Severe Geomagnetic Storm Research Project:

A fast semi-halo CME occured late yesterday Dec.29, and appeared above
the LASCO C2 occulter at about 19:00UT in the SE quadrant. There was no
corresponding X-ray event, but EIT imagery shows an expanding arcade
forming above the extended filament channel now located just South-East
of disc center, probably indicating a filament eruption.

The speed of this CME can be estimated at 1500km/s, which corresponds to a travel time of about 2 days (+/- 12 hours).
It may thus trigger a geomagnetic storm at Earth late on Dec.31 or on Jan.1st, 2006.

SIDC

Using more recent data, the Cactus CME tracing algorithm indicates a
speed of about 500km/s for the CME of Dec.29 announced yesterday, i.e.
much lower than the early estimate. Therefore, its possible arrival is
postponed to Jan.2, and it will be much less geoeffective, probably
causing only temporary active geomagnetic conditions. Outside this
possible transient disturbance, the geomagnetic field is will remain
mostly quiet.

The solar activity remains very low, and the small sunspot
groups currently present on the solar disc can only produce occasional C
flares.
The solar wind speed, as mentioned above, has decayed furher down to 500km/s and the geomagnetic activity is expected to settled down to quiet levels over at least the next 2 days. Given its slow speed, the CME of Dec.29 could at most induce temporary active conditions on day 3 (Jan.2).

SIDC

The CME due to the partial filament eruption seems to have
arrived during the latter part of yesterday, though the geomagnetic
reponse was small due to a predominantly southward IMF. The solar wind
speed is steady around 450km/s with a small and mainly northward Bz.

Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet, with slight
potential for short term active periods due to over-expansion of a fast
stream from a small coronal hole to the SW of disk centre. Solar
conditions are expected to remain quiet.

Old NOAA AR 0838 (Catania 86)
yielded a C1.5 flare before rotating over the W limb, while of the
current on-disk regions AR 0841 (Catania 89) holds the greatest
potential for an isolated C-class flare.
For more information, please, visit sidc.be..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> SIDC

In regards to the CME: solar wind shock was observed at 13:35 UTC at SOHO as the CME observed on December 29 arrived. This CME has so far not been geoeffective, as it hasn´t caused a geomagnetic disturbance. The interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly northwards since the arrival of the CME.

Coronal hole coming into play by the 4th and should increase geomagnetic activity.

I'm still around, just busy....

Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
The IMF has roughly doubled its intensity over the past 24hrs indicating
that we may possibly soon enter a recurrent fast stream, though other
parameters are yet to show any signatures. Solar activity is expected to
remain low to very low, though NOAA AR 0843 (Catania 90) holds slight
potential for an isolated flare before rotating over the W limb this
weekend.
Source


Well, it is supposed that we will have an active weekend. Just check the Earth´s events to compare and match.

Happy New Year...
I always count on you, Regenmacher

While lightning in a hurricane is not unheard of, three storms in the 2005 hurricane season produced more lightning that what is normal and scientists are baffled to as the reason. But some are suggesting that solar activity could have been a big factor for this unusual lightning activity.

Lots of Lightning in 2005 Hurricanes Baffles Scientists

"Generally there's not a lot of lightning in the eye-wall region," he says. "So when people see lightning there, they perk up — they say, okay, something's happening."

Indeed, the electric fields above Emily were among the strongest ever measured by the aircraft’s sensors over any storm. "We observed steady fields in excess of 8 kilovolts per meter," says Blakeslee. "That is huge—comparable to the strongest fields we would expect to find over a large land-based 'mesoscale' thunderstorm."

[edit on 1-10-2006 by worldwatcher]

Very interesting, Worldwatcher.
Seems as if people and some scientists are getting more aware of how solar storms affect us.

BTW, the solar quiet alert has ended. We are in a SOLAR STORM ALERT.

The small transequatorial coronal hole is now situated near the central meridian and is expected to send a high speed solar wind stream towards the earth, arriving here in 2 days.

A CME has also been observed this night (first appearance in c2 @ 01:54), the estimated speed is around 500 km/s. It is mostly directed westward, but it probably originated from the \'sigmoid\' just SW of the coronal hole, thus it might have an earth-directed component. Goes-12 X-ray data, reports a LDE A7.1 flare.

We thus expect unsetteled to active conditions on 15-17 January.
Source: Solar Influences Data analysis Center, Belgium

Hmm. Do solar storms explain why there now is lightning during snow storms? ...Very unusual in my experience.

El Zappo, Earth seeks equilibrium in charged atmosphere

A thinning and warmer upper atmosphere, plus a greater amount of ionized particles in the ionosphere would lead to an increase in electrical discharges within terrestrial storms. Increases in greenhouse gases change the fluid dynamics of the weather and the sun has been in somewhat of an abnormal cycle. The x-class megaflares have saturated the Van Allen belts with record amounts of charged particles. Can throw in the denser galactic dust cloud we are drifting into on our way around the Milky Way as a mitigating factor too.

Ulysses sees Galactic Dust on the rise
sci.esa.int...

Old sol seems to be finally falling into its dormant mode as per the norm of the solar minimum. Chart: graphical comparison of solar cycles 21, 22 and 23 (current cycle is 23) www.dxlc.com...

Thundersnow may not such a rare treat anymore, as we enter this brave new world of warmer global weather and galactic anomalies.

Great explanation and links regenmacher. Thanks.

A question: Are increased levels of ionized particles in the upper atmosphere only due to global warming and solar flares? Could there not be more factors contributing? Like changes in the earth's magnetosphere for other reasons, Ie., the shift of the earth's axis following last winter's earthquake/tsunami?

Could probably assume there's an infinite amount of factors, then it boils down to how much can a human mind comprehend and correlate before it becomes overwhelmed.. All things are connected in some form


Solar-cast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 13-15 becoming quiet to active during the latter half of January 15 until January 17 due to effects from coronal hole 205 and maybe be effected by a coronal mass ejection which erupted late on January 12.

On January, 16th - Catania# 97 & 98 NOAA 0846 NOAA 0847 were increasing quickly from the sunside.

On January, 17th, the Earth faced strong solar wind generating active geomagnetic conditions.


Today, the 21st, Catania sunspot group 99, NOAA AR 0848, is continuing to grow and to develop a more complicated configuration of the photospheric
magnetic field.

external image

We thus expect C-flares to occur in this group.
An equatorial coronal hole is now situated at the central meridian.

We expect the fast flow from it to arrive to the Earth around January
23-24, producing a geomagnetic disturbance up to the minor storm level.

The Earth is currently inside the slow solar wind flow with an average
magnetic field, so the probability for a geomagnetic disturbance in the
next 24 hours is low.
[url=http://sidc.be/ Source: SIDC - Belgium [/url]

According to the above, we can understand the Earth´s increase of seismic activity during these days.
Everything is related...







[edit on 21-1-2006 by Ptolomeo]

Catania sunspot group 99, NOAA AR 0848, is continuing to grow
and to develop a more complicated configuration of the photospheric
magnetic field.

We thus expect C-flares to occur in this group.

An equatorial coronal hole is now situated at the central meridian.

We expect the fast flow from it to arrive to the Earth around January
23-24, producing a geomagnetic disturbance up to the minor storm level.


Source SDC - Belgium

The fast wind coming of the recurrent coronal hole that passed
the central meridian on Jan 22, arrived at the L1 point. ACE measured a
wind speed of 600 km/s.
The Bz component of the IMF went down to -10nT.
Active geomagnetic conditions are possible.
Active Region 0848 produced
several C-flares on Jan 22.
More C-flaring activity is possible.


sidc.be..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> Source SIDC-Belgium

Warning, January the 26th:

External Source sidc.be..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> SIDC - Belgium
Active region Catania#99 (NOAA0848) is decaying and has now a
simpler beta magnetic configuration. Therefore, we expect a low solar
activity with only a slight chance of C flare.

The geomagnetic activity rose temporarily to active levels in the last
few hours due to a new rise of the solar wind speed, associated with a
negative Bz, that was not expected.

external image

Now, the speed has stabilized at 550km/s, with the Bz component fluctuating between + and - 10 nT.

Although, the geomagnetic field is now back to unsettled levels, we
predict unsettled to active conditions for the next 24 hours, then
followed by a decay to quiet to unsettled conditions.

Information from January the 27th:
The solar wind speed knows a revival and climbed up to 650 km/s.

The cause is possibly the last part of the recurrent coronal hole which
is ready to rotate over the westlimb. K_p went up to 6 last night.Geomagnetic conditions are calm now, we expect no disturbances the
coming 48 hours.

------End of solar and geomagnetic bulletin.

The geomagnetic activity has been high due to the solar wind. The Earth inclined towards the South producing Aurora.
Kp Index was 6!

external image

We have to point out the 7.7 earthquake in BANDA SEA (Indonesia) on the 27th which should be one of the effects on Earth.

Furthermore, the increase of the Kp level has elevated the risk of active geomagnetic field. The solar wind is high. Therefore we should consider us being in an ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC ALERT for the next 6 to 12 hours having possibly other kind of events during that period of time.

For those who do not remember the meaning of a Kp 6, here is some information from the NOAA

Considered a Moderate G2 level
Can cause:

Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.

Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.

Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)

Magnitude 7.7 earthquake rocks eastern Indonesia
7.7 2006/01/27 16:58:49 BANDA SEA



Coincidence? The timing it rather remarkable considering the geomagnetic field as been quiet for some time and we haven't had quakes of this magnitude since september of last year.

With only a small plage and no sunspot, the solar activity is
expected to remain very low.

Active geomagnetic conditions were
triggered yesterday by a temporary Southward rotation of the interplanetary magnetic field Now, the N-S field component Bz is back
near 0, while the solar wind speed stays below 370 km/s. We thus expect
that the geomagnetic field will remain quiet to unsettled over the next
days.

Source: Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium, Royal Observatory of Belgium

[edit on 8-2-2006 by Ptolomeo]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1211
Issue Time: 2006 Feb 21 2355 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1210
Valid From: 2006 Feb 21 0711 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2006 Feb 22 1600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

February 21-24: Coronal hole (CH213) will cause the geomagnetic field to have unsettled to active periods.



Watch for quakes! Rumors of the big one in Socal/Frisco been making the rounds again.
quake.usgs.gov...


[edit on 21-2-2006 by Regenmacher]

Magnitude: 7.5
Date-Time: Wednesday, February 22, 2006 at 22:19:08 (UTC)
Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles)
Region: MOZAMBIQUE

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Magnitude 5.3 2006/02/23 02:22:08 MOZAMBIQUE
Magnitude 5.4 2006/02/23 01:23:42 MOZAMBIQUE

Looks like another instance of an unsettled geomagnetic field makes a large quake.


[edit on 22-2-2006 by Regenmacher]

•NASA Aids in Resolving Long Standing Solar Cycle Mystery -NASA
•Scientists Say Next Solar Cycle Will Be Strong but Delayed -NYTimes

Meanwhile the sun is virtually spotless:



Solar Minimum has Arrived -NASA