Future World Superpowers?

hi all, well a lot of talk about superpowers on here and an UPCOMING china!!

so ive decided to write out a list of potential 'superpowers' who could achieve that status within the next 50/100 years or so.

i'm just wondering what your views are about each potental nation that ive mentioned, am i right in what i'm saying by the shortlist?

which countrys would abuse the power? and which would take the world forward?

later


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THE UNITED STATES
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currently the world's only 'superpower' a lot of people talk about the decline of america and how cracks are SLOWLY beggining to appear, i personally hope not!

i like to think of america as relativly YOUNG - it is a country with huge amounts of potential, and whilist i don't always agree with what they do on a global scale, i like what the country stands for and i hope one day it lives up to its potential and takes the world forward.

but IS america too young for the burden of the only current 'superpower?' - i'll let you people decide

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CHINA
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tipped to be the next superpower (and really envitable they will), but some people like the idea of an upcoming china - some are in fear!!

your views.

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INDIA
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also tipped to reach superpower status, whilst i don't know too much about india as a whole

will they be a good superpower?

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RUSSIA
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in military terms russia is still very much a 'superpower' - but financially they took a battering.

russia longgg to get its superpower status back (and slowly are) financially getting on their feet again!! -

but having this power it will most likely will lead them to follow in the steps of Germany before the second World War. National pride and the memory of the empire they once had will compel them to rebuild an even stronger military and a stronger superpower they was during the cold war.

their ties with the islamic world is scary,

WW3 - hope not.

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UNITED KINGDOM
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my country, today britain is very much a 'superpower' in global issues - tony blair is seen by many as the voice of the world.

once an empire, (which it lost after fighting both world wars from start to finish) - it broke britains back financially, but 70 years on britain has done what no other empires have done before it and stood up and began running again.

britain now is one of the finest athletes in the world again and now has the 4th richest economy in the world.

i think britain is playing a smart game, its keeping close ties with the EU and also keeps close ties with the US.

militry terms seen by many as the 2nd most powerful nation, britain as some neat projects in development (10-15 years the future looks very promising) -

britains economy is growing.

superpower status again?

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JAPAN
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the world most advanced country, 10 years infront of the rest of the world in terms of technogly and if japan invested in its militry more it would be a superpower already!!

but japan reminds me of what america was at 100 years ago 'A FRIENDLY GIANT - no allegiance with any country nor rival - a neutral.

future global superpower?

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(outside options)

EU - of course if the eu merged it would be a superpower already!! - could oneday there be a 'united states of europe?'

i don't think so, countrys would lose its identy and history, so i don't think its something that can ever happen.

[edit on 18-2-2006 by st3ve_o]

Id say if I had to rank them. 50 years from now without any major conflicts or I really dont think the list is going to change much for the next hundred years or so unless something MAJOR happens.

imo

Britain is small and cant compete land/free resource wise with the other larger nations.

Russia is going to get stronger of course they learn from there mistakes pretty well.

China needs to end there poverty problems and bring there per capita up.

India's economy is begining to take off and I'm really interested to see what they do with there power.

The US is gonna keep being the US imo. Hopefully we'll get some better leadership in here but other than that I think were doing very well.

The EU should become united. After all whats history without change?

superpower will mean nothing if the threat of global warming issue is not met.this stuff of fighting over who runs the world will mean nothing compared to waves of hell from the sea coming.my thoughts that there will only be worldwide division on lines of higher ground.those who live in low lying areas are the first to go.superpower will be not even on our minds.....

Global warming is the next superpower! We are in for a shake up!!

Human beings don't have 50 years left!... more like a decade, if that...

happy joy joy

Britain is not a superpower and will not be one in the forseable future. Britian is a nuclear power, a big trading power and thus very influential in the global political gameroom, but not a superpower.

Russia is indeed longing after the sphere of influence it once had, as seen by how she has behaved towards the Ukraine and Georgia after their 'color' revolutions and pro-west standpoints. Russia is indeed getting some of it's strength back, Russia has also recently upgraded it's nuclear arsenal with ICBMs which can penetrate any missile defense system, or so they claim.
So basicly, don't mess with Russia, they can indeed deliver a powerful nuclear punch. But the outcome of such a conflict would eventually lead to every participant being the loser.
As for Russia being a big economic power again, it's possible, but they won't be as big as China or India.

China does indeed need to get rid of her poverty and create a internal market aswell, so that they don't have to be so dependent on export to foreign countries.
Chinas economy is however overheating and they need to put some brakes on it. At this rate, it will only be a matter of time before China runs out of arable land, clean water, energy resources etc. Which might lead them to concider expansion and protection of their energy security, by military means.
However militarily they are no match for the U.S., not yet.

The U.S. is in somewhat of a pickle regarding the national debt, it's about $8.2 trillion ($8200 billion) now, which is paid by mostly foreign central banks, which are either privately owned or 'independent', which is almost the same thing. A depression is like Happy Hour for the international banker.

I as a European, think Europe should not unite. Though I think the people in higher echelons want it to happen. I don't want my country to be run by some unaccountable foreign bureaucrats that don't give two sh**s and a f**k about what happens to my country and it's people, just as long as they profit. They don't have absolute control yet, but it's pretty damn near that, especially since my country already traded in it's own currency for the euro.
The EU is sinking anyway, you should look at it's demographics. Soon there will be a 50% increase in people over the age of 60, who are pentioners, and the population growth in developed European countries is very slow. And as we've seen in France and other places throughout Europe, taking in foreign workers and forcing multiculturalism hasn't really worked that well.
Europe will probably get poorer and loose influence in the global political gameroom, I just hope my country will leave the ship before it sinks.


There's nothing we can do about global warming. The earth goes through these trends, in some points it gets colder and in some points it gets warmer, we might be heading for the point in which it gets warmer, though some Russian scientists suggest it might get colder.
It's a natural phenomenon in which we humans don't have a say.

[edit on 19/2/2006 by SwearBear]

In the next 50 years or so, I'd have to say India would be your best bet. A large, well educated populace, with access to natural resources needed for a rapidly growing economic collossus. Provided, of course, they don't get in a nuclear scrap with Pakistan.

Another to watch is Brazil, for basically the same reasons, but without the looming problems of a Pakistan-type neighbor.

Of course any discussion of world superpowers would be incomplete without the current, and for the foreseeable future, big dog; the United States. Economically, and militarily, no one comes close at this time.

In closing, the year 2056 rolls around (I am older than dirt), the list will be as follows (IMHO): 1) United States (hooray...). 2) India. 3) Brazil. 4) European Union.

How did I manage to forget China, you might ask? Didn't. My belief is that in the next 10 to 15 years, China will return to its historical pattern of being very insular. Regional powerhouse, but not on par with India. No proof of any of this at all, but never stopped me before.

I am having real issues with the English language today...
[edit on 19-2-2006 by seagull]

[edit on 19-2-2006 by seagull]

Hard so say............

In the next 50 years so many things can happen to drastically alter civilization as we've come to know it that one wonders how long we have left existing like we do now........

For instance.......in addition to nuclear prolification that could escalate into an exchange sending us all back to the stone age..........we have so many other technologies such at nanotech, genetics and biotech that if used for war or aggression of any form could lead to the extinction of the human species...........epecially since so many disasterous efforts of those technologies could arise in any individual laboratory independent from state or govenment assests........

And if we somehow avoid all of this............then the technological advances will come at such an accelerated rate that humans my begin to morph into artificial intelligence as we continue to replace increasing amounts of our body with artifical parts.........which could make the definition what is human or not a real challange during the second half of this century...........

By 2050 and beyond the question might not be who is the next superpower..

..but rather...

.....who is the dominate species on the planet?

1) USA = The USA will continue to be the main Superpower for decades to come. This is a young country with too much potential to slide into the abyss. America's distractors will have to learn to grin and bare it. Mother Liberty is not going anywhere!

2)China = China's rise is mainly due to it's loosening of the communist noose and acceptance of Capitalism. Suttle changes from within will win
out and what emerges will not be as scary as the it's former self. I see China becoming a major player in the global economy and a viable trading
partner with the USA. Investments will win out over idealism here!

3)India = A lot of the middle eastern countries should sit up and take notice
of what India has been able to accomplish. By placing importance on such things as education and embracing technology, India has managed to carve out it's niche in the world.

In the next fifty years I don't really see anyother nation equalling the US. Why? Demographics still decide the fate of nations.

USA = Still economically dynamic. And as mentioned before still relatively young.

Russia = Minerally wealthy however suffering from a decline in population in fact in fifty years russia is projected to be slightly less populated than Japan

China = Not as large a threat as it appears. It has a long way to go before it can compete with the US. Its about the same size as the US but has many times the population as the US. Its rapid industrialization has poisoned its land and rivers. Its Draconian family policies while drastically reducing the growth rate of the population has resulted in a population scew similiar to western nations. Which means China will get old before it gets wealthy.

Japan = An incredibly technologically advanced nation. However again population is the dominant factor you can't build a superpower from the old folks home. Maybe if they built some of those OSSIMO robots like battle droids then they'd be in business.

India = The most credible challenger to America's position. They're a young nation. They are becoming increasingly technologically advanced and economically prosperous.

EU = Like what was stated before the EU is an economic giant now. Equal in many aspects to the US. I'm not so sure we won't see a United Europe in one form or another but they are to aging rapidly.

Brazil = There have been many false dawns for this Latin American giant. Demographics are on Brazil's side here. But a likely contender to be a major power in the world within 50yrs.

My hope is that the U.S. will be the dominant superpower (hyperpower) for the rest of our existence. But...

NOT LIKE THIS!!! Not like the way we are doing things today. The way America is today is not the way to be a good superpower. We must change, change, and change some more. Then I will support our superpower standing.

I'm just going to give my thoughts on the whole issue:
1. Russia: I beleive Russia to be the surprise up and comer on the world stage thanks to the reforms of one man, Vladimir Putin. Their economy is rapidly solidifying and their foreign trade base is growing. Plus they are now pursuing an aggressive foreign policy in the Middle East and in Asia in general as a means of reestablishing themselves as the dominant power in these regions. Plus with the rebuilding of their amred forces, in the next ten years Russia may be the Bear that reawakens.
Resurgent Russia
Putin is the greatest thing to happen to Russia in a long time, but possibly the worst thing to happen to Europe and America in a long time.

2. Europe: in discussing Europe there really is only one nation to discuss, the United Kingdom. Except for loudmouthing and political rhetoric, France and Gemrany have long since slipped into irrelevance on the world stage, Spain has been a nobody ever since the Napoleonic Wars, and Eastern Europe is still to fragmented to offer anything up except themselves on the dinner plate of a possibly hungry Russain Bear. Although France and Germany field high tech and well trained militaries, they are far too small to affect nothing more than minor peacekeeping operations. Even a united Europe, which is unlikely as too many cultures colliding would eventually clash tearing apart the alliance in a possibly bloody war, has little to offer the world stage with a now aggressive Russian Bear, a refusal to die America and an awakening Chinese Dragon and the possible births of Japan and India as global powers to be reckoned with.

China: This is the most obvious state in the world to acheive global super power status. The question is will they take it. They possibly won't since Russia is making it clear that they wish to be the dominant player in the strategic alliance that now exists between the two. And even with the modernization of their armed forces, Russia is still better equipped to win a breif war with China then China is. However don't discount the rapid mood swings historically evident in Chinese foreign policy. After a few years of unparrelelled economic growth, and with the possiblity of Russia becoming embroiled in a new cold war with the US and Europe in the Middle East, China may decide to exert its own influence in SOuthEast Asia and try to redress historical wrongs done them by Vietnam, Korea and Japan. Also, the sheer size and industrial might of China speaks volumns about its ability to possibly wage a global war of conquest if it so desired. Although it is not clear if ever China will match the US militarily, they don't have to if the US is too stretched to reply.

India: Possibly the wild card here. India has entered a military alignment of sorts with the CHinese and the Russians, but is still reaching out to the US. India is clearly testing the waters, but don't expect any time soon a massive Indian army to come tramping into the MIddle East or the Pacific Rim, rather look towards the possiblity of India swaying Chinese and Russian opinion to allow it remove the thorn in its side called Pakistan...permanently. This war would be massive and be extremely bloody, but as one state (Pakistan) is Muslim and India Hindu, expect it to be accepted on both sides as a holy war of annihliation, but undoubtedly India would win. It's doubtful however wether they would have more of a global impact than that.

Japan: SOme may speculate on the possiblity of Japan regaining its strength and exerting its own historical influence over the Northern Asia sphere. But its doubtful...despite Japans aggressive posturing and dire warnings against Chinese aggression in Asia, Japan has no means with which to back up its warnings save the might of the United States, which can not be gauranteed to remain forever. Unless Japan decides to strike out on its own, look for Japan to become a more vocal supporter of US foreign policy as a sheild against any possible CHinese or North Korean adventures.

And finally...THe USA: The USA will still remain a superpower for decades to come, but we will not be unchallenged. Right now Russia and CHina are poised to take the vacant thrones on the world stage, with many new challenges to the US in the offering. The US is moving towards a more Middle Eastern centric thought of foreign policy, while Russia and China bopth are actively seeking to remove the US from Asia as a power. Also Russia is reexerting its influence in the Middle East, and may prove to be the undoing of US policy towards Iran. But the US still remains the dominant military power in the world, especially now that a right wing government is in control with intent of rebuilding the US m,ilitary to its former Reagen years glory. And due to the demands of the War On Terror (Which will continue after the departure of the Bush administration regardless of which politcal party takes office in 08) it is doubtful that the US military buildup would decline even with a left wing government in control. THe majority of those in power in the US have finally awakened to the multiple threats to their power and influence in the world and irregardless of political platform are working to address the wrongs of the past several presidents.

yeah as said, it think japan are the big guns of the future - but they would have to invest more in their military!!

they remind me a lot of america 100 years ago (just get along with life) friend or foe to noone.

i think japan would make a good superpower too (they've changed since WW2) - it's like they've evolved

japan is one country id love to visit - they are that far infront of other countrys i bet they now have i-pods in bubble gum machines lol

i guarantee if ANYONE figure's out how to send humans beyond the speed of light to other galaxys it will be the japanese - they've just started to get involved in space travel too, so stay tuned


[edit on 24-2-2006 by st3ve_o]

Originally posted by SpecAgentDW

2. Europe: in discussing Europe there really is only one nation to discuss, the United Kingdom. Except for loudmouthing and political rhetoric, France and Gemrany have long since slipped into irrelevance on the world stage, Spain has been a nobody ever since the Napoleonic Wars, and Eastern Europe is still to fragmented to offer anything up except themselves on the dinner plate of a possibly hungry Russain Bear. Although France and Germany field high tech and well trained militaries, they are far too small to affect nothing more than minor peacekeeping operations. Even a united Europe, which is unlikely as too many cultures colliding would eventually clash tearing apart the alliance in a possibly bloody war, has little to offer the world stage with a now aggressive Russian Bear, a refusal to die America and an awakening Chinese Dragon and the possible births of Japan and India as global powers to be reckoned with.

Good analysis!
But I want to add that the UK too is in a state of decline. Its a sunset power. Nothing there except some Nukes and military equipment donated by the US of A.

A United Europe as an entity by itself is not viable due to the vast cultural differences.

Though steaming ahead economically, Brazil's power status will in all likelyhood be restricted to the continent.

China's economy is heating up but considering its resources, political and demographic setup, competitive labour and aggressive economic policies, it will vie for the 2nd spot after US of A.

That leaves the upcoming juggernaut - India. With a sustained > 7% GDP growth rate for the past 15 years (projected at 8-9% in 2006-2007), its booming! A young India, technically having the finest brains in the world, the 4th largest armed forces, a new found confidence and already a world superpower in information technology can safely be positioned at the number 3 spot.

What of Russia? Your guess is as good as mine!

Russia has the best prospects for reaching superpower status IMHO. They already retain a Super Power military which could lay ruin to most of the world. A well educated population some of the best in the world with people very good in fields like Math and Science. One we are already seeing foreign companies take advantage of since Russian wages are pretty cheap.

Vast natural resources and a legitimate claim to a whole lot more. Its been estimated 1/4 or earths remaining natural resources are tied on in the Artic regions of earth. Russia is in the process of claiming over half of the resources of the Artic. The remaining percent is going to be divide between Canada, the US and Norway.

Someone mentioned Russia future population as a problem and they very well might have a problem much like Japan is facing in that respect. But its not one that cant be overcome. Once there are more russian jobs immigrants can fill that void.

Chinas biggest asset is population will become its achilles heel without expansion in time IMO.

Well China is commonly thought to be the next superpower, however I think it may be a darkhorse. A country may experience a sudden surge and take everyone by surprise. No, I don't really know what that could be but anything could happen in the future.

Hell, if AIDS were cured in the near future, Africa might become a force to reckon with in 50-80 years. They've got the resources and if you've known any African exchange students you know they have the smarts. If they get their stuff together we might be in for a surprise.

[edit on 2/25/2006 by Flinx]

Originally posted by mikesingh

Good analysis!
But I want to add that the UK too is in a state of decline. Its a sunset power. Nothing there except some Nukes and military equipment donated by the US of A.

wrong, (don't know where you get your facts from)!!

america doesn't provide the UK with military equipment, you may sell some of your aircraft/equipment to other countrys, but the UK doesn't buy none - so WRONG!!

nuclear, WRONG!! - the UK produces its own nuclear warheads.

but if you want to go on about whos provided who with technology i think you'll find the UK as provided america MORE thoughout the years.

the atom, radar, VSTOL etc.

but america haven't provided us with anything!! infact the only project i can think of from the top of my head is the F-35 (which is a joint contract).

but i GUARANTEE if you can think other contracts between both countrys (if any), it will be 'JOINT' contracts/'JOINT' intelligence.

so don't make out we are hiding under americas handouts


[edit on 25-2-2006 by st3ve_o]

Originally posted by SpecAgentDW

This war would be massive and be extremely bloody, but as one state (Pakistan) is Muslim and India Hindu, expect it to be accepted on both sides as a holy war of annihliation, but undoubtedly India would win. It's doubtful however wether they would have more of a global impact than that.

I'd just like to point out that India has the 2nd largest Muslim population in the World after Indonesia.Hence it has more Muslims than Pakistan.
And I'd like to say that most of them are extremely moderate/tolerant to other religions.
Except for crazy retards here and there, India is mostly secular.

Originally posted by st3ve_o

so don't make out we are hiding under americas handouts

[edit on 25-2-2006 by st3ve_o]

OK dude, why not face the facts?
You guys don't have a foreign policy of your own. Always tugging at the coat tails of the Americans.
(Didn't some Brit himself say that Britain is 'America's pet poodle'?)
No offence meant. I'm just re-calling what one of your own guys said. I didn't invent this!!

One of the only independent foreign policy issues was concerning the EU. And this dosen't seem to be gaining any momentum. Its one step forward, two steps back.
So without mother-hen America, Britain is nix!
If so, can Britain be ever called a super power in its own right?

Undoubtedly, Britain was a super power half a century ago. Amazing how a little country like that could rule half the world. (I doff my hat to that!).
But the party is over!


[edit on 5-3-2006 by mikesingh]

My short thoughts on the proposed list:

I am not sure if there can only ever be more than one or two super-powers. If there are several, then they're just Great Powers, like the 'great powers' of the WWI era. A super-power would be something that can more or less destroy and control the whole planet. If there are several 'super-powers', then you can't really say that any one of them can control the whole planet.


UNITED STATES - World Destroying Nuke Aresenal, one of if not the world's largest economy, able to maintain conventional military super-domination across the globe, clearly, the US is going to be a super-power for a long time.

CHINA - no military force projection capabilities. Isolationists can't be super-powers.

INDIA - same problem as china, along with a very weak and non-threatening conventional military. No planet destroying nuke arsenal. Could be a great global economic power. Can't be a super-power until it can defeat pakistan and bring pakistan and bangladesh back into its dominion.

RUSSIA - weak economy, weak military, in-ability to project power across the globe, incapable of controlling its former satellite republics, but does possess a globe shattering nuke force.

UNITED KINGDOM - no big nuke ability, small (though powerful) army. Strong economy. Might've been able to swing into super-power status if places liek australia and canada were still part of the old empire, but not in competition with them.

JAPAN - has a constitution that prevents an offensive army. East Asia will, sensibly enough, ally to destroy them if they build up a defensive army

EU - terest in global politics, difficulty in maintaining NATO, let alone an European Only military


None of this should be a surprise though, a super-power is a pretty rare thing, I wouldn't expect the status of global super-powers to change much over time. Recall that a very specific series of events happened to make the US a super-power, the econic comeback after the great depression, being untouched by wwi and wwii, the collapse of european global colonial empires, and the arms race with the Soviet Union. For the Soviets, it was massive investment in conventional military forces to intimidate europe, and the nuke arms race with the US.

Its not just a matter of being a big country and having a decent economy.

Originally posted by Nygdan

INDIA -

same problem as china, along with a very weak and non-threatening conventional military. No planet destroying nuke arsenal. Could be a great global economic power. Can't be a super-power until it can defeat pakistan and bring pakistan and bangladesh back into its dominion.

Nygdan,

Tch, Tch. Dude, you got no idea what the Indian Military is all about. It sure packs a solid punch. It has the 4th largest professional defence forces in the world.
And not weak by any standard.

Do you know that more than 23 countries including the US, send their armed forces personnel for training to India?

Do you know that India has the some of the most advanced weapon systems in the world?

Do you know that the Indian Air Force put the US Air Force top guns in a tizzy and tied them in knots during the Air Exercise, Cope India 2005? This, needless to say sent the Pentagon scrambling to re-assess their air doctrines?

Do you know that the US Marines come to India for training in counter terrorist operations and jungle warfare?

And here is an extract from the Times on the recent Special Forces competition held in the Kalahari Desert:

"Indian special forces team beat US, SA, UK and France in the macho-men competition!
“Mention ‘Special Forces’ and the intrepid Israelis, the gung-ho Americans or the secretive British come to mind. But, it appears that it is the Indians who are the toughest of them all. This is what a gruelling contest determined last week.”
“The Israelis were not there, but a team of India’s Special Forces (SF), outshone their counterparts from the US, South Africa, U.K., France, hosts Botswana and a clutch of African nations in the Kalahari desert.”

So Nygdan, the Indian Armed Forces aren't a bunch of tyros. They're big, their solid and they're thoroughly professional.

So will you now re-assess and reconsider the comments you have made about India's Defence Forces?

And you also mentioned that India doesn't have a planet destroying nuclear arsenal. Is this a qualification to become a super power?? Man, you're outta sinc!

P.S. One of the Americans who had come to India for training and saw the ice cliffs of Kargil, was flabbergasted as to how in the world the Indian Army could capture enemy posts, some over 22,000 feet high along sheer cliffs in Kargil during the recent conflict with Pakistan. And I can assure you the Pakistan Army are no pushovers.








[edit on 7-3-2006 by mikesingh]