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Originally posted by American Mad Man
I'd rather get another 100 Raptors then some interm BS bomber.
Originally posted by BigTrain
Theres a common misconception, you know its actually ignorance, that people seem to think that the Raptor is not needed because theres no Cold War. They seem to think theres no longer a threat, as if every country on earth loves everybody else and is all peaceful. This same mentality led us to the second world war, oh dont worry about germany, we dont need to upgrade our planes and military, as germany is secretly building the most advanced systems and military war machines ever devised.
Gut Check People: If Hitler wasnt such an impatient moron, if he would have waited 3-4 yrs before invading poland or anybody else, he would have had nuclear weapons and its a 100% certainty that every single person lucky to be alive would be under a german kingdom. If you dont believe this, you know nothing about history.
Originally posted by orca71
Your second paragraph explains why the Raptor is a waste of money. If Hitler had waited 3-4 years and developed Nuclear weapons in that time, instead of relying on conventional warfare as he did, he would have relied on Nuclear weapons just as we did against Japan.
Similarly, all our current genuine threat-nations are all nuclear powers and, as you suggested, will use nuclear weapons, not conventional weapons.
Before we dropped the bombs on japan and ended the war, the Japanese had all kinds of advanced jet fighters and bombers in development.
Now you understand why the F-22 will have nothing to do with our success if we ever engage in direct conflict with Nuclear powers like Russia or China. No one will risk losing due to conventional warfare when they have the nuclear option.
In fact, because we only have a fixed about of money to spend on such things, the money spent on the F-22 can be a serious liability in case of such a war. We are much better off spending that money on a functioning and multiple redundant missile shield defense system and we should do it fast.
Originally posted by The Vagabond
Thanks for the pics Intelgurl.
As for the idea that we'll never go to war with Russia or China- it is highly likely that you are correct, however it is not a certainty that we can afford to rely on.
Deterence is about escalation. Suppose that you and another person each had a gun on your hip, and you each reached for the last coke in the fridge at the same time, and he gets to it first.
Now are you going to pull your gun on him? Of course not. But if you did, and if you pulled your gun on him every time something little like that came up, sooner or later he'd just shoot you when he saw you coming.
Now on the other hand, what if when he got to it, you slapped his hand away and grabbed it. Is he going to pull his gun? Probably not for the same reason you wouldn't- but he may shove you down and try to take it.
Now when this escalates into a real fight, one of your probably will pull his gun, and when you do, it's going to be credible.
It's the same with nukes. Deterence begins with, "no, I'm serious, you aren't going to do X with your conventional weapons, because if you do I'll respond with Y." Your opponent says, "Then I'd have to do Z." And you say, "If you do Z we're going to war."
Take the Cuban missile crisis as a perfect example. It wasn't just "Pull your nukes out of Cuba or we'll level Moscow".
It was "If you don't take them out we're gonna hit them." "Well if you hit them we're going to Berlin." "If you go to Berlin, you're at war with NATO." "If we get the bad end of a war with NATO, we'll use tactical nukes." "If you use tactical nukes, we'll use strategic nukes."
Let's bring it back to the real world- what happens if America can't go to the wall with Russia and China in a conventional war?
2006: Republicans in congress cut military spending to push through an election year tax rebate. The Army revises its reorganization program and drops 1 active brigade and 2 reserve brigades. The Navy scraps the DD(X) and LCS projects in favor of a new class of Frigate. The airforce decides not to take an option on additional F/A-22 aircraft, but asks for an upgrade program to the F-16, and new production of the F-16 at a later date, to be determined.
2007: The United Russia party in the Duma makes a series of amendments to the constitution of the Russian Federation- Putin is allowed to run for a third successive term and proportional representation is eliminated. That parties already immense power is strengthened to near absolutism.
2008: Putin and his supporters win election overwhelmingly- Russia begins a drift back to the Soviet era. The democrats, to nobody's surprise win the US elections. The Democrats concentrate on domestic issues while pushing for multilateralism in foreign policy.
The ABM treaty is restored and America ceases development of a missile shield.
America pulls out of Iraq. Russia cracks down on the Chechens. Russian troops begin to carry out operations in South Ossetia, Georgia on a regular basis.
2009: The Russian-Indian PAK FA program begins production of a derivative of the MiG 1.44. In most respects it as seen as a worthy adversary for the Raptor. China places an order and begins work on a domestic version.
2010: Russia invades Georgia on charges that they are helping the Chechens. South Ossetia and Abkhazia petition for annexation and are accepted. The US cries foul at the invasion of a NATO Patnership For Peace signatory.
Russia cuts the Caspian Basin Oil Pipeline.
Azerbaijan requests NATO troops immediately.
Turkey and Israel demand that the pipeline be restored and plead with the US to back them in a threat of attack if it is not.
Russian MiG 1.44's stray into Turkish airspace and shoot down three Turkish fighters. The US interperets this as a warning- they are right. 20 F/A-22s are sent to Incirlik, Turkey.
China sends 50 of their domestic version of the MiG 1.44 to Iran along with several SS-22s. Iran cuts oil exports dramatically and threatens to blockade the strait of Tiran.
America has a problem: we can't nuke anybody over an oil pipeline in Georgia, the UN Security Council can't help us because the enemy is Russia and China, we've only got 80 aircraft really equipped to deal with the threats that we face in the Gulf and the Caucuses if we decide to act, and since we can't gain air superiority we can't just make surgical strikes to slap the Russians on the wrist. Either we're going in or we're backing down. If we back down, we don't know what it might mean for our relations with Turkey, or for the future of Turkey for that matter.
America deploys a small force to protect Azerbaijan but let's the invasion of Georgia stand. The Russians build a base just North of Georgia's border with Armenia. Conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia begins to heat up thanks to Russian covert provokation. Strategic think-tanks warn the president that his decision may lead to the complete isolation of Azerbaijan, which would force them to give in to the Russians and result in shared Russo-Iranian control of the entire Caspian.
America decides to retaliate cold-war style to ensure that Russia won't have Armenia cripple Azerbaijan. The Russians have to know that everytime they push we're going to push back somewhere else. Iran is out of the question since they've got the bomb at this point, so America decides to invade Uzbekistan, which in 2005 kicked America out of an airbase there, and install a puppet that will allow us to build an airbase on the Uzbek-Kazahk border, as a way of pressuring the Russians.
Russia moves its MiGs 1.44's into Kazakhstan and begins patrolling over Uzbekistan to ensure that we will not attack. America again ponders the possibility of a clash with Russia- the administration is assured that if we don't retaliate Russia will keep pushing.
America begins its air campaign against the Uzbeks, ignoring the Russian aircraft in hope that they're only bluffing. They aren't. Russia's new 5th generation fighter takes a heavy toll on the F-16s. Our F-22s respond and engage them with mixed results. The war is a stalemate before it's really even begun. America learns a valuable lesson: Letting the other nations catch up with us was a mistake. Letting them get ahead would be even worse. America immediately orders additional F-22s and begins developing the technology for a 6th generation fighter.
See what I'm getting at? If somebody else can equal or better us in quality and quantity, or god forbid actually get ahead of us, deterrence isn't perfect. We'll lose a step or two in foreign policy.
The USAF needs more Raptors more then any of our branches needs anything else. Air superiority is the basis for all modern conventional warfare, and 500 Raptors would insure that.
Originally posted by orca71
500 raptors is a huge waste of money. We need to improve and accelerate our missile shield defense and rely on vast numbers of cheap, disposable, but smart UCAVs with high-performance/capability for air-superiority against non-nuclear enemies. If it would significantly increase yield, Id even forego some stealth features or complement stealth UCAVs with a backup wave of cheaper non-stealth UCAVs once the enemy is engaged. The way to victory is with the simultaneous deployment of over-whelming numbers of UCAVs.
Originally posted by American Mad Man
Originally posted by orca71
500 raptors is a huge waste of money. We need to improve and accelerate our missile shield defense and rely on vast numbers of cheap, disposable, but smart UCAVs with high-performance/capability for air-superiority against non-nuclear enemies. If it would significantly increase yield, Id even forego some stealth features or complement stealth UCAVs with a backup wave of cheaper non-stealth UCAVs once the enemy is engaged. The way to victory is with the simultaneous deployment of over-whelming numbers of UCAVs.
500 Raptors is anything BUT a huge waste of money.
The price per airframe would be significantly reduced, and it would also make the AF need fewer F-35's while also improving their power.
Frankly UCAV technology is not at the point where the US should relly on them for airsuperiority. Your thoughts are more in line with what we will want/have in the 2050 time frame... Right now we are still working on the technology.
Originally posted by American Mad Man
Originally posted by Darkpr0
That kind of attitude will turn everyone against you.
Why would the truth get everyone to turn against us?
The FACT is the Raptors will dominate any known aircraft. It isn't an attitude - it's the truth.
Originally posted by orca71
The fact is we only have so much we can spend/borrow and the F-22 is so costly it seriously affects the numbers we can afford without becoming fully owned by Chinese banks from who we borrow to finance such programs, a course of action that creates an even greater and more insidious national threat.
BTW, one of the assumptions in the scenario you presented that I dont agree with is that the 5th generation russian fighter will take a heavy toll on our aircraft.
Orca71
I'd hate to send up 80 F-22s against 80 stealth UCAVs where every UCAV has multiple missiles and can jointly track and fire on multiple targets simultaneously by sharing precise target information.
orca
500 Raptors will be insufficient to maintain air-superiority in a highly realistic scenario where we have more than one concurrent conventional conflict. We need thousands of aircraft, not 500 to replace our existing capability.
Originally posted by orca71
I agree that the F-22 is a much better investment than the F-35, which is about as impotent an aircraft as we have ever invested in (relative to current aircraft in our inventory) but even at an average cost of $100M each (extremely conservative estimate), 500 Raptors will be insufficient to maintain air-superiority in a highly realistic scenario where we have more than one concurrent conventional conflict. We need thousands of aircraft, not 500 to replace our existing capability.
Btw, you underestimate the UCAV technology we have today and is not reflected in the public displays by Boeing and other companies. I can tell you that the technology is in fact far beyond what anyone imagines and is already sufficient to handle all the basic functions of fighter aircraft except for a handful such as aerial refueling which is dependant on coordinated development.
Originally posted by Odium
How is it the truth?
They have not gone up against every Air-Craft in the World, so at the moment it is just an opinion.
If you can display it as a truth, I'd do so now but since it hasn't gone up against every military in the World [in fact, any] or against any hostile radar system/anti-aircraft system or against other aircraft you can't.
Originally posted by Murcielago
I would put all my money on the F/A-22's...hands down.
ho, and you just described what the Raptor can do.
I agree with AMM. Your head is a little to high in the clouds. In a few years UCAV's will emerge, but they will be bombing roles only, not A2A.
What your thinking of I doubt will happen until around 2030.
The days of thousands of aircraft all in formation at once is dead and gone.
What sort of highly realistic scenerio are you refering to???
500 would be enough to maintain our Air Superiority.....Even on a multi-front war.
I think you have forgotton about ALL of the militaries other assets. It wouldn't be just the Raptor at the beginning of a war, there would be B-2's and F-117's as well as cruise missiles.
Originally posted by American Mad Man
Originally posted by Odium
How is it the truth?
They have not gone up against every Air-Craft in the World, so at the moment it is just an opinion.
If you can display it as a truth, I'd do so now but since it hasn't gone up against every military in the World [in fact, any] or against any hostile radar system/anti-aircraft system or against other aircraft you can't.
The Raptor has been in exercises in 1v5 situations against F-15's, which are currently UNDEFEATED in air to air combat with over 100 kills.
The F-15's were all flown by Raptor pilots (thus, they know all of their weaknesses) and engagements lasted 2 minutes, where the Raptor would simply 'go down the line' and kill every enemy.
On top of that, the US owns many Russian made aircraft, and has certainly taken their abilities into account.
Frankly, EVERY SINGLE AIRCRAFT COMPANY IN THE WORLD AGREES THAT THE RAPTOR IS BEST.
Originally posted by orca71
No it wont be. 500 aircraft isnt nearly enough to support all our international bases, support ongoing military operations, and provide reserve for potential future military operations that might be required, as well as defend the homeland. 500 might be sufficient to defend our territory from external threats but thats about it.
Originally posted by orca71
It really is amazing but every time the cost of the F-22 increases, the number of enemy aircraft one F-22 can take down magically increases as well! These are age-old advertising tricks by our military and groups they hire or support.
BTW, we also heard that the patriot missile is 95% effective and that the missile shield works. The most recent of these hilarious claims is the blatantly contrived series of mock-fights with the indian military which was organized to provide evidence that we need the F-22.
The claims being made by the military and manufacturers about the advantages of the F-22's stealth capability in air-to-air combat suggest that even an F-117 with air-to-air missiles might be just as effective against 5 F-15s.
Fact is, the F-22 has never fired an actual missile in combat, and in real world combat, simply firing a missile is all it takes to announce to all the F-15s precisely what part of the sky is occupied by the F-22. At which point the F-22 pilot might as well eject.