Severe Geomagnetic Storm Research Project:

The geomagnetic field has become unsettled,
due to a low speed stream from CH192.

October 17 0631 UTC ALERT:
Geomagnetic K-index of 4

SOLAR WIND At 07:08 UT
Speed:393 km/s
Density:6.25 p/cm3

www.sec.noaa.gov...



Tonight is what is called the Hunter's Moon:
According to folklore, October's full moon is called the "Hunter's Moon" or sometimes the "Blood Moon." It gets its name from hunters who tracked and killed their prey by autumn moonlight, stockpiling food for the winter ahead. The Hunter's Moon of 2005 is due on Oct. 17th.

Garbuna Volcano has erupted

It last eruption took place 1700 years ago...

Yes, Garbuna Volcano in Papua, New Guinea has erupted today, Monday, the 17th of October 2005, with an eruption column reported of up to 25.000 ft.

5.45 S 150.03 E
Summit elevation 564 m.
Volcanolive
Garbuna is a stratovolcano


As mentioned by Valhall, we have the entire mediterranean area shaking, Pakistan hit with another 5.0+, the New Madrid just popped off 4 small quakes in a row, a new volcano busting a move near the equator, and Mt. Rainier still acting jicky.


read thread




[edit on 17-10-2005 by Ptolomeo]

No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed. A full halo CME with an origin on the back side of the sun was observed beginning at 09:30 UTC. The spot that caused it should rotate into view in 12-16 days.



Sun Spots: 13 as of 10/22/2005
Flux: 75 | Ap: 8 | Kp: 0 (03 nT)
Solar Wind: 364 km/s at 3.5 protons/cm3

Geomagnetic field took a hard bounce and solar wind density shot up. This may be the start of a geomag minor storm. Source may be the trans-equatorial coronal hole CH194 was in an Earth facing position on October 22-23.







Did a gravity wave start hurricane Wilma?

Geomagnetic field became unsettled right after the formation of TD Wilma.
weather.unisys.com...
Did a gravity wave precede the minor geomagnetic storm and trigger a tropical storm?


Cosmic rays began increasing as hurricane Wilma increased in intensity.


______________________________

Did a gravity wave cause the earthquake that hit Pakistan?
Magnitude 7.6 - PAKISTAN
2005 October 8 03:50:40 UTC



Tama Seismic Monitor
(Japanese Interferometric Gravitational-Wave Project)
tamago.mtk.nao.ac.jp...
tamago.mtk.nao.ac.jp...

Maybe we should also be looking at geomagnetic storms as an "after effect" of gravity waves and see what terresterial phenoma shows up right before the electromagnetic flux starts bouncing around?

Tropical system starting to form in west Pacific.


Flood warnings as rain sweeps UK October 24, 2005
A series of flood warnings were put in place today after heavy rain and 70mph winds swept across the UK.

Floods maroon one million, kill 14 in eastern India 25.10.05
The unseasonal rains in largely low-lying West Bengal came after the June-September monsoon season ended in India. Hundreds were killed in flooding and mudslides triggered by rains during the summer which shut down India's financial hub of Mumbai for four days.
______________________________

Some info on the current solar cycle:


Sunspot Cycle Predictions
Some blame the sun
Solar Minimum Explodes

[edit on 25-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

Nasa has some advice for astronauts what to protect in the event of a large solar flare. We could apply some of these rules to us earthly denizens, if we get hit by a mega-flare.

Researchers are making a list: Which parts of an astronaut are most sensitive to solar flares?

Mission control: "Yes. Make sure you protect your hips."

Protect your hips?

That's right. Protecting the hips may be a key to surviving solar storms. Other sensitive areas are the shoulders, spine, thighs, sternum and skull.

Why this odd list of body parts? The bones in these areas contain marrow -- the "blood factory" of the body. Delicate bone marrow cells are especially vulnerable to solar storms; a major dose of solar protons coursing through the body could wipe them out. And without these blood-forming marrow cells churning out a steady stream of new blood cells, a person would run out of blood in as little as a week. A bone marrow transplant would be required--stat!--but they don't do those on the Moon.

So to survive a solar radiation storm, your first priority must be to protect your bone marrow.

Geostorm in effect

SOLAR WIND At 14:57 UT
Speed:632 km/s
Density:5.89 p/cm

Issue Time: 2005 Nov 03 0500 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2005 Nov 03 0455 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: No
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor



The geomagnetic field was inactive to unsettled on November 2. Solar wind speed ranged between 319 and 597 (all day average 358) km/sec. The high speed stream from CH195 was observed beginning at ACE at 18:30 UTC and solar wind speed has been hovering above 600 km/sec early on Nov.3. The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active since the arrival of this stream.

Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 3-6 due to effects from CH195.

AURORA WATCH
A high-speed solar wind stream is blowing past Earth and buffeting our planet's magnetic field. Sky watchers in Canada and Alaska should be alert for auroras tonight.

[edit on 3-11-2005 by Regenmacher]

'Superflare' offers insight into gamma-ray bursts
26 February 2005
New Scientist Space



ON 27 December, a blast of gamma rays that lasted a mere quarter of a second overwhelmed detectors on many satellites orbiting Earth. Researchers have now traced the burst to a neutron star within our galaxy, and this discovery could be a clue to the origin of other gamma-ray bursts that have so far defied explanation.

The blast "was so bright, it came right through the body of the Swift satellite, even though Swift wasn't pointed at the object", says John Nousek of Pennsylvania State University in University Park. Nousek is mission director for Swift, a NASA satellite that detects gamma-ray bursts.

The outburst was followed by a fainter afterglow of gamma rays lasting for about 8 minutes, which showed a recurring signal every 7.5 seconds. This allowed scientists using the European Space Agency's Integral spacecraft to trace the source of the "superflare" to a neutron star called SGR 1806-20, ...

NASA: it is the most powerful magnet known

This object, named SGR 1806-20, is one of only ten unusual neutron stars classified as magnetars, thousands of times more magnetic than ordinary neutron stars and billions of times more magnetic than the most powerful magnets built on Earth. The strength of its magnetic field is approximately a million billion (10^15) gauss (100 billion tesla), according to a team led by Alaa Ibrahim, a doctoral candidate at George Washington University conducting research at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.


This seems really interesting and serious. How will this affect the Earth?
We will continue investigating.

Advisor wants a head count, share some ideas and make sure you all are still alive.

Research GATHERING Thread!

Thar she blows! Gamma ray burst, Triple M-class flares and a new tropical system.

GRB 051109 2005/11/09 01:12:20
This was a bright burst seen at multiple wavelengths. Swift saw a double-peaked gamma ray emission, with both peaks lasting about 20 seconds. It was also seen by Konus-WIND, which saw a long tail of emission lasting 130 seconds. The Swift X-Ray Telescope saw a fading X-ray afterglow, and the Ultraviolet/Optical Telescope detected the optical afterglow at v=16.49 just two minutes after the burst.
grb.sonoma.edu...

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2005 Nov 14 1423 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 528 km/s

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2005 Nov 14 0220 UTC

2005/11/13 14:51:00 M2.5
2005/11/14 04:21:00 M2.6
2005/11/14 14:21:00 M3.9

BIG SUNSPOT: Finally, a sunspot! After a month of low solar activity and few spots, a large active region is rounding the sun's eastern limb. The name of the sunspot is NOAA 822.


(click to enlarge)


TD#27 forms in Caribbean

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY... RADAR DATA... AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. LUCIA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER... AND ST. LUCIA REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER
...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[edit on 14-11-2005 by Regenmacher]

M6.9 quake hits extensive areas of Japan; tsunami warning issued
TOKYO — An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.9 jolted extensive areas on the Pacific side of the Hokkaido, Tohoku and Kanto areas Tuesday morning, with the Japan Meteorological Agency issuing a tsunami warning.

The warning for a tsunami up to 50 centimeters high was issued for the Pacific side of the Hokkaido and Tohoku areas. The 6:39 a.m. quake measured 3 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7 in those areas. The focus was at a shallow depth under the seabed in the Pacific some 310 kilometers east of the Oshika Peninsula in Miyagi Prefecture.



Magnitude 6.9
Date-Time Monday, November 14, 2005 at 21:38:54 (UTC)
= Coordinated Universal Time
Tuesday, November 15, 2005 at 7:38:54 AM
= local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 38.138°N, 144.886°E
Depth 29.8 km (18.5 miles)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
earthquake.usgs.gov...
www.emsc-csem.org...

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2312Z 14 NOV 2005

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR
THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE PACIFIC
ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE BULLETINS
FOR ALASKA - BRITISH COLUMBIA - WASHINGTON - OREGON - CALIFORNIA.
________________________________________________

SOLAR ACTIVITY

Another M-class flare peaked 22 minutes after quake hit.
This suggests gravity precluded flare as this flare was centered
towards the central pacific region.
2005/11/14 22:00:00 M1.0
flare start: 21:53:00
flare peak: 22:00:00
flare stop: 22:04:00
earthquake: 21:38:54

Gravity wave detected after 16:00utc


ITama Seismic Monitor
(Japanese Interferometric Gravitational-Wave Project)
tamago.mtk.nao.ac.jp...
tamago.mtk.nao.ac.jp...





[edit on 14-11-2005 by Regenmacher]

Disregard that gravity wave chart. In my zeal I failed to note the date...non-applicable.

Solar Activity

2005/11/15 17:51:00 M1.4


The name of the sunspot is NOAA 822, and it is crackling with M-class solar flares. So far the explosions have not been Earth-directed, but that could change later this week as the sun turns the 'spot to face our planet. Stay tuned.
_______________________

Side note...tidal effect is high, full moon tonight.


According to folklore, tonight's full moon is the Frosty Moon.

The big sunspot NOAA0822 Catania has appeared on the sunside, opposite the Earth. Measured from one side to another, it is bigger than Jupiter, around 140.000 km. Furthermore, constant explossions are taking place.

Not long ago, we published our first Research Report about the solar activity in relation with the Volcanoes. Up to now, it has been clear that solar flares interfere the Earth and provoke reactions (most of them unkown yet).

With regard to earthquakes, solar flares and explossions affect the Earth, the Planet, as well as its habitants.

The solar activity, right now, can be responsible for most part of the changes of the Earth´s clima and human´s behaviour, including violence, depression, lack of control...
Avoid exposure to the sun. If you feel weak, lazy, dizzy, headache, sleep, painful eyes... Avoid sunbaths, drink a lot of water and try to rest indoors.

Solar explossions could be affecting all kind of life beings on Earth and our clima, but also the Planet itself.

When solar activity increases, so does micro activity.
Therefore, we will be checking the Earth´s seismic activity during these days and will compare it with our solar data.

For instance, an important area in California had hundreds of micro quakes between the 14th and the 16th of November.
USGS earthquakes

Furthermore, other areas are predisposed to earthquakes.
Areas we will have to watch more carefully: Japan (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku), Alaska, California, etc.





Interesting article about the link between changes in the Earth's spin rate and the activity of the Sun

M-Class Flare: 2005/11/18 00:34:00 M1.3

Strong earthquake rocks northern Chile and Bolivia

SANTIAGO, Chile - A strong earthquake rocked northern Chile and parts of Bolivia on Thursday, sending residents fleeing out of buildings and temporarily knocking out telephones and electricity. There were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries.

Magnitude 6.9 - POTOSI, BOLIVIA
2005 November 17 19:26:49 UTC



[edit on 17-11-2005 by Regenmacher]

Earthquake struck central China less than 24 hours after the geomagnetic field became unsettled due to coronal hole #199.

Magnitude 5.5 - HUBEI-JIANGXI BORDER REGION, CHINA
2005 November 26 00:49:38 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2005 Nov 25 0129 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: Yes

The geomagnetic field was quiet to ative on November 25. Solar wind speed ranged between 389 and 505 (all day average 442) km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from CH199.

Since that date, not only the solar activity has continued but also the quakes and volcano activity.


MAP 6.2 2005/11/30
6.244 123.977 33.6 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

MAP 5.1 2005/11/30 05:41:43 -9.698 -79.630 22.8
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN PERU

MAP 5.5 2005/11/30 04:54:33 13.921 146.167 54.5
MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

MAP 5.1 2005/11/29 03:02:23 -13.380 167.193 198.0
VANUATU

MAP 6.0 2005/11/28 16:41:33 20.286 146.037 42.0
MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

MAP 5.6 2005/11/28 16:33:22 -29.268 -70.893 48.4
COQUIMBO, CHILE

MAP 5.0 2005/11/28 12:40:35 -14.901 -172.604 49.8
SAMOA ISLANDS

MAP 5.0 2005/11/28 06:58:06 -8.227 158.454 94.7
SOLOMON ISLANDS

MAP 5.8 2005/11/28 03:28:13 -62.475 154.820 10.0
BALLENY ISLANDS REGION

MAP 5.1 2005/11/28 00:16:48 1.192 97.222 30.0
NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

MAP 5.7 2005/11/27 23:31:38 1.230 97.252 25.7
NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

MAP 5.5 2005/11/27 16:30:37 26.862 55.831 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
MAP 5.1 2005/11/27 11:13:10 26.765 55.801 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
MAP 6.0 2005/11/27 10:22:19 26.801 55.855 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN

MAP 5.3 2005/11/26 16:02:45 52.548 159.346 41.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
MAP 5.3 2005/11/26 15:56:58 38.152 38.850 19.6 EASTERN TURKEY
MAP 5.2 2005/11/26 00:49:37 29.666 115.705 10.0 HUBEI-JIANGXI BORDER REGION, CHINA


forgetting the not so strong earthquakes we had, plus those not mentioned (for instance, the one mentioned by Worldwatcher occurred today in Taiwan Read the ATS thread )

Solar Activity on the Increase

November 29: A partial halo CME was observed over the southern hemisphere and the northwest limb after the C4 LDE in region 10824. The core ejected material was first observed over the southwest limb in LASCO C2 images at 17:30 and in C3 at 18:18 UTC while a more diffuse front appeared soon afterwards over the south pole, the southeast quadrant and some of the northwest quadrant.

C-class flare: 2005/11/29 17:09:00 C4.0



Partial halo CME from C4.0 on right side.



November 30:
M-class flare 2005/11/30 17:52:00 M1.4

Geomagnetic field has become unsettled:
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2005 Nov 30 1014 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: Yes

Solat Wind Increased a full day earlier than expected. Earth has entered a high-speed solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole on the sun.

Wind Speed at 22:51 UT
Speed:670 km/s
Density:3.78 p/cm
umtof.umd.edu...

Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on November 30 - December 2 due to a high speed stream from CH200. The CME observed on November 29 could reach Earth embedded within the high speed stream and may be difficult to discern. The M1.4 today wasn't visible on SOHO images, although its impact should arrive on the 3rd.

Partial halo cme on left, will impact earth in 3 days or less.

6.5 M-class flare
2005/12/02 02:52:00 M6.5

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2005 Dec 02 0242 UTC
Maximum Time: 2005 Dec 02 0252 UTC
End Time: 2005 Dec 02 0300 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.5
Location: S02E18
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2005 Dec 01 2332 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Solar flares:

• 2005/12/02 10:12:00 M7.8
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2005 Dec 02 1026 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 824 km/s
Earthquake Magnitude 6.5 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2005 December 2 13:13:12 UTC

• 2005/12/02 20:30:00 M1.0
• 2005/12/02 21:19:00 M2.0

Sunspot 10826 is now in geoeffective position: The trailing and intermediate spot section is merging, many new small spots have emerged and a very long inversion line appears to be developing. This means strong X class flares will become possible.



EXPANDING SUNSPOT: Sunspot 826 is growing quickly. In only two days it has ballooned from a barely-visible speck to a sprawling group almost as wide as the planet Jupiter:


The magnetic field of a fast-changing sunspot like 826 can easily become unstable and explode. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% chance of X-class solar flares during the next 24 hours. Since the spot is still expanding this chance increases by the hour.

Geomagnetic Storm: G1 level



Not sure what is causing this geomagnetic storm. Soho's solar wind monitor registered a bow shock at 11 Dec 2005 1132UTC, but solar activity has been low and no obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.


umtof.umd.edu...
sec.noaa.gov...

It's rather puzzling....

A large quake has occured after the solar bow shock in the volcanic region near Australia:
MAG 6.5 2005/12/11 14:20:44 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA