War In Nagorno Karabakh Can Start At Any Moment

State of Emergency in Armenia

Armenia has just declared state of emergency. There are riots in the capital, fires and "lots of gunfire".


BBC: Armenia declares emergency rule

Armenian and Azerbaijani troops exchange fire!


RussiaToday: Armenian and Azerbaijani troops exchange fire

It's not clear how many have died during these recent clashes. Here are some more sources:


BBC: Karabakh casualty toll disputed

Armenia and Azerbaijan still technically remain at war with each other.

Reuters AlertNet - FACTBOX-Trouble in Nagorno-Karabakh

Khaleej Times Online - Azerbaijan blames Armenia for armed clash

Reuters: Azerbaijan and Armenia spar over Karabakh shootout

RussiaToday: Violence escalates in Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan to re-examine its relations with US, France and Russia

Azerbaijan is angry at France, Russia and the US, and warned that they'll re-examine its relations to these countries. The reason is that they voted against a UN resolution to demand the "immediate, complete and unconditional" withdrawal of all Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh.


RFE/RL: Azerbaijan Criticizes France, Russia, U.S Over Karabakh Resolution

Thank you, Hellmutt, for keeping this thread updated. No one is better than you at keeping us updated on this region that I'd otherwise be ignorant about.

War In Nagorno Karabakh Soon?

Because of the recent developments in Georgia, the risk of war over Nagorno Karabakh has increased. If Azerbaijan were to try to take Nagorno Karabakh back by force (like Georgia just did in South Ossetia), Russia would support Armenia.


Experts: “In case official Baku attempts to ensure its territorial integrity, Russia will take analogous steps against Azerbaijan”


Armenia and Azerbaijan is still formally at war with each other. The BTC pipeline starts in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The Caucasus is a powder keg, and the fuse is getting dangerously short.

What will America`s response be if Russia intervenes in this conflict?

Hopefully cool heads prevail.

Thanks for keeping us updated Hellmutt, on both this issue and the Akhbazia issue.


[edit on 13-8-2008 by ben420]

Credit goes to rixhell for posting this link in the 'Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates' thread:

www.anspress.com...

Armenian Forces violated cease-fire in several directions.
Armenian Forces violated cease-fire on August 12 and 13. Units of the Armenian Army near Paravakar village of Ijevan region, Armenia, shelled at positions of the Azerbaijani Army on unnamed heights of Gazakh region, Azerbaijan. Armenian Forces also opened machine and submachine gun fire from positions in occupied Garvand village of Fuzuli, Goyarkh village of Terter regions of Azerbaijan at opposite positions of the Azerbaijani Army. No casualties are reported.

Here are a couple of other things rixhell dug up (he knows I'm posting here):

Azeri hostage released: www.anspress.com...

Armenians accused of widespread arson attacks: www.anspress.com...

Things seem to be smouldering in more senses than one.

Not sure what to make of this:

Google Censors Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan maps

Another piece to the puzzle? A sign the conflict in Georgia & the brewing conflict with Iran may be somehow connected?

Nagorno Karabakh to be recognized on August 25?

Seems like Russia and Armenia is to recognize Nagorno Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia on August 25! What about Transnistria, will they go for independence too? Will this trigger the war in Azerbaijan and more war in Georgia?



Nagorno Karabakh can be recognized by Armenia simultaneously with Russia recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia

reply to post by Hellmutt


Just when we thought it was safe to breathe a sigh of relief the reality kicks in. Other brewing conflicts are poised to take centre stage.

I echo ben's sentiments entirely. This thread is one of the most informative I've ever come across on ATS.

Actually I don't see Russia recognizing Nagorno-Krabakh. Russia does not want to ruin relations with Azerbaijan, and unlike S.Ossetia and Abkhazia Russia has always been somewhat aside during the Nagorno-Krabakh conflict. It has been indirectly helping both the Armenians and the Azeris. And now, if war breaks out there, it will be nearly impossible for Russia to send any type of military aid to the region. Georgia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan will not allow Russia in their airspace. Iran could, but it would be a logistical nightmare.

Plus Azerbaijan government is not as politically hostile to Russia as Saakashvilli was. It looks like Aliyev is still partially neutral between Russia and U.S., and is keeping open ties with Russia.

As for Armenia - it is in no position to declare Nagorno-Karabakh independent, thus starting a war there. This time Georgia will block any Russian aid to Armenia, and Armenia cannot afford to be blockaded by Turkey for economic reasons (like it had during the first war).



I think that if anyone wants to spark a war in Nagorno-Karabakh now it is the local separatists. The question is - will their provokation work (like S. Ossetian and Georgian provokation worked in S. Ossetia), and draw in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and in turn Russia and U.S.?

For now everyone will probably decide to lie low for a while. But a few years into the future - it could get very messy. Especially with the Caspian pipeline playing such a huge geopolitical role.

[edit on 23-8-2008 by maloy]

Here's from an Azeri source. If Armenia recognizes Nagorno Karabakh, Azerbaijan will attack.


Organization for Karabakh Liberation: "If Armenia tries to recognize "independence" of Nagorno Karabakh, Azerbaijan will have to initiate military actions against Armenians"

There's a lot of interesting stuff about the Nagorno Karabakh conflict in this article.


Michael J. Totten: The Forgotten War

October 8, 2008

Though it is entirely dependent on Armenia for support, Nagorno Karabakh calls itself an independent republic. No country on earth recognizes its existence.

Even if you visit Armenia, you still have to get an additional visa in the capital Yerevan (the only place in the world you can get one) to visit Karabakh. If you go there, Azerbaijan will put you on a blacklist.

Armenia and Azerbaijan – including the Karabakh region – were ethnically mixed before the war started. Now, leaving aside individuals in mixed marriages, neither are. Ethnic cleansing in both countries was thorough.

Georgia Transit Ban

A Georgian transit ban gives Russia problems supplying its troops in Armenia. Even Russian civilian aircraft is banned from entering Georgian airspace. Armenia is "gasping for breath"...


EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Georgian Transit Ban Hinders Russian Military Presence in Armenia

reply to post by Hellmutt


What Georgia doesn't realize, is how much this ban will hurt their relations with Armenia in the future. Georgia isn't hurting Russia much by these actions, but it is hurting Armenia. Georgia and Armenia have been friends and allies throughout history, and now this?


As for Russia supplying Armenia, can't it be done by air if its so urgent. I understand the rail transport has been interrupted and Georgian airspace closed off. But Russia can easily fly through Azerbaijan's or Iran's airspace to get to Armenia.

I suppose this is primarily about trade, not military necessities. Armenia does depend on that rail line. I suppose it would have to start forming closer economic ties with Iran now.

reply to post by maloy


They are already flying via Azerbaijan and Iran, but... as the article says: "Russia secures over-flight permissions from these countries with "great difficulty.""

reply to post by Hellmutt


I understand the difficulty with Azerbaijan, but I don't see why Iran would mind. Iran always had good ties with Armenia, and I don't see why it would be opposed to Russian air transport.

By the way any news on the rail link with between Russia and Armenia? There are conflicting reports that Georgia closed it off or its still running on limited bases. But of course Russia probably can't use that for military supplies.

Also the Russia army contingent in Armenia isn't that numerous. I don't see the Russian troops having any urgency (food supplies) that Armenia can't fullfill.


Of course if there is any "good news" here - is that this means that a war in Nargo Karabakh is probably less likely. Armenia absolutely cannot afford this conflict right now, and it would be a suicide for it to start one. As for Azerbaijan - it would also not be a wise move to stir things up. Azerbaijan currently appears to be reevaluating its partnership with the US, and appears to want to improve relations with Russia. Hopefully there will be a thaw in the region.

[edit on 11-10-2008 by maloy]

Originally posted by maloy

As for Azerbaijan - it would also not be a wise move to stir things up.

I hope you're right about Azerbaijan. I also don't expect Armenia to start a full-scale war with Azerbaijan at the moment, unless they become so desperate so they have "nothing to lose". Or if someone else does something in order to trigger a full-scale war between them. They are already "at war", so it might not take much to ignite a full-scale war between them...

There will be Presidental elections in Azerbaijan on October 15...