EXCLUSIVE: Spin and Counterspin: New Bird Flu Mutation has 91% Fatality Rate in Humans

-Dr. James E. Hansen, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Originally posted by Valhall

And sofi does take things that are either false or severely misused to support her topics of interest or her theories. And she rarely listens to anyone that tries to point out the problems in the statements she makes. I don't respond to her posts anymore because she tends to make outlandish accusations against members who do dissent or try to show the errors in her theories...and she's done it to me. She will also tend to try to claim people are trying to shut her up. Well, seven pages of her going on about a statistic that was never accurate should prove that wrong!

You can't pull a lot of 12 birds, 11 of which died, from a population of infected birds and then say the virus has a 91% mortality rate and not expect some one who actually understands statistics to call you on it. It would have been just as legitimate an argument to just ignore the 1 bird out of 12 that made it and claim 100% mortality rate. Long story short - it's wrong.

Val - if you had read even the intro you would know the stat refers to human cases and deaths, NOT bird deaths: "...between March 1 and March 24 of 2006, the WHO reported 12 new H5N1 cases with 11 deaths." I provided links to the WHO's statistics - but here they are again.

WHO Cumulative Figures.

March 24, 2006: 186 Cases; 105 Deaths.
March 1, 2006: 174 Cases; 94 Deaths.
January 30, 2006:160 Cases; 85 Deaths.
December 30, 2005: 142 Cases; 74 Deaths.
January 28, 2004: 11 Cases; 8 Deaths.

As I have stated numerous times - I think the stats are skewed and inaccurate - and that there are many, many more human cases of H5N1 that are not reported because people are tested only when they are extremely sick.

But the authorities insist on insisting that people don't get bird flu. As a result, the mortality rate looks like it is high and climbing.

...the headline of this article is FALSE, MISLEADING of the facts, HYPERBOLIC to the extreme and - for this ATS member - EMBARRASSING. Has been from day one.

It's spin and counterspin. Just like the title says.


Our governments have a choice:

a) Admit that far more people are infected with H5N1 bird flu than is acknowledged officially; OR

b) Get stuck with a 91% fatality rate.

But they can't have it both ways.




Don't Like Other Peoples' Contributions?

...Works for me.



Ed to add bold, quote, link.





[edit on 4-5-2006 by soficrow]

Originally posted by Hamburglar
So why do you have a problem with me setting the record straight?

So allow me, then, to do the same...

I have been busy for the last few days and have not had the opportunity to frequent the board to the degree I generally like. I also most certainly did not anticipate that my simple post would evoke the kind of vitriolic response it received from you...or the subsequent volleys between Valhall and Regenmacher. Otherwise, I would have responded to you immediately and set the record straight...and perhaps avoided altogether the disgraceful place this thread appears to have visited.

You begin your response to my initial post with:

Originally posted by Hamburglar
Thus WHAT begins??!!??

...and then inartfully proceed to answer your own question with assumption laden accusations that expressly call into question my intelligence, integrity and motivations.

You state:

Originally posted by Hamburglar
In the interests of fairness, I’ll assume for now that you didn’t actually read beyond the headline of the article you posted. Had you actually read even the first line, you would have seen this (emphasis mine)

Authorities have discovered a mild form of avian influenza at a live bird market in New Jersey, but it is not the deadly H5N1 strain governments around the world are trying to contain, the state's agriculture department said.

Apparently, the fact that I accurately reported the headline of the article, "Mild form of bird flu found in New Jersey," escaped you completely. How did you derive that I intended to imply otherwise? Did you see me make the express statement that it was in fact H5N1?

The real irony of this, of course, is that my statement "Thus it begins..." was intended to encapsulate the very notion that the issue itself, with all of its associated uncertainties, is upon us in a very real way.

Your pontification concerning "integrity" is hypocritical at best, particularly when you make statements such as these:

Originally posted by Hamburglar
An outbreak of bird flu in N.J. wouldn’t mean a thing

And...

Originally posted by Hamburglar
Face facts man. The bird flu found in N.J. is no threat to us whatsoever. Even the article says so...Bottom line, that flu in N.J. is not a “major concern” at all. You are wrong. I’m sorry, but it is true. That flu is no more a concern than the scratchy throat you had last week or the cold you got over the winter. Even less, because the chances of you or any other person catching it are even lower.

That, despite the fact, the very article in question also proceeds to indicate:

"The market owner voluntarily depopulated his existing flock, and the market has undergone cleaning and disinfecting under New Jersey Department of Agriculture supervision," said Kuperus.

The market in Camden County will be inspected again by New Jersey's Division of Animal Health before being allowed to reopen.

Mild form of avian flu found in New Jersey

What would be the point, then, of the culling, the cleaning and the final inspection, if the discovery was of "no threat to us whatsoever"?

Moreover, you inaccurately characterize the statement made by the NJ Department of Agriculture:

The strain was found in a live bird market in Camden County. None of the birds in the market died from this virus, which is an indicator that the virus was low pathogenic and not harmful to humans," said a statement by New Jersey's Agriculture Secretary Charles Kuperus which was posted on Friday.

An "indicator" is hardly a definitive conclusion that no threat exists... Indeed, the article expressly indicates:

Kuperus said preliminary tests from the National Veterinary Services laboratory were negative for type N1 of the virus. More tests are pending at laboratories of the U.S. Agriculture Department in Ames, Iowa, to confirm the strain of the virus, he added.

Then there is this article:

Bird flu tests show good news

State investigators are awaiting final test results from a federal laboratory after finding a chicken and two ducks at a Camden County live poultry market that appear to have been infected with a mild version of bird flu...

Agents from the New Jersey Department of Agriculture in Trenton came across the birds last month during routine testing. The spot tests, in which inspectors swab the throats of chickens and the rectums of ducks for samples, showed the virus to be a nonlethal strain that has been found in about 100 birds in the state since tests began nearly a decade ago...

Final results showing precisely what strain of the virus has infected the Camden birds are imminent, according to Jeff Beach, a spokesman for the state agriculture department...

"What you don't want to happen is to have the virus around long enough to mutate." ...

Eradicating the infection is essential so the virus will not morph into the deadlier form that has decimated bird flocks in Asia and spread to 45 countries.

Sounds like Mr. Beach from the New Jersey Department of Agriculture in Trenton doesn't agree with your assertion that there is NO threat.

Reuters publishes the following:

On present understanding, H5 and H7 viruses are introduced to poultry flocks in their low pathogenic form. When allowed to circulate in poultry populations, the viruses can mutate, usually within a few months, into the highly pathogenic form. This is why the presence of an H5 or H7 virus in poultry is always cause for concern, even when the initial signs of infection are mild...

Both highly pathogenic and low pathogenic avian influenzas can infect humans but rarely do so...

An H7N7 low-pathogenic avian flu infected one person in the United States in 1959, for instance, although an outbreak of highly pathogenic H7N7 in 2003 infected 89 people in the Netherlands and killed one...

H9N2, H7N2, H7N3, and H5N1 avian influenza viruses have all infected human beings but until H5N1 first affected people, in Hong Kong in 1997, these infections rarely caused serious effects...

Source.

Does any of this mean that the "doom and gloom" is upon us? I have no clue...and of course my post never said otherwise.



[edit on 4-5-2006 by loam]

(post continued)

Originally posted by Hamburglar
What we are concerned about is misinformation and disinformation. We are concerned that time and again, these threads continue to spread falsehoods that contribute to an unnecessary panic.

In my opinion, you are so busy attacking ignorance, rather than denying it, that you've managed to spread a little "misinformation and disinformation" of your own.

I can respect differing opinions on this subject, but your assertion that I:

Originally posted by Hamburglar
...posted a link to an article that is inconsistent with a rational approach to H5N1, and completely consistent with an irrational, catch-all approach to fear-mongering and causing public panic. It is completely consistent with another member’s taking any news source, no matter how irrelevant, and posting it as some sort of “proof” that we are all going to die tomorrow from prion-induced bird flu. This sort of posting should be upbraided as soon as possible.

...is completely without merit.

Originally posted by Hamburglar
You know, loam, I am not your biggest supporter when it comes to what you post, but I always thought you had some integrity and tried to post honestly, so I was grudgingly forced to respect you for that. Was I mistaken?

No you were not.

However, honestly, under these circumstances, I can't say I share a similar confusion about you.


[edit on 4-5-2006 by loam]

I read in PhysOrg.news where the researchers at the childrens burn hospital had made some sort of breakthroug in developing a multi-viral flu vaccine. That would be wonderful news if such a vaccine could prevent a mutated form of H5N1 from infecting people.

Originally posted by soficrow
As I have stated numerous times - I think the stats are skewed and inaccurate - and that there are many, many more human cases of H5N1 that are not reported because people are tested only when they are extremely sick.

I've run across the following, which is hardly comforting:

Human influenza typically occurs following a 1- to 4-day latency with persistent viral shedding and infectivity up to 5 days following the onset of symptoms.[5,6] Given this, a confirmatory diagnostic test is only useful if administered during the time of active viral shedding. Testing beyond this time frame may result in negative results and confuse the clinical picture. Additionally, the test must be readily available and produce timely results to aid clinicians in proper diagnosis and treatment. Early confirmatory testing can lead to earlier specific therapy, which is especially important given the nonspecific symptoms associated with human influenza.[5] Rapid tests for highly infectious diseases like influenza are also beneficial for public health measures as they can detect outbreaks and lead to the implementation of control efforts.

Currently, viral cultures are the gold standard in the detection and confirmation of human influenza infections.[5,6] However, serologic testing is not ideal as it is not widely available, does not produce a rapid result/confirmation, and may require both acute and convalescent titers to produce accurate and reliable results. Therefore, it is not recommended for routine cases. An ideal test, especially in infectious outbreaks, should be widely available and provide rapid and reliable results. Rapid tests that provide results within 30 minutes could be used at the time of presentation, allowing for early detection of outbreaks while minimizing the risk of lost follow-up. Twelve rapid diagnostic tests are currently available in the United States. These rapid tests are not as reliable as viral culture and may not differentiate between influenza A and B or identify subgroups of influenza A. However, they offer unique advantages that render them more useful in clinical practice, especially when dealing with infectious outbreaks. These tests offer a sensitivity of 70% to 75% and specificity of 90% to 99%.[5] However, testing must be approached with caution as the predictive values and accuracy are strongly dependent on the prevalence of influenza and the timing of the test.

71st Annual Meeting of the American College of Chest Physicians

See also,

Scandalous Monitoring of H5N1 Avian Influenza (Bird Flu)

H5N1 Bird Flu False Negatives In Indonesia

Bird Flu: Diagnosis

Bird flu tests out-of-date, may have missed cases

Originally posted by loam

Originally posted by Hamburglar
So why do you have a problem with me setting the record straight?

So allow me, then, to do the same...

I have been busy for the last few days and have not had the opportunity to frequent the board to the degree I generally like. I also most certainly did not anticipate that my simple post would evoke the kind of vitriolic response it received from you...or the subsequent volleys between Valhall and Regenmacher. Otherwise, I would have responded to you immediately and set the record straight...and perhaps avoided altogether the disgraceful place this thread appears to have visited.

For starters, let me say that I think this thread has been in a disgraceful place for quite a while.

Next, I’ve noticed that often on this board, in our zeal to be right about our pet causes, we will often ignore what is staring us directly in the face. Often we will point to all sorts of articles and such, which we selectively quote in order to make it seem that the article is proving our point.

This is precisely what you’ve done with your first response here, my friend.

To keep it short, every one of your refutations actually furthers what I’ve been saying. In each case, where a threat is discussed, it is clear that the threat is to POULTRY not to humans. Just reread your quotes. There is no need for me to repost them here.

It is furthermore, quite clear, that I have been writing about the threat to humans, which is why your selective quoting of my own writing in some cases removes the part where I specifically mentioned us. I am not poultry, loam. Are you? If so, you’re certainly the smartest chicken out there, and we need to get you on television as soon as possible. I will be your agent/manager.

Meanwhile, let’s hope there is no N.J. flu near you, because if you are poultry, we will have to cull you. Why, you ask (and did ask)? Because while it may not be a threat to people, they certainly don’t want it to spread to chicken houses all over the place. That would mean tons of dead chickens, and no more McNuggets on the dollar menu. It is far better to cull one flock than lose them all to flu, even though that flu may be harmless to humans.

Otherwise, it is pretty obvious what I was talking about. Skew away, buddy, but it won’t make you correct. It will just make you seem desperate.

And, in the future, if your intentions lie contrary to the tiny amount you post, perhaps you should consider writing a longer post. I only hope that you’ll take off your angry pants before you read this, because I want you to read it for content, not for something to get mad about.

THE GOOD NEWS

In the pike: a universal flu vaccine (about time) - and a 4-hour test for H5N1 bird flu (conventional testing takes a week).

Vical bird flu vaccine stops H5N1, maybe others

A bird flu vaccine being developed by San Diego-based Vical Incorporated protects mice and ferrets against the feared H5N1 avian influenza virus, the company said on Tuesday.

It may also offer potential as a "universal" flu vaccine because it targets parts of the virus that all flu strains have, Vical and researchers testing the shot said. ...This so-called cross-protection would mean that new vaccines would not have to be formulated every flu season and could provide a chance to stockpile vaccine ahead of a pandemic.

Making a bird flu vaccine is big business. ...Research group Datamonitor believes the flu vaccine market could exceed $3 billion by 2010 in the top seven markets alone, against an estimated $1.6 billion worldwide in 2005.

Also see: St. Jude scientists produce vaccine that could fight bird flu: That technology was central to developing the vaccine, by Vical Inc. (NASDAQ: VICL) of San Diego.

State firm's fast flu test ready for trials

CombiMatrix's DNA microarray technology, based on a semiconductor chip, can provide positive identification of H5N1 within four hours, while conventional testing requires a week, Kumar said. Though successful in lab tests, it's never been tried in real-life situations.

BEATING A DEAD HORSE

Bird flu - and the other looming pandemics - could have been prevented. But prevention would cut into corporate profits. So our leaders made the decision to let the crises proceed unhindered, and play them for profit. Now the world's in a real pickle.

But some scientists just don't give up.

Expert: World should mount 'pre-emptive' strike against bird flu

The 1918 flu pandemic caught the world by surprise when it killed up to 40 million people, but experts are informed enough today to mount a pre-emptive strike against another such catastrophe, a leading bird flu scientist said Wednesday. ...The H5N1 bird flu virus has emerged as a possible candidate to become the next pandemic flu strain. ...Its unusual behavior has scientists worried. It can jump directly from birds to people, has the potential to spread over a large geographic distance via migratory birds and has already proven itself a menace to the world's huge domestic poultry industry.

But unlike in 1918 and during the smaller pandemics that followed in 1957 and 1968, each killing more than 1 million people, the world is better armed with more knowledge and resources, said John Oxford, a professor of virology at Queen Mary's University of London. ...More than 500 scientists, health experts and policy makers from 52 countries are scheduled to attend the Asia Medical Forum in Singapore organized by The Lancet medical journal. ..."How can we move this now from just sitting in our defensive position to a more pre-emptive, a more counterattack sort of mode?" Oxford said. "That means much more investment than we've got."

Another scientist said it's important to explore various methods through which the virus could spread, especially through the vast day-to-day movement of poultry worldwide. ..."Don't rush to blame the migratory birds straight away," said Kennedy Shortridge, emeritus professor of microbiology at the University of Hong Kong, who worked closely on the 1997 bird flu outbreak in Hong Kong that killed six people. ..."We've got to look at birds, we've got to look at flies, we've got to look at beetles, poultry manure, maggots," he said. "When you see these poultry operations, there's litter everywhere in many of them." ...he warned that other viruses should also not be overlooked.


Also see: A leading bird flu scientist says that while the 1918 flu pandemic that killed 40 (m) million people caught the world by surprise, experts are informed enough today to mount a pre-emptive strike.

More studies needed on how bird flu spreads

Reuters: Experts say nearly 150 types of bird flu pose threat

THE BAD NEWS

Critics are comparing the Bush administration's new and revised US Pandemic Plan to the Katrina fiasco - H5N1 bird flu has adapted to heat, so summer will not slow its spread in wild birds - and authorities now admit that H5N1 bird flu attacks different organs, not just the lungs.


Reuters UPDATE 2-US bird flu plan

The plan does not give specifics on who would get vaccinated first or who would be the first to get scarce antiviral drugs. Administration officials said research on vaccines is moving too fast to make it possible to plan yet. ...Some Democrats immediately attacked this omission. ..."A flu plan that doesn't say how to distribute vaccine is about as useful as a hurricane plan that doesn't say how to rescue people from a flood," Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy said.

"The one area that I continue to worry about in a very real way is the lack of resources. Planning for pandemic influenza at the local, state and federal level is not cheap," Osterholm (infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota who has been warning of the risks of a pandemic for years) added.

"Given the Department of Homeland Security's track record, I don't think I'm alone in raising concerns about whether they're prepared to execute and manage a crisis of this magnitude," said Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel.

H5N1 adapts to summer, water, heat

Influenza expert Dr. Robert Webster of the St. Jude Children`s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., told scientists at a Singapore conference organized by the medical journal The Lancet that H5N1 is now able to survive for longer in warm, moist conditions.

Scientists had hoped that reports of avian-influenza outbreaks would slow during the summer months, as older samples of H5N1 were most transmissible during the cooler months, from fall to early spring.

Webster warned against such complacency.

H5N1 attacks other organs

The deadly H5N1 virus does not only attack the lungs but other organs of human beings, the health chief said Wednesday, adding diverse treatments are needed. ...But Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok was not able to say what cell types are susceptible.

"According to experts' analysis, some recent human cases have involved not only infection of the respiratory tract, but other organs are being destroyed as well," Chow said after a business lunch. ...If it is true that the virus may not only infect the lung, Chow said, then the sole dependence on inhalable forms of antiviral drugs such as Relenza that are used to treat both influenza A and B will not treat the disease effectively.

"For the sake of prevention, we need to depend on different drugs," Chow said. ..."Our medical staff must realize the disease might not be limited to respiratory tract infection. We will have to conduct various tests." ...The exact means of how the disease develops in the human body remains a medical puzzle.

One of the world's leading experts on bird flu said Thursday the H5N1 virus is like nothing he's ever seen, and there are still way too many gaps in planning and knowledge for the world to grapple with it in the event of a pandemic. ..."I've worked with flu all my life, and this is the worst influenza virus that I have ever seen,'' said Robert G. Webster, a virologist at the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. "We have to realize that this influenza virus in poultry becomes systemic ... If that happens in humans, God help us.''

If a pandemic strain emerges "you will probably get infected, you will probably get very sick, but you probably won't die,'' he said. "So, I think we're missing out here.'' Webster said much more research is needed in many areas to understand the virus's behavior and transmissibility.

He said cultural issues are also preventing autopsies on victims killed by the H5N1 virus, hindering valuable scientific research. ...He said post-mortem examinations have been performed on less than six of the 113 people killed by the bird flu virus since it began ravaging Asian poultry stocks in late 2003. ..."The cultural ban in this region on autopsies has to be worked out somehow,'' he said. "Tissues have to be taken from cadavers to understand the biology of these viruses."

....Remember what I've been saying about chronic disease?


.

Live bird flu virus found in victim's blood

Live H5N1 avian flu virus can be isolated in the blood of its human victims, a finding that will be reported by Thai researchers in an upcoming issue of a scientific journal.

Evidence that H5N1 can spread via the bloodstream to parts of the body not normally attacked by influenza viruses confirms this particular flu strain poses special challenges for both patient treatment and infection control, experts say. It also raises theoretical questions about the safety of the donated blood system should H5N1 trigger a pandemic.

“This is the first report of a high amount of (H5N1) virus in blood in humans,” University of Ottawa virologist Earl Brown said of the findings, outlined in a letter slated for publication in the June issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases.

“That's a bit surprising because blood is poisonous to flu virus. If you take any blood ... and add it to flu, you kill it (the virus). This showed that the virus was living in the blood,” said Dr. Brown, who was not an author of the letter.

More...

Well, this is certainly very odd.

H5N1 continues to violate all of the conventional rules....

[edit on 5-5-2006 by loam]

[loam - that is an AMAZING find - BRB to comment.]


A total of 206 human H5N1 bird flu cases were confirmed between 2003 and May 5, 2006, with 114 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

Many scientists speculate that the actual number of human cases is much higher, but untested and unreported. Lack of surveillance - and funds for surveillance programs - is flagged as hindering the world's ability to prevent and limit pandemics.

The world's infectious disease surveillance systems are in “the Dark Ages,” according to Roy Anderson, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College, London, and chief scientific adviser to the British Ministry of Defence.


‘Surveillance funds needed to prevent flu pandemic’

World flu pandemicGovernments need to invest substantial sums to bring infectious disease surveillance systems out of “the Dark Ages” if they want a chance of preventing, or limiting, the effects of a future influenza pandemic, a top scientist warned on Thursday. ...Roy Anderson, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College, London, and chief scientific adviser to the British Ministry of Defence, called for the creation of “an international digital web-transmitted system” in real time to alert specialists of flu cases as they occur around the world.

Speaking in a personal capacity at the Lancet’s pandemic influenza conference in Singapore, he said early detection and analysis of the virus would be vital in efforts to prevent a local epidemic becoming a pandemic, using a containment strategy of antiviral drugs and quarantining that would in any case, prove “bloody tough”.

In the event of a pandemic, he stressed it would take a fortnight after initial human infections for scientists to understand the virus’ “attack rate” and characteristics, and rapid dissemination of this information would be crucial to preparing an effective response just as it spread to other countries.

Human surveillance is lacking, and surveillance of poultry and wild birds is inadequate. Programs and systems are not in place, and diagnostic tests require cutting edge technology and time. A 4-hour test to identify H5N1 bird flu was just developed, but is not yet on the market (see above).


Poor surveillance networks hurting bird flu fight

Asia's surveillance networks to detect bird flu in poultry and people are so varied and so weak in some countries they are hampering the fight against the disease, health experts said on Thursday. ..."A third of the world's population is in India and China, and the surveillance activities are rudimentary," Lance Jennings, clinical virologist at Canterbury Health Laboratories in New Zealand, told Reuters.

Japan, Taiwan and Thailand were among the few countries widely seen as having the right networks to find and contain the H5N1 virus in poultry and humans, Jennings said on the sidelines of a bird flu conference in Singapore. ...But impoverished countries such as Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar had no networks in place, he said, meaning a delay in reporting cases and risking the spread of outbreaks. ...A senior World Health Organisation official agreed.

"In many countries, human surveillance is not up to date or high quality," said Jai Narain, director of the WHO's communicable diseases department for Southeast Asia. ...In Indonesia, Narain said, surveillance among poultry was a major concern because of a lack of compensation for farmers, who often try to hide their backyard chickens and ducks when health inspectors visit.

[edit on 5-5-2006 by soficrow]

A number of countries in the throes of serious bird flu outbreaks are underreporting the extent of the problem, generally because they do not have the money, veterinary expertise or health systems to track the disease adequately in animals, international health officials said yesterday.

***

Migratory Birds Did Not Spread Bird Flu

Defying the dire predictions of health officials, the flocks of migratory birds that flew south to Africa last fall, then back over Europe in recent weeks did not carry the deadly bird flu virus or spread it during their annual journey, scientists have concluded.

Some SARS deaths now believed to be bird flu. Man died from H5N1 two years before China reported infections.

...The newly disclosed case in Beijing means "there may be more jumps from birds to people than we realized," said Baden of the medical journal.

***

China fears bird flu becoming more infectious. Latest case indicates virus may be as dangerous in summer as winter.

China’s confirmation on Thursday that a 31-year-old truck driver in the southern city of Shenzhen had been infected by the disease has brought uneasiness.

...Lo Wing-lok, an infectious disease expert in Hong Kong, said China must explain how the truck driver came to be infected when it claimed there were no H5N1 outbreaks in birds in the area.

...“I don’t know if there is insufficient surveillance or if the data is too frightening to be disclosed,” he said.

***

Report: USDA lacks plan for bird flu testing. Current screening methods unable to accurately monitor virus' spread.

The inspector general found 46 unresolved investigations of potential bird flu, 43 of which were not completed for more than six months. ...The department closed the cases after investigators asked about them, saying the work had been finished but not recorded.

...Officials still don’t know how much poultry in the U.S. already is being tested or monitored, the report said. ...And while testing has been done by states and live bird markets, the findings haven’t been analyzed to draw conclusions about flu in U.S. bird populations or detect changes in types of flu or how widespread it is, the report said. ...“Thus, it is difficult or impossible to reach valid conclusions based on the data,” the report said.

I'd be suspicious of any respiratory deaths caused by viral infection, these days.

H5N1 bird flu enters the body more commonly by the gut - and doesn't spread efficiently by the respiratory route. There may be many more cases of bird flu in humans than originally thought - so maybe research should focus on chronic and systemic effects, not just fatalities.



ed for typo

[edit on 3-7-2006 by soficrow]

Originally posted by soficrow
H5N1 bird flu enters the body more commonly by the gut - and doesn't spread efficiently by the respiratory route. There may be many more cases of bird flu in humans than originally thought - so maybe research should focus on chronic and systemic effects, not just fatalities.



ed for typo

[edit on 3-7-2006 by soficrow]

That statement seems to suggest that the H5N1 viral contaminents (particles) may be larger and denser than previously suggested. Perhaps it has mutated into something other than 'airborne'.

Not new information, I'm just (pretty much) sceptical of everything (disease related) these days.

Thanks, Sofi!

-Sour

Originally posted by SourGrapes
...the H5N1 viral contaminents (particles) may be larger and denser than previously suggested. Perhaps it has mutated into something other than 'airborne'.

The fear is that it will become airborne - airborne transmission is not efficient so far...

Virologists know (H5N1) infection occurs through contact with blood, feces and other body fluids, and WHO officials recently reiterated the flu virus is also airborne, posing even a greater threat than AIDS.

***

Birds spread the disease through droppings and other secretions, which often contaminate shared feed and water.

***

(H5N1), spread through bird feces, saliva and infected water... "You have to test the birds and test the water," Fair said. "If you find it in a lake, influenzas can hang around for a month. Some studies have shown it staying over 200 days." ...The longer the disease remains in the water, the more likely it is to find other host species, Fair said.

***

A German scientist said Tuesday the entry of faeces from infected poultry into the food chain via fish was a likely cause of the global spread of bird flu - and not migrating wild birds.

'We will have to live with bird flu in the future,' said Reichholf, adding: 'Perhaps we already have been for years and just didn't know it because ...dead birds ...were not tested.'

Thanks, Sofi!

-Sour

You're welcome.

Well, I do know one thing for sure about this H5N1 virus: The more I learn on this topic, the more aware I am of what I don't know! The medical reports and research has brought about more questions, than answers, in the medical field.

I'd say it's all going to get very interesting around late Fall, early winter. I know you put quite a lot of personal time into the research of prions and viral diseases, what's your forecast of this virus? That is, if you had to pick a WTSHTF date?

Mine? I'd say it's already being transmitted (quite easily, BTW) H2H2H. If I had to choose a country, I'd say 'Indonesia'. However, I believe they (TPTB) are attempting to keep it contained as much as possible, while allowing it to mutate and spread.

Unfortunately, the disease needs to mutate and spread for the development of a proper vaccine. Allowing the spread in a semi-controlled environment, without sufficient international travel, is prime. Even then, the vaccine will be very limited. We'll see 2 or 3 waves of this disease before it's over. (IMO)

-Sour

Originally posted by SourGrapes

Unfortunately, the disease needs to mutate and spread for the development of a proper vaccine.

Not true, apparently. Check out this article (the vaccine info is on the 3rd page, I think):

Deception Dominates World Health Organization's Bird Flu Releases

If ever there was a need for clear and accurate information about the spreading and rapidly mutating avian influenza, it is now as the threat of a pandemic looms increasingly large. At a time when governments and individuals around the world are making preparations to battle a potentially life-altering disaster, there is no need for a group of bureaucratic elites to decide what information people are capable of handling.

The U.N.'s World Health Organization (WHO) has published its guidelines for the communicating of information about disease outbreaks, but these guidelines have not prevented a deliberate culture of deception from dominating the statements WHO makes to the press.

It has been suggested that WHO does not want people to panic, hence they are not candid when significant events in the evolution of a pandemic are unfolding.

FYI - I disagree with the author's statements that the WHO decides to withhold information from the public. IMO the WHO is being held hostage by its funders, and does NOT determine its own communications policies.


More news:

Bird flu pandemic could claim $800bln in first year alone - WHO

A bird flu pandemic could inflict hundreds of billions of dollars in economic losses within a year, an assistant director-general of the World Health Organization said Monday.

Margaret Chan said the virus was mutating to spread to humans and could cause global economic losses of $800 billion in the first year of the pandemic alone, according to data of the World Bank.

***

Death toll of bird flu rises to 42 in Indonesia

***

What you should do with a dead bird

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I didn't see anything on vaccines. I read the article, in full, then went back and scanned pages 1-3.

Hmmm? Who's been messing with the media press releases again (satire - well, kind of), or did I read over it. Damn that Speed Reading and writing class from my first yr in college. No wonder everyone got pass/fail for grade, and only one credit! sheesh


"Who's that knocking at my door"? Nobody there, it's only you and me.