War In Nagorno Karabakh Can Start At Any Moment

Ban Ki-moon again calls for withdrawal of snipers, and urges both sides to "refrain from making any provocative actions".


RFE/RL: UN's Ban Urges Sniper Withdrawal From Karabakh Cease-Fire Line

November 30, 2010


UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has again called for the withdrawal of snipers deployed along the line of contact separating Armenian and Azerbaijani forces near the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

In an interview with RFE/RL, Ban also urged both sides to "refrain from making any provocative actions" in the area.

Is war in Nagorno Karabakh inevitable?


ICR head offers Baku Blitzkrieg in Nagorno-Karabakh

December 06, 2010


A war is inevitable in Nagorno-Karabakh, Heydar Jamal, Chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia (ICR), stated in an interview with Day.az, commenting on the OSCE Summit in Astana.

“The Summit shows the public at large, which is unaware and waiting for miracles. A war is inevitable in the South Caucasus. And no mediators are proposing any other game,” Jamal said.

On Thursday, the Armenian parliament will discuss whether they'll recognize Nagorno-Karabakh's independence.


Armenian parliament to discuss Karabakh independence

December 6, 2010


Armenia’s parliament will discuss Thursday the possibility of recognizing breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence, yet many admit that international considerations effectively preclude Yerevan from making any such acknowledgement.

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"Armenia needs Russia’s consent to be able to recognize Karabakh’s independence. It is not possible otherwise. Of course we should not forget the role of the European Union and United States in the process,” Özkan said.

Baku will launch hostilities as soon as it is ready

December 07, 2010


“If anyone thinks recognition or non-recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh by the Armenian Parliament, or any decisions or international processes, may keep Azerbaijan from hostilities, such people are seriously erroneous. Azerbaijan will launch hostilities as soon as it is ready for that,” Rustamyan said.

Lack of media attention in the West...


Analyst Ivan Katchanovski: Only one short segment...

24 Dec 2010


I am sceptical about prospects of a viable settlement which would satisfy Azerbaijani and Armenian sides of the conflict and such major powers as the US and Russia, in the near future.

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There is a saying that truth is the first casualty of the war. Media in many countries involved in a conflict often sides with their governments and fails to provide a balanced picture. Because media influences public opinion, such biased information can deepen conflicts and complicate their resolution.

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The lack of media attention helps to keep the Nagorno-Karabakh issue from the foreign policy agenda of Western powers, and it helps make countries, such as Azerbaijan, a terra incognita for the people in the West.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s armed forces are preparing for war, and they have spent the past year strengthening their positions.


Karabakh Armenian Army ‘Preparing For War’

28.12.2010


Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian armed forces have spent the past year strengthening their frontline positions and preparing for a possible new war with Azerbaijan, their chief commander said on Tuesday.

“I’m not waiting for [Azerbaijani] provocations, I’m waiting for war,” Lieutenant General Movses Hakobian told a news conference in Stepanakert. “Nagorno-Karabakh’s Defense Ministry and Defense Army were set up to wage war, and we are getting ready for that every day, every hour.”

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Azerbaijan’s leaders regularly threaten to forcibly win back Karabakh and Armenian-controlled territories surrounding it. They have also vowed to continue an ongoing military build-up fuelled by Baku’s massive oil and gas.

Armenia has its own S-300 systems. Long rumoured, but now officially admitted.


Air Defense: Armenia Has Its Own

January 5, 2011: Armenia admits that it has its own S300 anti-aircraft missile systems. This has been rumored for over a year, but this was the first official admission.

Meanwhile, last year Armenia signed a pact with Russia that, in effect, makes it a protectorate of Russia. The deal extends the lease on a Russian military base in Armenia from 2020 to 2044. The 3,000 man Russian force in Armenia may be increased and Russia, in effect, guarantees Armenia's security. Armenia needs all the help it can get, as it is a landlocked Christian nation surrounded by three hostile Moslem states (Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran). To the north, there is Georgia which, while Christian, has its own problems with Russia.

Some twelve percent of the 150,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh are armed and organized to defend the mountainous area, and are backed up by even more troops in Armenia.

Azerbaijan keeps firing at Karabakh positions.


Azerbaijan fires at Karabakh positions

January 08, 2011


On January 1-8, 80 ceasefire violations by Azerbaijani side were registered in the contact line between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Karabakh

According to Anatoly Tsiganok, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may cause WW III.


Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may cause WW III, Russian expert says

January 07, 2011


According to him, this seemingly local conflict, may, if intensified, cause a third world war. Once NATO sides with Azerbaijan, and Russia with Armenia, a third world war is sure to begin

reply to post by Hellmutt


Whilst I recognise the potential for an escalated confliict arising from this I really can't see the UK and other western European populations allowing their countries to be dragged into a major confrontation with Russia over this.
NATO will not get involved unless it poses a live and major threat to it's interests, even then I doubt it would develop to all out war unless the security or sovereignty of one of the nation states themself was directly threatened.
People are too aware of the implications of all out war between Russia and NATO.

reply to post by Freeborn


Not only that, but aside from the fact that, at least here in America, the vast majority of people don't even know where Armenia is, or that it even exist..

Also I think American's would be more inclined to side with Armenia over Azerbaijan when they take the time to find Armenia on the map and google it's history. We'd end up siding with Russia it seems.

Armenia is prepared to fight Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh


AFP: Armenia prepared to fight Azerbaijan over Karabakh

1 day ago


Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian said on Thursday that his country was prepared to fight its ex-Soviet neighbour Azerbaijan again if necessary over the disputed region of Nagorny Karabakh.

"I have repeatedly stated that we are against a war, but that doesn't mean we are afraid to fight," Sarkisian told Russia's Moscow Echo radio station.

"If by some miracle Karabakh was under Azerbaijani control even for an hour, there would be no Armenian left there," he told the station.

"We must protect our population using any means necessary," he said.

A report on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be published by The International Crisis Group next week. The report will focus on the possibility of a new war.


"...This Report Will Focus On The New Karabakh War Possibility"

04 February 2011


The International Crisis Group will publish the report on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the middle of next week, International Crisis Group Europe Program Director Sabine Freizer said.

"It is a report that will focus on the possibility of a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh," Freizer told.

The report is based on Crisis Group experts' research that has been carried out in Azerbaijan and Armenia. The group has been working on this report for four months.

International Crisis Group: "Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War"


Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War

8 Feb 2011


Escalating front-line clashes, a spiralling arms race, vitriolic rhetoric and a virtual breakdown in peace talks increase the chance Armenia and Azerbaijan will go back to war over Nagorno-Karabakh, with devastating regional consequences.

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Increased military capabilities on both sides would make a new armed conflict in the South Caucasus far more deadly than the 1992-1994 one that ended with a shaky truce. Neither side would be likely to win easily or quickly. Even if neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan is planning an immediate all-out offensive, skirmishes could easily spiral out of control.

reply to post by Rockpuck

Not only that, but aside from the fact that, at least here in America, the vast majority of people don't even know where Armenia is, or that it even exist..

True dat, but most Americans will have the opinion that the MSM give to them.

So if CNN/Fox say that Azerbaijan is bad, they'll side with Armenia, if they say Armenia is bad, they'll side with Azerbaijan. Americans are spineless and ignorant for the most part, the MSM and the government use that.

"If by some miracle Karabakh was under Azerbaijani control even for an hour, there would be no Armenian left there," he told the station.

I think he's pushing it...


And maloy, the russian ATS member who posted real good info during the Georgia-Russia war, said that the next conflict would involving Russia would certainly be this one...he said that, back in August 2008...


Not to mention, the report is saying that Russia, the EU and the US must watch the situation and follow their plan to help peace... thing is, they are distracted by Egypt, the economy, China, Iran, Hezbollah, ect... they have ``no time`` for ``such a trivial matter``... IMO that's what they believe anyway.

From the report:


Armenia and Azerbaijan:
Preventing War

Preventing this is urgent.

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Regional alliances could pull in Russia, Turkey and Iran.

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Another refugee crisis would be likely.

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Azerbaijan’s armed forces are estimated at nearly 95,000, Armenia’s and Nagorno-Karabakh’s at around 70,000. The two sides’ arsenals are increasingly deadly, sophisticated and capable of sustaining a protracted war. Both can hit large population centres, critical infrastructure and communications.

Latest news today is that the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers are meeting today to do a deal between Armenia/Azerbaijan...

Hopefully they are successful... and things calm down.

Azerbaijan, Armenia May Go To War Over Territory

BAKU, Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan is seriously preparing for war with Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorny Karabakh, the country's defense minister told international peace mediators Feb. 11.

"Azerbaijan is seriously preparing to liberate its territories," Defense Minister Safar Abiyev said in comments published by the ministry's news service.

Yeah that'll help... not.

And if war breaks out... who then enters it depends on what Azerbaijan/Armenia do. If Azerbaijan only tries to take back the territory they lost, no one else will get involved... but if they try to take over some Armenian land...

And Armenia, if they don't try to get more territory from Azerbaijan...

If they stray from that path... it's kinda hard to know who will get in the conflict... and on which side. Turkey/Iran/Russia...US?

Turkey for sure would go against Armenia... Iran... I think would go with Azerbaijan... Russia... they have a big military presence in Armenia... anyway it would be a big freaking mess and it would likely destroy a big political relation in the area... like Turkey-Iran...

reply to post by Vitchilo



BTC Pipeline:

Gigantic Oil Pipeline From Caspian Sea Opened Today (posted on 26 May 2005)


Maybe
Azerbaijan / (Turkey?) / (US?) / (Israel?) / (NATO?) / (Georgia?) Vs. Armenia / (Russia?) / (Iran?) / (Syria?)

reply to post by Vitchilo



Azerbaijan preparing to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh. Here's a different source.


Azerbaijan making preparation to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh, say DM

Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev on Friday told visiting OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs that his country was making serious preparations for the liberation of the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region.

reply to post by Hellmutt


I'm sure the Armenians won't view it as 'liberation'.

Maybe Azerbaijan thinks that with the eye's of the world firmly fixed elsewhere at the moment this is the perfect time to 'liberate' the disputed area.

Should Armenia and Azerbeijan get down to it , then , Russia & Turkey & Iran would do everything to stop the war .



Only way out is the set up a united caucasian federation which would have Russia - Iran - Turkey as guarantors .