EXCLUSIVE: Spin and Counterspin: New Bird Flu Mutation has 91% Fatality Rate in Humans

Hamburglar, just who you think your fooling with that load of incongruent crap.

Of the two lines Loam posted evokes 10+ paragraphs vile, abusive and lie-ridden garbage from you and then you actually have the unmitigated gall to point out TOC violations?

You were concerned and now it's all hyped up propaganda eh? I see you change your tune, when it depends who you respond to:

Originally posted by Hamburglar
My sister has a Ph.D. in exotic avian immunology and is a professor of animal science in California, and my father is a former professor of poultry science. This is something near and dear to my family, and it has me worried. I hope that their exposure to other strains of avian flu will afford them some protection, but I doubt it will, and they doubt it as well.


Sucks, don’t it?
source

Maybe you should start posting your sister's and father's publications or we can conclude you made up false and misleading statements about that too.

So far, you are amply demonstrating that tv show will make a vast amount more sense than your prevaricating prattle.

May Sweeps week cranks out bird flu thriller:
Bird Flu Hitting TV Screens May 9
''Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America''

[edit on 3-5-2006 by Regenmacher]

Wait a minute, Regenmacher, I strongly disagree. I don't see anything in Hamburglar's post that would give you leeway to claim the bolded statement from his previous post you quote is not true. In fact, he reiterated his father and his sister's positions in this area of expertise in the post you allude to in this thread. If anything, the bolded statement you have in your quote supports Hamburglar's position of irritation. The finding in New Jersey is of one of the "other strains of avian flu" to which Hamburglar states he, and his family members, hope helps them have immunity to H5N1 if they are ever exposed.

And sofi does take things that are either false or severely misused to support her topics of interest or her theories. And she rarely listens to anyone that tries to point out the problems in the statements she makes. I don't respond to her posts anymore because she tends to make outlandish accusations against members who do dissent or try to show the errors in her theories...and she's done it to me. She will also tend to try to claim people are trying to shut her up. Well, seven pages of her going on about a statistic that was never accurate should prove that wrong!

You can't pull a lot of 12 birds, 11 of which died, from a population of infected birds and then say the virus has a 91% mortality rate and not expect some one who actually understands statistics to call you on it. It would have been just as legitimate an argument to just ignore the 1 bird out of 12 that made it and claim 100% mortality rate. Long story short - it's wrong.

Hamburglar's words may have been harsh, but they weren't prattle - no more so than sofi's. And I don't see any reason for you to insinuate he's lying about anything simply because he has called the premise of this thread's original article misleading. It is. At the very least it's hyperbole. Out in the real world this would be considered lying with statistics.

[edit on 5-2-2006 by Valhall]

Originally posted by Valhall
Wait a minute, Regenmacher, I strongly disagree.

Then you have failed to see that all banter was in response to a single line "Thus it begins....". The response facade to Loam was really a veiled attack against Sofi and laced with bogus exaggerations, which is also blantant hypocrisy.

So maybe I should start calling you whacked out and an obfuscating person who posts threads of garbage in all my responses to others, and then you can tell me how marvelous it is.

Any low-pathogenic strain can develop into a deadly strain if it stays in the area long enough and you better damn well believe its a major concern, whether it's a mild strain of avian flu or not.

Keep it in the now...were one line means: don't have a cow.



[edit on 2-5-2006 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by Regenmacher

Any low-pathogenic strain can develop into a deadly strain if it stays in the area long enough and you better damn well believe its a major concern, whether it's a mild strain of avian flu or not.

Any low-pathogenic strain can also develop immunity in the animals/people infected by it...to where they would have a better chance of surviving a more virulent strain. In fact, I venture to guess the probability of one of these outcomes versus the other is most likely quite even.

My question is: Where is the worth in spinning the negative hyperbole on a situation? If we are trying to keep awareness of the H5N1 threat (which is real) it behooves us to NOT desensitize those around us by twisting something to an extreme negative (i.e. whipping of fear over something that doesn't warrant it). We run the risk of being ignored when the real bird hits the real fan.

Originally posted by Valhall
In fact, I venture to guess the probability of one of these outcomes versus the other is most likely quite even.

My question is: Where is the worth in spinning the negative hyperbole on a situation?

Quite even is worse then Russian roulette and few are foolhardy enough to play that game.

The hit count on the thread says ignoring bird flu isn't a problem either and it's quite a popular thread. I am not desensitized by reading, are you? Polls say the majority is not desensitized about bird flu either. So do you have telelpathic abilities that enable you to speak for all others or are just making up assumptions about this thread, cause it assauges your ego?

America loves big drama and, shock&awe or they lose interest fast. Considering the forum is about "conspiracies" you think they all are coming here for positive facts and happy news? To conclude avian flu is being spun into a hyperbole, that would also imply you have a crystal ball and can see into the future. My advice is don't buy Tyson stock and your crystal ball is broken.

Speculation is what it all about..not stroking the ego or trying to rationalize judgment calls.



[edit on 2-5-2006 by Regenmacher]

No, I don't imply anything. I'm outright stating the headline of this article is FALSE, MISLEADING of the facts, HYPERBOLIC to the extreme and - for this ATS member - EMBARRASSING. Has been from day one.

Originally posted by Valhall
No, I don't imply anything. I'm outright stating the headline of this article is FALSE, MISLEADING of the facts, HYPERBOLIC to the extreme and - for this ATS member - EMBARRASSING. Has been from day one.

Well if it's so embarassing and all that other negative rot, then why are you continually posting in and reading the thread? That would indicate your masochistic, if you really believed in what you say.

Me thinks you just want to fight and argue for those ambiguous ego points and it really doesn't matter what the subject is, cause deep down the thread makes your day!

Don't judge a thread by it's title either and anyone with a lick of sense can see how the title was derived. So did you pay that quarter to see the two headed bearded lady?

Remember, flu testing is fallible just like human judgement calls:


To err on the side of caution is a virtue...




[edit on 2-5-2006 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by Regenmacher

Originally posted by Valhall
Wait a minute, Regenmacher, I strongly disagree.

Then you have failed to see that all banter was in response to a single line "Thus it begins....". The response facade to Loam was really a veiled attack against Sofi and laced with bogus exaggerations, which is also blantant hypocrisy.

First, thanks, Valhall. I appreciate that you get what I’m saying, and I appreciate your help in saying it.

Next, Regenmacher, congrats on your WATS.

Now the meat…What difference does it make if loam’s post was 1 line or 13,000 lines? The fact remains that a non-H5N1 strain in N.J. is not the bird flu we should be worrying about. It is certainly not the one that the news has us all worried about. It is certainly not the one that may go pandemic anytime in the near (or likely distant) future.

The fact remains that loam posted a link to an article that is inconsistent with a rational approach to H5N1, and completely consistent with an irrational, catch-all approach to fear-mongering and causing public panic. It is completely consistent with another member’s taking any news source, no matter how irrelevant, and posting it as some sort of “proof” that we are all going to die tomorrow from prion-induced bird flu. This sort of posting should be upbraided as soon as possible.

The fact remains that this article in no way supports a conclusion of “Thus it begins.” Instead, its first line states that it is not H5N1. That kind of post should be taken to task. You got an award for, ostensibly, critical thinking, so this shouldn’t be a big leap for you.

And, the fact remains that I didn’t think my “attack” against soficrow was all that veiled. I’ll try to make it more obvious in the future. However, that was secondary to my concern that loam was going down the same road.

Finally, I’m not sure what “bogus exaggerations” I made, but I’d love for you to let me know…

Originally posted by Regenmacher
So maybe I should start calling you whacked out and an obfuscating person who posts threads of garbage in all my responses to others, and then you can tell me how marvelous it is.

Perhaps you should, if it will make you feel like you’ve accomplished something. But, would you be correct? At the end of it all, could you stand back and say, “I was right”? I doubt it. I am quite clear in my assertions, and do my best to back them up wherever possible. I don’t believe that I try to hijack my own threads and the threads of others and turn them into the same old thread about a single topic (prions/chronic disease, in this case). And, I think that I’ve been pretty consistent in my statements on this situation, as I know Valhall will probably remember.

Originally posted by Regenmacher
Any low-pathogenic strain can develop into a deadly strain if it stays in the area long enough and you better damn well believe its a major concern, whether it's a mild strain of avian flu or not.

Sure, Regenmacher, which is why we have airborne AIDS in Africa and common colds that kill millions a day. Except wait a minute, we don’t have those things. Gee could it be that your oversimplification is completely inaccurate?

Face facts man. The bird flu found in N.J. is no threat to us whatsoever. Even the article says so. What it doesn’t say is why it should even exist as an article at all. I think it is to scare people. Get them to buy more papers, buy more drugs, and make the most money off what may or may not be a pandemic. Or, it’s just bored reporters with nothing else to report on.

Bottom line, that flu in N.J. is not a “major concern” at all. You are wrong. I’m sorry, but it is true. That flu is no more a concern than the scratchy throat you had last week or the cold you got over the winter. Even less, because the chances of you or any other person catching it are even lower.

So why do you have a problem with me setting the record straight?

Originally posted by Regenmacher

Well if it's so embarassing and all that other negative rot, then why are you continually posting in and reading the thread? That would indicate your masochistic, if you really believed in what you say.

Woops! Now you did the same thing to me you did to Hamburglar. See - I HAVEN'T BEEN POSTING IN IT! It wasn't until you insinuated Hamburglar was lying - JUST BECAUSE HE CALLED A SPADE A SPADE I GUESS - that I got involved.

Me thinks you just want to fight and argue for those ambiguous ego points and it really doesn't matter what the subject is, cause deep down the thread makes your day!

And me thinks the series of events that have led to this back and forth was initiated with you thinking you knew something you didn't. Your mental acrobatics at trying to formulate some case against Hamburglar weren't impressive - neither are the ones you are now engaged in against me. I do note - RATHER IRONICALLY - that in this thread is evidence of birds with like feathers running together - with a mortality rate of 91% no less. How interesting at the similar tactics.

Don't judge a thread by it's title either and anyone with a lick of sense can see how the title was derived. So did you pay that quarter to see the two headed bearded lady?

EXACTLY - anyone with a lick of sense can see EXACTLY how the title was derived - that would be the part that causes some of us heartburn. The headline is free - and the ignore button won't make it go away - and come to find out she was standing on her head...

she didn't even have a beard. We all tried to look the other way, it was too late.

Originally posted by Hamburglar
So why do you have a problem with me setting the record straight?

The setting it straight in your opinion is to remain foolhardy and assume beyond the scope of reality, like those that sat in New Orleans when Katrina came ashore saying,"Don't worry be happy!" So what did some get for miscalculating potentials and risks? Drowning to death and no second chances.

Bush fear mongering or cautious? Do you trust your government or not? If not, then the tests could be lies too, or is it that you will practice selective egocentric beliefs whether they are right or wrong, fact or fiction.



Now tell me how you and only you guarantee everything is a-okay in NJ when the they are still testing?

A strain of bird flu not dangerous to people turned up at a live poultry market in South Jersey during routine testing last week and samples are undergoing further tests, the state Department of Agriculture said. Newsday

Originally posted by Hamburglar
Face facts man. The bird flu found in N.J. is no threat to us whatsoever.
Bottom line, that flu in N.J. is not a “major concern” at all. You are wrong. I’m sorry, but it is true.

Your statements are false and the facts are contrary to your opinion:


The always fallible human is prone to errors. So do you really think anyone would consider you a wise person when you error on the side of death? I think not.




[edit on 2-5-2006 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by Regenmacher

Originally posted by Hamburglar
So why do you have a problem with me setting the record straight?

Bush fear mongering or cautious? Do you trust your government or not?

What has that to do with anything we’ve been discussing? Wait, don’t answer, I’ll do it for you. It has nothing to do with what we’ve been discussing. This is precisely the deliberate obfuscation to which I earlier referred. Interesting, though, that instead of twisting it to prions, like soficrow, you twist the subject to your cause célèbre, which is hating on Bush and the current administration.

Originally posted by Regenmacher
The setting it straight in your opinion is to remain foolhardy, like those that sat in New Orleans when Katrina came ashore saying," Don't worry be happy!" So what did some get for miscalculating potentials?. Death and no second chances.

Don’t tell me my opinions, friend. You haven’t bothered to listen to them yet, so you hardly qualify as an expert on them. My “opinion” is actually that setting it straight means remaining diligent against the tidal wave of garbage that is kicked up by Hurricane Soficrow. It is to not be panicked when there is no cause for panic.

My “opinion” is that to cower at the merest mention of bird flu, regardless of whether it is THE bird flu is “foolhardy.”

My “opinion” is that you have yet to address what I and Valhall have actually been talking about. Instead, you’ve tried to bait us into other arguments that are irrelevant and often absurd. Try to take a step back from your anger for a minute and look at what is going on in this thread (and others if you have a couple of years free to read them all).

What we are concerned about is misinformation and disinformation. We are concerned that time and again, these threads continue to spread falsehoods that contribute to an unnecessary panic.

You noted earlier that Americans need constant stimulation, shock and awe, so to speak. One would guess from your tone that you think that is a bad thing. Wouldn’t you then agree, that we should seek to curtail the constant flood of “shock and awe” that keeps this panic-driven culture herded around on a daily basis? That’s what we’ve been saying all along, Regenmacher. Why can’t you get that?

Originally posted by Regenmacher

...samples are undergoing further tests, the state Department of Agriculture said.

Now tell me how you can guarantee everything is a-okay in NJ when the they are still testing?

So I am wrong and this is a lie, ehh?

What are you really asking? Do you really think selective quoting of an article that clearly states that they have already tested it and now are just “confirming” the earlier tests is the way to “get me”? Good luck with that tactic buddy!

Meantime, no amount of selective quoting can change the fact that the N.J. bird flu is not a threat to us. I never said that H5N1 is not a threat to us or that it doesn’t have the potential to become pandemic in humans. These are distinct flus. THEY ARE NOT THE SAME THING!

We can all quote selectively, that doesn’t mean that what we quote is then correct, does it? See for yourself how silly it is. I got this beauty by selectively quoting you!

Originally posted by Regenmacher in various different sentences throughout the thread
I am… a…
Source

Originally posted by Regenmacher in various different sentences throughout the thread
psychotic nut…and…I…hate…God…and…Bush
Source

And, your quote from alertnet doesn’t show that the N.J. flu is a threat either. Did you not understand when reading it that it was referring to the threat to poultry, not the threat to humans? If you didn’t understand that, let me reiterate it for you; the presence of an H5 or H7 virus in poultry is always cause for concern to poultry farmers. Not to everyday people.

Think for just a second on how common bird flu outbreaks are. Do you really believe that if it were so easy to become highly pathogenic and deadly to humans, we would even be alive to have this discussion? We would have all died from bird flu already, or our parents would have died before we could have been born.

Originally posted by Regenmacher
The fallible human is prone to error.

You’re right about that; does that mean you’ll be apologizing to Valhall and me for your misunderstanding anytime soon? I think not…

Originally posted by Valhall
And me thinks the series of events that have led to this back and forth was initiated with you thinking you knew something you didn't. Your mental acrobatics at trying to formulate some case against Hamburglar weren't impressive - neither are the ones you are now engaged in against me.

Nothing is impressive about pointing out abusive negative behavior, since it's more a pitiful display of civility than anything else. So is defending or condoning abusive behavior.

Originally posted by Valhall
EXACTLY - anyone with a lick of sense can see EXACTLY how the title was derived - that would be the part that causes some of us heartburn. The headline is free - and the ignore button won't make it go away

I would suggest you stay away from libraries, media stands and news racks if titles give you heartburn. That and your apt to get arrested for disorderly conduct, if you act on your emotions in those public places. That and you look real silly, like now.

The greatest threat presented by birds is the "chicken little syndrome" which is nothing more than an organized attempt to peddle fear. Folks, the sky is not falling and the likelyhood of you contracting "avian flu" lies somewhere between slim and none. AIDS, SARS, Ebola, West Nile, Anthrax and like have been used in the past to infect people with "chicken little syndrome" and so it is with "avian flu".

I'd like to see this thread evolve back to some type of discussion about issues related to H5N1, the reality, the hype, and especially the facts.

Personality disputes will end, beginning with this post. No exceptions.

Millions of dollars that went poof is a major concern and effects the standard of living for 1000's of folks.



About RMS








[edit on 2-5-2006 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by Regenmacher

Millions of dollars that went poof is a major concern and effects the standard of living for 1000's of folks.

Weird supposition: What percentage are illegal immigrants? Not the stockholders, the workers? A good deal I understand. I can't help but to tie this to the big bruhaha being made over illegals lately. Did you ever think that some of this could be hype because so many illegals work at Tyson, and the rest of the chicken farms? Add a healthy dose of asian biggotry to the mix and while they may not be spinning it politically, there's an undercurrent there for sure.

Once they kill the birds, the jobs will be gone and that'll put a real squeeze on some immigrant families--illegals or not.


Ok, that said. In February I attended a professional conference where one of the keynote speakers came from this outfit, crisisexperts.com....

His topic? Prepare Your Company For A Bird Flu Pandemic

It's selling, folks.

Forward thinking companies are already beginning to plan for the possibility.

...

For those companies that have already moved work off-shore, to Southeast Asia, China and Mexico, planning is even more important because conditions in many of those countries and healthcare shortcomings will exacerbate the impact of a pandemic.

The disease has already been confirmed in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam.

To compound the threat, companies doing business in those countries have people traveling back and forth regularly. In fact, CDC is already warning people that plan to visit Asian countries for more than ten days to immediately go to hospital with any hint of pneumonia or respiratory problems.

Healthcare insurers and providers should already be developing their plan, and charitable organizations need to prepare, also. If you depend on volunteers, and they are sick or afraid of getting sick, you will be impacted. If you depend on individual and corporate funding, and work is slowed or temporarily stopped by a pandemic, you will suffer immediate and significant financial loss.

[edit on 2-5-2006 by psyopswatcher]

Originally posted by psyopswatcher
Did you ever think that some of this could be hype because so many illegals work at Tyson, and the rest of the chicken farms? Add a healthy dose of asian biggotry to the mix and while they may not be spinning it politically, there's an undercurrent there for sure.

Good observation Psyopswatcher.

The government will always work on our fear in ways that abuse US citizens for their goals of a bigger government and more control. Today the Fed released the new US bird flu road map. Timing is everything, and I doubt it just coincidental in regards to the illegal immigrant issue.

HHS report outlines actions to prepare America-region for flu pandemic.

www.pandemicflu.gov...

Bird flu report: States shouldn't count on federal rescue
In otherwords, depend on yourself and not the Fed..remember Katrina.

Meanwhile one strain is not all that is to be concerned about:



It would be all fine and dandy indeed if markets and people acted in accordance with logic and rationality, but they don't and they historically never have. To stay ahead of the game is to know that fear and panic are powerful market forces and will be used as tools. It is up to the informed consumer to choose if they will be prey or a victim of these market forces or if they plan for those rainy days.

Caution pays off, and foolishness doesn't... the piper always collects.

H5N1 bird flu is worth watching at least because it has decimated the poultry industry in the developing world.

As I have stated and restated - I think H5N1 is endemic in humans already, in a mild form which I believe will confer immunity.

Still, it could mutate into a virulent form - as could numerous other flus and microbes that are mutating rapidly and adapting to our polluted, contaminated and remade world.

The deadly H5N1 bird flu which is currently sweeping across the globe is not the only potential candidate virus for the next human flu pandemic strain, experts have warned.

***

The Bush administration's pandemic plan remains in the news:

A flu pandemic would cause massive disruptions lasting for months, and cities, states and businesses must make plans now to keep functioning - and not count on a federal rescue, the Bush administration said.

Bird flu plan draws criticism

Here is the first report on the plan: U.S. bird flu plan outlines worst-case scenario

The government forecasts massive disruptions if bird flu or some other super-strain of influenza arises, with as much as 40 percent of the national work force off the job, but it doesn't foresee closing U.S. borders to fight the spread, according to a draft of the national response plan obtained Monday by The Associated Press.

An outbreak could lead the government to limit international flights, quarantine exposed travelers and otherwise restrict movement in and around the country.

But a complete shutdown of the border would not be likely, nor would it do more than slow the pandemic's spread by a few weeks, according to the plan that is being finalized by Bush administration officials for release Wednesday at the White House.

.

Originally posted by soficrow

The government forecasts massive disruptions if bird flu or some other super-strain of influenza arises, with as much as 40 percent of the national work force off the job, but it doesn't foresee closing U.S. borders to fight the spread, according to a draft of the national response plan obtained Monday by The Associated Press.

An outbreak could lead the government to limit international flights, quarantine exposed travelers and otherwise restrict movement in and around the country.

But a complete shutdown of the border would not be likely, nor would it do more than slow the pandemic's spread by a few weeks, according to the plan that is being finalized by Bush administration officials for release Wednesday at the White House.

"... it doesn't foresee closing U.S. borders to fight the spread", but it will use it as a convenient reason to get passenger info...

DHS, HHS make secret pact to share airline passenger info

The departments of Health and Human Services and Homeland Security have a secret agreement to exchange airline passenger information as part of a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plan to help combat pandemic flu, the Air Transport Association (ATA) said in a filing with the CDC.

"CDC plans flight e-tracking" [GovHealthIT.com, Nov. 23, 2005]

CDC propsoed passenger tracking regulation [CDC]

ATA Comments on CDC passenger data rules [CDC] (.pdf)

ACLU comments on CDC passenger data rules [CDC] (.pdf)

EU/U.S. passenger data ageement [EU] (.pdf)

Originally posted by psyopswatcher

"... it doesn't foresee closing U.S. borders to fight the spread", but it will use it as a convenient reason to get passenger info...

Interesting plan, dontcha think?




MORE LINKS

* Implementation Plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza. pdf

* Avian Influenza: Human Pandemic Concerns, a report from the Council for Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST).

* Avian Influenza: Trade Issues pdf

* Pandemic Influenza Planning: A Guide for Individuals and Families, information on what citizens can do to prepare for a pandemic, from the U.S. government. pdf


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