that maybe posting the exchange rates once a month might be better than every week.. as the number just are not going to change very much either way each week.

My next posting of the exchange rates will therefore be posted on the first week of each month. my next posting will therefore be the first week of October. In the meantime.. please feel free to continue the debating(as there are many more factors than I am covering. And, I know so little about this field) very fascinating seeing different perspectives.

Originally posted by TONE23
My next posting of the exchange rates will therefore be posted on the first week of each month. my next posting will therefore be the first week of October.

Originally posted by iskander


Daimler Chrysler rings a bell?

Here's a question to a red blooded patriotic Americans, how exactly do they feel about all that fine and affordable German engineering in their HEMI Durango's and Rams?


How about Ford? High gas prices is what forcing the latest layoffs right? Not the cheap Mexican labor and medical insurance costs?

In July, the company pledged to accelerate its "Way Forward" restructuring plan, which when introduced in January called for the up to 30,000 job cuts as well as closing 14 facilities by 2012. The new cuts bring the total number of plant closures to 16.

Source

GM and Ford together?

Anyone even remotely familiar with the news lately knows GM and Ford are in serious trouble. Just last week, Ford slashed jobs and called for plant closings to try and rebound from fiscal distress. At closing Monday, Ford’s stock was selling at an anemic $7.82. GM finished the day at $31.61.

Source

DaimlerChrysler opens its first factory in China

BEIJING — DaimlerChrysler AG on Friday formally opened its first factory to make Mercedes-Benz and Chrysler sedans in China, joining a rush of foreign automakers scrambling for a share of the booming Chinese car market.

...

The company plans to expand its financing business and is talking to potential Chinese partners about possibly producing a lower-cost model for the U.S. market, said chairman Dieter Zetsche.

Source

What does all this news mean? That the US is losing it's position as industrial superpower and turning more towards a service-based economy. Europe and most other Western countries lost their industrial superiority ages ago and did already evolve into service-based economies a long time ago. The US is a relatively young country, with a young economy. Approximately 60 years the US has been the ''new'' industrial superpower, yet the Asians are taking over that position mainly caused because of a cheap labor force. It challenges the US to develop a new way of generating economic output. Every year we see an increase of industrial companies relocating to Asia; more products ''made in China''.

Asian companies aggressively penetrate Western markets, taking over market share from the old names such as Ford. This has been going on for quite some time, but especially due to high oil prices, this process gained in momentum. Consumers consider replacing their old heavy consuming Fords for less fuel consuming cars: the Asians. The old American brands did only recently adopt the Asian strategy of building fuel effective and hybrid cars, too late to survive the battle with the Asians.

I might sound pretty pessimistic, but reality doesn't seem to be very bright.


[edit on 19-9-2006 by Mdv2]

I saw a fact sheet once... but I cant find it now.. where it said we have something like 76% of our job market is service based.. and something like 19% was industrial... does that sound about right? or were those numbers way off base?

Originally posted by TONE23
I saw a fact sheet once... but I cant find it now.. where it said we have something like 76% of our job market is service based.. and something like 19% was industrial... does that sound about right? or were those numbers way off base?

industry: 20.4%
services: 78.7% (2005 est.)

Seen the size of the US economy, the industrial part really is of a very big importance.
Lately, I heard that there will be a very large demand (and shortage) the coming decenia for higher educated people as the economy continues to evolve.

Does anyone know what causes that I suddenly have to scroll horizontally?

Where do you find those figures? I looked at the DOL website but couldnt find those numbers. If you could hook me up with a link or something that would be great.

As far as the extra horizontal scrolling thing; I cannot answer that one, sorry.


*edit-statistical note*--- this is my 1000th post....

[edit on 9/19/2006 by TONE23]

UPDATE

Central Banks seem to be exchanging their Dollar reserves for Euro reserves:

Italy ( 03/08/2006 )

Italy's central bank has switched a quarter of its foreign currency reserves into sterling, dumping billions in US Treasury bonds, in the most dramatic move to date by a G7 country to slash exposure to the dollar.
...

Dollar holdings were cut from 84pc to 63pc, a shift that is certain to be analysed closely by traders as a gauge of sentiment among the 12 central banks of the eurozone system. The yen share fell from 14pc to 10pc.

...

An Italian official said the Banca d'Italia was taking action in advance of a dollar slide, widely expected as the US interest rate cycle peaks this summer and investors focus once again on the US's $800bn (£425bn) current account deficit.

...

Tony Norfield, chief currency analyst at ABN Amro, said it was likely that other euro-zone banks were also selling dollars, although most of the rest do not reveal the exact breakdown of their foreign currency holdings.
Mr Norfield said: "The Italians have been quite sneaky, but I wouldn't be surprised if others are doing the same thing. The Bank of France is worth watching."

...

However, for China and Japan, the two giants, with combined reserves of some $1,800bn, it is much harder to diversify smoothly out of the dollar.

Any sign that they are liquidating their holdings of US bonds could trigger a global stampede, causing a dollar crash and a broader financial crisis. The two countries would be left with sharply devalued holdings.

Telegraph

The fact that China and Japan cannot switch to other currencies easily, only confirms the worsening position of the Dollar. Norfield said


Sweden:

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar remained on the backfoot as the news earlier that the Swedish Riksbank has increased the level of euro reserves to the detriment of its dollar holdings sparked talk that other central banks could follow suit.

The Riksbank announced earlier today it has raised its holding of euros to 50 pct of reserves from 37 pct previously, while cutting its dollar holdings to 20 pct from 37 pct, pushing the euro as high as 1.2361 usd.

'The Riksbank announcement could well be a sign of things to come,' said 4CAST analyst Chris Furness.

More announcements on reserve diversification away from dollars in favour of the euro are likely from countries such as Russia and Middle Eastern countries in the coming weeks, he said.

There is also increasing talk among Middle Eastern countries about pricing oil in euros, he added, which would provide another boost for the euro.

Forbes

Syria:

CAIRO -- Syria, accused by the U.S. of supporting terrorism, plans to end its currency peg to the dollar by December to reflect closer trade ties with Europe, central bank Governor Adib Mayaleh said.

The Central Bank of Syria has already converted half its foreign-exchange reserves to euros, Mayaleh said in a telephone interview from Damascus, without being more specific. Syria's reserves, including gold, totaled $4.1 billion at the end of 2005, according tothe U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, similar to the amount held by Lithuania's central bank.

"We want to have a currency peg that will reflect our external trade," Mayaleh said yesterday. The European Union is Syria's largest trading partner, taking half of its exports, he said. Italy and France are the biggest destinations for Syrian goods abroad, according to data published by the CIA fact book.

GATA

Russia:

On Thursday, June 8, Russia became the latest in the list of countries that shifted a part of its Central Bank reserves from the dollar. Sergei Ignatyev, chairman of the Central Bank, said that only 50 percent of its reserves are now held in dollars, with 40 percent in euros and the rest in pounds sterling. Earlier it was believed that just 25-30 percent of Russia’s reserves were held in euros, with virtually all the rest held in dollars.

...

The Russian Central Bank’s move ties in with increasing signs that Middle Eastern oil exporters are also looking to diversify their reserves out of the dollar. “This is a bearish development for the dollar,” Chris Turner, head of currency research at ING Financial Markets, told the British Financial Times. “It reminds us that global surpluses are accumulating to the oil exporters,and Russia is telling us that an increasingly lower proportion of these reserves will be held in dollars. This suggests there is a trend shift away from the dollar.”

Source

The domino effect:

Central banks in Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates said that they were buying the euro. And Russia's finance minister, Aleksei Kudrin, complained about the dollar's "instability."

Herald Tribune

thanks for the update M,

This is one of my biggest concerns about the possible decline in the dollar.
If countries start dumping thier dollars... it is going to pull the rug right out from under us. And as you just highlighted it seems tobe a growing trend among nations and banking institutions.

The part I dont understand is about China and Japan... I am not understanding how they actually come into play here... I know they own alot of out 'debt'.. but What does that mean exactly and why is it difficult for them to dump their reserves? I know you know alot more about this than I do .. so anything you could do to help illustrate WHY it is difficult for China and Japan as the article above mentioned.. and just WHY that makes it even more of a problem.

thanks,
tone23

Originally posted by TONE23

The part I dont understand is about China and Japan... I am not understanding how they actually come into play here... I know they own alot of out 'debt'.. but What does that mean exactly and why is it difficult for them to dump their reserves?

No one would benefit from a Dollar collapse, except for terrorists and to the US considered 'rogue states', such as Iraq which actually tried to destabilize the Dollar, by introducing the Iraqi oil Bourse. Other examples are Venezuela and Iran. Most people still don't seem to understand that this is the best possible way of destroying the US power, however, terrorists and ''rogue states'' are perfectly aware of this.

As you stated, China, Japan, but also Europe are the three major US debt buyers (in the form of e.g. T-bills), which they buy at a specific interest rate. The Dollar has become so precarious that a press release stating that China or Japan would discontinue purchasing Dollars would be enough to make the Dollar crash.

Primarily China and Japan carry the US debt burden, which enables American to life their lives like they currently do. The power of making or breaking the US is the hands of foreigners. However, a Dollar Collapse would mean that China loses its largest consumer and simultaneously investors wouldn't be able anymore to invest in the Chinese economy, not to speak of the unrest it would cause among the Chinese population.

Though, they'll have to cope with one problem: others. Others/Central Banks are pulling investment out of the US and have begun selling large quantities of Dollar reserves this year, which causes an acceleration of the Dollar's depreciation, which automatically causes a loss of investment to US debt buyers. As stated, Japan and China cannot stop buying debts as it would cause an economic collapse but some day in the feature they'll lose trust in the US economy and will basically be forced to stop buying worthless investments. That's the reason why US economists and politicians stress to implement financial changes, waiting for much longer is not an option anymore, yet Bush rather chooses to ignore the problem and increases the taxes for the average Joe, which is no (long term) solution.


It's not that easy to explain it in English, yet I hope you are able to understand it

Well its another month and time to check the figures...

from: [url=http://www.xe.com/ucc/]

1.00 EUR(Euro) = 1.27278 USD (United States Dollars)
1 EUR = 1.27278 USD 1 USD = 0.785682 EUR

1.00 GBP (United Kingdom Pounds) = 1.88892 USD (United States Dollars)
1 GBP = 1.88892 USD 1 USD = 0.529404 GBP

compared from last month:

1.00 EUR (Euro) = 1.26720 USD (United States Dollars)
1 EUR = 1.26720 USD 1 USD = 0.789140 EUR

1.00 GBP (United Kingdom Pounds) = 1.86550 USD (United States Dollars)
1 GBP = 1.86550 USD 1 USD = 0.536050 GBP

not a big change in the numbers.. but the dollar is losing strength as illustrated above.

Haven't you guys figured it out already that they want Global Control, Global currency?

CASHLESS SOCIETY- exactly why they want the dollar abolished.

why do you think they are making the micro chips?

Why do you think they are ushering in all this new stuff.. is it to help you? NO It's to use it against us in order to bring about this new world order which we are already IN. It's just a matter of time before we see GOD AWFUL things happening.

You remember back in World War II, when the priest would warn the people about the concentration camps? And what was the public reaction?

"Oh you're crazy! They would never do that.."

Boy were they ever wrong!

Well that goes for us too! We conspiracy theorists are labled as "Terrorists" because we are trying to help you and spread the truth about the secret societies, what they want to do, global currency, global control... And again, same reaction.

"Oh you're crazy! They would never do that.."

I don't want to be here during 2012 saying "Boy were they ever wrong" again. Because that is the direction we are heading! Do you understand what I am saying!?

Nevermind.

[edit on 3-10-2006 by RavenWindfree]